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Tropical Storm 30W (Kong-Rey), #40 FINAL

Kong-Rey homes in on Korea’s southeast coast; Sasebo remains in TCCOR 1-C.

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: October 5, 2018

1 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 6, Japan/Korea time: Tropical Storm Kong-Rey made landfall about 9 a.m. near Chinhae Naval Base, sideswiped Pusan, Daegu and Pohang with 63-mph gusts and is now headed back over water into the Sea of Japan. Sasebo Naval Base has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). This is the final report on Kong-Rey.


6:30 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 6, Japan/Korea time: Tropical Storm Kong-Rey continues to take aim at the southeast coast of Korea, making a wide arc around Sasebo Naval Base, though not wide enough to prevent Fleet Activities Sasebo from entering Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution); winds between 40 and 57 mph are occurring on station.

 

Kong-Rey remains forecast to pass 120 miles northwest of Sasebo at 7 a.m. and 13 miles north of Pusan and 18 miles north of Chinhae Naval Base three hours later. This should all be over by afternoon.


11:30 p.m. Friday, Oct. 5, Japan/Korea time: Tropical Storm Kong-Rey has picked up forward speed, motoring almost due north at 22 mph, still packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts. But the forecast track continues to edge away from Sasebo Naval Base and toward Korea’s Area IV U.S. bases.

If Kong-Rey continues to move as forecast, it’s due to pass 132 miles northwest of Sasebo at 5 a.m., then 18 miles southeast of Daegu, 39 miles northwest of Pusan and 14 miles north of Chinhae Naval Base between 9 and 11 a.m. Saturday.

Area IV, Chinhae and Sasebo remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. A note that 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph sustained winds TCCOR 1-E (emergency), at which point all outdoor activity is prohibited.


9 p.m. Friday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo and Korea’s Area IV installations have directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours. Closest point of approach to Sasebo is forecast for 126 miles northwest at 6 a.m. and 10 miles north of Chinhae Naval Base in Korea at 9 a.m. Saturday.

                                                                                                                                              

3 p.m. Friday, Oct. 5, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa are in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All Clear. Kong-Rey has departed the Okinawa area and destructive winds are not forecast to return.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Noon Friday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan and Area IV U.S. bases in southeastern Korea could see a gusty, rainy weekend as Tropical Storm Kong-Rey makes its forecast pass at mid-morning Saturday, packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center.

If Kong-Rey keeps moving as forecast, it’s due to pass 41 miles southeast of Daegu and its three Army posts and K-2 Air Base, nine miles southeast of Chinhae Naval Base and 20 miles northwest of Pusan between 10 and 11 a.m. Saturday, about when it’s forecast to make landfall.

Area IV’s Be Aware announcement stated to prepare for possible destructive winds between 6 a.m. and 7 p.m. Saturday.

As for southwestern Japan, Sasebo Naval Base remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2, with TCCOR 1 expected to be issued at 8 p.m. Kong-Rey is forecast to pass 121 miles northwest of Sasebo at 6 a.m. Saturday.

Sasebo’s weather forecast still calls for maximum 40- to 46-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts at mid-morning Saturday. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.


11 a.m. Friday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni and U.S. bases on Okinawa have set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are not forecast to occur at Iwakuni. Tropical Storm Kong-Rey is due to pass 173 miles northwest at 1 p.m. Saturday. Maximum 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts are forecast.

As for Okinawa, destructive winds have also come and gone, but there’s the potential for the back side of Kong-Rey to produce winds strong enough to warrant return to TCCOR 1-C or higher. Wait until the All Clear is issued before venturing outside.


9:30 a.m. Friday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.

 


8 a.m. Friday, Oct. 5, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Kong-Rey is moving on and sustained 58-mph winds and 69-mph gusts are no longer occurring.

 

STAY INDOORS. Staff civil and first responders are out surveying damage and creating safe zones around fallen trees or power lines. Buildings could be damaged, there could be flooding, etc. Wait until the all clear is sounded.


7 a.m. Friday, Oct. 5, Japan/Korea time: The closest point of approach for Kong-Rey to Okinawa has come and gone. Kong-Rey has also been downgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and it’s now on the way toward Korea’s southeast coast and southwestern Japan.

Okinawa’s top winds were 62 nautical mph, or 71 statute mph, at 1:17 a.m. Okinawa is no longer experiencing 50-knot or 58-mph sustained winds, but the potential remains for gusts up to 69 mph; therefore, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1E. It won’t be too long before TCCOR 1-R is declared.

But that won’t mean it’s safe to go out and about your business. Staff civil and first responders must go out first, as they did after Trami, and survey for damage and establish safe zones. Like last week, there may be downed trees and power lines, building damage, flooding, etc. Stay indoors until the all clear or seasonal TCCOR 4 resumes.

Kong-Rey next puts Korea’s Area IV installations and Sasebo Naval Base along Japan’s southwest coast in its sights.

If Kong-Rey keeps moving as forecast, it’s due to pass 114 miles southeast of Sasebo at 7 a.m. Saturday, then 57 miles southeast of Daegu’s myriad Army camps and K-2 Air Base, 7 miles southeast of Pusan and 18 miles southeast of Chinhae Naval Base between 10 and 11 a.m. Winds will still be steep, 52-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo, Area IV and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni remain in TCCOR 3; those could upgrade sometime this morning. Here is Sasebo’s forecast: peak 40- to 46-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts are forecast early Saturday morning.


9 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 4, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency). Destructive 58-mph winds or greater are occurring. All outside activity is prohibited.


6 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 4, Japan/Korea time: Here is the updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  •  Onset of 58-mph sustained winds = 6 p.m. Thursday.
  •  Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts = 2 a.m. Friday.
  •  Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained = 10 a.m. Friday.
  •  Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained = 5 p.m. Friday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution); Weather flight official said destructive 58-mph sustained winds are expected within the next 11 hours.

                                                                                                                                                                 

6 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 4, Japan/Korea time: Well, here we go again, Okinawa. Time for more wind gusts and rainbands, with what’s left over headed for the southeast coast of Korea and southwestern Japan, courtesy of Kong-Rey, which stubbornly continues to hold on to Category 1-equivalent typhoon status.

At 3 p.m., Kong-Rey was 152 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, starting to pick up forward speed, moving north-northwest at 15 mph, still packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. If Kong-Rey keeps moving as forecast, it’s due to pass 95 miles west-southwest of Kadena at midnight Thursday.

An updated wind-forecast timeline will be posted as soon as available. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution), meaning 40-mph sustained winds are already occurring. TCCOR 1-E will be issued when destructive 58-mph sustained winds are occurring.

Kong-Rey should skedaddle out of the Okinawa area rather quickly, then curve north and northeast toward the Tsushima Strait, making a near-direct hit on Pusan and passing 28 miles southeast of Chinhae Naval Base, on Korea’s southeast coast, at 10 a.m. Saturday. Area IV bases in Korea remain in TCCOR 3.

And southwestern Japan could see some nastiness as well. Kong-Rey is forecast to pass 107 miles northwest of Sasebo Naval Base at 7 a.m. Saturday and 164 miles northwest of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni about four hours later as a severe tropical storm, packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts. Sasebo and Iwakuni also remain in TCCOR 3.

Area IV’s latest Be Aware announcement states that Area IV bases can expect between 4 to 6 inches of rain, along with gusts up to 75 mph.

Here is the latest forecast for Fleet Activities Sasebo, which calls for peak 46- to 52-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts at mid-morning Saturday.

                                                                                                                                                                 

3 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in Japan and Daegu Area IV in Korea have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

                                                                                                                                                      

Noon Thursday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Typhoon Kong-Rey has weakened sharply and could diminish into a severe tropical storm by evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

That doesn’t mean Okinawa is out of the woods yet. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C, and there is still a chance of upgrade to TCCOR 1-E if 58-mph sustained winds are monitored on U.S. bases.

Here is the updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 6 p.m. Thursday
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts: 2 a.m. Friday
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: Noon Friday
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Friday

At 9 a.m., Kong-Rey was 235 miles south of Kadena Air Base, tracking northwest at 9 mph and had diminished to Category 1-equivalent status, 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts. If it continues moving as forecast, Kong-Rey could weaken to 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts by mid-evening.

It also means a bit better news for the southeast coast of Korea. Kong-Rey remains forecast to pass 41 miles southeast of Chinhae Naval Base and 18 miles southeast of Pusan between 11 a.m. and noon Saturday, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts, a bit less than previously forecast.
 

 


12:30 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 4, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Sustained 40-mph winds are now occuring. Exchanges, commissaries and other bases services are shut down. Non-essential personnel are dismissed from work and sent home.

 


7 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 7 a.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 6 p.m. Thursday.
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 75-mph gusts: 2 a.m. Friday.
  • Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 1 p.m. Friday.
  • Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Friday.

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Note that 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph sustained winds TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

If Kong-Rey continues moving as forecast, it’s due to pass 104 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 2 a.m. Friday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts — a Category 2-equivalent intensity. Okinawa remains well within the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s projected 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind band, but just outside the 64-knot (75-mph) band.

Once Kong-Rey exits the Okinawa area, it remains forecast to gradually weaken as it picks up forward speed and moves rapidly north, then northeast, passing 13 miles southeast of Pusan and 26 miles southeast of Chinhae Naval Base at 3 p.m. Saturday, still packing Category 1-equivalent 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts.


9:30 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 3, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours. School closed for students on Thursday.


7 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 3, Japan time: Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  •  Onset of 40-mph sustained winds = 9 a.m. Thursday.
  •  Onset of 58-mph sustained winds = 6 p.m. Thursday.
  •  Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 75-mph gusts = 4 a.m. Friday.
  • Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained = 1 p.m. Friday.
  • Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained = 9 p.m. Friday.

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Note that 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph sustained winds TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

If Typhoon Kong-Rey continues moving as forecast, it’s due to pass 115 miles west-southeast of Kadena Air Base at 4 a.m. Friday. Okinawa should be well within Kong-Rey’s 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind band, but outside the 64-knot (75-mph) band.

Kong-Rey continued to be forecast to curve northeast, passing 13 miles south of Pusan on Korea’s southeast coast at 6 p.m. Sunday still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it tracks rapidly into the Sea of Japan.
                                                                                                                                                               

3:50 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 3, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.

                                                                                                                                                                      

1:15 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 3, Japan time: Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 8 a.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 5 p.m. Thursday.
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 75-mph gusts: 6 a.m. Friday.
  • Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 1 p.m. Friday.
  • Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 10 p.m. Friday.

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Note that 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph sustained winds TCCOR 1-E (emergency).


Noon Wednesday, Oct. 3, Japan time: After a two-day life as a super typhoon, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has downgraded Kong-Rey to regular typhoon status. But it remains a significant Category 4-equivalent beast, packing 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts.

It won’t retain that intensity as it traverses further north toward cooler air and sea water. If Kong-Rey keeps moving as forecast, it’s due to pass 112 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center. Okinawa remains well within Kong-Rey’s forecast 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind band.

Kong-Rey then remains forecast to head northeast, clipping the southeast coast of the Korean peninsula and making a direct hit on Chinhae Naval Base at 6 p.m. Saturday, still packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts as it rapidly tracks into the Sea of Japan.

An updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa will be posted when it becomes available.


6:30 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 3, Japan time: Kong-Rey continues to cling to super-typhoon status, at least for a few more hours. The new Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track edges Kong-Rey a bit closer to Okinawa than previously reported, which means higher winds, not in the Trami category, but not good news in the wake of the damage Trami left behind.

If Kong-Rey continues moving as forecast, it should weaken as it reaches relatively cooler waters, passing 108 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 6 a.m. Friday packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center. Not only should most of Okinawa be inside JTWC’s forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind band, but the 64-knot (75-mph) band appears to edge closer as well.

Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 5 a.m. Thursday
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 7 p.m. Thursday
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 75-mph gusts: 6 a.m. Friday
  • Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 1 p.m. Friday
  • Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 10 p.m. Friday

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Note that 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph sustained winds TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Once out of the Okinawa area, Kong-Rey is forecast to curve northeast, remaining just offshore as it brushes the southeastern coast of Korea, passing just 14 miles southeast of Pusan at 10 p.m. Saturday, still packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts as it rapidly tracks toward the Sea of Japan.


12:30 a.m. Wednesday, Oct., 3, Japan time:  Here’s the initial wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa for Super Typhoon Kong-Rey, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds = 6 a.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds = 10 p.m. Thursday.
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts = 9 a.m. Friday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained = 3 p.m. Friday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained = 11 p.m. Friday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Note that 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph sustained TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Kong-Rey remains at dangerous Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, but will likely shed that status in the next several hours and keep weakening as it heads north. It remains forecast to pass 130 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 9 a.m. Friday.

Once past Okinawa, Kong-Rey is forecast to curve north and northeast toward the south coast of the Korean peninsula, with landfall forecast for late evening Saturday.


7:30 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 2, Japan time: Here’s the initial wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa for Super Typhoon Kong-Rey, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Onset of 40-mph sustained winds = 6 a.m. Thursday.
Onset of 58-mph sustained winds = 9 p.m. Thursday.

Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts = 8 a.m. Friday.
Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained = 3 p.m. Friday.
Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained = 11 p.m. Friday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Note that 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph sustained TCCOR 1-E (emergency).


6 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 2, Japan time: As if Okinawa hasn’t had enough problems in the last week, now Super Typhoon Kong-Rey’s latest forecast track has it wobbling back toward the island.

Closest point of approach is now projected for 137 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 8 a.m. Friday as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center. Kadena and much of southwestern Okinawa appears to be well within Kong-Rey’s 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind band.

If there’s any good news at all to this, it’s that Kong-Rey is still projected to pass further away from Okinawa than Trami did last week, when the eye of the storm passed right over the island. And it should not be as strong as Trami was. But it’s still a powerful storm, and who knows how much closer – or further away – to or from Okinawa Kong-Rey might come.

A wind-forecast timeline will be posted as soon as available.

                                                                                                                                                                        

5 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 2, Japan time: Here we go again. U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.


Noon Tuesday, Oct. 2, Japan time: Super Typhoon Kong-Rey has peaked at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It should retain that intensity for the next 12 hours, then weaken rapidly as it continues heading northwest in Okinawa’s general direction.

If Kong-Rey continues moving as forecast, it’s due to pass closer to Okinawa than previously reported — 164 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 7 a.m. Friday, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center. Kadena and the southwestern edges of Okinawa could be just inside Kong-Rey’s JTWC-forecast destructive 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands.

This should not be an instant replay of Super Typhoon Trami a week ago, but still an intense storm nonetheless. Assuming Kong-Rey keeps on its current course, accelerated Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness are possible, along with wind gusts, some severe, along with rain bands. Here’s Windfinder’s projections, as of 11 a.m. Tuesday.

There’s still a pretty vast spread among model solutions, with GFS depicting a track just west of Okinawa and NAVGEM brushing China’s east coast. GFS’ forecast ensemble’s best track takes Kong-Rey over Miyako Island, while CMC continues favoring a track closer to Okinawa.

Jebi, Mangkhut, Trami and now Kong-Rey. Four of the last five named storms have each reached Category 5-equivalent super-typhoon intensity. All told, 30 numbered storms have developed in the northwest Pacific this season, with just under two months left in the season.

The average number of storms per six-month season is 32. This year, the northwest Pacific is on pace to exceed the 40 in 1979, which included Typhoon Tip, the strongest storm ever recorded in this part of the world.


6 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 2, Japan time: Kong-Rey has been upgraded to a super typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning center, becoming the sixth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season.

It’s forecast to reach Category 5-equivalent status and keep tracking west of Okinawa before curving northeast toward the Korean peninsula’s southwest coast.

At 3 a.m., Kong-Rey was 735 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, headed northwest at 9 mph, packing 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center. Typhoon-force winds extend 60 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 205 miles according to the National Weather Service on Guam. It’s forecast to peak at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts this afternoon.

If Kong-Rey continues moving as forecast, it’s due to weaken to Category 2-equivalent status, 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center, but pass a good 193 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 6 a.m. Friday, with Okinawa just outside Kong-Rey’s forecast 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind band. Still gusty and rainy, but not as bad as Trami last week.

Kong-Rey is next due to curve northeast, with landfall possible early Sunday morning near Mokpo along Korea’s southwestern coast as a Category 1-equivalent storm, 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts.

There remains quite the spread among model solutions -- nearly 800 miles, according to JTWC.


10:15 p.m. Monday, Oct. 1, Japan time: Typhoon Kong-Rey is closing in on becoming the sixth super typhoon of the season; at 9 p.m., Kong-Rey was packing 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts, and is projected to peak at 150-mph sustained and 184-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Tuesday.

Typhoon-force winds extend 60 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 205 miles, according to the National Weather Service on Guam

But Kong-Rey remains forecast to weaken rapidly from that point as it heads north, passing 175 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at 10 a.m. Friday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center. Kadena and southwestern Okinawa remain at the edge of Kong-Rey’s forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind band.

Model guidance remains divided on how close Kong-Rey might pass by Okinawa. The GFS and CMC  forecast ensembles each depict northeast curves after passing west of Okinawa, with best tracks each navigating the Tsushima Strait into the Sea of Japan.


4 p.m. Monday, Oct. 1, Japan time: Forecast models and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track continue to show Typhoon Kong-Rey passing west of Okinawa later this week. From there, the Korean peninsula’s southeast coast and perhaps Sasebo Naval Base could be in for some effects as well.

If Kong-Rey continues moving as forecast, it’s due to pass 167 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base at about 10 a.m. Friday, still packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts but at storm’s center. At the moment, it looks as if Kadena and southwestern parts of Okinawa might be right at the edge of Kong-Rey’s 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind band.

Much depends on precisely where Kong-Rey ends up going; it’s still very early in a storm’s life and forecast ensembles remain vastly spread. GFS ensemble’s best track agrees on a path west of Okinawa and through the Tsushima Strait into the Sea of Japan (East Sea). CMC ensemble favors a track closer to Okinawa and just north of Sasebo.

It’s also way too early to make a call on what kind of winds Okinawa can expect, though the GFS-based Windfinder.com calls for a Friday much like last Friday.
 


6:45 a.m. Monday, Oct. 1, Japan time: The bad news is, Kong-Rey is forecast to peak as the sixth super typhoon of the season, 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Tuesday.

The good news is, Kong-Rey is also forecast to weaken markedly as it approaches Okinawa, and pass some 204 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 7 a.m. Friday as a Category 2-equivalent storm, 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts.

But those winds are at storm’s center. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track for the moment has Okinawa outside of Kong-Rey’s destructive wind bands. Still early. Stay tuned.


12:40 a.m. Monday, Oct. 1, Japan time: Better news for Okinawa, which could use the break after getting pounded by Typhoon Trami. The latest forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Typhoon Kong-Rey passing much further west of Okinawa than previously reported.

That doesn’t mean Okinawa is completely out of the woods regarding Kong-Rey. But passing 193 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 11 a.m. Friday is much better than before. And for the moment, it may be possible for Okinawa to be just outside Kong-Rey’s forecast destructive wind bands.

Young storm, Kong-Rey remains, though. Much could change in the days leading up to Friday, as there still remains some disparity among the GFS forecast ensemble and the CMC forecast ensemble, which remain all over the place. Stay tuned.


6:15 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Kong-Rey has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

It remains forecast to peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Tuesday and pass 114 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 3 a.m. Friday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts, with Okinawa projected to be well inside Kong-Rey’s 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind bands, six days after dealing with Trami.

There remains a spread among model solutions, with the GFS track just west of Okinawa and GEM favoring a track east of the island. The Global Forecast System and Canadian Meteorological Center forecast each show similar disparity, though their best tracks appear to go near Okinawa.


Noon Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Kong-Rey could become a typhoon by Sunday evening and remains forecast to peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts by mid-morning Tuesday, Category 4-equivalent strength.

But that’s well before it approaches land. If there’s a silver lining to this potential threat to Okinawa, Kong-Rey’s latest forecast track takes it further west of Okinawa than did Trami – 122 miles west-southwest at 6 a.m. Friday with 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center. Yes, Okinawa appears to be inside Kong-Rey’s forecast 50-knot wind bands, just a question of how fierce the winds and rainbands get.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All Clear following Trami’s passage; that should revert to seasonal TCCOR 4 shortly, then once again, the process of upgrading TCCORs resumes as Kong-Rey approaches.
 


9 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: No doubt that Tropical Storm Kong-Rey will make its way into Okinawa’s neighborhood this weekend. The question being, how close will it come? And will it simply add to the massive damage already inflicted by Typhoon Trami?

It’s still a few days away, and Okinawa will at least have that time to catch its breath and hopefully make some infrastructure repair before the next heavy predictions hit.

If Kong-Rey continues moving as forecast, it should pass about 130 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at about 3 a.m. Friday, packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center. The GFS model-based Windfinder.com indicates another full day of heavy winds and rain on Friday.

But it’s still early in the life of a young storm. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects a spread of 575 miles among model solutions. Kong-Rey could head any number of ways. Stay tuned.


7:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Guam time: As if Okinawa doesn’t have enough problems with Typhoon Trami, the worst storm to hit that island in six years, now a new threat appears to be on the way in Tropical Storm 30W, which will be called Kong-Rey when it becomes a named storm.

It has already made closest point of approach to Guam, and is forecast to keep heading northwest and peak just below super-typhoon strength, 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts late Wednesday afternoon as it approaches the Ryukyu Islands, just days after Okinawa took a pounding from Trami.

At 7 p.m., 30W was 265 miles west of Guam and 1,323 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving quite rapidly, west-northwest at 24 mph with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. If it keeps moving as forecast, it’s due to come within 228 miles of Kadena at 3 p.m. Thursday local time, still packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts.

The tropical storm watch for Guam and Rota has been canceled, but the high-surf advisory and small-craft advisory for the main Marianas Islands remain in effect until 6 a.m. according to the National Weather Service .

Model guidance agrees on a northwest track for 30W around Okinawa – same as Trami is doing at this writing. But the GFS  and CMC  forecast ensembles are all over the lot.

Stay tuned.

                                                                                                                                             

7:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Guam time: Guam and Rota remain in a tropical storm watch, Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 3 and a high-surf and small-craft advisory are in effect for the main Marianas Islands until 6 a.m. Monday due to the approach of 30W, which was upgraded to a tropical storm overnight Friday.

Winds between 39 and 57 mph are possible for Guam as 30W passes, 103 miles south-southwest of Andersen Air Force Base at about 1 p.m. Saturday. Guam Homeland Security and Office of National Defense asks residents to prepare in case 30W tracks closer to Guam and winds and rain squalls get heavier.

30W is forecast to intensify into a typhoon at mid-afternoon Sunday, increasing to 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts early Wednesday evening and move in Okinawa’s general direction by early Thursday morning.

Model guidance agrees on a northwest track but differs on precisely where 30W will go. GFS ensemble indicates a track similar to that of current typhoon Trami; CMC ensemble is all over the lot. Stay tuned.


Midnight Friday, Sept. 28, Guam time: Guam and U.S. bases on the island have been placed in Condition of Readiness 3 in advance of Tropical Depression 30W and are preparing for any shift in forecast track, according to Guam’s Homeland Security and Office of National Defense. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Guam and Rota, according to the National Weather Service.


4 p.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Guam time: As if Okinawa doesn’t have enough bad news, now, there may be a new tropical threat on the horizon in Tropical Depression 30W.

It spawned overnight Thursday and is forecast to move northwest, just far south enough of Guam that it might not cause that much of a ruckus, but forecast to increase to Category 4-equivalent strength as it approaches Okinawa’s general neighborhood.

Model guidance indicates a track east of the island, as does the GFS forecast ensemble, with Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni and possibly Sasebo Naval Base in its sights.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Guam and Rota, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Stay tuned.


6:30 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Guam time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued on a disturbance, 94W Invest. At 6:15 p.m., it was 881 miles southeast of Guam and projected to head northwest in the general direction of Guam in the next couple of days and Okinawa in the next week.

Model guidance indicates a path similar to that of current Typhoon Trami, while the forecast ensembles are varied, the GFS ensemble showing a path identical to Trami and the CMC ensemble favoring a track east of Okinawa curving toward Japan’s main islands.

 

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