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Tropical Storm 13W (Lester), # 18 Final

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: September 2, 2016

1 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 4, Hawaii time: Lester has been downgraded to a tropical storm by the National Weather Service and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and continues on its northwest path, packing sustained 63-mph winds and 81-mph gusts at center.

It’s already passed closest point of approach to U.S. bases on the principal Hawaiian island of Oahu and is forecast to curve northeast in the coming week.


2 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 3, Hawaii time: Hurricane watches have been canceled for the Hawaiian islands as Lester continues tracking west-northwest and just to the north of the islands, close, but not enough to cause much beyond high surf, wind gusts and showers.

Lester remains forecast to pass 127 miles northeast of Camp H.M. Smith at about 6 p.m., still as a Category 1 hurricane with 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center, with the heavier winds framed in the northern quadrants, facing away from the islands.


Noon Friday, Sept. 2, Hawaii time:Hurricane Lester’s forecast track continues edging every slightly more north of the Hawaiian islands, now 121 miles northeast of Camp H.M. Smith at 7 p.m. Saturday. Wind values remain the same as in PST's previous report. Hurricane watch remains in effect.


5:30 a.m. Friday, Sept. 2, Hawaii time: Hurricane Lester’s latest forecast track edges it a bit further away from U.S. bases on Oahu than PST’s previous report. If Lester remains on course, it should pass 130 miles northeast of Camp H.M. Smith at about 10 p.m. Saturday. It should still be a Category 1 hurricane, 75-mph winds and 92-mph gusts at center, but the fiercest wind should still be framed north of the Hawaiian islands.


12:30 a.m. Friday, Sept. 2, Hawaii time: Hurricane Lester continues to weaken as it moves west, and remains on a track that should take it just north of the Hawaiian islands over the weekend as a Category 1 hurricane, according to the National Weather Service and Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

At 10 p.m., Lester was 550 miles east of Hilo on the Big Island, heading west-northwest at 14 mph, packing sustained 115-mph winds and 132-mph gusts at center.

If it remains on its current path, Lester should pass 100 miles northeast of Camp H.M. Smith at 7 p.m. Saturday, still as a Category 1 hurricane, 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts. A hurricane watch remains in effect for the islands.

Madeline has been downgraded to a tropical depression and continues to move well south of the islands, apparently no longer a threat.


11:30 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 1, Hawaii time: Little change to Hurricane Lester’s forecast track. Lester continues to diminish as it continues heading on a course taking it just north of the Hawaiian islands over the weekend, with the strongest winds in the northern quadrants facing away from the islands.

At 8 a.m., Lester was 720 miles east of Hilo on the Big Island, moving west at 15 mph, packing sustained 104-mph winds and 127-mph gusts at center, a strong Category 2 hurricane. The Big Island and Maui are under a hurricane watch as Lester approaches.

If it continues on its current track, Lester should pass 72 miles northeast of Camp H.M. Smith on the principal island of Oahu 9 p.m. Saturday as a Category 1 hurricane, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center.

As for Tropical Storm Madeline, it continues tracking southwest and away from the islands, remaining a middling tropical storm and becoming less and less a threat to the 50th state as it goes.


Midnight Wednesday, Aug. 31, Hawaii time: Madeline made an unexpected sharp left turn the past few hours and is now projected to track well south of the Hawaiian islands, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Little has changed regarding Hurricane Lester, meanwhile, which remains on course to brush just north of the 50th state’s principal island of Oahu over the weekend.

At 10 p.m., Madeline was 192 miles south-southwest of Hilo, tracking southwest at 18 mph and as a middling tropical storm, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center.

It’s forecast to keep weakening as it travels 320 miles south of Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam at 4 a.m. Thursday.

Lester lags 875 miles east of Hilo and continues tracking west at 13 mph. If it remains on its current track, Lester should pass 69 miles northeast of Camp H.M. Smith at 9 p.m. Saturday, still packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, barely a Category 1 hurricane.


6:30 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 31, Hawaii time: Madeline has been downgraded to a tropical storm by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and continues diminishing as it rumbles south of Hawaii’s Big Island and on a path taking it well south of U.S. bases on Oahu.

But Lester … that hurricane is another story. With every passing track, Lester’s forecast path keeps edging closer, ever closer, to Hawaii’s principal island of Oahu sometime this weekend.

At 4 p.m., Madeline was 108 miles south of Hilo, heading west-southwest at 12 mph packing sustained 63-mph winds and 81-mph gusts at center. Tropical storm warning remains in effect for Hawaii and its other smaller islands.

Lester remains a Category 3 hurricane. At 4 p.m. Lester was about 950 miles east of Hilo, heading west-northwest at 15 mph, packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center.

It remains forecast by CPHC to diminish as it keeps heading west-northwest, on a forecast track that takes it 75 miles north of Camp H.M. Smith by 9 p.m. Saturday. It’s expected at that time to still be packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center, the heaviest winds in the northern quadrants away from Oahu. But still a dangerous storm.


1 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 31, Hawaii time: The hurricane warning has been dropped for the Big Island, but tropical storm warning remains in effect as Madeline barely hangs on to hurricane strength, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center as it’s poised to pass Hilo 92 miles south at 3 p.m.

Lester remains on track to pass about 70 miles north-northeast of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu at 8 a.m. Saturday, again as a Category 1 hurricane, 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center, more of the damaging winds in the northern quadrants.


Midnight Tuesday, Aug. 30, Hawaii time: The news gets slightly worse for Hawaii as Hurricane Madeline is projected to edge closer to the Big Island to its south and Lester to remain a hurricane even after it passes the 50th State to the north.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Madeline, 270 miles east of Hilo and tracking west at 12 mph, is due to pass 67 miles south of Hilo at 6 p.m. Wednesday as a Category 1 hurricane, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Big Island.

Lester, about 920 miles east of Madeline, continues tracking west at 12 mph and has increased in intensity back to Category 4 strength, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center. Lester is on track to pass just 85 miles north of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu at 2 a.m. Sunday, packing winds similar to Madeline’s as it passes.


Noon Tuesday, Aug. 30, Hawaii time: Hurricanes Madeline and Lester are still forecast to remain strong while east of Hawaii, then diminish as they approach the islands, Madeline south of Hawaii on Wednesday, and Lester north into Labor Day weekend.

No direct hits are currently forecast. Madeine is due to pass 77 miles south of Hilo on the Big Island at about 9 p.m. Wednesday packing sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts at center. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Big Island and a tropical storm watch for Maui.

If Lester remains on current course, it’s due to pass 154 miles northeast of Hilo at noon Saturday and 102 miles northeast of Camp H.M. Smith at 3 a.m. Sunday as a Category 1 hurricane.


2 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 30, Hawaii time: Madeline appears as if it will maintain Category 1 hurricane strength as it passes the Hawaiian Islands, instead of diminishing before reaching Oahu as PST previously reported.

Madeline was about 550 miles east of Hilo on the Big Island at midnight, still as a Category 3 hurricane, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center.

If it remains on its current track, Madeline is forecast to pass just 85 miles south of Hilo at 10 p.m. Wednesday, having diminished some, but still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center.

It’s forecast to remain a Category 1 storm, 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it rumbles 215 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu, at 5 p.m. Thursday.

Lester continues to lag behind, about 1,470 miles east of Hilo at midnight, churning west at 14 mph and still on track to curve slightly north of the Hawaiian islands over the weekend, as a Category 1 hurricane or a severe tropical storm.


Noon Monday, Aug. 28, Hawaii time: While Madeline remains on track to pass south of the Hawaiian islands, it continues picking up intensity and is forecast to peak as a Category 4 hurricane by Tuesday evening, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

At 8 a.m., Madeline was about 660 miles east-southeast of Hilo on the Big Island, moving west-northwest at 10 mph. If it remains on its current course, Madeline should remain a Category 1 hurricane as it roars 100 miles south of Hilo at 9 p.m. Wednesday and about 240 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu 21 hours later.

Hurricane Lester remains in trail, several hundred miles east and continuing to make a beeline west as a Category 4 hurricane, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center. CPHC and National Hurricane Center projections show Lester making an arc just north of the Big Island and Oahu.


Midnight Sunday, Aug. 28, Hawaii time: Madeline has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane and is forecast to intensify slightly to a Category 2 storm at peak, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at 8 p.m. Monday.

But it’s still on course to miss the Big Island and U.S. bases on Oahu to the south, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center report: 85 miles south of Hilo at 8 p.m. Wednesday, still as a Category 1 hurricane, and 245 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu 12 hours later.


1:30 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 28, Hawaii time: Could be we have one tropical cyclone pass south and another pass north of Hawaii, if the latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center forecast tracks are any indicators.

If it stays on present course, Madeline is forecast to become a hurricane briefly on Monday, then degrade into a severe tropical storm and pass about 60 miles south of Hilo on the Big Island at 10 p.m. Wednesday and 216 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu 12 hours later, still packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center.

Lester, much further east, is another matter. It remains a Category 1 hurricane, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts and making a beeline due west. It’s forecast to start curving northwest on approach to the Big Island; whether it misses Hawaii remains to be seen. Stay tuned. PST is on it.


7 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 27, Hawaii time: Little change save for the latest forecast track taking Tropical Storm Madeline further south of Oahu and Hilo than previously projected.

If it remains on its current course, Madeline is forecast to pass 24 miles south of Hilo at 9 p.m. Wednesday and 167 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith 12 hours later, still as a significant tropical storm, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center.


12:45 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 27, Hawaii time: Welcome to the Madeline and Lester Show, where one tropical cyclone continues on course to slice its way between Maui and the Big Island by mid-week next week, and another may be right on its heels.

Madeline remains on a northwest track, at 10 mph, and continues picking up steam, currently 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts. It’s forecast to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane by 8 a.m. Sunday, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

If it remains on its current path, expect Madeline to curl 40 miles north of Hilo at about 10 p.m. Wednesday then about 116 miles southeast of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu about 10 hours later, still as a severe tropical storm, packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts. PST remains on top of it.

Trailing Madeline by about 1,000 miles east is Hurricane Lester, which is currently on a westerly path at 12 mph, just past Clarion Island, and also headed in Hawaii’s general direction.


12:45 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 27, Hawaii time:

Looks like Hawaii’s going to have some blustery company by the middle of next week.

Tropical Storm Madeline continues on a northwest trajectory, but is forecast to make a left turn and make a beeline between the Big Island and Maui sometime Wednesday into Thursday, as a severe tropical storm, and perhaps not the hurricane that Hawaii hasn’t seen in 23 years.

The latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center track shows Madeline arcing 55 miles north of Hilo on the Big Island and 193 miles east of Camp H.M. Smith on the principal island of Oahu around 8 p.m. Wednesday, still packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts. Just below Category 1 strength.

PST is watching.


9 p.m. Friday, Aug. 26, Hawaii time: A new tropical storm has spawned and appears to be putting Hawaii’s Big Island in its sights by the middle of next week.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s latest forecast track puts as-net-unnamed 14E 105 miles east of Hilo as a severe tropical storm, packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts and headed west. More as this new storm develops.
 

Lester tracking past Hawaiian islands as weekend progresses; hurricane watches canceled.
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