Pacific Storm Tracker
Tropical Storm 05W (Ewiniar), # 14
By DAVE ORNAUER | Stars and Stripes | Published: June 7, 2018
5:15 a.m. Friday, June 8, Hong Kong/Manila time: Final warning on Tropical Storm Ewiniar has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0518.gif . Strong Wind Signal 3 remains raised for Hong Kong http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc1.htm and could be upgraded, but Ewiniar is forecast to dissipate over land the next day or so, with remnants possibly edging back over water after passing 55 miles north of Hong Kong Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, eyes continue turning toward tropical disturbance 90W Invest, or Tropical Depression Domeng as named by the Philippines national weather authority PAGASA https://www1.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/tropical-cyclones/weather-bulletins. Domeng at 2 a.m. was about 285 miles east of Casiguran in Aurora, and according to most models https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/90W_tracks_latest.png will track north, then northeast, passing southeast of Okinawa early next week.
What effect 90W/Domeng might have on the Ryukyu Islands is next to impossible to say at the moment. 90W continues to organize and hasn’t even reached warning status yet. Much depends on how well it develops, if at all, and how close it might come to Okinawa, if at all. What’s certain at this point … is uncertainty. PST will keep an eyeball on it.
10:30 p.m. Thursday, June 7, Hong Kong/Manila time: Tropical Storm Ewiniar’s forecast track has edged further east, a bit closer to Hong Kong than previously reported, and according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0518.gif , Ewiniar is due to die out about 105 miles northwest of Hong Kong Saturday morning.
Strong Wind Signal 3 remains in effect for Hong Kong overnight Thursday, according to the Hong Kong Observatory http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc.htm?20180607231614 . Whether HKO chooses to upgrade the wind signal remains to be seen; question being whether Ewiniar tracks closer to the city or the intensity increases.
At 10 p.m., Ewiniar was 155 miles west-southwest of Hong Kong, tracking northeast at 8 mph, holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. Strong gusts and heavy rain squalls continue to buffet the city, but typhoon-force winds don’t appear to be in the cards.
Meanwhile, off the coast of the Philippines, disturbance 90W Invest, or Tropical Depression Domeng as named by the national weather authority PAGASA https://www1.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/tropical-cyclones/weather-bulletins , continues to lurk. Models remain divided on whether 90W will intensify and where it might head once it does, if it does.
The GFS ensemble https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/90W_gefs_latest.png depicts 90W possibly tracking north for another day or so, then curve northeast, passing a few degrees southeast of Okinawa early next week. PAGASA’s track https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/track.png indicates a curve northwest, followed by a turn northeast in Okinawa’s general direction.
All that can change. PST will keep a sharp lookout.
5 p.m. Thursday, June 7, Hong Kong time: Ewiniar has regained tropical-storm strength, peaking at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
But Ewiniar has begun tracking further west of Hong Kong than earlier reported. Still, Strong Wind Signal 3 remains raised for Hong Kong, with wind gusts and rain squalls frequently pelting the city.
12:40 p.m. Thursday, June 7, Hong Kong time: Strong Wind Warning Signal 3 has been raised by the Hong Kong Observatory, as Tropical Depression Ewiniar’s track has edged closer to the city, with wind gusts between 30 and 40 now forecast. Squalls with pockets of heavy rain are forecast, but Ewiniar doesn’t pose a significant threat windwise; thus, the observatory indicates the possibility of issuing Gale Warning Signal 8 is low at this point.
11:30 a.m. Thursday, June 7, Hong Kong time: Ewiniar could regain enough strength to be reclassified as a tropical storm. Its latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes it a tad closer to Hong Kong, still not a major threat to the city, but close enough that the Hong Kong Observatory says it might issue Strong Wind Signal 3 sometime Thursday afternoon.
At 10 a.m., Ewiniar was 210 miles southwest of Hong Kong, tracking northeast at 5 mph, holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts. JTWC projects Ewiniar to peak at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts sometime Thursday evening, minimal tropical storm-strength.
No change regarding 90W Invest or Tropical Depression Domeng.
5:30 a.m. Thursday, June 7, Hong Kong time: Talk about a persistent one. Tropical Depression Ewiniar continues to hang around southwest of Hong Kong and the Leizhou Peninsula. It’s not a major threat to the territory or to southeastern China, but it remains enough of an annoyance that Hong Kong might still upgrade its warning signal, depending on where Ewiniar decides to go.
At 2 a.m., Ewiniar was 260 miles west-southwest of Hong Kong, crawling east-northeast at 2 mph, holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts. It’s forecast to head northeast and peak at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts before making landfall just before midnight. Ewiniar is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to shear apart about 95 miles wes t of Hong Kong early Saturday morning.
Or will it? Some forecast models depict Ewiniar’s remnants drifting back over water, perhaps regenerating, and heading between Taiwan and the Philippines’ Batanes island group, tracking south of Okinawa over the next few days.
Meanwhile, 90W Invest, or Tropical Depression Domeng, continues to lurk east of the Philippines, though close enough that the national weather authority PAGASA forecasts heavy rain associated with the depression over eastern portions of the country, spreading west into Luzon and Metro Manila over the weekend.
Forecast models also depict Domeng curving northeast into next week after tracking north-northwest, well off the coast of the Philippines.
10:45 p.m. Wednesday, June 6, Hong Kong time: Well, that didn’t last long. Ewiniar had a life of maybe six or so hours as a tropical storm and has been downgraded by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to a tropical depression again.
At 10 p.m., Ewiniar was 267 miles west-southwest of Hong Kong, lurking near southeastern China’s Leizhou Peninsula, holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center. Ewiniar is projected to track inland and come much closer to Hong Kong than previously forecast, 118 miles west-northwest at 8 p.m. Friday, but with very little energy remaining.
Standby Signal 1 remains raised for Hong Kong by the Hong Kong Observatory, which has also reported that despite Ewiniar’s distance, some outer portions of the storm have caused gusts and rain squalls for the city-state.
As for 90W Invest or Tropical Depression Domeng, it remains well off the east coast of Mindanao and is forecast to zig northwest over the next couple of days, then zag northeast remaining well southeast of Okinawa, according to the Philippines’ national weather authority PAGASA. That could change. PST has an eyeball on it.
6:30 a.m. Wednesday, June 6, Hong Kong time: The bad news: 05W has been upgraded to a tropical storm. The good news: it’s forecast track has shifted west of Hong Kong, where Standby Signal 1 remains raised, but the chances of Strong Wind Signal 3 being issued has diminished, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
At 2 a.m., 05W was 246 miles southwest of Hong Kong, moving northwest at 9 mph with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
If it remains on its current track, 05W is forecast to make landfall at mid-afternoon over southeastern China.
No further intensification of 90W Invest well east of the Philippines, also called Tropical Depression Domeng by the country’s weather authority PAGASA. No public storm warning signal has been raised, nor does one appear to be imminent.
12:30 a.m. Wednesday, June 6, Hong Kong time: No change regarding tropical storm warning signals for Hong Kong, at least not yet. Signal 1 remains raised by the Hong Kong Observatory as Tropical Depression 05W continues headed toward the southeastern China coast.
It’s forecast to pass 170 miles west of Hong Kong at 11 a.m. Thursday, and to peak at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at 8 p.m. Wednesday before making landfall.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Domeng continues lurking about 415 miles east of Mindanao, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system, formerly known as 90W Invest. JTWC projects it to remain a monsoon depression for a couple of days and move north before curving northeast as a tropical cyclone of undetermined strength.
6:15 p.m. Tuesday, June 5, Hong Kong time: Standby Signal 1 remains raised for Hong Kong, and according to the Hong Kong Observatory, Signal 3 may be raised on Wednesday morning depending on Tropical Depression 05W’s track.
At 2 p.m., 05W was 310 miles southwest of Hong Kong, tracking almost due north at 13 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center. 05W is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to peak at 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Wednesday, about a day before it’s forecast to make landfall.
Hong Kong appears to remain well out of the way of 05W’s central nastiness, but that depends entirely on which way it moves. Initial forecast tracks put 05W west of Hainan Island; four days later, the forecast track takes it well east of Hainan. Forecast models remain mixed at this point.
Meanwhile, a low-pressure area east of Mindanao has been named Tropical Depression Domeng by the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA. No tropical storm warning signal has been raised yet.
11 a.m. Tuesday, June 5, Hong Kong time: Looks like Tropical Depression 05W might miss Hainan Island altogether. The lates forecast track takes it 150 miles west of Hong Kong on Thursday. The Hong Kong weather observatory has issued standby signal 1 as a precaution. Peak winds are forecast to reach 40 mph sustained on Thursday.
1:30 p.m. Monday, June 4, Hong Kong time: Tropical Depression 05W's latest forecast track now takes it along the east coast of Hainan Island over the Leizhou Peninsula in southeastern China, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
If it remains on its current path, 05W is forecast to peak at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at about 8 p.m. Tuesday, just before projected landfall over southeast Hainan Island.
Dynamic model guidance indicates that the remnants of 05W could then curve east, grazing Taiwan's southern coast, then track east over the Pacific Ocean, well south of Okinawa and Japan's main islands.
Meanwhile, a tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued on a new system, 91W Invest, developing southwest of Guam. It's forecast to track northwest, then curve northeast but remain well to the southeast of Okinawa and Japan's main islands, according to model guidance.
5:30 p.m. Sunday, June 3, Hong Kong time: Slight change in the forecast track for Tropical Depression 05W; it now appears as if Hainan Island in southeastern China is in the storm's crosshairs, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest track.
If 05W continues moving as forecast, it's due to pass 321 miles west-southwest of Hong Kong at 2 p.m. Thursday, peaking as a tropical storm the day before, packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.
05W at this point doesn't appear to be an immediate threat to any U.S. bases. Long term, 05W might curve east and make its way in Okinawa's general direction, but there's quite a spread among dynamic model guidance. PST will keep an eye on it.
As for the two disturbances east of 05W, 91W Invest continues headed in Guam's general direction and is forecast to pass just south of the Marianas before curving northeast. A small-craft advisory is up until 6 a.m. Monday, according to the National Weather Service.
Meanwhile, 90W Invest continues lurking east of the Philippines, with questions lingering about direction and intensity. Quite a split remains among model guidance at the moment.
6 p.m. Saturday, June 2, Hong Kong time: Looks like traffic is starting to pick up on Typhoon Alley with the start of a new northwest Pacific tropical cyclone season.
A new tropical depression has spawned about 365 miles southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam, and is tracking northwest at 13 mph with sustained 29 mph winds and 40 mph gusts in the general direction of southeastern China.
At this point, it doesn’t appear to be a threat to Hong Kong or any U.S. facilities, but forecast models indicate a possible turn east toward Taiwan, and possibly Okinawa, in the long term.
There are also two other disturbances, one east of the Philippines’ largest island of Mindanao and another southeast of Guam. The one near the Philippines is a bit of a concern, with a couple of showing a track close to Okinawa and others further away. PST has an eyeball on it.