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Tropical Storm 21W (Neoguri), #13 FINAL

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: October 17, 2019

10 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 22, Japan time: Closest point of approach by Tropical Storm Neoguri to Yokosuka Naval Base has come and gone, 125 miles southeast at 5 p.m. Tuesday.

Yokosuka's weather site recorded a peak gust of 56 mph at 6:40 a.m. Tuesday, with a half-inch of rainfall during the day.

Neoguri is no longer a threat to land, but remains a strong gale-force cold-core low hurtling northeast and out of the Kanto Plain area. This is Storm Tracker's final report on Neoguri.


Noon Tuesday, Oct. 22, Japan time: Little change since the last report. Thunderstorm watch for Yokosuka Naval Base has ended. Small-craft advisory remains in effect until 11 p.m. Neoguri remains on a northeast heading, moving at 23 mph, due to pass 91 miles southeast of Yokosuka at about 4 p.m., with gusts up to 45 mph still in the picture until early afternoon.


6 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 22, Japan time: Neoguri has converted to a sub-tropical low and slowed slightly in its northeast journey in the Kanto Plain's general direction.

While 45-mph gusts and showers are forecast in the morning for Yokosuka Naval Base, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Neoguri to remain offshore and hurtle past the Kanto Plain in the early evening.

At 3 a.m., Neoguri was 285 miles southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, moving east-northeast at 14 mph and holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center.

A thunderstorm watch is in effect until 10 a.m. and a small-craft advisory until 11 p.m., according to Yokosuka's weather forecast. It  calls for 23- to 29-mph sustained winds and 45-mph gusts through morning, dropping off to 20- to 25-mph sustained winds and 35 mph gusts in early afternoon and weakening from there.

JTWC projects Neoguri to maintain gale-force intensity and pass 91 miles southeast of Yokosuka at about 6 p.m. Tuesday, then push out to sea and dissipate over the northwest Pacific.


6 p.m. Monday, Oct. 21, Japan time: Little change to previous forecast. Tropical Storm Neoguri is accelerating northeast and is forecast to move quickly just southeast of the Kanto Plain as a gale-force sub-tropical low.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Neoguri to pass 38 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base about noon Tuesday, still packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.

Yokosuka's official Facebook page stated no upgraded Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness is expected unless the forecast changes.

Yokosuka's weather forecast still calls for 20- to 25-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts at mid-afternoon after closest point of approach.


6 a.m. Monday, Oct. 21, Japan time: Neoguri has been downgraded to a tropical storm, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

It has begun accelerating northeast and should be in and through the Tokyo area by mid-afternoon into evening Tuesday as a sub-tropical gale-force low.

At 3 a.m., Neoguri was 727 miles southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, moving northeast at 25 mph packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at center.

If Neoguri stays on its present heading, it's forecast to continue weakening and accelerating rapidly, passing 41 miles southeast of Yokosuka at 3 p.m. Tuesday with gale-force 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

Yokosuka's weather forecast calls for isolated showers, 20- to 25-mph sustained winds and gusts up to 40 mph at mid-afternoon Tuesday, quickly subsiding into evening.


11:30 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 20, Japan time: Closest point of approach to Okinawa regarding Typhoon Neoguri has come and gone. Neoguri has also weakened to a minimal Category 1-equivalent storm and has begun making its way toward the Tokyo area.

At 9 p.m., Neoguri was 155 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving northeast at 16 mph packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight reported gusts ranging between 30 and 35 mph in the last several hours.

From here on, Neoguri is forecast to weaken and begin moving rapidly northeast,  transitioning to a sub-tropical gale-force low, passing 36 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 9 p.m. Tuesday, packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.

Yokosuka's extended forecast calls for 20- to 25-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts as Neoguri, or what's left of it, approaches Tuesday afternoon.


6 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 20, Japan time: Neoguri enjoyed a very brief life as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon. It has begun weakening and has picked up forward speed northeast, is due to make closest point of approach to Okinawa in a few hours to the southeast, then head toward Tokyo as a non-tropical gale-force low, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 p.m., Neoguri was 163 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving north-northeast at 16 mph packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight says no upgraded TCCOR is in the works at this time.

If Neoguri remains on its present course, it's forecast to pass 144 miles southeast of Kadena at about 9 p.m. and hurtle northeast out of the area quickly by the dawn's early light on Monday.

JTWC projects Neoguri to continue weakening, transitioning to a sub-tropical low and head toward the Tokyo area. Cool sea-surface temperatures and weather should greet Neoguri, forecast to pass 75 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at 10 p.m. Tuesday. Yokosuka's extended forecast calls for 20- to 25-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts late Tuesday afternoon.


10 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 20, Japan time: How quickly things change. Just a couple of days ago, Neoguri was forecast to remain a minimal tropical depression dying out before it reached the Philippines.

Now, Neoguri has reached Category 2-equivalent intensity as it continues to lurk south of Okinawa. But ... it remains forecast to weaken, turn northeast and start moving rapidly in that direction, passing southeast of Okinawa with U.S. bases forecast to be out of harm's way, since Neoguri remains a compact storm.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, with no plans at the moment to upgrade to TCCOR 3, according to Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

If Neoguri remains on its present course, it's forecast to pass 95 miles southeast of Kadena about 2 a.m. Monday, with 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at storm's center.

But Neoguri's western quadrants, typically the weaker of a typhoon's quadrants, would be facing Okinawa, and U.S. bases are forecast to remain outside of Neoguri's forecast destructive 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands, which JTWC projects to only extend 23 miles from center.

From there, Neoguri is forecast to track northeast, weakening to a sub-tropical low as it passes 43 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at 5 a.m. Wednesday as a sub-tropical low, packing gale-force 46-mph sustained winds. A rainy, gusty mid-week, but not nearly as bad as Faxai and Hagibis last month and a week ago.


1:30 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 20, Japan time: Typhoon Neoguri could reach Category 2-equivalent intensity sometime mid-morning Sunday, but is forecast to diminish from there and move rapidly northeast, passing southeast of Okinawa and the Tokyo area later in the week as a tropical storm.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Neoguri to remain a compact storm, with destructive winds confined to a small area even as it reaches 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts around 9 a.m. Sunday.

Neoguri is then forecast to weaken and start moving rapidly northeast. It's due to pass 77 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base at 5 a.m. Monday and possibly as a strong tropical storm intead of a Category 1-equivalent typhoon.

Neoguri is a small storm in terms of diameter, 170 miles or so, and its destructive wind diameter is just shy of 50 miles. And Okinawa would be facing Neoguri's less-dangerous western quadrants, if the current forecast holds.

U.S. bases remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 on Okinawa. That might or might not change, depending on forecast track and whether Neoguri strengthens. There could be an upgrade to TCCOR 3, or TCCOR Storm Watch or we might remain in TCCOR 4. That all depends, as they say.

And can the Tokyo area buy a break or what? If Neoguri remains on its current course, it's due to reach the Tokyo area as a tropical storm, 52-mph sustained winds and 63- mph gusts at center as it makes its forecast pass 62 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at 1 a.m. Wednesday.

No Hagibis or Faxai rerun forecast at the moment, but Neoguri does bear watching. Stay tuned.


8:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 19, Japan time: Neoguri has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and is forecast to peak overnight at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center as it lurks south of Okinawa.

Though forecast to pass 64 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base at 6 a.m. Monday, the fiercest parts of Neoguri are forecast to be in the east quadrants, facing away from Okinawa as Neoguri passes by. The west quadrants, typically the weaker of the four, are forecast to face the island, and destructive winds only extend 23 miles west of center, JTWC reports.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight says no TCCOR upgrade is imminent at this time, since destructive winds are not forecast for the island.
 

Noon Saturday, Oct. 19, Japan time: Tropical Storm Neoguri remains forecast to curve northeast and pass 98 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at 7 a.m. Monday, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at storm's center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Destructive winds appear to be confined to storm's center, and in Neoguri's east quadrants facing away from island.

Officials at Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight said no destructive winds are forecast for Okinawa and no TCCOR upgrade is foreseen at the moment.


8 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 19, Japan time: Tropical Storm Neoguri continues lurking about 400 miles south of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and is forecast to peak at just below typhoon strength, 69-mph sustained wind and 86-mph gusts early Sunday morning.

But conditions should change as the work week begins. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Neoguri to curve northeast and pass 106 miles southeast of Kadena at 10 a.m. Monday as a tropical storm, 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

The good news, if there is such a thing regarding tropical cyclones, is Neoguri is forecast to pass east of the island. That would mean the storm's west quadrants, typically the weaker ones, would be facing the island, with most of the high winds confined to storm's center.

Kadena's extended weather forecast calls for winds to peak Monday, 24-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts and a 60- to 80-percent chance of rainshowers and possible thunderstorms.


7 a.m. Friday, Oct. 18, Japan time: A new tropical storm is lurking about 470 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and much uncertainty revolves around Neoguri, whether it might make a straight run west toward Taiwan or curve northeast toward Okinawa in the coming days.

The current Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track calls for Neoguri to pass 123 miles southeast of Kadena at 6 p.m. Tuesday as a tropical depression, enough at this point to cause rain and gusty winds, but nothing close to typhoon-class. Storm Tracker will keep an eye on it.

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