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Tropical Storm 11W (Haishen), # 46 FINAL

U.S. NAVY

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: August 16, 2020

6 p.m. Monday, Sept. 7, Korea time: Haishen has been downgraded to a tropical storm by Joint Typhoon Warning Center, has made its way back over water in the Sea of Japan (East Sea) and is forecast to make secondary landfall over North Korea's east coast late Monday.

At 3 p.m., Haishen was 138 miles east-northeast of Osan Air Base and has put the pedal to the metal, moving north at 34 mph with 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at center.

Most U.S. bases on peninsula have moved to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All Clear or seasonal TCCOR 4, with one or two still in TCCOR 1-R (recovery) including Kunsan Air Base as of 5 p.m.

Take special care, though, when out and about, since there may be a stray downed tree or flooding in low-lying areas.

Daegu's Area IV reported minimal damage, a couple of downed trees at Camp Carroll and flooding at the Busan Storage Center. The trees were cleared by Department of Public Works and pumps were deployed to clear the flooding at BSC, Area IV public affairs officials said in an email.

What a long string of tropical cyclones that have affected Japan and Korea we've had these past six weeks! Hagupit, Jangmi, Higos, Bavi, Maysak and this one, almost in conveyor-belt, assembly-line fashion.

For the moment, no disturbances are on the horizon, but this is September, and September and October are typically the busiest months for cyclones in the northwest Pacific.

Unless things change dramatically, this should be Storm Tracker's final report regarding Haishen.


2:50 p.m. Monday, Sept. 7, Korea time: Commander Fleet Activities Chinhae in South Korea has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All Clear, while Daegu-Area IV in South Korea have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Reaadiness 1-R (recovery). Destructive winds are no longer occurring on station.

A reminder for areas in 1-R: Stay indoors until the all clear is sounded. Destructive winds might not be occurring, but first responders and staff civil are out inspecting for damage and establishing safe zones.

What a wild Sunday and Monday it was and still is for southwestern Japan and the Korean peninsula regarding Typhoon Haishen, which made landfall at mid-morning Monday over Ulsan in southeastern Korea and brushed past Sasebo Naval Base overnight Sunday.

According to Japan Meterorological Agency, Haishen is the fifth tropical cyclone to affect Korea since the start of August, following Hagupit, Jangmi, Bavi and Maysak, and the ninth over the last two years.

It's the most over one year and two years since records began being kept in 1951. It's also one of the strongest to hit southwestern Japan since 1959.

According to The Associated Press:

-- In Korea, more than 300 flights serving Cheju Island and other major airports around Korea were canceled and some high-speed KTX and local trains were suspended.

-- More than 17,000 homes lost power in Korea, with a little over 13,000 restored by mid-day.

-- More than 20 were reported injured by the storm. Flooding especially in low-lying areas was reported in southeastern locales.

According to Kyodo News:

-- In Japan, 52 people were reported injured as of noon Monday, with more than 450,000 homes without power in Kyushu Island in southwestern Japan.

-- High-speed Shinkansen train service between Hakata and Hiroshima was suspended, with service between Hiroshima and Shin-Osaka reduced.

-- NHK reported 579 flights serving Kyushu and Okinawa were canceled Monday.

-- NHK also reported evacuation orders or advisories for 1.38 million households in Kyushu.


1 p.m. Monday, Sept. 7, Japan time: With Typhoon Haishen having put it in its rear-view mirror, Commander Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All Clear.


12:15 p.m. Monday, Sept. 7, Korea time: Haishen has weakened but retained Catetory 1-equivalent typhoon status as it made landfall Monday morning over Korea's southeast coast.

Naval Base Chinhae and Daegu remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency), Kunsan Air Base in TCCOR 1-C (caution) and Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remained in TCCOR 1-R (recovery) at mid-day Monday.

At 9 a.m., just past landfall, Haishen was 29 miles north-northwest of Busan and was moving north at 26 mph packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. Haishen is forecast to continue weakening as it moves inland.

Daegu's official Facebook page reports that the Shincheon River east of Camps Walker and Henry has swollen to dangerous levels and more than a dozen roads in low-lying areas near rivers have closed. Limit travel to only emergency or essential needs.


9 a.m. Monday, Sept. 7, Korea time: Naval Base Chinhae and Area IV  in South Korea are in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency). Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are occurring. Outdoor activity is prohibited. Stay indoors until the all clear is announced.

Also, Kunsan Air Base is in TCCOR 1-C (caution). Winds between 40 and 57 mph are occurring on station. Time to get indoors and stay there if not yet there. Destructive winds could begin at any point.


8:20 a.m. Monday, Sept. 7, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery).

Destructive winds are no longer occurring on station. Staff civil and first responders are out inspecting for damage and establishing safe zones. Stay indoors until the all clear is sounded.


6:40 a.m. Monday, Sept. 7, Japan/Korea time: Typhoon Haishen continues northward toward forecast landfall at mid-morning Monday over Korea's south coast, passing just east of Naval Base Chinhae and Daegu at mid-morning according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Closest point of approach regarding Sasebo Naval Base, 36 miles west, has come and gone. Destructive winds were still occurring there at 6 a.m., and more of the same can be expected through Monday for U.S. bases in southeastern Korea as Haishen moves through the area.

At 3 a.m., Haishen was 140 miles south of Chinhae, moving north-northwest at 27 mph, packing Category 2-equivalent 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency). Daegu-Area IV was in TCCOR 1-C (caution) as of 3:30 a.m. and Chinhae and Kunsan Air Base remained in TCCOR 1; expect upgrades should destructive winds affect those locales.

Sasebo's weather forecast calls for destructive winds, southerly at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts, to continue until mid-morning, subsiding gradually, with showers, heavy at times, and thunderstorms.

If Haishen stays on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to pass 12 miles east of Chinhae and 6 east of Daegu between 8 and 10 a.m., then 117 east of Kunsan, 86 east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 75 east of Camp Casey between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m.

Check U.S. Forces Korea's official Facebook page for updates on forecast wind speeds and rainfall at bases throughout peninsula. Individual base Facebook pages detail TCCORs, road conditions and service suspensions and closures.

JTWC reports Haishen should encounter a less-hospitable environment as it moves north, cooler sea-surface temperatures and vertical wind shear coupled with Korea's rugged terrain, which should begin to erode the storm as it moves inland. More to come.


12:40 a.m. Monday, Sept. 7, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) due to Typhoon Haishen.

Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are occurring on station. Outdoor activity is prohibited. Stay indoors until the all clear is sounded.


12:20 a.m. Monday, Sept. 7, Japan/Korea time: It's as direct a hit as can possibly be forecast: Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Haishen to make landfall right over Naval Base Chinhae at mid-morning Monday as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon.

Haishen remains forecast to pass just west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan overnight Sunday, then plow ashore over Korea's south coast, making a near-direct pass over Daegu following Chinhae and east of the U.S. bases on the west coast of the Korean peninsula.

At 9 p.m., Haishen was 153 miles south of Sasebo, 382 miles south-southeast of Kunsan Air Base and 292 miles south-southeast of Chinhae, moving north-northwest at 20 mph, packing Category 2-eqiuvalent 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center.

On the Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness scoreboard, Sasebo, Chinhae, Kunsan and Area IV remained in TCCOR 1 as of midnight; expect upgrades to TCCOR 1-E (emergency) as destructive winds start occurring. Osan Air Base and Camp Casey remain in TCCOR 3.

Haishen is forecast to pass 39 miles west of Sasebo at 3 a.m. Monday, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts.

Sasebo's weather forecast calls for destructive winds just past midnight, peaking southerly at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 5 a.m. with showers and thunderstorms, continuing into late morning and afternoon.

JTWC projects Haishen to make landfall over Chinhae at 9 a.m. Monday, still packing Category 1-equivalent 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts.

Haishen is forecast to pass 7 miles west of Daegu, 110 east of Kunsan, 75 east of Osan and Camp Humphreys and 59 east of Camp Casey between noon and 5 p.m. Monday.

U.S. Forces Korea's official Facebook page details wind speeds and rainfall amounts for bases on peninsula. Individual base Facebook pages offer TCCORs, road conditions, service suspensions and closures and reporting for duty delays. More to come as morning unfolds.


11 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Korea time: Kunsan Air Base on South Korea's southwest coast has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 in advance of Typhoon Haishen. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.


8:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Korea time: Kunsan Air Base on Korea's west coast has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2, while Osan Air Base and Camp Casey have directed TCCOR 3 in advance of Typhoon Haishen.


7:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Korea time: Naval Base Chinhae has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 in advance of Typhoon Haishen. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.


6:15 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan/Korea time: Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan and U.S. bases in southeastern Korea continue bracing for the forecast arrival of Typhoon Haishen.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Haishen to pass just west of Sasebo and make a near-direct hit on Naval Base Chinhae on Monday morning, with accompanying gusts up to 104 mph for Sasebo and 92 for Korea's Area IV.

At 3 p.m., Haishen was 263 miles south of Sasebo, rumbling north-northwest at 21 mph packing Category 3-equivalent 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts.

On the Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness scoreboard, Sasebo remains in TCCOR 1, Daegu has entered TCCOR 1, Chinhae remains in TCCOR 2 and Okinawa has reverted to seasonal TCCOR 4.

According to official base Facebook pages, expect Sasebo to upgrade to TCCOR 1-E Sunday evening and Daegu and Chinhae to follow shortly thereafter.

Haishen is forecast to pass 39 miles west of Sasebo about 4 a.m. Monday. Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for wings picking up Sunday into Monday, peaking southerly at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 5 a.m. with showers and thunderstorms, continuing into late morning and afternoon.

JTWC projects Haishen to make landfall about mid-morning Monday over Korea's south coast, passing 4 miles west of Chinhae and 13 west of Daegu between 9 and 11 a.m., packing 69-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts with showers and thunderstorms.

The news is better for U.S. bases on Korea's west coast. Haishen is due to pass 106 miles east of Kunsan Air Base, 72 east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 56 east of Camp Casey between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. Monday, weakening as it moves inland.

U.S. Forces Korea's official Facebook page denotes forecast wind speed and rainfall. Base official Facebook pages outline TCCORs, road conditions, service suspensions and closures and delays in reporting for duty; those are updated frequently. More to come.


1 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 in advance of Typhoon Haishen. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.


12:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan/Korea time: Naval Base Chinhae in South Korea has joined Daegu-Area IV and Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan in setting Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.

At 9 a.m., Typhoon Haishen was 168 miles east-northeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, rumbling north-northwest at 15 mph and had weakened to Category 2-equivalent status, 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

The highest gust recorded on Okinawa was 73 mph at 5:41 a.m. on Miyagi Island east of White Beach, according to Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR Storm Watch. Elsewhere, Osan Air Base in South Korea has reverted to seasonal TCCOR 5.

If Haishen stays on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts it to keep moving north-northwest, weakening to a Category 1-equivalent storm, passing 37 miles west of Sasebo at 5 a.m. Monday.

Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for wings picking up Sunday into Monday, peaking southerly at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 5 a.m. with showers and thunderstorms, continuing into late morning and afternoon.

Then it's on to Korea's south coast. JTWC projects Haishen to make landfall about 10 or 11 a.m. Monday, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts, Category 1-equivalent strength, as it moves ashore.

Haishen is forecast to make near-direct hits on Chinhae, 9 miles west, and Daegu, 13 miles west, between 11 a.m. and noon; next, passing 110 miles east of Kunsan Air Base, 77 east of Osan and Camp Humphreys and 64 east of Camp Casey between 1 and 6 p.m.

U.S. Forces Korea's official Facebook page details forecast wind speeds and rainfall for bases and areas on peninsula. Keep tabs on bases' individual facebook pages, which provide updated TCCORs, road conditions, services closures and duty reporting delays.


11:45 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are no longer occurring, but Haishen remains close enough to Okinawa that a probability of high winds might still exist. Facilities should start reopening two hours after Storm Watch was issued. Stay tuned.


8:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery).

Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are no longer occurring. First responders and staff civil are fanning out to establish safe zones and inspect for damage. Stay indoors until the all clear is sounded.


7:45 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency):

-- Peak 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts for northern Okinawa, 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts for Kadena: 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 1 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 8 p.m. Sunday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts 3 to 5 inches of rain associated with Haishen.


7 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan/Korea time: U.S. bases on Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E at 6 a.m. local. Destructive winds of 58 mph are occurring. All outdoor activity is prohibited.

A piece of very good news for Korea: Haishen is forecast to weaken dramatically as it approaches Korea's south coast at mid-afternoon Monday, and might make landfall as a tropical storm instead of a typhoon.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Haishen to encounter cooler sea-surface temperatures and increased vertical wind shear, with core winds dropping to 63-mph sustained and 81-mph gusts at forecast landfall around 3 p.m. Monday just west of Busan.

Haishen remains on target to rumble just west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at mid-morning Monday but also in a sharply weakened state.

As for Okinawa, Haishen remains a Category 3-equivalent typhoon with passage forecast for 7 a.m. Sunday some 171 miles east-northeast of Kadena Air Base. The Island is feeling the effects of Haishen's west quadrants, typically the weaker of the four.

At 3 a.m., Haishen was 180 miles east of Kadena, 541 miles south of Sasebo and 630 miles south-southeast of Naval Base Chinhae, South Korea, moving north-northwest at 10 mph packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center.

Elsewhere on the Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness scoreboard, Sasebo and Area IV in Korea in TCCOR 2 and Osan Air Base, South Korea, in TCCOR 3.. Expect upgraded TCCORs in Sasebo and Korea as the day wears on.

Updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa to be posted when available from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

If Haishen stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to keep moving north-northwest, passing 47 miles west of Sasebo at 10 a.m. Monday as a Category 2-equivalent storm, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for wings picking up Sunday into Monday, peaking southerly at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 5 a.m. with showers and thunderstorms, continuing into late morning and afternoon.

JTWC forecasts Haishen to continue weakening, down to 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gust at projected landfall, 3 p.m. Monday, with closest points of approach 15 miles west of Chinhae and 20 west of Daegu between 4 and 7 p.m.

Haishen is next due to pass 100 miles east of Kunsan Air Base, 68 east of Osan and Camp Humphreys and 55 east of Camp Casey between 7 p.m. Monday and 1 a.m. Tuesday, steadily weakening as it interacts with Korea's rugged inland terrain.

U.S. Forces Korea's official Facebook page details forecast wind speeds and rainfall for each base and area of peninsula. Keep checking with your bases' individual Facebook pages for  road conditions, services closures and suspensions and delays in reporting for duty.


1:37 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Sustained winds of at least 40 mph are occurring at a particular base on island. Time to get indoors and stay there until the all clear is sounded.

1:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts for northern Okinawa, 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts for Kadena: 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: Noon Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 5 p.m. Sunday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts 2 to 3 inches of rain associated with Haishen.


12:10 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 6, Japan/Korea time: Typhoon Haishen has turned north-northwest, on approach to U.S. bases in southeastern Korea and just west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan on Monday, and east-northeast of Okinawa later Sunday morning.

At 9 p.m., Haishen was 213 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, 545 miles south of Sasebo and 687 miles south-southeast of Naval Base Chinhae, rumbling north-northwest at 10 mph, still at Category 4-equivalent strength, 132-mph sustained winds and 161 mph gusts at center.

On the Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness scoreboard, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR 1; that could be upgraded any time Sunday depending on observed wind speeds on a particular base or bases on island.

Sasebo is in TCCOR 2; the base's official Facebook page says to expect upgrade to TCCOR 1 at noon Sunday and TCCOR 1-E at 10 p.m.

Meanwhile, Daegu-Area IV is still in TCCOR 3; that could also be upgraded at some point Sunday. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni remains in TCCOR Storm Watch and should remain so until Haishen passes, according to MCAS' official Facebook page.

If Haishen stays on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts it to pass 162 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 7 a.m. Sunday, packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center, Category 3-equivalent strength.

Updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa to be published as soon as available from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

From there, JTWC projects Haishen to remain on a north-northwesterly course, passing 48 miles west of Sasebo at 4 a.m. Monday.

Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for wings picking up Sunday into Monday, peaking southerly at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 6 a.m. with showers and thunderstorms.

JTWC forecasts Haishen making landfall over Korea's south coast for 9 a.m. Monday, still as a Category 1-equivalent storm, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it rams ashore. Closest points of approach for Chinhae and Daegu are 15 and 20 miles west between 10 a.m. and noon Monday.

The news remains better for U.S. bases on South Korea's west coast: Haishen is forecast to pass 100 miles east of Kunsan Air Base, 68 east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 55 east of Camp Casey between 1 and 7 p.m. Monday as a severe tropical storm, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts.

U.S. Forces Korea's official Facebook page details forecast wind speeds and rainfall for each base and area on peninsula.

Individual base Facebook pages outline service suspensions, road conditions and delays in reporting for duty. Those pages are updated frequently.

JTWC reports continued tight agreement among model solutions, as do model-track guidance and forecast ensembles.


8 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 5, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.


7:15 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 5, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 11 p.m. Saturday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts for northern Okinawa, 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts for Kadena: 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 1 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 6 p.m. Sunday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts 2 to 3 inches of rain associated with Haishen.


7 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 5, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.


6:40 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 5, Japan/Korea time: The news gets slightly better for Okinawa concerning Typhoon Haishen. Not so much for Sasebo Naval Base and particularly U.S. bases in southeastern Korea, bracing for a near-direct Category 2-equivalent hit on Monday.

At 3 p.m., Haishen was 265 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, 595 miles south of Sasebo and 736 miles south-southeast of Naval Base Chinhae, South Korea, rumbling northwest at 9 mph, packing Category 4-equivalent 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center.

On the Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness scoreboard, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR 2 and Sasebo and Daegu-Area IV in TCCOR 3. Expect upgrades to those at any point this evening. Marine Corps Air Station, Japan, remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

If Haishen maintains its present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to pass 170 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 7 a.m. Sunday, still packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts.

Those are at storm's center. Unlike Bavi and Maysak, which fed Okinawa the stronger east quadrants the last two weeks, Haishen's west quadrants, typically the lesser of the four, would be facing the island this time.

Updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa to be posted as soon as available from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

JTWC projects Haishen to keep moving north and pass just 38 miles west of Sasebo at 6 a.m. Monday, packing 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center, Category 2-equivalent strength.

Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for wings picking up Sunday into Monday, peaking southerly at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 6 a.m. with showers and thunderstorms. Time to finish preparations for this one.

Haishen is then projected to make landfall over Korea's southern coast at mid-morning Monday, making near-direct passes over Chinhae and Daegu between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m., still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it roars ashore.

The news gets slightly better for U.S. bases on Korea's west coast; Haishen is forecast to pass 116 miles east of Kunsan Air Base, 83 east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 68 east of Camp Casey between 2 and 8 p.m. Monday, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center.

JTWC reports model solutions are in tight agreement; model-track guidance and forecast ensembles show the same. Storm Tracker remains on watch.


12:15 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 5, Korea time: First weekends of September and typhoons are becoming old hat for the Korean peninsula. Lingling last Sept. 7, Haishen this year if the current forecast holds.

Haishen has been downgraded, no longer a super typhoon, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. But it remains a dangerous Category 4-equivalent storm and still has Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan and eastern Korea in its sights for a Monday rendezvous.

At 9 a.m., Haishen was 314 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, 649 miles south-southeast of Sasebo and 787 miles south-southeast of Naval Base Chinhae, moving northwest at 11 mph, packing 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts.

On the Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness scoreboard, Okinawa remains in TCCOR 2, Sasebo and Korea's Area IV in TCCOR 3 and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in TCCOR Storm Watch. Sasebo expects to set TCCOR 1-E at 10 p.m. Sunday, according to its Facebook page.

If Haishen stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to pass 162 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 8 a.m. Sunday, still packing Category 4-equivalent 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts for northern Okinawa, 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts for Kadena: 8 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 1 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Sunday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts 2 to 3 inches of rain associated with Haishen.

Haishen is forecast to pass 50 miles west of Sasebo at 6 a.m. Monday, second dangerous storm to affect the base in less than a week.

Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for wings picking up Sunday into Monday, peaking at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 7 a.m. with showers and thunderstorms.

Korea, meanwhile, can't seem to buy a break. Haishen would become the fifth tropical cyclone to affect peninsula in the last month, joining Hagupit (Aug. 5), Jangmi (Aug. 10), Bavi (Aug. 27) and Maysak last week.

That would also surpass the record for tropical cyclones in one season affecting Korea, four, set in 2012 and matched last year, since records began being kept in 1951, according to Japan Meterological Agency.

If the current forecast holds, Haishen is due to make landfall around noon Monday packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts.

JTWC forecasts passage 16 miles west of Chinhae, 19 west of Daegu, 100 east of Kunsan Air Base, 68 east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 55 east of Camp Casey between noon and 9 p.m. Monday.

U.S. Forces Korea's official Facebook page details forecast wind speed and rainfall for all U.S. bases and areas on peninsula. Individual base Facebook pages will detail TCCORs, suspensions of services and delayed reporting for duty.

JTWC reports tight agreement among solutions with a couple of outliers to the east. Model-track guidance also indicates tight agreement. More to follow.


8 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 5, Korea time: U.S. bases in Area IV of South Korea have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.


7 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 5, Japan/Korea time:
With every passing update, Super Typhoon Haishen's forecast track edges closer to Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan, and puts Naval Base Chinhae and Daegu in South Korea in the crosshairs for a near-direct hit Monday.

At 3 a.m., Haishen was 378 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and 761 miles south-southeast of Sasebo, rumbling northwest at 11 mph and holding steady at Category 4-equivalent strength, 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2, Sasebo in TCCOR 3 and Chinhae and Daegu in TCCOR 4. Expect upgraded TCCORs as Haishen tracks closer, with facilities in those locales expected to be closed on Monday.

Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, remains in TCCOR Storm Watch and is expected to remain so as Haishen passes well west, according to the base's official Facebook page.

If Haishen stays on its present course, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to pass 166 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 8 a.m. Sunday, still packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center, steadily weakening as it moves north.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 11 p.m. Saturday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts for northern Okinawa, 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts for Kadena: 8 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: Noon Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Sunday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Closest point of approach to Sasebo is forecast for 46 miles west at 7 a.m. Monday. Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for wings picking up Sunday into Monday, peaking at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 7 a.m. with showers and thunderstorms.

Landfall over Korea's southeast coast is forecast for mid-day Monday, with near-direct passage over Chinhae and Daegu between 1 and 3 p.m. Monday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at landfall.

JTWC forecasts Haishen to then pass 105 miles east of Kunsan Air Base, 72 east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 60 east of Camp Casey between 2 and 9 p.m. Monday, steadily weakening as it moves inland.

Model solutions are in better agreement, JTWC reports. Model-track guidance and forecast ensembles show similar. More to come.


12:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 5, Japan/Korea time: Slightly better news for Okinawa. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest update indicates Haishen is forecast to pass further east of Okinawa early Sunday and has peaked as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon.

That doesn't mean Okinawa is out of the woods, nor are Sasebo Naval Base and the Korean peninsula. Haishen could pass close enough that Okinawa should still feel some effect. And the latest forecast track takes it closer to Sasebo and Korea's east coast.

At 9 p.m., Super Typhoon Haishen was 443 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, 759 miles south-southeast of Sasebo and 906 miles south-southeast of Naval Base Chinhae, South Korea, moving northwest at 10 mph packing 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center.

If Haishen remains on its current track, JTWC forecasts it to pass 166 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 8 a.m. Sunday, still packing 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at center; and 57 miles west of Sasebo at 7 a.m. Monday, packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 and Sasebo in TCCOR 3. Expect upgrades to those sometime Saturday. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

Updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa is due out about 7 a.m. Saturday. Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for winds picking up Sunday, peaking south-southwesterly at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 7 a.m. Monday with showers and thunderstorms, diminishing after that.

From there, landfall is forecast over Korea's south coast at mid-morning Monday.

JTWC forecasts Haishen to pass 17 miles west of Chinhae, 23 west of Daegu-Area IV, 94 east of Kunsan Air Base, 62 east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 48 miles east of Camp Casey between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m. Monday, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts and weakening as it moves inland.

JTWC still reports a spread among solutions, 48 miles 36 hours out and 92 miles three days out. Model track guidance has come into better agreement as have the forecast ensembles on a track further east of Okinawa. Stay tuned.


6:40 p.m. Friday, Sept. 4, Japan/Korea time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Super Typhoon Haishen, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Haishen to pass 155 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 8 a.m. Sunday:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 11 p.m. Saturday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts for northern Okinawa, 46-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts for Kadena: 8 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: Noon Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 3 p.m. Sunday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts 1 to 2 inches of rain associated with Haishen.

Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remains in TCCOR 3. Haishen is forecast to pass 59 miles west of Sasebo at 7 a.m. Monday.

Sasebo's forecast continues to call for showers and thunderstorms with winds picking up Sunday, peaking at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 1 a.m. Monday, stronger than Maysak earlier this week.
***
Haishen continues to hold steady at Category 4-equivalent intensity and is expected to peak at Category 5-equivalent early Saturday morning, then gradually diminish as it stays on its JTWC forecast track, but still threatening Sasebo and South Korea.

At 3 p.m., Haishen was 505 miles southeast of Kadena, 807 miles south-southeast of Sasebo and 946 miles south-southeast of Naval Base Chinhae in South Korea, tracking northwest at 11 mph and packing 155-sustained winds and 191-mph gusts at center.

JTWC forecasts Haishen to briefly peak at Category 5-equivalent strength, 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts, just before passing Okinawa.

If it stays on its present heading, Haishen is forecast to make landfall around noon Monday over Korea's south coast, still packing Category 2-equivalent 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts as it rams ashore.

Haishen is forecast to pass 21 miles west of Chinhae, 29 west of Daegu-Area IV, 90 east of Kunsan Air Base, 57 east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 41 east of Camp Casey between 2 p.m. and midnight Monday, weakening as it moves inland.

JTWC continues to report a spread among solutions, 48 miles 36 hours out and 115 miles three days out. Model-track guidance has shifted east except for the lone outlier, NAVGEM, and the forecast ensembles also show slight movement east. More to follow.


2:30 p.m. Friday, Sept. 4, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.

Time to finish preparing. Complete your shopping, gas up and grab enough money to last a few days in case the power goes out.


12:15 p.m. Friday, Sept. 4, Japan/Korea time: Haishen has been upgraded to a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, the first of the season, by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the most powerful storm on Earth so far this year.

Destructive winds are now forecast for the northern part of Okinawa on Sunday, according to Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

At 9 a.m., Haishen was 567 miles southeast of Kadena, moving northwest at 9 mph, packing 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center. JTWC projects it to reach Category 5-equivalent strength, 161-mph sustained and 196-mph gusts, by Friday afternoon.

JTWC projects Haishen to pass 145 miles east-northest of Kadena at 6 a.m. Sunday, still packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center as it roars past. Haishen's west quadrants, typically the weaker of the four, would be facing the island.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, as does Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan. Expect an upgrade by Saturday morning on Okinawa and Sunday for Sasebo.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from the weather flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 5 a.m. Sunday.
-- Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts for northern Okinawa, 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts for Kadena: 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 5 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Sunday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts 1 to 2 inches of rain associated with Haishen.

As Haishen moves north, JTWC projects it to weaken some, but remain quite the powerful beast as it rumbles past Sasebo and make forecast landfall over Korea's south coast at mid-day Monday, still packing Category 3-equivalent 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts.

Haishen is forecast to pass 63 miles west of Sasebo at 6 a.m. Monday. Sasebo's forecast calls for showers and thunderstorms with winds picking up Sunday, peaking at 69- to 75-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 1 a.m. Monday, stronger than Maysak earlier this week.

Then comes landfall over Korea's south coast. Haishen is forecast to pass 24 miles west of Naval Base Chinhae, 31 west of Daegu-Area IV, 86 east of Kunsan Air Base, 53 east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 41 east of Camp Casey between 2 p.m. and midnight Monday, weakening as it moves inland.

JTWC continues to report a spread among solutions, 80 miles two days out and 115 miles three days out. Model-track guidance remains divided, and forecast ensembles show a similar split. Much can still change.


8:15 a.m. Friday, Sept. 4, Japan/Korea time: Wow. What a monster this thing could become! Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Haishen to peak as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon at mid-afternoon Friday, strongest storm anywhere in the world this summer.

But take heart, folks on Okinawa: Haishen remains due to pass far enough east-northeast of island that destructive winds are not forecast for the moment, according to JTWC's latest track and Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Haishen is forecast to weaken some as it moves north, but remain a strong-enough system to give Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan and the Korean peninsula a solid helping of wind and rain, much like earlier this week with Typhoon Maysak.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Typhoon Haishen, provided by Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight.
U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained wind: Not forecast to occur at this time.
-- Peak 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts for northern Okinawa, 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts for Kadena: 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: Midnight Sunday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts 1 to 2 inches of rain associated with Haishen.

Sasebo Naval Base remains in TCCOR 3 as well. Its extended forecast calls for showers and thunderstorms with winds picking up Sunday, peaking at 58- to 63-mph sustained and 86-mph gusts at 11 p.m. Sunday, lasting into early Monday before diminishing.

At 3 a.m., Haishen was 623 miles southeast of Kadena, moving west-northwest at 9 mph packing Category 4-equivalent winds of 144-mph sustained and 173-mph gusts at center.

If Haishen stays on its present heading, JTWC projects it to peak at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at center at 3 p.m. Friday, still well to Okinawa's southeast.

A Category 5-equivalent super typhoon, first of the Pacific season and strongest anywhere in the world.

JTWC projects Haishen to weaken slightly as it passes 147 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 7 a.m. Sunday, still packing Category 4-equivalent 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at center.

From there, Haishen is forecast to move north-northwest, passing 68 miles west of Sasebo at 7 a.m. Monday as a Category 3-equivalent storm with 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts.

If the current forecast holds, Haishen would become the fifth tropical cyclone to affect South Korea. Landfall is forecast for mid-day Monday over Korea's south coast.

JTWC forecasts Haishen to pass 22 miles west of Naval Base Chinhae, 23 west of Daegu-Area IV, 94 miles east of Kunsan Air Base, 65 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 55 miles east of Camp Casey between 2 and 11 p.m. Monday, steadily weakening as it moves over land.

JTWC reports a spread among solutions between 105-115 miles two to three days out. Model-track guidance and forecast ensembles depict Haishen passing east of Okinawa and close to Sasebo. Still some room for change. Stay tuned.

12:30 a.m. Friday, Sept. 4, Japan/Korea time: U.S. bases on Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 in advance of Typhoon Haishen's forecast arrival.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Haishen to peak as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon late Friday, pass east-northeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at mid-morning Sunday, just west of Sasebo early Monday and through Korea Monday afternoon and evening.

At 9 p.m., Haishen was 667 east-southeast of Kadena, 933 miles south-southeast of Sasebo and 1,078 miles south-southeast of Naval Base Chinhae, South Korea, moving west-northwest at 14 mph, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center.

If Haishen stays on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to peak at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts, Category 4-equivalent strength, what would be the Pacific's first super typhoon and the strongest anywhere in the world this summer.

Haishen is forecast to pass 148 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 9 a.m. Sunday, still packing Category 4-equivalent 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at center.

An updated wind-forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight will publish later this morning.

From there, JTWC projects Haishen to move north-northwest, passing 70 miles west of Sasebo at 6 a.m. Monday, packing Category 3-equivalent 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts.

Sasebo's forecast continues to call for winds ramping up throughout the day Sunday, peaking north-northeast at 58- to 63-mph sustained with 75-mph gusts at 8 p.m. into Monday, shifting to south-southwest and starting to diminish at 4 a.m. Monday.

Next on the forecast itinerary is a fifth visit to the Korean peninsula by a tropical cyclone this season.

If it keeps moving as forecast, Haishen is due to pass 35 miles west of Chinhae, 41 west of Daegu-Area IV, 74 east of Kunsan Air Base, 40 east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 24 west of Camp Casey between 1 and 10 p.m. Monday.

Haishen would still be a Category 1-equivalent storm, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center as it moves inland, following almost in the footsteps of Typhoon Maysak earlier this week.

JTWC reports a spread of about 200 miles among solutions three days out, so much can change in the run-up to closest points of approach to U.S. facilities north of Haishen's current locale. Stay tuned.


9 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 3, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have joined Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 in advance of Typhoon Haishen. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

Here is the initial wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: Not forecast to occur at this time.
-- Peak 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts for Okinawa, 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts for Kadena: 5 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: Midnight Sunday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts 1 to 2 inches of rain associated with Haishen.

Sasebo's forecast continues to call for winds ramping up throughout the day Sunday, peaking north-northeast at 58- to 63-mph sustained with 75-mph gusts at 8 p.m. into Monday, shifting to south-southwest and starting to diminish at 4 a.m. Monday.

6:40 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 3, Japan/Korea time: Yet more weather in store for Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan, the Korean peninsula and possibly for Okinawa, if the current Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast holds regarding Typhoon Hashien.

It remains forecast by JTWC to peak as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon early Saturday, pass northeast of Okinawa early Sunday and threaten Sasebo and Korea on Monday, days after Typhoon Maysak did the same.

Hashien could become the first super typhoon of the season, and the fifth tropical cyclone to threaten Korea. This after an already record monsoon season on peninsula.

At 3 p.m., Haishen was 743 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at 9 mph and had intensified to Category 2-equivalent 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Kadena's forecast calls for winds to peak Sunday, northerly at 37-mph sustained with gusts up to 62 mph and an 80-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.

JTWC forecasts Haishen to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at 3 a.m. Saturday, then weaken slightly as it curves on a track taking it 159 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 8 a.m. Sunday, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts, Category 3-equivalent intensity.

That's at storm's center. JTWC projects Okinawa to be right at the edge of Haishen's forecast 58-mph wind bands. A slight silver lining is that Haishen's west quadrants, typically the weaker of the four, would be facing Okinawa if the forecast holds.

From there, Haishen is forecast to track north-northwest, passing 59 miles west of Sasebo at 7 a.m. Monday. Sasebo remains in TCCOR 3 in advance of Haishen's forecast passage.

Sasebo's forecast continues to call for 58- to 63-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts late Sunday into Monday with showers and thunderstorms.

JTWC projects Haishen to still be packing Category 2-equivalent 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it roars ashore over Korea's south coast at mid-day Monday.

Haishen is forecast to pass 25 miles west of Naval Base Chinhae, 35 west of Daegu-Area IV, 83 east of Kunsan Air Base, 48 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys and 32 miles east of Camp Casey between 2 and 11 p.m. Monday, weakening as it moves inland.

JTWC reports a spread among solutions of 140 miles three days out, with NAVGEM the sole outlier among model-track guidance. Forecast ensembles also show some disparity. Much can still change. Stay tuned.


12:30 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 3, Japan time: No sooner had Typhoon Maysak disappeared over the bend into South Korea than Fleet Activities Sasebo turned its attention to Typhoon Haishen, forecast to affect the area Monday.

Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 as a precaution in the run-up to Haishen. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.


Noon Thursday, Sept. 3, Japan/Korea time: Haishen could become the first super typhoon of the season if the current Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast holds.

It's projected to pass northeast of Okinawa early Sunday and become the latest tropical cyclone to threaten Sasebo Naval Base and South Korea.

At 9 a.m., Haishen was 805 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, 1,055 miles south-southeast of Sasebo and 1,187 miles south-southeast of Naval Base Chinhae in South Korea.

It was moving west-northwest at 11 mph and had strengthened to 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center, Category 2-equivalent intensity.

If it remains on its present heading, JTWC forecasts Haishen to peak at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts, Category 4-equivalent super-typhoon strength, at mid-evening Friday, still well southeast of Okinawa.

That's the bad news. The silver lining, if there is such a thing regarding those beasts, is JTWC forecasts Haishen to pass 167 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 5 a.m. Sunday, with the west quadrants, typically the weaker of the four, facing the island.

Haishen is forecast to keep moving north-northwest, weakening slightly as it passes 74 miles west of Sasebo at 6 a.m. Monday, then making landfall over Korea's south coast at 9 a.m. Monday, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts, Category 2-eqiuvalent strength.

That would make it the fifth and most powerful typhoon of the season to affect the peninsula, and that on top of what was a record monsoon season.

Sasebo's extended weather forecast calls for showers and thunderstorms with north-northeasterly winds shifting south-southwesterly peaking at 58- to 63-mph sustained and 75-mph gusts from 8 p.m. Monday into Tuesday.

JTWC forecasts Haishen to 44 miles west of Chinhae, 62 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 25 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. Monday, weakening as it moves inland. This just five days after Maysak battered peninsula.

Model-track guidance shows a split among solutions five days out as do forecast ensembles. Most solutions show Haishen tracking east and northeast of Okinawa, JTWC reports. Stay tuned. Much can still change.


10:45 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 3, Korea time: Daegu-Area IV, Kunsan Air Base and Osan Air Base are among bases on the Korean peninsula that have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery).

Destructive winds are no longer occurring. Stay indoors until the all clear is sounded and give first responders and staff civil ample time and room to inspect for damage and create safe zones if needed.


9:15 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 3, Japan/Korea time: Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery), while bases in South Korea remain in various states of readiness and recovery regarding Typhoon Maysak.

Maysak continues moving north through the Korean peninsula. Closest points of approach to U.S. bases have come and gone. Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued its final warning on Maysak.

Area IV and Kunsan Air Base base operations are returning to normal. Osan Air Base remains in TCCOR 1-C (caution). But it might take some time for Sasebo to clean up. This was a bad storm, even though it passed some distance west of the base.

Maysak made landfall at 2:20 a.m. near Busan on the southeast coast and is steadily weakening as it moves over land through the eastern portion of peninsula.

But it's still a powerful Category 1-equivalent storm; it made landfall packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center. Gonna take time before things fully calm down.

Meanwhile, the news gets slightly better for Okinawa regarding Typhoon Haishen; its forecast track has edged further east of the island. But Okinawa should still feel some effect. And Haishen is also keeping Sasebo and Korea well within its sights.

At 3 a.m., Haishen was 850 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving west-northwest at 13 mph packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal TCCOR 4.

If Haishen stays on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to peak at Category 4-equivalent intensity, 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at 3 a.m. Saturday, still well southeast of Okinawa.

Haishen is forecast to pass 169 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 5 a.m. Sunday, still packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts.

That's at storm's center. Kadena's extended weather forecast calls for winds to peak Sunday for the island, northerly at 37-mph sustained with gusts up to 62 mph and an 80-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.

JTWC projects Haishen to pass 78 miles west of Sasebo at 3 a.m. Monday still packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo's extended weather forecast calls for winds similar to Wednesday's, north-northeasterly shifting south-southwesterly at 58- to 63-mph sustained and 75-mph gusts overnight Sunday into Monday with showers and thunderstorms.

Then comes yet another forecast visit to the Korean peninsula; this would be the fifth by a typhoon this season should the forecast hold. And on top of what was a record monsoon season.

Haishen is forecast to make landfall over Korea's south coast just after sunrise Monday, passing 57 miles east of Kunsan, 20 miles east of Osan and making near-direct hits on Seoul and Area I camps.

Model track guidance and forecast ensembles have also shifted Haishen slightly further east of Okinawa and a tad closer to Sasebo. Still early yet. Stay tuned.


2:30 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 3, Japan time: Sasebo Naval Base has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Destructive winds are no longer occurring on station. Stay indoors while staff civil and first responders survey damage and establish safe zones, and wait for the all clear to be sounded.


1:15 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 3, Japan/Korea time: Daegu-Area IV has joined Sasebo Naval Base in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency), with 58-mph sustained winds and/or 69-mph gusts occurring on installation.


Midnight Wednesday, Sept. 2, Japan/Korea time: Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) and U.S. bases in Korea are in TCCOR 1 in advance of Typhoon Maysak's forecast arrival.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Haishen has begun curving northwest toward forecast passage ever closer to Okinawa, west of Sasebo and possibly becoming the fifth typhoon to affect Korea this season, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Typhoon Maysak: Closest point of approach by Maysak to Sasebo, 104 miles west at 10 p.m., has come and gone, but sustained 58-mph winds and 69-mph gusts are still being felt on base. Maysak is moving north-northeast at 19 mph.

Stay indoors, even after TCCOR 1-R (recovery) is issued, until the all clear is sounded. During 1-R, staff civil and first responders are out surveying damage and establishing safe zones; give them the time and room to do so. You only get one chance.

Maysak is forecast to pass 36 miles west of Naval Base Chinhae and Daegu-Area IV, 85 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 64 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 2 and 6 a.m. Thursday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center.

U.S. Forces Korea's official Facebook page lists forecast sustained winds and gusts speed. Individual base Facebook pages detail road conditions, services suspensions and shutdowns and delayed reporting for duty.

Bases are urging personnel to shelter in place until the heavy stuff has passed. Most services should reopen late morning or noon Thursday. Maysak is forecast to pass over North Korea and dissipate over China late Thursday.

Typhoon Haishen: At 9 p.m., Haishen was 1,148 miles southeast of Sasebo and 1,125 miles south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, headed west-northwest at 11 mph, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center.

If Haishen stays on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to pass closer, ever closer, to Okinawa, 143 miles east-northeast of Kadena Air Base at 7 a.m. Sunday as a Category 4-equivalent storm, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at storm's center.

Haishen differs in one respect regarding Okinawa; unlike Bavi and Maysak which passed west of island, Haishen is currently forecast to pass east. Meaning the storm's west quadrants, typically the lesser of the four, would be facing island.

That said, model guidance and forecast ensembles continue to edge Haishen's forecast track closer to Okinawa, then just west of Sasebo early Monday and Korea shortly thereafter.

JTWC forecasts Haishen to pass 98 miles west of Sasebo at 5 a.m. Monday, maintaining Category 4-equivalent intensity, before roaring ashore over the Korean peninsula at mid-morning Monday.

Haishen is projected to weaken as it moves over land in Korea, making near-direct hits on Osan and Humphreys between 5 and 6 p.m. Monday. Just days after Maysak. More to follow.

This report to be updated at mid-morning Thursday.


6:45 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 2, Japan/Korea time: Sasebo Naval Base has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) due to Typhoon Maysak, according to the base's official Facebook page. Sustained winds of 58 mph and/or gusts of 69 mph are occurring on station..

Meanwhile, Haishen has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It's forecast to edge closer to Okinawa and remains on course to give Sasebo and South Korea problems early next week.

Typhoon Maysak: At 3 p.m., Maysak was 184 miles southwest of Sasebo, moving north-northeast at 13 mph, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts, Category 3-equivalent intensity.

JTWC forecasts Maysak to pass 122 miles west of Sasebo at 9 p.m. Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and up to 75-mph gusts at 7 p.m., diminishing into the evening and into Thursday.

Next comes a visit to Korea. Maysak is forecast to make landfall around midnight Wednesday, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it roars ashore.

Naval Base Chinhae and Daegu-Area IV remain in TCCOR 1 and Osan Air Base in TCCOR 2. Should sustained winds meet or exceed 58 mph and/or gusts of 69 mph, it's possible to see an upgrade to TCCOR 1-E.

U.S. Forces Korea's official Facebook page displays a graphic with forecast wind speeds and rainfall. Individual base Facebook pages detail road conditions, services suspensions and cancellations and delayed reporting on Thursday.

JTWC forecasts Maysak to pass 42 miles west of Chinhae, 40 miles west of Daegu, 78 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 52 miles east of Osan and Camp Humphreys between 2 and 6 a.m. Thursday, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center, weakening as it moves inland.

Typhoon Haishen: At 3 p.m., it was 1,162 miles south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, and 1,190 miles southeast of Sasebo, moving west at 12 mph packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts.

JTWC forecasts Haishen to peak as a Category 4-equivalent storm, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Saturday, and pass 178 miles east-northeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at 8 a.m. Sunday. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal TCCOR 4.

Kadena's extended weather forecast calls for peak winds Sunday morning, northerly at 32-mph sustained with gusts up to 52 mph and a 50-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Haishen's forecast track continues to shift west, which means slightly better news for Sasebo. It's now due to pass 84 miles west of Sasebo at 5 a.m. Monday, then make landfall over Korea's south coast at mid-morning Monday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

This would be the fifth tropical cyclone to affect Korea in the last six weeks, should the current JTWC forecast hold.

Model track guidance still displays a spread among solutions, as do the forecast ensembles. Stay tuned.


12:15 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 2, Japan/Korea time: Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan and U.S. bases in Korea continue bracing for Maysak's forecast arrival Wednesday evening as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, possibly Category 2.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Haishen's forecast track has edged closer to Okinawa again, though Sasebo and Korea's south coast are much more within its crosshairs for arrival early next week.

Typhoon Maysak: At 9 a.m., Maysak was 245 miles southwest of Sasebo, moving north-northeast at 12 mph and had weakened to 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1; expect upgrade to TCCOR 1-E when conditions warrant early Wednesday evening. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni to the east remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

Sasebo's forecast continues to call for showers and thunderstorms with 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at 7 p.m., diminishing after 11 p.m.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Maysak to be packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts as it makes landfall late Wednesday into Thursday, weakening rapidly as it encounters wind shear and frictional effects from Korea's rugged terrain.

Naval Base Chinhae and Area IV remain in TCCOR 1. Expect 58-mph gusts between 8 p.m. Wednesday and 8 a.m. Thursday, with 3 to 5 inches of rain. Chinhae's and Daegu's official Facebook pages detail closures and suspension of services until mid-day Thursday.

JTWC projects Maysak to pass 40 miles west of Chinhae and Daegu, 81 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 58 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 1 and 5 a.m. Thursday. Humphreys can expect gusts between 50 and 60 mph with 2 to 4 inches of rain.

Tropical Storm Haishen: At 9 a.m., Haishen was 1,153 miles southeast of Iwakuni and 1,212 miles southeast of Sasebo, moving southwest at 13 mph and had intensified to 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts.

JTWC forecasts Haishen to peak at Category 4-equivalent 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts as it makes forecast pass 230 miles east-northeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at 10 a.m. Sunday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal TCCOR 4. Kadena's extended forecast calls for winds ramping up on the weekend, peaking northerly at 32-mph sustained and gusts up to 52 mph Sunday morning.

JTWC's forecast track has edged a bit further west, with closest point of approach to Sasebo 31 miles west-southwest at 4 a.m. Monday and to Iwakuni 184 miles west-southwest an hour later.

Sasebo's weather forecast calls for calming conditions later this week, but winds ramping up again late Saturday, north-northeast at 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at 10 p.m., likely to increase as Haishen approaches.

Model-track guidance
and the forecast ensembles agree on a northwest track toward Kyushu, but with quite a few outliers. Stay tuned.


10 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 2, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo and Fleet Activities Chinhae have directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 in advance of Typhoon Maysak. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.

CFAS also says on its official Facebook page that it plans to direct TCCOR 1-E (emergency) at 7 p.m. or when destructive winds are observed on station. The Facebook page also details shutdowns and suspensions of base services when the heavy stuff moves in.


9:30 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 2, Japan/Korea time: Man, looks like Sasebo Naval Base could be in for a double whammy, both Wednesday and next Monday, if Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track for Typhoon Maysak and Tropical Storm Haishen hold.

Maysak is due to sideswipe Sasebo late Wednesday, with gusty winds and showers and thunderstorms likely. But Monday, Haishen is forecast to possibly make a near-direct hit on Sasebo packing Category 2-equivalent winds, according to JTWC.

In the meantime, Korea can expect some strong effects from Maysak as it roars ashore later Wednesday into Thursday.

Typhoon Maysak: At 3 a.m., Maysak was 321 miles southwest of Sasebo, moving north-northeast at 13 mph packing Category 3-equivalent 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 Wednesday morning, with TCCOR 1 possible at any point. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

Sasebo's forecast continues to call for showers and thunderstorms with 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at 7 p.m. Wednesday, diminishing by late evening.

Sasebo's official Facebook page said TCCOR 1-E (emergency) could be possible Wednesday evening for a few hours depending on whether destructive winds hit the base.

From there, Maysak is forecast to push north, ramming ashore over Korea's south coast late Wednesday and maintaining 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it moves over Korea's rough terrain.

JTWC projects Maysak to pass 56 miles west of Naval Base Chinhae at midnight. Area IV is in TCCOR 1, according to Daegu's official Facebook page, which details closures and scheduled suspensions of base services Thursday morning.

Chinhae can expect with 58-mph gusts forecats for 8 p.m. Wednesday to 6 a.m. Thursday and 3 to 5 inches of rain.

Maysak is forecast to pass 52 miles west of Daegu, 65 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 47 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 2 and 6 a.m. Thursday. Humphreys can expect gusts between 50 and 60 mph and 2 to 4 inches of rain.

Tropical Storm Haishen: At 3 a.m., Haishen was 1,059 miles southeast of Iwakuni and 1,206 miles southeast of Sasebo, moving southwest at 8 mph and packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.

If Haishen's forecast holds, JTWC projects it to curve northwest in a day or so, steadily strengthening to a peak of 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts, Category 4-equivalent intensity, at 3 a.m. Sunday.

Haishen is forecast to pass 277 miles east-northeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at 8 a.m. Sunday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa reverted to seasonal TCCOR 4 at 6:30 a.m. Wednesday after Maysak's departure, according to Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight. It stated in an email that sustained 40- to 57-mph winds are possible Sunday due to Haishen's proximity.

From there, Haishen is due to weaken as it moves northwest, passing 12 miles west of Sasebo at midnight Wednesday, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts.

Forecast ensembles do show some spread among solutions but a general northwest track as Haishen approaches southwestern Japan. Stay tuned.


12:10 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 2, Japan/Korea time: Typhoon Maysak continues moving north, on course to sideswipe Sasebo Naval Base to its west, then ram ashore over South Korea late Wednesday into Thursday as a Category 2-equivalent storm.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm 11W continues its slow march southwest, with Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track eventually taking it northwest over Kyushu in southwestern Japan late Sunday as a Category 3-equivalent storm, passing just east of Sasebo.

Typhoon Maysak: At 9 p.m., it was 167 miles north-northwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and 386 miles south-southwest of Sasebo, moving north at 9 mph, still packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center.

If Maysak continues on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to pass 132 miles west of Sasebo at 7 p.m. Wednesday, still packing Category 2-equivalent 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2; expect that to be upgraded to TCCOR 1 sometime Wednesday morning. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni well to the east was in TCCOR Storm Watch.

Sasebo's forecast continues to call for showers and thunderstorms and 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts at 8 p.m. Wednesday into Thursday.

From there, Maysak is forecast to ram ashore over Korea's south coast late Wednesday into Thursday, weakening gradually as it transits over Korea's mountainous terrain.

JTWC forecasts Maysak to pass 62 miles west of Naval Base Chinhae, which has upgraded to TCCOR 2, at midnight Wednesday. Chinhae's forecast calls for 58-mph gusts between 8 p.m. Wednesday and 6 a.m. Thursday with 3 to 5 inches of rain.

Maysak is projected to pass 61 miles west of Daegu-Area IV, 57 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 35 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 2 and 5 a.m. Thursday. Humphreys can expect gusts between 50 and 60 mph and 2 to 4 inches of rain.

Tropical Storm 11W: At 9 p.m., it was 1,244 miles southeast of Iwakuni and 1,178 miles southeast of Sasebo, moving southwest at 6 mph and holding steady at 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

If 11W's forecast track holds, JTWC projects it to curve northwest, passing 327 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 6 a.m. Sunday, strengthening to a Category 4-equivalent 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts as it approaches Kyushu late Sunday.

11W is projected to split the difference between Sasebo and Iwakuni, passing 98 miles east of Sasebo and 133 miles west of Iwakuni at 9 p.m. Sunday, still a powerful beast, packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center.

There remains a split among solutions, JTWC reports, 104 miles three days out and 190 miles five days out, and the GFS forecast ensemble shows a similar divide. So much can change. Still very early in the life of a young storm. Stay tuned.


7 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 1, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Winds are no longer forecast to exceed 58-mph sustained, but there remains a chance of high winds due to storm's proximity to Okinawa. Facilities will reopen two hours after Storm Watch was issued.


6:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 1, Japan/Korea time: Not a moment too soon, Typhoon Maysak has intensified into a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, but has put Okinawa in its rear-view mirror as it heads north toward Korea.

Meanwhile, 11W well to the southeast has been upgraded to a tropical storm and is forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to move toward Kyushu and western Honshu in Japan next weekend or early next week.

Typhoon Maysak: U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Stay indoors until the all clear is sounded, to give time to first responders and staff civil to establish safe zones and clear damage.

At 3 p.m., Maysak was 138 miles northwest of Kadena Air Base and had slowed, moving north at 6 mph and intensified to 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts.

As it moves north, Maysak is forecast to weaken slightly as it passes 129 miles west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan, still packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo remains in TCCOR 2, with TCCOR 1 to be issued early Wednesday, while Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni is in TCCOR Storm Watch, according to those bases' official Facebook pages.

Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for showers and thunderstorms with 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts at 8 p.m. Wednesday into Thursday.

JTWC next forecasts Maysak to make landfall over Korea's south coast just past midnight Wednesday, still packing Category 2-equivalent intensity, 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts.

Maysak is forecast to pass 48 miles west of Naval Base Chinhae, which remains in TCCOR 3, at midnight Wednesday. Chinhae's official Facebook page says 58-mph gusts are forecast between 8 p.m. Wednesday and 9 a.m. Thursday.

JTWC projects Maysak to pass 46 miles west of Daegu-Area IV, 73 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 48 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 1 and 5 a.m. Thursday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts, weakening as it moves over Korea's rugged terrain.

Humphreys' official Facebook page says to expect gusts between 50 and 60 mph and between 2 to 4 inches of rain associated with Maysak.

Tropical Storm 11W: Way too early, this is, to draw definite conclusions about this still-developing cyclone. Model-track guidance illustrates how much of a divide there is late term among solutions.

At 3 p.m., 11W was 1,173 miles southeast of Iwakuni and 1,237 miles southeast of Sasebo, moving southwest at 8 mph.

If 11W continues moving as forecast, it's due to arc northwest, and according to JTWC peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts as it approaches Kyushu late Sunday afternoon.

 Its current forecast track calls for 11W to pass 324 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 6 a.m. Sunday. Though expected to pass far from the island, Kadena's weather flight said in an email to expect crosswind and elevated wave-height conditions later this week. Stay tuned.


4:45 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 1, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Destructive winds are no longer occurring on island. Stay indoors until the all clear is sounded. Give staff civil and first responders time to establish safe zones and inspect damage.

Non-essential functions remain closed unless directed by the commander. All but emergency essential personnel remain in their quarters. This is not the time to venture from your quarters; the danger has not passed. If anything, it’s worse than during the storm as power lines and tree branches may be scattered everywhere. Water mains may be broken and flooding may be occurring. A gas line could be ruptured and cause a devastating explosion. There is no set time period for how long TCCOR 1-R would last. It can last for one hour; it can last for three days. It all depends on how much damage is present, how long it takes to clean up and get the bases back up to speed.


1 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 1, Japan/Korea time: Here is the latest Okinawa wind-forecast time from Typhoon Maysak, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency):

-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 3 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Tuesday.

A reminder: When destructive winds have abated and TCCOR 1-R is issued by 18th Wing, that is NOT to the time to go out and about. If anything, that may be a more dangerous time than during TCCOR 1-E.

Staff civil and first responders would be fanning out to survey damage and establish safe zones around flooded areas, downed trees and power lines, damaged buildings, etc. They'll need time and space to work. Please give it to them. And wait for the all clear to be sounded.
***
At 9 a.m., Maysak was 107 miles west-northwest of Kadena, moving north-northwest at 13 mph and according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center has peaked at just below Category 4-equivalent intensity, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center.

Okinawa continues to get rain and gusty winds from Maysak's southeast quadrant, typically the strongest of the four. Kind of like Bavi last week, only more intense, stronger winds and heavier rain.

JTWC projects Maysak to keep moving generally north, gradually weakening as it goes, passing 134 miles west-northwest of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at 7 p.m. Wednesday, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo remains in TCCOR 2; its official Facebook page said to expect upgrade to TCCOR 1 early Wednesday. The base's extended weather forecast calls for showers and thunderstorms with 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at about 8 p.m. Wednesday into Thursday.

Maysak is forecast by JTWC to make landfall over Korea's south coast about 9 or 10 p.m. Wednesday, still packing Category 2-equivalent 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it rams ashore.

Naval Base Chinhae remains in TCCOR 3; expect that to be upgraded sometime Tuesday evening or early Wednesday. Gusts of 58 mph are forecast between 10 p.m. Wednesday and 11 a.m. Thursday, according to Chinhae's official Facebook page.

JTWC forecasts Maysak to pass 56 miles west of Chinhae, 48 miles west of Daegu-Area IV, 69 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 53 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 11 p.m. Wednesday and 3 a.m. Thursday. A blustery evening in store. Stay tuned.


7:30 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 1, Japan/Korea time: Here are the latest wind-forecast timelines for Okinawa and Naval Base Chinhae, from Typhoon Maysak, provided by Kadena Air  Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight and Chinhae's official Facebook page.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) and Chinhae in TCCOR 3:

Okinawa
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Tuesday.
Peak 63-mph sustained winds and 101-mph gusts were recorded in Okinawa's southern reaches and 50-mph sustained winds and 79-mph gusts at Kadena at 11:50 p.m. Monday.

Chinhae
-- Onset of 58-mph gusts: 10 p.m. Wednesday.
-- Peak 81-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts: 10 p.m. Wednesday.
-- Gusts subsiding below 50 mph: 11 a.m. Thursday.
***
Closest point of approach by Maysak to Kadena has come and gone, 77 miles west-southwest at 4 a.m. Tuesday, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at storm's center.

Sustained destructive winds should subside by mid-day Tuesday and sustained 40-mph winds by mid-evening, the Weather Flight reports.

If Maysak stays on its present heading, it's forecast to peak at Category 4-equivalent intensity, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Tuesday.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Maysak to move generally north, passing 130 miles west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at 8 p.m. Wednesday, packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo remains in TCCOR 3, with TCCOR 2 expected to be issued at 8 a.m. Tuesday, according the base's official Facebook page.

The base's extended weather forecast continues to call for 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts at 10 p.m. Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms, extending into Thursday.

Then, it's off to Korea, with Maysak forecast to continue packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it makes landfall late Wednesday into Thursday.

JTWC projects Maysak to pass 43 miles west of Chinhae, 36 miles west of Daegu-Areai IV, 81 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 70 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 1 and 6 a.m. Thursday, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center as it moves over land.

Storm Tracker will provide updates on Tropical Storm 11W as it continues to develop into what could be a Category 3-equivalent storm, perhaps stronger, and move closer to west-central Japan. But that's at least five days away. Stay tuned.


1 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 1, Japan time: Here is the latest Okinawa wind-forecast timeline for Typhoon Maysak, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency).

-- Peak 75-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts for Okinawa, 69-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts for Kadena: 3 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Tuesday.

Weather Flight forecasts between 4 to 6 inches of rain associated with Maysak.

Reminder: STAY INSIDE! Please do not take unnecessary chances and risks out there, especially in the southern reaches of Okinawa. Already, a gust of 101 mph was measured in Nanjo, east of the prefectural capital of Naha. You only get one chance. Make the most of it!


Midnight Monday, Aug. 31, Japan/Korea time: A new tropical depression has spawned about 800 miles south of Tokyo. Joint Typhoon Warning Center and model-track guidance depict Tropical Depression 11W moving northwest toward Shikoku Island in southwestern Japan.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Maysak continues strengthening and is forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass southwest of Okinawa about 3 a.m. Tuesday at just-below Category 4-equivalent intensity.

Typhoon Maysak: At 9 p.m., Maysak was 110 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base and had slowed down some, moving north-northwest at 12 mph, packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) and should remain that way for some time to come. An updated wind-forecast timeline will be published when made available by Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

If Maysak stays on its present course, JTWC forecasts it to move generally north, peaking at Category 4-equivalent intensity, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts about six hours after passing 70 miles southwest of Kadena at 3 a.m. Tuesday.

Okinawa should be well inside JTWC's forecast destructive wind bands and the stronger east quadrants would be facing the island.

Once out of the area, Maysak is forecast to move generally north, passing 115 miles west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at 8 p.m. Wednesday.

Sasebo remains in TCCOR 3. The base's extended weather forecast continues to call for 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts at 10 p.m. Wednesday, with showers and thunderstorms. Sasebo's official Facebook page stated TCCOR 2 could be issued at 8 a.m. Tuesday.

From there, Maysak is due to make landfall over Korea's south coast late Wednesday, still packing Category 2-equivalent winds, 110-mph sustained and 132-mph gusts as it roars ashore.

JTWC projects Maysak to pass 40 miles west of Naval Base Chinhae (still in TCCOR 4), 37 miles west of Daegu-Area IV, 82 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 62 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 1 and 6 a.m. Thursday, weakening as it moves over Korea's rugged terrain.

Tropical Depression 11W: At 9 p.m., it was 313 miles east-southeast of Iwo Jima and 1,121 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, moving southwest at 14 mph with 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.

If 11W stays on its present heading, JTWC projects it to keep moving southwest for two days, then turn northwest, peaking at 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center, still well offshore five days out. GFS forecast ensembles show it moving toward Shikoku six days out, with plenty of outliers among solutions. Stay tuned.


10 p.m. Monday, Aug. 31, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency). Actual destructive sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are actually occurring. All outdoor activity is prohibited. Stay indoors until the all clear is issued.

At 58 mph sustained, winds are such that it becomes difficult to stand up or walk outside, your car weaves back and forth and could be forced off the road if you attempt to drive and even the most innocuous of objects can become dangerous projectiles. If off base, do not go visiting areas such as Bolo Point or Maeda Point on Okinawa to see the breakers; a maverick wave could pull you into the drink. Do not attempt to go surfing in such conditions. U.S. Forces Japan Instruction 15-4001, regarding tropical cyclones, are written the way they are for a reason – to protect you and keep you and yours safe. The best advice is to stay indoors and ride it out.


UPDATED at 9 p.m. Monday, Aug. 31, Japan time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued on disturbance 95W Invest by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 7:30 p.m., it was about 900 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, Japan, and forecast to move southwest, then curve sharply northwest toward central Japan. More to follow.


7:15 p.m. Monday, Aug. 31, Japan time: Here is the latest Okinawa wind-forecast timeline for Typhoon Maysak, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution):

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: Occuring.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 9 p.m. Monday.
-- Peak 75-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts for southern Okinawa, 69-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts for Kadena: 1 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 6 a.m. Wednesday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 7 to 9 inches of rain associated with Maysak.
***
The Ryukyu Shimpo newspaper reported that Naha Airport, the Yui Monorail and public buses will remain closed or suspended until noon Tuesday due to Maysak. Authorities will determine when to restart bus operations by 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Japan Meterological Agency has had Okinawa under a strong wind warning since 1:29 p.m. Monday.


6:40 p.m. Monday, Aug. 31, Japan/Korea time: Typhoon Maysak still has the pedal to the metal, relatively speaking, moving quickly north-northwest. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts it to pass southwest of Okinawa early Tuesday as a Category 3-equivalent storm.

Meanwhile, 95W Invest continues lurking well south of Tokyo, and model-track guidance and forecast ensembles depict it moving north-northwest toward the Nagoya area in central Japan by this weekend, but with a gaggle of outliers among solutions.

Typhoon Maysak: At 3 p.m., Maysak was 166 miles south of Kadena Air Base and 764 miles south of Fleet Activities Chinhae in South Korea, moving north-northwest at a brisk 21 mph packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) at 6 p.m., with winds between 39 and 57 mph occuring on a base or bases on island. Updated wind-forecast timeline to be published as soon as its available.

If Maysak stays on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to pass 70 miles southwest of Kadena at 1 a.m. Tuesday, packing Category 3-equivalent 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center. A spread of 57 miles remains among solutions, JTWC reports.

At time of closest point of approach, Okinawa would be within Maysak's JTWC-forecast destructive wind bands, with the stronger east quadrants facing the island, peaking at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Tuesday.

Once out of the area, JTWC forecasts Maysak to pass 134 miles west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at 7 p.m. Wednesday, still packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo remains in TCCOR 3. The base's extended weather forecast continues to call for peak 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts at 10 p.m. Wednesday, continuing into Thursday with showers and thunderstorms.

Then comes a visit to Korea. The latest forecast track has Maysak bisecting peninsula, slightly better news for the bases on the southeast coast, but not so much for those on the west coast.

JTWC projects Maysak to pass 61 miles west of Chinhae (which remains in TCCOR 4), 57 miles west of Daegu-Area IV, 62 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 45 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between midnight Wednesday at 5 a.m. Thursday.

95W Invest: At 3 p.m., it was 810 miles south of Yokosuka Naval Base. JTWC forecasts 95W to track briefly southwest, then make a hairpin turn northwest and move toward Nagoya in central Japan by this weekend. But a ton of outliers remain. Stay tuned.


4:45 p.m. Monday, Aug. 31, Korea time: Here is the wind-forecast timeline for Fleet Activities Chinhae and Busan, South Korea, from Typhoon Maysak. Chinhae remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 11 p.m. Wednesday.
-- Peak 98-mph sustained winds, 121-mph gusts: 1 a.m. Thursday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 4 a.m. Thursday.

Chinhae and Busan can expect between 3 to 5 inches of rain associated with Maysak.


3:45 p.m. Monday, Aug. 31, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.


3:45 p.m. Monday, Aug. 31, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) at 3:45 p.m. in advance of Typhoon Maysak. Winds between 40 and 46 mph are occurring on a particular base on island.

Time to get indoors and stay there. All non-essential personnel are released to their quarters. Exchange, commissaries, shoppettes, gas stations, services facilities, clubs, restaurants, recreational facilities and the post office will close. Movement around the base should be kept to a minimum. Security forces and MPs will enforce an “essential vehicles only” policy.


12:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 31, Japan time: Typhoon Maysak put the pedal to the metal the last six hours or so, moving more quickly north than previously reported and could pass Okinawa earlier than expected, sometime before sunrise Tuesday, Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports.

At 9 a.m., Maysak was 278 miles south of Kadena Air Base, chugging north at 19 mph and had strengthened to 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Expect upgraded to TCCOR 1-C (caution) as soon as 38-mph sustained winds are happening on a base somewhere on island.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive winds: 8 p.m. Monday.
-- Peak 86-mph sustained winds and 110-mph gusts for southern Okinawa, 75-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts for Kadena: 5 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 6 a.m. Wednesday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58 mph (50 knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 7 to 9 inches of rain associated with Maysak.

If Maysak keeps on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to pass 64 miles southwest of Kadena at 5 a.m. Tuesday as a Category 4-equivalent storm, a few hours before peaking at a forecast 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts.

Okinawa would be well within the JTWC-forecast destructive windbands, and the east quadrants, typically the more fierce of the four, would be facing island.

From there, JTWC forecasts Maysak to move north, passing 113 miles west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at 6 p.m. Wednesday, again, earlier than previously reported.

Sasebo has set TCCOR 4; expect that to be upgraded as Maysak moves north. The base's extended weather forecast continues to call for winds picking up Wednesday, peaking at 52- to 58-mph sustained and 69-mph gusts at 10 p.m. Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

Korea remains next on Maysak's itinerary, with landfall projected for late Wednesday into Thursday, still packing Category 2 or 3 equivalent winds as it rams ashore.

Fleet Activities Chinhae on Korea's southeast coast has set TCCOR 4; expect that to upgrade as Maysak approaches and Daegu-Area IV has alerted its people, too.

Maysak is forecast to pass 18 miles west of Daegu and 25 miles west of Chinhae, 100 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 87 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between midnight Wednesday and 5 a.m. Thursday,

Then there's 95W Invest, which continues lurking south of the Tokyo area, 882 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, JTWC reports that it's forecast to develop and move northwest toward central Japan in the next couple of days. Stay tuned.


8 a.m. Monday, Aug. 31, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within  12 hours.

Fill any containers you can use for water storage. Move sensitive items away from windows or cover with plastic. Set refrigerators/freezers to highest setting in case power goes out. If you live in low-lying quarters, make arrangements to stay with a friend living on higher ground. Make final check of food and other supplies.


7:30 a.m. Monday, Aug. 31, Japan/Korea time: Here is the latest Okinawa wind-forecast timeline for Typhoon Maysak, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2.

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 8 p.m. Monday.
-- Peak 86-mph sustained winds and 110-mph gusts for southern Okinawa, 75-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts for Kadena: 8 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 6 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 6 a.m. Wednesday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 7 to 9 inches of rain associated with Maysak.
***
At 3 a.m., Maysak was 395 miles south of Kadena, moving north at 15 mph packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

If Maysak continues on its present course, Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts it to peak at Category 4-equivalent intensity at mid-afternoon Tuesday, after forecast closest point of approach to Kadena, 65 miles southwest at 8 a.m. Tuesday.

Okinawa would be well within Maysak's JTWC-forecast destructive wind bands, and its east quadrants, the stronger of the four, would be facing the island.

Once out of the area, JTWC projects Maysak to continue north, passing 112 miles west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at 10 p.m. Wednesday.

Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch. The base's extended weather forecast calls for winds picking up Wednesday, peaking at 52- to 58-mph sustained and 69-mph gusts at 10 p.m. Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

Maysak is next due to make landfall about 3 a.m. Thursday over Korea's southern coast, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it roars ashore.

JTWC forecasts Maysak to pass 25 miles west of Daegu-Area IV 29 miles west of Naval Base Chinhae, 100 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 73 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 3 and 9 a.m. Thursday as Maysak moves north, weakening as it goes.

Next update about 1:30 p.m. Monday. Stay safe, Okinawa!


1:30 a.m. Monday, Aug. 31, Japan/Korea time: Here is the latest Okinawa wind-forecast timeline for Typhoon Maysak, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2.

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 9 p.m. Monday.
-- Peak 86-mph sustained winds and 110-mph gusts for southern Okinawa, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts for Kadena: 8 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 6 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 5 a.m. Wednesday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 7 to 9 inches of rain associated with Maysak.
***
With every passing update, Maysak's Joint Typhoon Warning Center-forecast track edges closer to Okinawa. It's now due to pass 64 miles southwest of island at 7 a.m. Tuesday packing Category 4-equivalent strength.

At 9 p.m., Maysak was 488 miles south of Kadena, moving north-northwest at 13 mph, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center.

If Maysak continues moving on its present course, JTWC forecasts it to peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center at 9 a.m. Tuesday, Category 4-equivalent intensity, just after closest point of approach to Okinawa.

The island would be well inside the JTWC-forecast destructive wind bands, with the east quadrants, typically the stronger of the four, facing Okinawa.

Once out of the area, Maysak is forecast to curve north-northeast, passing 106 miles west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at midnight Wednesday.

Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch. Its extended weather forecast continues to call for peak winds east-southeasterly at 40- to 46-mph sustained with 63-mph gusts at 1 a.m. Thursday.

Korea is next, according to JTWC's forecast track. Maysak is projected to be packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts as it roars ashore early Thursday morning, bisecting peninsula as it pushes north.

JTWC forecasts Maysak to pass 41 miles west-northwest of Naval Base Chinhae and Daegu-Area IV, 79 miles east-southeast of Kunsan Air Base and 56 miles east-southeast of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 6 and 10 a.m. Thursday, rapidly weakening as it moves north.

JTWC reports that model solutions are in tight agreement, and model-track guidance shows similar.

Next update just past 7 a.m. Monday. Stay tuned and get your safe on!


7 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 30, Japan time: Here is the latest Okinawa wind-forecast timeline for Typhoon Maysak, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2.

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: Midnight Monday.
-- Peak 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts for southern Okinawa, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts for Kadena: 7 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 6 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Wednesday.

Reminder that 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with Maysak. Next update about 1 a.m. Monday.


6:40 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 30, Japan/Korea time: The news worsens a bit for Okinawa: Typhoon Maysak's latest forecast track edges it closer to the island early Tuesday morning, with Korea still in for a gusty, rainy visit on Thursday.

Meanwhile, a new disturbance, 95W Invest, has spawned and for the moment lurks well south of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area. Something to keep an eye on for later in the week.

Typhoon Maysak: It has begun moving north-northwest in earnest. At 3 p.m., Maysak was 565 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving north-northeast at 13 mph and had strengthened to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. An updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa will be published here once available from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Maysak to peak at Category 4-equivalent intensity, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center, move north-northwest and pass 82 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 6 a.m. Tuesday, maintaining that intensity.

Okinawa's southern reaches should get the worst of Maysak should the current forecast hold. But large portions of the island would be within JTWC's forecast 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind bands, with plenty of rain accompanying the gustiness.

All of this link is in Japanese, Okinawa City, just outside Kadena's Gate 2, but the blue umbrella icons in the third row should give an indication of rainfall, with the amber arrows indicating wind speed.

Winds of 21 meters per second equates to about 47 mph and 21 millimeters of rain is more than three-quarters of an inch. That's per hour, campers. With plenty to come. Avoid low-lying areas when possible and park your car in high locales, is the best advice.

Once out of the Okinawa area, JTWC projects Maysak to hook north-northeast, passing 125 miles west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at about 11 p.m. Wednesday.

Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch. The base's extended weather forecast continues to call for winds picking up Wednesday, peaking east-southeasterly at 40- to 46-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts early Thursday morning, with showers and thunderstorms.

Next is a visit to Korea. Maysak is forecast to maintain 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts as it approaches Korea's south coast, with landfall forecast for late Wednesday or early Thursday.

JTWC projects Maysak to pass 41 miles west-northwest of Naval Base Chinhae, 31 miles west-northwest of Daegu-Area IV, 84 miles east-southeast of Kunsan Air Base and 75 miles east-southeast of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 3 and 8 a.m. Thursday, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts.

Model solutions have come into better agreement, JTWC reports: 81 miles 1 1/2 days out, decreasing to just 32 miles three days out, but increasing to nearly 250 miles five days out. ECMWF and UKMET ensembles remain the sole outliers well to the southwest of Okinawa.

95W Invest: Then, there's this new disturbance. JTWC reports that at 3 p.m. Sunday, 95W was nearly 920 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, Japan. JTWC projects minimal development as it moves north-northwest, except for ECMWF, which depicts similar movement, but significant development. Stay tuned.




1:45 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 30, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.

This is when your preparation should be completed. Finish removing or securing all outside items. As a last-minute precaution, gas up the car and visit the bank or the ATM to stock up on enough cash and local currency to last as long as three days. Pregnant women in their third trimester should contact 18th Medical Group or the new U.S. Naval Hospital on Camp Foster about whether they should stay there for the duration of the storm. You may also notice that sales of alcohol will be cut off at the shoppette or Exchange at a certain point; that’s to ensure personnel are ready at a minute’s notice to help clean up storm damage or immediate emergencies, instead of being incapacitated by the “typhoon party.”


1:30 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 30, Japan/Korea time: Here is the latest Okinawa wind-forecast timeline for Typhoon Maysak, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: Midnight Monday.
-- Peak 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts for southern Okinawa, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts for Kadena: Noon Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 6 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Wednesday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency), subject to direction by 18th Wing commanding officer.

Weather Flight also forecasts between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with Maysak.

Maysak remains forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to peak as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center as it passes 115 miles southwest of Kadena at noon Tuesday.

Though not forecast to make a direct hit on island, Maysak's east quadrants, typically the stronger of the four, would either be facing or moving over Okinawa. A scenario similar to Bavi last week, only with stronger winds, if the current forecast holds.

At 9 a.m., Maysak was 651 miles south of Kadena and still crawling slowly west-northwest at 3 mph, moving in what JTWC terms an uncertain steering environment; hence, why the forecast wind timeline shows something of a delay in heavy winds for Okinawa.

JTWC forecasts Maysak to turn north-northwest later Sunday and intensifying rapidly, then curving north-northeast as it approaches the Korean peninsula, making landfall over the south coast early Thursday morning.

Maysak is forecast to pass 140 miles west-northwest of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at 10 p.m. Wednesday. Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

Sasebo's extended forecast continues to call for winds to pick up Wednesday, peaking at 40- to 46-mph sustained with 63-mph gusts at 1 a.m. Thursday.

JTWC projects Maysak to maintain 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it passes 51 miles west-northwest of Naval Base Chinhae, 41 miles west-northwest of Daegu-Area IV, 75 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and 63 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 3 and 8 a.m. Thursday.

JTWC continues to report a spread among solutions, 104 miles 2 1/2 days out and 213 miles five days out. Model track guidance shows Maysak splitting the difference between Okinawa and Miyako two days out. Much can still change. Stay tuned.


7:30 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 30, Japan time: Here is the latest Okinawa wind-forecast timeline for Typhoon Maysak, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on island remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 10 p.m. Monday.
-- Peak 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts for Okinawa, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts for Kadena: 10 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 3 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Wednesday.

Reminder, 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with Maysak. Next update at about 1 p.m. Sunday.


6:40 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 30, Japan/Korea time: Maysak has been upgraded to a typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and could peak as a Category 4-equivalent beast just prior to passing southwest of Okinawa at mid-morning Tuesday.

Korea remains in the crosshairs; JTWC projects Maysak to remain a Category 2-equivalent storm as it reaches the south coast of peninsula early Thursday morning. Not good news for either locale.

At 3 a.m., Maysak was 672 miles south of Kadena Air Base, crawling west-northwest at 4 mph with 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

If Maysak remains on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to curve north Sunday afternoon and rapidly intensify as it goes, peaking at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at 3 a.m. Tuesday, then passing 95 miles southwest of Kadena at 10 a.m.

Passage west of Okinawa would mean Maysak's east quadrants, typically the stronger of the four, would be facing Okinawa, similar to Bavi last week, only Maysak's forecast winds would be stronger if the JTWC forecast holds.

An updated wind-forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight will be published once it becomes available.

There remains a spread in solutions, about 145 miles, JTWC reports. Model-track guidance shows similar. The ECMWF and UKMET forecast ensembles show a track southwest of Okinawa, while the GFS ensembles still favor a track a bit closer to island, with some outliers.

Once past Okinawa, JTWC forecasts Maysak to keep pushing north-northwest, then curve north-northeast toward Korea, maintaining 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts as it rams ashore just past midnight Wednesday.

Sasebo Naval Base could feel some of Maysak's effects; it's due to pass 132 miles west-northwest of Sasebo at 10 p.m. Wednesday just before reaching Korea. Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

Sasebo's extended weather forecast calls for winds to pick up starting Wednesday, peaking at 40- to 46-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at 1 a.m. Thursday, diminishing from there.

Maysak is then forecsat to pass 50 miles west-northwest of Naval Base Chinhae, 75 miles east-southeast of Kunsan Air Base and 42 miles west-northwest of Daegu-Area IV between 4 and 6 a.m. Thursday. All remain in seasonal TCCOR 4 for the moment.

This would be the fourth tropical cyclone to affect Korea this season, following Hagupit, Jangmi and Bavi, on top of what was a record monsoon season.


12:15 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 30, Japan time: A couple of nuggets of slightly better news for Okinawa regarding Tropical Storm Maysak.

The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center track nudges Maysak a tad further southwest of Okinawa than previously reported. And it's forecast to peak at Category 3-equivalent winds, a bit less than previously reported.

At 9 p.m., Maysak was 666 miles south of Kadena Air Base, crawling west-northwest at 4 mph and holding steady at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. An updated wind-forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight is due out about 7 a.m. Sunday and will be posted here shortly after.

If Maysak stays on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to peak at 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center at mid-evening Monday and hold that intensity as it passes 100 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 7 a.m. Tuesday.

There remains a spread among model solutions. JTWC reports a spread of 105 miles two days out, increasing to 161 miles three days out.

Model-track guidance has shifted a bit west of Okinawa. The EMCWF and UKMET forecast ensembles push Maysak as far west as Miyako, while the GFS ensembles favor a track closer to Okinawa, with many outliers.

From there, JTWC projects Maysak to push north, then dogleg northeast toward Korea's south coast, still packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts as it roars ashore early Thursday morning.

Maysak is forecast to pass 124 miles west-northwest of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at 1 a.m. Thursday. Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

Closest point of approach to Naval Base Chinhae is 39 miles west-northwest and to Daegu-Area IV is 30 miles northwest. Both areas remain in seasonal TCCOR 4 for the moment; expect that to change sometime Monday.


7 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 29, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Tropical Storm Maysak, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds, 10 p.m. Monday.
-- Peak 86-mph sustained winds and 110-mph gusts for Okinawa, 75-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts for Kadena: 6 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 3 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 9 a.m. Wednesday.

Reminder: 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) for TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 7 to 9 inches of rain associated with Maysak.

Next update on Maysak at around midnight Saturday. Next updated wind-forecast timeline just past sunrise Sunday. Get your safe on, Okinawa!


6:30 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 29, Japan/Korea time: Tropical Storm Maysak has begun moving north-northwest toward Okinawa. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Maysak to pass southwest of the island early Tuesday morning as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon.

At 3 p.m., Maysak was 675 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving north-northwest at 7 mph and holding steady at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

If Maysak stays on present heading, JTWC forecass it to peak at 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center, Category 4-equivalent strength, by mid-afternoon Monday as it approaches Okinawa.

JTWC forecasts Maysak to pass 66 miles southwest of Kadena at 5 a.m. Tuesday, maintaining Category 4-equivalent intensity at center. Okinawa could be within JTWC-forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands and at the edge of the 64-knot (74-mph) wind bands.

An updated wind-forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight will be posted once available.

There still remains uncertainty regarding Maysak's forecast track. JTWC continues to report a spread of 196 miles among solutions. Model-track guidance has shifted slightly west in the last 12 hours.

ECMWF and UKMET forecast ensembles have also shifted west of Okinawa during the day Saturday, while the GFS ensembles favor a track closer to Okinawa instead of east as reported earlier. Plenty of outliers remain among solutions, so much can still change.

Once it moves out of the Okinawa area, Maysak is forecast by JTWC to track generally north, then northeast at mid-day Wednesday, then come ashore over Korea's south coast late Wednesday or early Thursday, still packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center.

JTWC forecasts Maysak to pass 19 miles west-northwest of Daegu-Area IV and 25 miles west-northwest of Naval Base Chinhae between 5 and 6 a.m. Thursday. Those bases remain in seasonal TCCOR 4 for now.

Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan also might face some effects from Maysak. It's forecast to pass 114 miles west-northwest of Sasebo at midnight Wednesday. Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.


1:40 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 29, Japan/Korea time: Tropical Storm Maysak keeps strengthening while remaining somewhat stationary, well south of Okinawa. It could become a typhoon late Satuirday and pass Okinawa early Tuesday as a powerful Category 3-equivalent storm, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Once past Okinawa, Korea remains on the itinerary for possible passage near U.S. bases in the southeast part of peninsula late Wednesday into Thursday morning. It would be the fourth tropical cyclone to affect Korea this summer, if the current forecast track holds.

At 9 a.m., Maysak had drifted back south and was 602 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving south at 3 mph and had strengthened to 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

If Maysak remains on its present path, JTWC forecasts it to turn north Saturday afternoon, intensifying into a typhoon by mid-evening Saturday, and peaking at Category 3-equivalent 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at mid-morning Tuesday.

Maysak is forecast to pass 67 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 6 a.m. Tuesday. Here is the updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa provided by Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 4 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 8 p.m. Monday.
-- Peak 86-mph sustained winds and 110-mph gusts for Okinawa, 75-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts for Kadena: 7 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 5 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: Noon Wednesday.

A reminder that 40-mph (35-knot) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph (50-knot) to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 7 to 9 inches of rain associated with Maysak.

It's those pesky back side wind and rain bands that would linger once Maysak passes Okinawa, should it pass west of the island.

And that is still a question mark. Which way would Maysak pass Okinawa, to the west or the east?

JWTC continues reporting a spread of 196 miles among solutions, with the ECMWF and UKMET forecast ensembles depicting a track west of Okinawa and the GFS ensembles to the east, with many outliers among solutions. More would be known as Maysak develops and approaches.

As for Korea, Maysak is forecast to continue generally north, then turn northeast as it approaches Korea's south coast, making landfall sometime early Thursday morning.

JTWC projects Maysak to pass 30 miles west-northwest of Naval Base Chinhae and 17 miles west-northwest of Daegu-Area IV between 3 and 5 a.m. Thursday, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center. For now, those areas remain in seasonal TCCOR 4.

Maysak would also pass uncomfortably close to Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan, 120 miles west-northwest at 10 p.m. Wednesday, if the current forecast track holds. Sasebo is in TCCOR Storm Watch.

Still a relatively young storm with plenty of questions remaining. Stay tuned. Next update about 7:30 p.m. Saturday.


7:30 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 29, Japan/Korea time: Tropical Storm Maysak continues to gather strength and remains forecast to pass just southwest of Okinawa early Tuesday as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Korea appears to be next on Maysak's itinerary, which would make it the fourth tropical cyclone to affect peninsula this month, joining Hagupit, Jangmi and Bavi and matching the four that impacted Korea last summer.

At 3 a.m., Maysak was 676 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving west-northwest at 6 mph and had strengthened to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

If Maysak continues on its present course, JTWC forecasts it to pass 74 miles southwest of Kadena at 2 a.m. Tuesday, packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa, provided by Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph destructive sustained winds: 6 p.m. Monday.
-- Peak 86-mph sustained winds and 110-mph gusts for Okinawa, 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts for Kadena: 2 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 6 p.m. Tuesday.

Reminder that 40-mph sustained winds (35 knots) meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph sustained winds (50 knots) for upgrade to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 6 to 8 inches of rain for Okinawa associated with Maysak.

Maysak remains forecast to continue generally north after it passes Okinawa, curving northeast and making landfall over Korea's south coast early Thursday morning, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it roars ashore.

JTWC continues to report a spread among solutions, of 196 mph three days out. Model track guidance shows similar, with the ECMWF and UKMET forecast ensembles depicting a track west of Okinawa and the GFS ensembles east of the island, with many outliers among solutions.

Next update just after 1 p.m. Saturday. Stay tuned.


12:15 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 29, Japan time: Maysak has been upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which reported in its latest update that the forecast track has pushed much closer than previously reported to Okinawa early Tuesday morning.

At 9 p.m., Maysak was 712 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving west-southwest at 7 mph and had strengthened to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. An updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa will be posted by Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight about 7 a.m. Saturday and published here soon after.

If Maysak stays on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to turn north Saturday morning and intensify rapidly, peaking at Category 3-equivalent intensity, 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts late Monday evening, just before passing 64 miles southwest of Kadena at 3 a.m. Tuesday.

Model track guidance and forecast ensembles remain split over which way Maysak might pass, west or east of Okinawa.

The ECMWF ensembles indicate passage west of the island, while the GFS ensembles favor east passage. JTWC reports an across track spread of 260 miles three days out.

It's early yet in the life of a young storm. Much can yet change. Stay tuned.



6:30 p.m. Friday, Aug. 28, Japan time: Tropical Depression 10W has been named Maysak by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Its latest forecast track edges it slightly further away from Okinawa than previously reported.

Still, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to be a vicious Category 3-equivalent beast as it makes forecast pass southwest of island early Tuesday morning.

At 3 p.m., Maysak had actually nudged slightly further away from Okinawa, 702 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, was moving west-southwest at 9 mph and had strengthened slightly, to 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Wind-forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight remains the same as reported at 1 p.m.:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 3 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 50-knot (58-mph) destructive sustained winds: 9 a.m. Monday.
-- Peak 80-knot (92-mph) sustained winds, 110-mph gusts for Okinawa, 60-knot (69-mph) sustained winds, 75-knot (86-mph) gusts for Kadena: 3 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 50-knot (58-mph) destructive sustained: 3 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 35-knot (40-mph) sustained: 6 a.m. Wednesday.

Reminder that 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution), and 50-knot (58-mph) destructive winds for TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with Maysak.

If Maysak continues moving as forecast, JTWC projects it to turn north Saturday and intensify, possibly becoming a tropical storm late Friday or early Saturday and a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by mid-afternoon Sunday.

Maysak is forecast by JTWC to pass 116 miles southwest of Kadena at 3 a.m. Tuesday, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts.

That's at storm's center. But southwest passage means that Maysak's forecast east quadrants, typically the stronger of the four, would be facing Okinawa as it roars past.

Following closest point of approach, Maysak is forecast to peak at 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center at mid-afternoon Tuesday, still plenty close to Okinawa.

JTWC reports a spread of 294 miles among solutions three days out, so there's every chance those numbers and the forecast track could change.

Model track guidance, the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS forecast models indicate a long-term northeast track toward Korea once out of the Okinawa area. Plenty of outliers among those solutions.

Okinawa folks: the time to prepare is now. Get the commissary and Exchange shopping as soon as you can.

Water, non-perishable food, batteries for the flashlight and the portable radio, food for your furry friends and diapers and wipes for the young'uns.

Gas up and get enough cash and currency to last three days in case the power goes out. Make sure you're listening and watching official information, and dismiss at every turn the rumor mill.

Next update around midnight Friday. Get your safe on, Okinawa!


1 p.m. Friday, Aug. 28, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

Here is the initial Tropical Depression 10W wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 3 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 50-knot (58-mph) destructive sustained winds: 9 a.m. Monday.
-- Peak 80-knot (92-mph) sustained winds, 110-mph gusts for Okinawa, 60-knot (69-mph) sustained winds, 75-knot (86-mph) gusts for Kadena: 3 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 50-knot (58-mph) destructive sustained: 3 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 35-knot (40-mph) sustained: 6 a.m. Wednesday.

Reminder that 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution), and 50-knot (58-mph) destructive winds for TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with 10W.


12:15 p.m. Friday, Aug. 28, Japan/Korea time: Say hello to the 10th numbered cyclone of the northwest Pacific's season.

Initial Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes Tropical Depression 10W just over 100 miles southwest of Okinawa early Tuesday as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon.

At 9 a.m., 10W was 693 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving west-northwest at 9 mph with 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.

JTWC projects 10W to turn northwest and intensify rapidly. If it remains on its current heading, 10W is forecast to pass 108 miles southwest of Kadena at 2 a.m. Tuesday, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts.

That's at storm's center. But westward passage would again mean the storm's east quadrants, the strongest of the four, would be facing the island, as was the case earlier this week with Bavi and its heavy gusts and rainfall.

For now, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. A wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa will be posted when it becomes available.

Kadena's extended weather forecast calls for up to 90-percent chance of rain and thunderstorms with gusts peaking as high as 114 mph Monday evening.

Once past closest point of approach to Okinawa, 10W is forecast to peak at 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at mid-morning Tuesday.

Model-track guidance and the GFS forecast ensembles depict 10W passing close to Okinawa, then moving toward the southern coast of Korea and curving northeast, bisecting peninsula or tracking over the southeastern coast six days from now.

JTWC reports a spread of about 160 miles among solutions. It's early yet. Though solutions are in fairly good agreement, much can change in the life of a young storm. Stay tuned.


11:30 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 27, Japan time: It's not become a tropical cyclone yet, but  94W Invest is starting to come together, and we could see first warning on a tropical depression sometime Friday morning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 11 p.m., 94W was 765 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, 95 miles closer than previously reported almost six hours ago. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Model track guidance and the GFS forecast ensembles paint a grim picture for the island, with 94W either moving right at Okinawa or just to its east Monday into Tuesday.

Should 94W become a tropical cyclone, at which point JTWC would issue its first warning on it, we'd get a glance at the initial forecast track and much more would be known regarding closest point of approach and forecast wind values. More to follow at mid-day Friday.


6 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 27, Japan time: A tropical cyclone formation alert was issued at 6 p.m. on disturbance 94W Invest by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Chances of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

At 6 p.m., 94W was 860 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Models continue to depict 94W becoming a tropical cyclone and venturing north-northwest into Okinawa's neighborhood next Monday and Tuesday. How close it comes and how strong it might become is still open to question.

Model track guidance shows a track just southwest of Okinawa. The ECMWF and GFS forecast ensembles show similar, either just southwest of or toward the island, followed by a dogleg northeast curve toward Korea, which just endured Typhoon Bavi's outer east edges.

Should 94W become a tropical cyclone and an initial forecast track  published by JTWC, more would be known. That could occur at any point overnight or Friday morning. Stay tuned.


12:15 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 27, Japan/Korea time: U.S. bases on the Korean peninsula's west coast have reverted to seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 5 and road conditions have reverted to Green.

Closest points of approach by Typhoon Bavi have come and gone, though showery, gusty conditions should prevail through the rest of Thursday on Korea's west coast, at Osan Air Base, Camp Humphreys and to a lesser extent Kunsan Air Base.

Meanwhile, with Bavi moving north, eyes are turning to disturbance 94W Invest, south of Okinawa. Forecast models continue to point to close passage to island early next week, a week after Bavi. How close and how strong, still not known for the moment.

94W Invest: U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal TCCOR 4. At noon, 94W was 850 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Kadena's long-range forecast calls for winds picking up late Sunday into Monday, easterly at 39-mph sustained with gusts between 82 and 100 mph. This could change; we're talking four to five days out here.

JTWC forecasts 94W to remain quasi-stationary for the next 2 to 2 1/2 days, consolidating and intensifying before turning north and continuing to develop as the new week unfolds.

Model track guidance continues to depict a track close to Okinawa four to five days out, then moving north-northeast toward Korea, which just experienced Bavi's outer effects. The ECMWF, UKMET and GFS forecast ensembles show similar.

Again, much can change. 94W remains in the early formative stage. It has yet to even develop into a tropical cyclone, though that could change as early as Friday. Time to prepare, not panic.

Typhoon Bavi: It has moved north through the Yellow Sea (West Sea), weakened to 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts. Bavi grazed North Korea just west of Changyon and is due to make landfall shortly over the country's northwest reaches.

This is the second time in a year that a typhoon has hit North Korea, following Lingling last Sept. 7. Only the second time since records began being kept in 1958 that destructive winds of 58 mph or greater have ever hit the country.

Unless things change drastically, this is Storm Tracker's final update on Bavi.


Midnight Wednesday, Aug. 26, Japan/Korea time: Typhoon Bavi remains a strong Category 2-equivalent storm as it makes its way up the Yellow Sea (West Sea), passing more than 100 miles west of U.S. bases on Korea's west coast, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Meanwhile, the latest forecast models regarding 94W Invest still indicate close passage to Okinawa early next week. How close, and how strong, is still open to question.

Typhoon Bavi: Bavi has made closest point of approach to Kunsan Air Base, 123 miles west at midnight. JTWC forecasts Bavi to pass 139 miles west of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys between 4 and 5 a.m. Thursday.

Osan remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, according to the base's official Facebook page, and is still calling for 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts with between 2 to 3 inches of rain through Thursday afternoon.

Camp Humphreys' official Facebook page says to expect gusts up to 50 mph and between 2 to 4 inches of rain through Thursday. Start of the duty day is delayed and some services will be interrupted, the Facebook page reports.

Just because closest points of approach will have come and gone, Bavi will be far from finished with those bases.

It's the back-side windbands, and the east quadrants, typically the stronger of the four, would be facing those bases along the west coast.

Two words: Be careful! Good, sound judgment comes into play regarding tropical cyclones, especially for those not used to them. Low-lying areas are subject to flooding, and these sorts of winds can down a power line or two, break tree branches and damage buildings.

Destructive, sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are not forecast, but if it doesn't look good, don't go out. If you see objects blowing in the air, don't go out. If you are out and the rain is seriously affecting visibility, slow down. If you come upon a massive puddle, don't drive through it.

If Bavi stays on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to remain off South Korea's west coast, start weakening as it reaches cooler water, pick up forward speed and make landfall in northwestern North Korea Thursday evening as a Category 1-equivalent storm.

94W Invest: Still no definitive conclusions regarding anything other than forecast models show 94W headed toward Okinawa next Monday or Tuesday. How close it may come and how strong is still up in the air. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal TCCOR 4.

Model track guidance shows 94W tracking just west of island, as do the GFS forecast ensembles, while ECMWF and UKMET favor a track either directly at or just east of Okinawa. Many outliers among the solutions. Still a headscratcher. And it's not a tropical cyclone yet.

This report will be updated at mid-day Thursday.


6:15 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 26, Japan/Korea time: Already, Typhoon Bavi has begun to affect U.S. bases on Korea's west coast as it approaches the Yellow Sea, making for a showery, gusty Wednesday evening into Thursday.

Meanwhile, updated forecast models indicate that 94W Invest could become a powerful storm and pass fairly close to Okinawa early next week. But it's early yet, and much can change as 94W develops.

Typhoon Bavi: Kunsan Air Base has changed its road condition to Red in advance of Bavi, which at 3 p.m. was 202 miles southwest of Kunsan, traveling north at 14 mph and had weakened slightly, to 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center, Category 2-equivalent intensity.

Osan Air Base remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Its official Facebook page said to expect sustained 40-mph winds and 52-mph gusts with between 2 to 4 inches of rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Camp Humphreys' official Facebook page said to expect 50-mph gusts with 2 to 4 inches of rain overnight Wednesday lasting throughout the day Thursday. The base's Facebook page also details changes to scheduled operations and a delayed start to Thursday's duty day.

If Bavi continues on its present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts it to pass 125 miles west of Kunsan and 144 miles west of Humphreys and Osan between 11 p.m. Wednesday and 4 a.m. Thursday.

Bavi's east quadrants, typically the strongest of the four, would be facing Korea's west coast, thus rainy, windy weather could hang around for most of the day at Bavi moves north and weakens gradually.

94W Invest: At 6 p.m., it was 953 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base. JTWC projects it to move slowly west, strengthening gradually, then turning north and continuing to develop. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal TCCOR 4.

Model track guidance has shifted slightly west in the last few hours, but both it and the ECMWF and GFS forecast ensembles call for 94W to become pretty strong and pass fairly close to island next Monday or Tuesday, with some outliers among solutions.

Again, how close it might come, and how strong it might become, it's way too early to draw solid conclusions. Much can change in a six-day span. Stay tuned.


Noon Wednesday, Aug. 26, Japan/Korea time: Good news for Korea: Typhoon Bavi's forecast track has edged further west of peninsula, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest.

Possible bad news for Okinawa: A new disturbance, 94W Invest, has spawned well to the island's southeast, and could give Okinawa some problems early next week, JTWC reported and forecast models are suggesting.

First, Bavi. At 9 a.m., it was 274 miles south-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, South Korea, moving north-northwest at 13 mph and had reached JTWC-forecast peak intensity, 115-mph sustained winds and 140-mph gusts at center, Category 3-equivalent strength.

Osan Air Base remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan has reverted to TCCOR All Clear, with Bavi having passed 300 miles west at mid-day Wednesday.

If Bavi stays on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to pass 129 miles west of Kunsan and 147 miles west of Osan and Camp Humphreys between 11 p.m. Wednesday and 3 a.m. Thursday.

Osan can expect 29-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts and 2 inches of rain associated with Bavi, according to the base's official Facebook page. Camp Humphreys can expect gusts up to 55 mph and 3 to 5 inches of rain, its official Facebook page reports.

Now, as for 94W Invest: At 11 a.m., it was nearly 900 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, and could threaten Okinawa next Monday and Tuesday. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal TCCOR 4.

JTWC reports that models are in strong agreement on a track northwest, strengthening over the next 2 to 3 days. Model-track guidance and the GFS forecast ensembles are showing similar.

It is way too early to draw conclusions on 94W. It's just starting to develop and Monday-Tuesday is still five to six days away. But stay tuned. Especially after what happened this Monday. That was just an offering of what could be to come. Or not. We'll see.


12:20 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 26, Korea time: All wind values and closest points of approach remain the same distance-wise and time-wise for U.S. bases on Korea's west coast courtesy of Typhoon Bavi, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 9 p.m., Bavi was 315 miles southwest of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan and 374 miles south-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, South Korea, moving north-northwest at 8 mph and holding steady at 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

Osan Air Base remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 and Sasebo in TCCOR Storm Watch, according to their official Facebook pages.

Camp Humphreys can expect gusts up to 55 mph and 3 to 5 inches of rain, according to its Facebook page. Osan is looking at 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts and 2 to 3 inches of rain from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon.

As always with such storms, no matter the TCCOR, best to be prepared.

Stock up on emergency supplies, bring loose objects inside, take down the trampolines, gas up, get enough cash and local currency to last three days in case the power goes off, make sure you have things for the young'uns and the furry friends, etc.

If Bavi continues on its present course, JTWC projects it to pass 106 miles west of Kunsan and 124 miles west of Osan and Humphreys between 11 p.m. Wednesday and 3 a.m. Thursday.

As for Sasebo, Bavi is due to pass 291 miles west at noon Wednesday. Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for high winds peaking at 23- to 29-mph sustained and 46-mph gusts at 11 a.m. Wednesday, subsiding gradually from there, with showers and thunderstorms.

All this could change if Bavi tracks further east than currently forecast. Model solutions are in tight agreement through Bavi's forecast passage west of Korea, JTWC reports.

This will be updated at mid-day Wednesday.


6:45 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 25, Korea time: U.S. bases on South Korea's west coast could be just out of reach of Typhoon Bavi's forecast destructive wind bands.

Still, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Bavi to pass close enough that Wednesday evening and Thursday morning portend to be plenty gusty and showery, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest update.

At 3 p.m., Bavi was 331 miles southwest of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan and 475 miles south-southwest of Osan Air Base in South Korea and had strengthened slightly, to 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

Osan remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, while Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch, according to their official Facebook pages.

Bavi is forecast to peak as a Category 3-equivalent storm, 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts, early Wednesday morning and pass 290 miles west of Sasebo at 1 p.m. Wednesday.

Sasebo's weather forecast continues to call for winds to pick up late Tuesday, peaking at 23- to 29-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at 11 a.m. Wednesday, with showers and thunderstorms, into Thursday.

If Bavi remains on its present heading, JTWC projects it to pass far enough away that U.S. bases on the west coast could avoid the 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands, which are forecast by JTWC to extend up to 80 miles east from center. It's those pesky east quadrants, the worst of the four, that would still be facing the coast.

JTWC forecasts Bavi to pass 106 miles west of Kunsan Air Base and 123 miles west of Osan and Camp Humphreys between 11 p.m. Wednesday and 3 a.m. Thursday. It's still forecast to be packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center. Still powerful.

For the moment, Osan is forecasting 29-mph sustained winds and gusts up to 52-mph, while Humphreys continues to call for 55-mph gusts, according to their official Facebook pages, with 3 to 5 inches of rain in each area. If Bavi passes closer, those values could increase.

Models continue to come into better agreement, with JTWC reporting a 110-mile spread among solutions. Model-track guidance and the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS forecast ensembles show similar.

Next update about midnight Tuesday. Stay tuned.


12:30 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 25, Korea time: Osan Air Base, South Korea, has been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 in advance of Typhoon Bavi. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

That said, Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest update places Bavi's forecast track a tad further west of Korea's west coast than previously reported. A bit better news for peninsula, but still a rough early Thursday in store.

At 9 a.m., Bavi was 467 miles almost due south of Kunsan Air Base and 227 miles northwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. It had picked up forward speed, moving north-northwest at 8 mph and had weakened slightly to 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa reverted to seasonal TCCOR 4 at 6 a.m. Tuesday. Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

If Bavi stays on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to peak as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon, 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at mid-morning Wednesday, well southwest of Korea and moving toward the Yellow Sea (West Sea).

JTWC projects Bavi to pass nearly 300 miles west of Sasebo at noon Wednesday. Sasebo's weather forecast calls for winds picking up early Wedkesday, peaking at 23- to 29-mph sustained with 45-mph gusts at 11 a.m., starting to diminish by nightfall.

Bavi is forecast to pass 116 miles west of Kunsan and 131 miles west of Osan, Camp Humphreys and Yongsan Garrison between 11 p.m. Wednesday and 4 a.m. Thursday. A bit further off shore than earlier forecast, but those pesky east quadrants still facing the coast.

Camp Humphreys can expect winds up to 55 mph and between 3 to 5 inches of rain, the base's official Facebook page reported at mid-morning Tuesday.

Model solutions have come into better agreement, with just an 83-mile spread two days out, according to JTWC. Model track guidance and the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS forecast ensembles reflect the same.

Regarding Okinawa, the rains have ceased and the gusts have given way to breezes and clouds, with the occasional stray shower here and there. But there are some spots where flooding is still a problem. What a wild night Monday was!

Kadena recorded maximum winds of 43-mph sustained and 57-mph gusts, with 46-mph sustained winds and 61-mph gusts recorded at Naha Airport. Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight recorded 8.88 inches of rain associated with Bavi; Japanese outlets recorded more than 13 inches in southwestern locales.

Next update about 6 p.m. Tuesday. Stay tuned.


12:30 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 25, Japan/Korea time: Wow! Talk about a ton of rainfall on Okinawa in the last day.

According to Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight, 8.88 inches of rain fell on Monday, 3.33 inches in just the last six hours of the day. One of the reasons why we saw such heavy downpours and so much flooding around the island on Monday.

And Typhoon Bavi is not finished yet; in fact, it might be just getting started, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest update,

Bavi is forecast to rapidly intensify and peak as a Category 4-equivalent storm by mid-evening Tuesday, well away from any land masses, and move north just off Korea's west coast, remaining a powerful Category 3-equivalent typhoon as it moves toward North Korea and China.

At 9 p.m., Bavi was 171 miles north-northwest of Kadena and 512 miles south of Kunsan Air Base and had intensified into a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at storm's center, and moving north-northwest at 8 mph.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, as does Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan. Osan Air Base is in TCCOR 4. Expect all west-coast bases in Korea to upgrade TCCOR by morning.

If Bavi continues on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to keep moving north-northwest briefly, peaking at 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts, still well offshore, then turn north and head toward the Yellow Sea (West Sea).

JTWC projects Bavi to pass 273 miles west of Sasebo at noon Wednesday. Sasebo's extended weather forecast continues to call for winds picking up at 8 a.m. Wednesday, 21- to 26-mph sustained and 40-mph gusts lasting into Thursday, southeasterly shifting southerly.

Then comes the journey into the Yellow Sea later Wednesday, with Bavi's east quadrants, the worst of the lot, facing Korea's west coast. U.S. bases look to be just outside JTWC's forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands, but close enough for Bavi to make for a miserable night.

JTWC forecasts Bavi to pass 90 miles west of Kunsan and 108 miles west of Osan, Camp Humphreys and Yongsan Garrison between 10 p.m. Wednesday and 3 a.m. Thursday, still packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at storm's center.

JTWC reports a spread among solutions, 76 miles two days out and 240 miles three days out. Model track guidance and the ECMWF and GFS forecast ensembles show similar spreads.

This report will be updated at mid-day Tuesday. Again, be ready for TCCOR upgrades at U.S. bases along Korea's west coast.


UPDATED at 7 p.m. Monday, Aug. 24, Japan/Korea time: Many folks are reporting flooding in low-lying areas, both on and off base. Take special care. Don't try to drive through flooded areas. Lots of lighting and loud thunder. Keep your safe on, Okinawa!


6:10 p.m. Monday, Aug. 24, Japan/Korea time: Though Typhoon Bavi's closest point of approach to Okinawa has come and gone, it is clearly not through with the island yet, from a heavy-rain standpoint, thanks to Bavi's more intense east quadrants facing the island.

And the news for Korea worsens slightly, as Bavi's latest forecast track edges it closer to peninsula, with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands a bit  closer to U.S. bases on the west coast than previously reported.

Darkness seemed to fall over Okinawa a couple of hours early as a heavy rainband settled over the island, making driving and visibility hazardous, especially on the Okinawa Expressway long about 5 p.m. Lightning and localized heavy flooding, too. Stay safe out there!

At 3 p.m., Bavi was 121 miles northwest of Kadena Air Base and 564 miles south of Kunsan Air Base, moving northeast at 8 mph and had strengthened to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at storm's center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Osan Air Base in South Korea is in TCCOR 4. Expect other bases in Korea to upgrade at any point.

Sustained 40-mph winds are forecast to subside by 9 p.m. Monday, according to Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight, which has increased its rain projection to between 5 and 7 inches associated with Bavi.

If Bavi continues on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to turn north-northwest, away from Okinawa, and intensify rapidly, peaking at Category 3-equivalent strength, 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center early Wednesday morning.

Bavi is forecast to pass 252 miles west of Sasebo at noon Wednesday. Sasebo's extended forecast continues to call for 21- to 26-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts, southeasterly shifting to southerly, starting Wednesday morning and continuing into Thursday.

JTWC forecasts Bavi to still be packing Category 3-equivalent winds, 121-mph sustained and 150-mph gusts as it approaches the southwestern tip of the Korean peninsula, then weaken as it moves north.

Bavi is projected to pass 77 miles west of Kunsan and 100 miles west of Osan, Camp Humphreys and Yongsan Garrison between 9 p.m. Wednesday and 4 a.m. Thursday. Bavi's east quadrants, typically the stronger of the four, would be facing those bases.

Humphreys' official Facebook page stated that the 607th Weather Squadron forecast calls for winds up to 50 mph and 2 to 4 inches of rain associated with Bavi.

Model track guidance continues to depict Bavi moving offshore in the Yellow Sea (West Sea), with some continues solution differences between the ECMWF and GFS ensembles. Keep it here. Next update about midnight Monday.


1 p.m. Monday, Aug. 24, Japan/Korea time: Closest point of approach by Typhoon Bavi to Okinawa has come and gone. But bad weather is forecast to linger for a few days in Bavi's wake, according to military and Japanese extended forecasts.

At 9 a.m., Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported Bavi was 124 miles west-northwest of Kadena Air Base, crawling slowly northeast at 5 mph and had restrengthened to 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight reports Okinawa should continue to see 40-mph sustained winds until evening, with gusts up to 40 mph keeping up into Tuesday morning.

Okinawa experienced 46-mph sustained winds and 61-mph gusts at 8:20 a.m., Weather Flight reports. Up to 4 inches of rain remain forecast. There is flooding in some low-lying areas. Be careful out there!

Weather Flight's extended weather forecast calls for between a 50- and 80-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds  through the rest of the week.

JTWC projects Bavi to turn north-northwest Monday evening and pick up forward speed, peaking at 115-mph sustained winds and 140-mph gusts at mid-evening Tuesday, still well south of any land masses.

Bavi is then due to move due north, passing 280 miles west of Sasebo at 1 p.m. Wednesday. Sasebo's extended weather forecast calls for winds picking up Wednesday morning, 21- to 26-mph sustained with 35-mph gusts lasting through early Thursday.

From there, JTWC forecasts Bavi to move into the Yellow Sea (West Sea), with U.S. bases on Korea's west coast just outside Bavi's forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands.

But the east quadrants, typically the stronger of the four, would be facing the peninsula. So while escaping Bavi's full fury, those bases would still experience some effects. That on top of a record-breaking monsoon season for peninsula.

Bavi is forecast to pass 104 miles west of Kunsan Air Base and 126 miles west of Osan Air Base, Camp Humphreys and Yongsan Garrison between 10 p.m. Wednesday and 3 a.m. Thursday. Be prepared for upgraded TCCORs at any point.

JTWC continues reporting a spread among model solutions. The primary difference is between the ECMWF and UKMET ensembles, which point to a track over the Yellow Sea, and the GFS ensembles, which favor a track closer to land. Stay tuned.


7:30 a.m. Monday, Aug. 24, Japan/Korea time: Typhoon Bavi's forward motion has slowed and it has weakened slightly. But it's let loose with plenty of gusts and showers, and is now forecast to make closest point of approach to Okinawa at mid-day Monday.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest warning continues to depict Bavi passing west of the Korean peninsula early Thursday,  close enough that U.S. bases on the west coast should feel some of Bavi's effects.

At 3 a.m., Bavi was 146 miles west-northwest of Kadena Air Base, crawling east-northeast at 4 mph, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center, slightly less than six hours earlier.

U.S. bases on Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. No accelerated TCCORs for U.S. bases on Korea's west coast yet; that should change later Monday or early Tuesday.

If Bavi remains on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to pass 144 miles west-northwest of Kadena at 11 a.m. Monday, with a slight increase in forward motion and sustained winds and gusts at center.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: Occurring now.
-- Peak 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds, 45-knot (52-mph) gusts for Okinawa, 30-knot (35-mph) sustained and 40-knot (46-mph) gusts for Kadena: 11 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds subsiding below 35-knot (40-mph) sustained: 9 p.m. Monday.

Weather Flight continues to forecast 2 to 4 inches of rain associated with Bavi.

Once past Okinawa, JTWC projects Bavi to push north-northwest, peaking at 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Tuesday, passing 286 miles west of Sasebo at 11 a.m. Wednesday.

Sasebo's extended weather forecast has dialed down the wind quite a bit from earlier reports. Winds there are forecast to peak at 8 a.m. Wednesday, 21- to 26-mph sustained and 40-mph gusts, continuing through early Thursday.

Bavi remains forecast to track north through the Yellow Sea (West Sea) off the west coast of the Korean peninsula, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it goes, with the east quadrants, the stronger of the four, facing peninsula.

JTWC projects Bavi to pass 112 miles west of Kunsan Air Base and 132 miles west of Osan Air Base, Camp Humphreys and Yongsan Garrison between 10 p.m. Wednesday and 3 a.m. Thursday.

There remains a spread among model solutions, JTWC reports. Model track guidance and the ECMWF and GFS forecast ensembles also continue to show a similar split among solutions. Stay tuned.


12:15 a.m. Monday, Aug. 24, Japan/Korea time: Typhoon Bavi has continued intensifying in the last six hours, but its latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track still keeps it away from land masses in both Japan and South Korea.

At 9 p.m., Bavi was 593 miles south-southwest of Naval Base Chinhae and 164 miles west-northwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving east-northeast at 9 mph and had strengthened to 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at storm's center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Bases in Korea are either in TCCOR All Clear or seasonal TCCOR 4, but expect those to be upgraded at any time.

Here is the updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 3 a.m. Monday.
-- Peak 30-knot (35-mph) sustained winds and 40-knot (46-mph) gusts for Kadena, 35-knot (40-mph) sustained and 45-knot (52-mph) gusts elsewhere: 5 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds subsiding below 35-knot (40-mph) sustained: 9 p.m. Monday.

Weather Flight also forecasts between 2 to 4 inches of rain associated with Bavi.

If Bavi stays on its current course, JTWC forecasts it to pass 154 miles northwest of Kadena at 4 a.m. Monday, then curve north-northwest, gradually intensifying until it peaks at 115-mph sustained winds and 140-mph gusts at mid-evening Tuesday, still well away from land.

JTWC forecasts Bavi to pass 277 miles west of Sasebo at 5 a.m. Wednesday. Sasebo's extended weather forecast continues to call for winds picking up Wednesday, peaking at 46- to 52-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts at 1 a.m. Thursday, then subsiding.

Bavi remains forecast to stay just offshore of the Korean peninsula. Already, base official Facebook pages are asking personnel to be "typhoon ready" this week.

JTWC projects Bavi to pass 106 miles west of Kunsan Air Base and 127 miles west of Osan Air Base, Camp Humphreys and Yongsan Garrison between 6 p.m. and midnight Thursday, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it moves north.

Bases along Korea's west coast should be just out of Bavi's JTWC forecast 50-knot (58-mph) sustained wind band. But the east quadrants, the stronger of the four, would be facing peninsula if the forecast track holds.

JTWC still reports a goodly spread among model solutions, of 300 miles four days out and nearly 800 miles five days out. Model track guidance and the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS forecast ensembles continue to show similar.

Things could still change this early in the game. Stay tuned.


7 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 23, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, according to Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Winds are not forecast to reach the destructive 58-mph threshold, but high winds are still possible due to Typhoon Bavi's proximity to Okinawa.


6 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 23, Japan/Korea time: Bavi has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the third typhoon of the northwest Pacific's 2020 season.

Its forecast track still keeps Bavi well away from land masses, and even further west of the Korean peninsula than reported earlier, but with its stronger quadrants still facing those locales.

At 3 p.m., Bavi was 630 miles south-southwest of Naval Base Chinhae, South Korea, and 213 miles west of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. Its track has lurched northeast, at 7 mph, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at storm's center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, while Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

If Bavi remains on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to keep heading northeast, passing 164 miles northwest of Kadena at 6 a.m. Monday as it intensifies to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts.

That's at storm's center; that's the good news. The bad news is that Bavi's east quadrants, the worst of the four, would still be facing Okinawa. Hence, why the gusts have begun and rain, heavy at times, has begun falling. Lightning, too; please be safe out there!

Here is the updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 3 a.m. Monday.
-- Peak 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds, 45-knot (52-mph) gusts for Okinawa: 8 a.m. Monday. Kadena can expect peak 30-knot (35-mph) sustained winds and 40-knot (46-mph) gusts.
-- Winds subsiding below 35-knot (40-mph) sustained: 9 p.m. Monday.

Weather flight also forecasts 2 to 4 inches of rain associated with Bavi.

Once past Okinawa, Bavi remains forecast to linger for another day or so, then begin tracking north-northwest, peaking at 115-mph sustained winds and 140-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Tuesday, still well away from any land masses.

JTWC projects Bavi to pass 282 miles west of Sasebo at mid-morning Wednesday. Sasebo's extended weather forecast calls for winds to pick up starting Wednesday, peaking southerly at 46- to 52-mph sustained with 69-mph gusts at 1 a.m. Thursday, then subsiding.

Bavi is then forecast to move straight north, skirting Korea's west coast, with the bases along the peninsula's west coast just outside JTWC's forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands.

Keep in mind, though, those east quadrants. They would be facing Korea, as Lingling did last September when it created such havoc on peninsula. And Korea certainly has had enough rain during a record-breaking monsoon season.

JTWC forecasts Bavi to pass 101 miles west of Kunsan Air Base and 121 miles west of Osan Air Base, Camp Humphreys and Yongsan Garrison between 7 p.m. Wednesday and 1 a.m. Thursday, still packing 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

JTWC still reports a spread among model solutions, 164 miles three days out, increasing to 405 miles four days out. Model track guidance and ECMWF and GFS forecast ensembles show a similar split.

Despite Bavi starting to form into a fairly powerful beast, it's still a young storm. Much can still change. Stay tuned.


1:30 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 23, Japan/Korea time: The news continues to improve for Okinawa and South Korea, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's updated forecast track for Tropical Storm Bavi.

At 9 a.m., Bavi was 247 miles west of Kadena Air Base, crawling north at 6 mph and had strengthened slightly, to 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, while Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

If Bavi continues on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to pass even further west of all locales than previously reported.

That's the good news. The bad news is that Bavi's east quadrants, typically the stronger of the four, would be facing all locales. Thus, each should still get a fair measure of Bavi's effects, though not its full fury.

Closest point of approach to Kadena is now 166 miles northwest at 8 a.m. Monday. It's at that point that JTWC forecasts Bavi to reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength, though Okinawa is forecast to be just outside the 34-knot (39-mph) wind band.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 8 a.m. Monday.
-- Peak 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds and 40-knot (46-mph) gusts for Kadena, 45-knot (52-mph) gusts elsewhere: 8 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40-mph) sustained: 9 p.m. Monday.

Weather Flight also forecasts between 2 to 4 inches of rain associated with Bavi.

Bavi is then forecast to curve due north, passing 278 miles west of Sasebo at 1 p.m. Wednesday, then peaking at 115-mph sustained winds and 140-mph gusts while still well offshore south of the Korean peninsula.

As it moves over the cooler waters of the Yellow Sea (West Sea), Bavi is forecast to gradually weaken, passing 97 miles west of Kunsan Air Base and 110 miles west of Osan Air Base, Camp Humphreys and Yongsan Garrison between midnight Wednesday and 5 a.m. Thursday.

It might yet be packing typhoon-force winds, but at storm's center. Again, the stronger east quadrants would be facing peninsula, so it might get a good measure of effects, perhaps more rain for a Korea that's already seen a record monsoon season, but not Bavi's full fury.

Model track guidance and the ECMWF, GFS and CMC forecast ensembles continue to show a split among solutions, with JTWC reporting a 253-mile spread among solutions four days out.

Still much room and time for things to change. Stay tuned.


7:15 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 23, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Storm Bavi for Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Bavi is forecast to pass 146 miles northwest of Kadena at 10 a.m. Monday:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 9 p.m. Sunday.
-- Onset of 50-knot (58-mph) destructive winds: Not forecast to occur.
-- Peak 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds, 40-knot (46-mph) gusts for Kadena, 45-knot (52-mph) gusts elsewhere: 10 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds dimnishing below 35 knots (40 mph) sustained: 9 p.m. Monday.

Weather Flight also forecasts between 2 to 4 inches of rain associated with Bavi.


6:40 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 23, Japan/Korea time: Tropical Storm Bavi's forecast track has shifted west, further away from Okinawa. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest update indicates that Bavi could skim Korea's west coast, instead of making landfall over the peninsula.

At 3 a.m., Bavi was 259 miles west of Kadena Air Base, moving north at 6 mph and holding steady at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts.

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 and Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan in TCCOR Storm Watch.

JTWC projects Bavi to pass 146 miles northwest of Kadena at 10 a.m. Monday, packing Category 1-equivalent 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

But that's at storm's center. Okinawa appears to be at the edge of JTWC's forecast 34-knot (39-mph) wind band. Thus, the island could be spared the bulk of Bavi's main fury.

Kadena's extended forecast calls for light to moderate showers through Monday morning, increasing to 80- to 90-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Thursday, with winds peaking southerly at 33-mph sustained and gusts up to 52 mph Monday afternoon.

Updated wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa to be posted when it becomes available.

Long term, Bavi is forecast to move northeast past Okinawa, then turn north, heading early Thursday morning into the Yellow Sea (West Sea) near Korea's west coast as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon.

That's a change from previous forecasts that had Bavi ramming ashore along Korea's southwest coast. Still, Bavi's east quadrants, typically the worst of the four, would be facing Korea's west coast in that scenario.

JTWC now projects Bavi to pass 83 miles west of Kunsan Air Base and 106 miles west of Camp Humphreys, Osan Air Base and Yongsan Garrison between midnight Wednesday and 6 a.m. Thursday.

Model track guidance and the ECMWF and GFS forecast ensembles still indicate a spread among solutions. JTWC reports a 333-mile spread in solutions four days out. Much can still change, as it already has overnight. Stay tuned.


11:50 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 22, Japan/Korea time: Tropical Storm Bavi has strengthened slightly, and remains forecast to become a typhoon at mid-afternoon Sunday, then pass a good distance northwest of Okinawa around mid-morning Monday.

At 9 p.m., Bavi was 262 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base and had strengthened to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan has entered TCCOR Storm Watch.

If Bavi continues on its current course, Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts it to pass 120 miles northwest of Kadena at about 8 a.m. Monday, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts. But that's at storm's center.

JTWC projects Okinawa to be right at the edge of its forecast 34-knot (39-mph) wind band. And since it's projected to pass west of Okinawa, Bavi's east quadrants, the stronger of the four, would be facing the island.

An updated wind-forecast timeline should be available early Sunday morning. Going by the latest timeline, posted earlier Saturday evening, destructive 58-mph winds are not forecast for Okinawa at this time.

Long term, Korea remains in the crosshairs for a mid-week rendezvous with Bavi, should it remain on its present heading.

JTWC projects Bavi to peak at 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts while still well south of Korea, at mid-evening Tuesday.

It should still be packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at mid-evening Wednesday, when JTWC forecasts Bavi to make landfall over southwestern Korea.

Forecast closest points of approach in Korea are 31 miles east of Kunsan Air Base, 15 miles east of Camp Humphreys, 17 miles east of Osan Air Base and 19 miles east of Yongsan Garrison between 3 and 9 a.m. Thursday. Bavi should pass 163 miles west of Sasebo at 5 p.m. Wednesday.

Model guidance and the ECMWF, GFS and CMC forecast ensembles still shows a spread among solutions. JTWC projects a spread of 143 miles two days out and as much as 620 miles five days out. More should be known in the coming hours and days Stay tuned.


7:15 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 22, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Storm Bavi regarding Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Bavi is forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass 125 miles northwest of Kadena at 11 a.m. Monday:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: Midnight Sunday.
-- Onset of 50-knot (58-mph) destructive winds: Not forecast at this time.
-- Peak 40-knot (46-mph) sustained winds, 50-knot (58-mph) gusts for Kadena, 55-knot (63-mph) gusts elsewhere: 11 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35-knot (40-mph) sustained: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

Bavi is forecast to reach typhoon strength by Sunday afternoon, the Weather Flight reports. Once it does, it is expected to slow down and remain with 200 miles of Okinawa until perhaps Wednesday.

Weather Flight also forecasts between 4 to 6 inches of rain associated with Bavi starting late Saturday evening, though some showers have already begun falling at Camp Foster. Stay tuned.


6 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 22, Japan time: Tropical Storm Bavi's forecast track has edged a tad closer to Okinawa, but still far enough away that the island should be spared the worst of Bavi's fury, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest update.

At 3 p.m., Bavi was 324 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base and had picked up forward speed, moving north-northeast at 11 mph and had strengthened to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at storm's center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

If Bavi remains on its present heading, JTWC forecasts it to reach Category 1-equivalent intensity at mid-afternoon Sunday, passing 125 miles northwest of Kadena at 11 a.m. Monday at Category 1- or 2-equivalent intensity. But that's at storm's center.

While a good distance away, Okinawa would be within JTWC's forecast 34-knot (39-mph) wind bands, with the east quadrants, typically the stronger of the four in a typhoon, facing Okinawa.

Kadena's extended weather forecast calls for an 80-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms from Sunday afternoon into Wednesday, with winds peaking Monday afternoon at 47-mph sustained and gusts as high as 76 mph.

An updated wind-forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight will be posted as soon as available.

As it moves north and out of the Okinawa area, Bavi is forecast to peak at 115-mph sustained winds and 140-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Tuesday, Category 3-equivalent intensity, still well south of the Korean peninsula.

JTWC forecasts Bavi to pass 161 miles west of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan, right on the edge of the 34-knot wind band, as it approaches the southwest coast of Korea.

It's early yet, and a lot can change, but if Bavi continues moving as forecast, it's due to retain at least Category 2-equivalent strength as it moves ashore, then weakening rapidly as it interacts with Korea's rugged terrain.

JTWC forecasts Bavi to pass 41 miles east of Kunsan Air Base, 29 miles east of Camp Humphreys and Osan Air Base and 33 miles east of Yongsan Garrison between 3 and 10 a.m. Thursday, still either as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon or a severe tropical storm.

There remains a good deal of spread among model solutions, about 150 miles two days out and about 265 five days out, according to JTWC. Much can change. This is still a very yound storm. Stay tuned.


1:15 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 22, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Storm Bavi, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: Midnight Sunday.
-- Onset of 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind: Not forecast at this time.
-- Peak 40-knot (46-mph) sustained winds, 50-knot (58-mph) gusts: 10 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40-mph) sustained: Midnight Monday.

Weather Flight forecasts between 4 to 6 inches of rain associated with Bavi.


Noon Saturday, Aug. 22, Japan/Korea time: 09W has been upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and has been named Bavi, for a mountain chain in Vietnam.

At 9 a.m., Bavi was 381 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa and had slowed somewhat, north-northeast at 7 mph, and had strengthened to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Updated wind-forecast timeline will be posted when available.

If Bavi remains on its current heading, JTWC forecasts it to curve northeast toward Okinawa, passing closer than previously projected, 135 miles northwest at 10 a.m. Monday, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at storm's center.

While still a relatively good distance, Okinawa should be just inside Bavi's JTWC-forecast 34-knot (39-mph) wind bands. And the east quadrants, the stronger ones, would be facing Okinawa.

Long-term, it still doesn't look good for Korea by mid-week.

JTWC projects Bavi to peak at Category 3-equivalent 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at mid-morning Wednesday, making landfall over Korea's southwest coast by evening, passing 40 miles east of Yongsan Garrison at mid-morning Thursday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

Model solutions remain split, ECMWF depicting Bavi tracking well west of Okinawa and GFS favoring a track closer to the island. More to come. Stay tuned.


8:30 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 22, Japan/Korea time: While the news gets better for Okinawa regarding forecast destructive winds, it's not looking good for the Korean peninsula.

At 3 a.m., Tropical Depression 09W was 421 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving north at 12 mph and holding steady at 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts at center.

If 09W remains on its present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts it to pass 165 miles west-northwest of Kadena at 9 a.m. Sunday. Further away, but still close enough to make for a blustery beginning of next week.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Here is the updated wind-forecast timeline courtesy of Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 2 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 50-knot (58-mph) destructive winds: Not forecast at this time.
-- Peak 40-knot (46-mph) sustained winds, 50-knot (58-mph) gusts for Kadena, 45-knot (52-mph) sustained winds, 55-knot (63-mph) gusts elsewhere on island: 9 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds subsiding below 35-knots (40-mph) sustained: 7 p.m. Tuesday.

Reminder that 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) destructive winds for TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight forecasts between 4 to 6 inches of rain associated with 09W.

There remains a spread among model solutions, 92 miles two days out and 150 miles three days out, according to JTWC. 09W's forecast track could change, could come closer, could push further away. It's early yet in the life of a young storm.

While the news gets somewhat better for Okinawa, it's not the case for the Korean peninsula.

If 09W intensifies as forecast and remains on its present heading, it's due to peak at 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts early Wednesday morning, still well south of peninsula late Wednesday.

It's then forecast to ram ashore over Korea's south coast, and come within 30 miles of Yongsan Garrison in Seoul early Thursday morning still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts.

This could get rough for a Korean peninsula that has already seen a record monsoon season. Stay tuned.


Midnight Friday, Aug. 21, Japan time: Say hello to the ninth numbered cyclone of the northwest Pacific's 2020 season.

And with the first warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on Tropical Depression 09W, the picture regarding Okinawa is coming into better focus.

At 9 p.m. Friday, 09W was 470 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving north at 12 mph with 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa remains the same as previously posted, and should be updated about 8 a.m. Saturday.

If 09W remains on its current course, JTWC projects it to remain fairly weak as it skirts the east coast of Taiwan. It's then due to curve northeast, away from land and over warm water as the calendar turns from Saturday to Sunday.

09W is then forecast to intensify rapidly, passing 131 miles northwest of Kadena at mid-afternoon Sunday and reaching Category 3-equivalent strength, 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center at mid-evening Sunday.

Though 09W is not forecast to pass right over Okinawa with Category 3-equivalent winds, the island is still going to be in for a rough and rocky Sunday afternoon and evening into Monday.

Long-term, once past Okinawa, 09W is forecast to track roughly due north as the week commences, approaching the southern coast of the Korean peninsula at mid-evening Wednesday still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts.

Naval Base Chinhae and Daegu-Area IV remain in seasonal TCCOR 4 for the moment. The ECMWF, UKMET and GFS forecast ensembles still show something of a spread among solutions. That should smooth as 09W continues developing.

Stay tuned. Expect this to be updated at about 8 a.m. Saturday.


3:30 p.m. Friday, Aug. 21, Japan time: Here is the wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. At 3 p.m., 90W Invest has not yet become a tropical cyclone, and was 535 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: Noon Sunday for Kadena, 11 a.m. elsewhere on island.
-- Onset of 50-knot (58-mph) sustained destructive winds: 7 p.m. Sunday for Kadena, 6 p.m. elsewhere on Okinawa, until 1 p.m. Monday.

Reminder that 35-knot winds meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C (caution), and 50-knots for TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Weather Flight also forecasts between 7 to 9 inches of rain associated with 90W Invest.


3 p.m. Friday, Aug. 21, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.


10 a.m. Friday, Aug. 21, Japan/Korea time: A tropical cyclone formation alert was issued at 7 a.m. local time on disturbance 90W Invest by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 7 a.m., 90W was 638 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed due north at 10 mph. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Kadena's weather forecast calls for winds picking up late Sunday into Monday, peaking Monday afternoon and evening, northwest at 20 mph sustained and 32-mph gusts. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast starting Saturday, a 50- to 70-percent chance through early Monday.

There remains something of a spread in solutions, but model track guidance and various forecast ensembles are in general agreement on a track northeast toward Okinawa, then zigging north toward the Korean peninsula, strengthening as it goes.

How strong it might become, and when, is still too soon to say. Once a tropical cyclone does form and they start issuing warnings on it, the picture would come into better focus. Stay tuned.


Midnight Thursday, Aug. 20, Japan/Korea time: While Okinawa can expect a wet, gusty weekend, Kyushu in southwestern Japan and Korea's southeast coast could be in for more of a weather wallop by middle of next week, if forecast models are an indicator regarding 90W Invest.

For now, it's a wait-and-see game. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Joint Typhoon Warning Center still carries 90W as a "medium" area for development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. That could be upgraded any time.

There remains something of a spread among solutions on 90W, but the ECMWF and GFS forecast ensembles are starting to come into better focus regarding where it might go and how strong it might become.

Those ensembles' best tracks show a path northeast toward Okinawa, possibly strengthening into a tropical depression or middling tropical storm, then northwest toward Kyushu and Korea, intensifying further on the way. And it could become rather severe by middle of next week.

That would come on the heels of Tropical Storm Jangmi, which dumped more rain on an already drenched Korean peninsula which has endured a record-breaking monsoon season.

Much will depend on the short term for 90W. It remains quite close to Luzon in the northern Philippines, which could hinder its early development. Once it moves northeast of land and strictly over water, development could begin in earnest. Stay tuned.


8 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 20, Japan time: They're called "spaghetti models" by the TV weather guys in the States for a reason. Give 90W Invest's model track guidance and the ECMWF and GFS forecast ensembles a gander and you'll see why. Solutions are a bit spread out.

At 7:45 p.m., 90W was 670 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Kadena's extended weather forecast still shows a wet, windy weekend in store for the island.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center has upgraded 90W to a "medium" area for development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
JTWC's latest advisory says it's possible 90W could start consolidating and intensifying as it approaches the island.

But 90W is also grazing the east coast of Luzon in the northern Philippines, and JTWC reports that the close proximity to land could hinder initial development.

How strong 90W might become? And whether it heads toward Japan or Korea after passing by Okinawa? Way too soon to say. Still a lot of question marks; 90W has yet to even become a tropical cyclone. Much can change in the coming hours and days. Stay tuned.


1:30 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 20, Japan time: Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to carry 90W Invest as a "low" area for development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. When or if that might be upgraded is hard to say right now.

And what 90W might mean for Okinawa is still uncertain, though U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, and Kadena Air Base's weather forecast calls for a gusty, rainy Saturday and Sunday.

Rainshowers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast, between a 50- and 70-percent chance, on Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast winds start off southerly, up to 14 mph Sunday morning and gusts up to 27 mph Sunday evening, shifting to northwesterly at 14 mph Monday afternoon with 25-mph gusts Monday morning.

At 1 p.m., 90W was roughly 750 miles south-southwest of Kadena, fairly close to land, just east of Luzon in the northern Philippines, not well organized and struggling to develop.

Model track guidance and the ECMWF, GFS and CMC forecast ensembles show quite a bit of spread among solutions, especially long-term, whether it might affect Japan's main islands or Korea. Tough to tell.

In the short term regarding Okinawa, what might happen is anybody's guess, though the current forecast does not indicate a typhoon-strength storm for the island. At least not right now. A lot can change with a young developing system. Stay tuned.


11:30 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 19, Japan time: Still a guessing game about what may become of 90W Invest. Will it morph into a tropical cyclone? How soon? How strong might it become? How close might it come to Okinawa, or perhaps points north in Japan or Korea?

Right now, the only thing certain is ... uncertainty. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's 7 p.m. advisory on 90W stated it's expected to track northwest in the next 24 hours or so. But track timing and intensity changes remain open to question.

JTWC still displays 90W Invest as a "low" area for development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. It could be upgraded to a "medium" area or a tropical cyclone formation alert at any point, depending on how it develops.

Kadena's weather forecast still calls for showers and thunderstorms developing over the weekend, 40- to 70-percent chance, increasing Saturday into Sunday. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Model track guidance and the ECMWF and CMC forecast ensembles depict movement toward Okinawa, but solutions regarding intensity and how close it might come vary.

The following is not to say what will or won't happen; just a word to the wise about being prepared regardless of what occurs.

Especially with us deep into the coronavirus age, it is more important than ever to be ready for whatever happens. Particularly those who come from locales such as Peoria, Ill., or Bozeman, Mont., where typhoons and hurricanes are hardly a bother.

Preparation and communication. Pay attention to official information and official forecasts. Ignore the rumor mill.

Don't wait for TCCOR 1 to get your shopping done. Do it early. Check your closet. What do you have in there to help you get through?

Get enough non-perishables, water, food for your furry friends, diapers and wipes for the young'uns, to last three days.

Make sure you have working flashlights and batteries, a portable radio that works with batteries or a hand crank. Keep it tuned to Wave 89.1 FM, where a steady stream of official information can be found.

Pacific Storm Tracker is updated with official information every six hours, and as soon as possible when upgraded TCCORs are posted.

Get that cleanup around home and office taken care of early. Move loose objects indoors; typhoon-force winds can make even plastic trash-can lids dangerous airborne objects.

Take down the trampoline, especially; there are enough videos out there of trampolines lodged into transformers, causing power outages. Bicycles and barbeques, too. Get them inside.

Gas up and visit the ATM to get enough cash and local currency to last three days. The power might go out and be off for quite awhile.

Stay indoors during peak wind periods. DO NOT GO OUT during TCCOR 1-E. Avoid the temptation to go to the cliffs and watch or take photographs of the breakers; a maverick wave can reach up and pull you in.

Even after TCCOR 1-E ends and we enter recovery or Storm Watch, first-responders and staff civil would be out establishing safe zones and clearing out debris, fallen trees and power lines. They need room to work. Give it to them.

Point being, you only get one chance. Always better to be safe than sorry.

This will be updated at mid-day Thursday.


7 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 19, Japan time: Now that Higos is making its way inland over southern China, attention now turns to 90W Invest, designated a "low" area for development over the next 24 hours by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Model track guidance, the ECMWF and CMC forecast ensembles suggest a possible track in Okinawa's direction by the weekend or beyond.

Way too soon to draw conclusions regarding exact direction and how strong it might become. More will be known in the next couple of days.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. At 7 p.m., 90W was about 810 miles south of the island.

Kadena Air Base's long-range weather forecast calls for showers developing by the weekend, increasing from 40-percent chance on Saturday to 70-percent on Sunday. Japanese long-range forecast suggest similar. Stay tuned.


1:20 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 19, Hong Kong time: All wind warning signals for Hong Kong have been canceled, the Hong Kong Obseervatory reported at 1:20 p.m. Barring any changes, this is the final report on Tropical Storm Higos.


11:15 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 19, Hong Kong time: With Tropical Storm Higos moving inland, the Hong Kong Observatory has canceled Storm Signal 8 and reverted to Strong Signal 3 for the city at 11:10 a.m.. Once Higos is no longer a threat, HKO stated it plans to cancel all wind signals.


11 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 19, Hong Kong time: Southeast Storm Signal 8 remains raised by the Hong Kong Observatory, but not for much longer, as it stated it would raise Strong Signal 3 sometime before noon.

Tropical Storm Higos made landfall as Wednesday dawned. Its closest point of approach was 55 miles south of Hong Kong just before dawn, and it peaked at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts as it neared land.

At 11 a.m., Higos was 93 miles west of Hong Kong and moving west-northwest at 16 mph. Joint Typhoon Warning Center had Higos still packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph at 8 a.m. JTWC has issued its final warning on Higos.


10:40 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 18, Hong Kong time: Northeast Storm Signal 8 was raised by the Hong Kong Observatory at 10:40 p.m. local time. Signal 8 is expected to remain in force overnight into the morning hours, HKO reports.


10:15 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 18, Hong Kong time: Tropical Storm Higos' forecast track has lurched closer to Hong Kong, where Strong Wind Signal 3 remains raised and according to the Hong Kong Observatory, Gale/Storm Signal 8 could be raised before 11 p.m.

At 8 p.m., Higos was 94 miles south-southeast of Hong Kong, traveling west-northwest at 9 mph and had strengthened slightly, to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center.

If Higos remains on its present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts it to pass 62 miles south of Hong Kong at about 1 a.m.

Higos is forecast to peak at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center as it makes landfall at about 8 a.m. Wednesday just southwest of Hong Kong. Wednesday should see heavy winds, sea swells, showers and possible thunderstorms as Higos passes.

As for 90W Invest ... many more questions than answers, with the ECMWF, GFS and CMC ensembles still all over the place. Hopefully, more should be known in the next day or so. Stay tuned.


5 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 18, Hong Kong time: While Tropical Storm Higos remains forecast to pass south of Hong Kong late Tuesday, a new disturbance, 90W Invest, could be of concern for folks on Okinawa this coming weekend.

At 5:30 p.m. Japan time, 90W was about 1,185 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base. Model track guidance and the ECMWF, GFS and CMC forecast ensembles are pretty much all over the lot at this point. It's early yet. Much can change.

Windfinder.com, based on the GFS model, does indicate elevated winds and gusts with plenty of rain for Okinawa at mid-afternoon Sunday. Bears watching to see what develops, if anything.

In the meantime, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

As for Higos, at 2 p.m. Hong Kong time, it was 148 miles southeast of Hong Kong, moving west-northwest at 12 mph and had strengthened to 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

Strong Wind Signal 3 has been raised for the city, and the Hong Kong Observatory said it will consider issuing Storm Signal 8 between 10 p.m. and midnight, should conditions warrant.

If Higos remains on its current track, it's forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass 88 miles south of Hong Kong at about 11 p.m. JTWC's forecast 34-knot (39-mph) wind bands are facing toward the north and east, closer to Hong Kong.

The storm has been named Higos by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Higos is a name contributed by Guam, a Chamorro word for fig.


11 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 18, Hong Kong time: Standby Signal 1 has been raised by the Hong Kong Observatory in advance of Tropical Depression 08W. HKO also stated it will consider raising Strong Wind Signal 3 by mid-afternoon.

At 11 a.m., 08W was about 200 miles southeast of Hong Kong. Joint Typhoon Warning Center at 8 a.m. projected 08W moving west-northwest at 15 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

JTWC forecasts 08W to intensify into a tropical storm by mid-evening Tuesday, passing 92 miles south of Hong Kong at about 11 p.m. with winds forecast to be 46-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts at center.

08W is forecast to peak at mid-morning Wednesday at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center just before making landfall near Yangjiang in southern China.


1 p.m. Monday, Aug. 17, Hong Kong time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued for disturbance 99W Invest by Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

No warning signals have been issued as yet by the Hong Kong Observatory or the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA, though that could change in short order depending on how quickly 99W develops and how strong it becomes initially.

Model track guidance and the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles all indicate general west-northwest movement, south and west of Hong Kong, toward southern China in the next three to four days, possibly reaching moderate tropical-storm strength.

All this could change. It's early yet.


6 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 16, Japan time: A new disturbance has formed just east of Luzon, the Philippines’ northernmost main island, labeled 99W Invest.

Initial model track guidance and the Global Forecast System’s initial forecast ensemble depicts 99W tracking west-northwest toward southern China, just west of Hong Kong, about four days out.

The disturbance was 680 miles south-southwest of Okinawa at 5:45 p.m., but the island appears to be out of harm’s way given the initial model solutions. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.