Quantcast

Tropical Depression 31W (Yutu), #32 FINAL

Standby Signal 1 raised for Hong Kong; upgrade possible Thursday or Friday.

WWW.NOAA.GOV

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: October 30, 2018

2:45 p.m. Friday, Nov. 2, Hong Kong time: Yutu has been downgraded to a tropical depression by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and all warning signals have been dropped by the Hong Kong Observatory. This is Stripes' final report on what at one time was the most powerful storm on Earth this year.

9:30 a.m. Friday, Nov. 2, Hong Kong time: Standby Signal 1 was resumed overnight Thursday by the Hong Kong Observatory as Tropical Storm Yutu continues moving north and weakening.


12:40 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 1, Hong Kong time: Strong Wing Signal 3 was raised at 12:40 p.m. by the Hong Kong Observatory. Winds between 25 and 40 mph are expected for Hong Kong in the coming hours.


11 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 1, Hong Kong time: Happy All Saints Day. Tropical Storm Yutu continues to weaken gradually as it moves north through the South China Sea. At 8 a.m., it was still packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts, but the closer it gets to Hong Kong, the weaker it’s forecast become.

Yutu is forecast to pass 110 miles east-southeast of Hong Kong at 8 a.m. Saturday as a weak tropical depression. Still, the Hong Kong Observatory has stated it will consider raising Strong Wind Signal 3 by early afternoon.


7:30 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 31, Hong Kong time: Standby Signal 1 remains raised for Hong Kong, though Tropical Storm Yutu continues to weaken some as it heads northwest. A brief re-intensification period is forecast for Wednesday afternoon, followed by rapid weakening toward the weekend. Yutu has left the Phlippines' area of responsibility, according to the national weather authority PAGASA.


Noon Wednesday, Oct. 31, Hong Kong time: Happy Halloween. Standby Signal 1 has been raised for Hong Kong by the Hong Kong Observatory, which reports the Strong Wind Signal 3 are not high for Wednesday, but possible later in the week, depending on Tropical Storm Yutu’s track.

 

If Yutu continues moving as forecast, it’s due to pass 185 miles east-southeast of Hong Kong at 8 a.m. Saturday, but as a weak tropical depression. It’s then forecast to die out just before reaching southeast China’s coast.


5:40 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 31, Philippines time: Midway through its 10th day of existence, Yutu has been downgraded to tropical storm status, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It’s forecast to briefly regain typhoon status, then gradually die out as it moves north over the South China Sea, east of Hong Kong.

All tropical cyclone warning signals have been canceled by the Philippines’ national weather authority PAGASA. If Yutu remains on its present course, it’s forecast to pass 206 miles east-southeast of Hong Kong at 2 a.m. Saturday. No warning signals have been raised for Hong Kong at this time.


9:30 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 30, Philippines time: Yutu is barely holding on to Category 1-equivalent typhoon status and is back over open water in the South China Sea. Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 2 remains up for western Luzon and Signal 1 for other parts of the island, according to the national weather authority PAGASA.

Yutu remains forecast – as it has been for the better part of a week – to start curving around to the northeast, passing 151 miles east-southeast of Hong Kong as a severe tropical storm at about 3 a.m. Thursday. And as it has for the better part of its 10-day life, there remains a vast spread among model solutions
– about 1,000 miles five days out, spreading from Hong Kong to well up the southeast coast of China.


6:30 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 30, Philippines time: Typhoon Yutu has made landfall over the east coast of Luzon in the northern Philippines. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 3 remains raised for the central part of the island and TCWS 2 and 1 for the remaining parts of Luzon, including Metro Manila, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. Yutu remains forecast to cross into the South China Sea, where it should die out east of Hong Kong in the South China Sea.


6:30 p.m. Monday, Oct. 29, Philippines time: Yutu could remain a Category 2-equivalent typhoon when it makes forecast landfall early Tuesday morning. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Yutu to be packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts when it reaches landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 3 remains raised for parts of northeastern Philippines, with the rest of Luzon, the northernmost main island, under TCWS 2 and 1, according to the national weather authority PAGASA .

Yutu remains on course to pass 97 miles north of the old Clark Air Base at 2 p.m. Tuesday. Yutu will barely hang on to Category 1-equivalent status when it makes forecast exit from Luzon and back over water in the South China Sea.

Hong Kong could get some significant winds from Yutu as it curves north toward the Formosa Strait; Yutu is forecast to pass 170 miles east-southeast of Hong Kong at 11 p.m. Friday. Hong Kong could see Standby Signal 1 and possibly Strong Wind Signal 3 Thursday through Saturday.


3 p.m. Monday, Oct. 29, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Warning Signal 3 has been raised for Isabela, Quirino and Northern Aurora the eastern section of the Philippines’ northernmost main island of Luzon, according to national weather authority PAGASA. Typhoon Yutu remains forecast to make landfall early Tuesday morning.


11 a.m. Monday, Oct. 29, Philippines time: In advance of Typhoon Yutu’s forecast landfall, Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 has been raised for portions of eastern Luzon and Signal 1 for remaining portions of Luzon, including Metro Manila, according to the Philippines national weather authority PAGASA.

Typhoon Yutu continues to rapidly weaken as it heads west. It has diminished to Category 2-equivalent strength, 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts, and it’s forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to keep weakening as it heads for landfall, forecast for early Tuesday.

Once it crosses Luzon and exits into the South China Sea, it’s forecast to diminish to tropical storm strength, briefly re-intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, then curve north and die out as a tropical depression just off the southeast coast of China.

If Yutu keeps moving as forecast, it’s due to pass 85 miles north of Clark Free Economic Zone at about 1 p.m. Tuesday, then 175 miles east-southeast of Hong Kong at 5 p.m. Friday as a weakening tropical storm.


5 a.m. Monday, Oct. 29, Philippines time: Yutu has been downgraded to a Category 3-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It’s still a dangerous storm as it heads toward the Philippines. Tropical Storm Warning Signal 1 has been raised for portions of the northernmost island of Luzon, according to the national weather authority PAGASA.

Model guidance is coming into agreement; all depict a curve northeast after Yutu crosses Luzon, the question being how close Yutu might venture toward Hong Kong.

If Yutu remains on its current track, it’s forecast to pass 110 miles north of the old Clark Air Base at 1 p.m. Tuesday, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts just before it exits Luzon over the South China Sea. JTWC projects Yutu to curve 140 miles east-southeast of Hong Kong at 7 p.m. Friday as a tropical storm; the city might see Standby Signal 1 or higher raised.


10:30 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 28, Philippines time:Yutu continues heading west, as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, and remains on course to bisect the Philippines’ northernmost main island of Luzon sometime Tuesday morning, continue west into the South China Sea and perhaps even sideswipe Hong Kong in the late term.

At 8 a.m., Yutu was 646 miles east-northeast of Manila and 990 miles west-northwest of Guam, headed west as 12 mph, still packing 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at center. Typhoon-force winds still extend 70 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 220 miles, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Yutu remains on its present course, it’s forecast to make landfall over the east coast of Luzon early Tuesday morning, passing 131 miles north of the old Clark Air Base as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts as it roars through Luzon. No tropical cyclone warning signals have been raised yet for the Philippines, but the national weather authority PAGASA reports they might by Monday evening.

Model guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement on a track through the Philippines, followed by a curve northeast. The question being where and when it might curve. GFS ensemble depicts a curve close to Hong Kong and skirting China’s southeast coast; CMC ensemble suggests similar, followed by a track toward southeast Korea and southwest Japan.

Stay tuned.


9:15 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 27, Japan time: Yutu remains a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon and continues heading almost due west, with northern Luzon in the Philippines the most likely target according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and model guidance.

At 6 p.m., Yutu was 850 miles west-northwest of Guam and 690 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving west at 15 mph, still packing 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center. Typhoon-force winds extend 85 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 255 miles, according to the National Weather Service.

But there remains a spread of more than 1,150 miles among model solutions five days out. GFS forecast ensemble’s best track  shows a curve northeast toward Taiwan after Yutu strikes the Philippines, while the CMC ensemble
shows Yutu continuing northeast past Okinawa and toward Kyushu.

Yutu has entered the Philippines’ area of responsibility and has been named Rosita, by the national weather authority PAGASA.


10 a.m. Friday, Oct. 26, Japan time: With Super Typhoon Yutu moving away from the Marianas, the question remains: Which way will it go in the long term?

At 9:40 a.m., Yutu was 1,035 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed west-northwest at 10 mph — still a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon with 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts.

If Yutu continues on its Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track, it’s due to pass well south of Kadena and head generally toward the Batanes and Babuyan groups of islands north of the Philippines’ main island of Luzon and south of Taiwan.

However, model guidance continues to favor a sharp curve northeast in the coming days. How close the storm will be to Okinawa, which has already taking a beating from Super Typhoon Trami, is uncertain.

The GFS forecast ensemble depicts a curve northeast just before reaching the Philippines, with some outliers calling for a track over northern Luzon. The CMC ensemble remains a mixed bag. JTWC continues to report a vast spread among solutions. Stay tuned.


8 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 25, Guam time: Typhoon warnings and watches for the Marianas Islands have been canceled, according to the National Weather Service. A flash-flood watch does remain in effect, though, as the last of the back-side rainbands keep hitting the islands as Super Typhoon Yutu moves west.

At 7 p.m., Yutu was 230 miles northwest of Guam and 215 miles west-northwest of Saipan, moving west-northwest at 12 mph, still packing 165-mph sustained winds and 200-mph gusts. Typhoon-force winds extend 75 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 240 miles; hence, why some residual effects are still being felt.

In the long term, Yutu remains forecast to keep moving in a westerly direction in the neighborhood of the Philippines, Taiwan and Okinawa by the middle of next week. At mid-morning Tuesday, Yutu is forecast to be about 400 miles south of Kadena Air Base, still a dangerous Category 4-equivalent storm, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts.

For the moment, no dangerous winds are forecast for Okinawa, according to Windfinder.com, which follows the GFS model.

Model guidance is showing more of a straight westerly track, but there remains a spread of more than 1,400 miles among model solutions.

The GFS ensemble best track continues to show a sharp curve northeast in the coming days, but the CMC ensemble is all over the lot, with the best track favoring a curve toward Okinawa, but with a vast spread among solutions. It’s a mess.

Yutu is forecast to enter the Philippines area of responsibility in the next couple of days, and be named Rosita by the national weather authority PAGASA.


11 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 25, Guam time: The tropical storm warning for Guam has been canceled — but a typhoon warning remains in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan, according to the National Weather Service. Guam has resumed Condition of Readiness 4, according to Joint Region Marianas, while the other three islands remain in COR 1.

Saipan and Tinian remain in the crosshairs of the backside winds of Super Typhoon Yutu, after having taken the severest of beatings from Yutu. Typhoon-force winds still extend 75 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 240 miles, NWS reports.

Yutu is the strongest tropical cyclone to hit Saipan and Tinian since Chaba in 2004 — as well as the second-strongest storm to hit a U.S. possession on record, second only to a Labor-Day event in 1935 on the Florida Keys. It is, without question, the strongest tropical cyclone on Earth this year.

At 9 a.m., Yutu was 150 miles north-northwest of Guam and 100 miles west-northwest of Saipan, heading west-northwest at 14 mph with sustained 175-mph winds and 210-mph gusts. Yutu has weakened slightly, but is forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to remain a super typhoon through early Monday morning as it heads west.

Model guidance remains sharply divided, with the GFS ensemble depicting a track much closer to Taiwan and Okinawa than previously reported. The CMC ensemble shows a similar trajectory, but not as close.

Stay tuned.


2 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 25, Guam time: It’s the worst of all possible news for Saipan and Tinian as Super Typhoon Yutu has reach 180-mph sustained winds and is pounding both islands with gusts up to 220 mph, storm surge of up to 20 feet and heavy rain, according to the National Weather Service and the Weather Channel.

The last Category 5 super typhoon to pass this close to Saipan and Tinian was Chaba in 2004. Yutu intensified literally overnight from Category 1- to Category 5-equivalent status ending at 4 p.m. local time. It’s forecast to remain that strong through at least mid-morning Friday.

At 1 a.m., Yutu was 20 miles south of Saipan, 15 miles south-southeast of Tinian and 115 miles northeast of Guam. Satellite imagery showed the eye passing over Tinian with the storm’s northern inner wall pounding Saipan as it moves past. Typhoon-force winds extend 85 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 240 miles northeast and 205 miles elsewhere.

Typhoon conditions are forecast through late Thursday morning for Rota, Tinian and Saipan and tropical-storm conditions for Guam through Thursday evening.

And where Yutu goes from the Marianas remains a puzzle. Spread among model solutions is about 300 miles three days out and 1,150 miles five days out, stretching from a straight run toward the Philippines to a sharp northeast curve away from any significant land masses. It’s possible that Luzon, Taiwan and/or Okinawa could be threatened in the late term. Stay tuned.


8:15 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 24, Guam time: Super Typhoon Yutu continues closing in on the main Marianas Islands, where it’s going to be a long, rainy, gusty Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam all remain in Condition of Readiness 1, and if anything, Yutu has strengthened even more since the last update three hours ago.

At 7:30 p.m., Yutu was 145 miles east-northeast of Guam and 85 miles southeast of Saipan, moving north-northwest at 12 mph, packing 165-mph sustained winds and 200-mph gusts. National Weather Service on Guam reports typhoon-force winds extend 75 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 235 miles.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Yutu to peak at 180-mph sustained winds and 220-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Thursday and continuing through mid-afternoon Friday. JTWC projects Yutu to continue on a west-northwest path, in the general direction of Okinawa, Taiwan and the Philippines’ northernmost island of Luzon.

Where it heads after that? There’s a very large spread in model guidance -- about 1,150 miles between the westernmost and northeastermost outliers. The GFS and CMC forecast ensembles each show a best track heading northwest, then curving northeast, but more and more outliers point to a straight run into Luzon. Stay tuned. This could get interesting.


5:15 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 24, Guam time: This is a bad one, this Yutu, a Category 4-equivalent monster, certainly the most powerful tropical cyclone to threaten the Marianas Islands since Pongsona leveled Guam in December 2002. As of 5 p.m., maximum sustained winds were 150 mph. Yutu is forecast to pass just southwest of Tinian and Saipan overnight Wednesday and only get stronger into Friday.

Guam has entered Condition of Readiness 1 according to Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense  and Joint Region Marianas. Saipan, Tinian and Rota remain in COR 1 and under a typhoon warning while Guam remains under a tropical storm warning, according to the National Weather Service.

Typhoon conditions are forecast for Rota, Tinian and Saipan through late Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions forecast for Guam through Thursday evening, NWS reports. Typhoon-force winds extend 65 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 205 miles from center.


1 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 24, Guam time: Yutu has rapidly strengthened into a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon and is forecast to rake Tinian and Saipan with sustained winds as high as 150 miles per hour overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

At 12:30 p.m., Yutu was 220 miles east Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, headed northwest at 14 miles per hour. If it remains on its present course, Yutu is forecast to pass 25 miles southwest of Saipan and eight miles northeast of Tinian with wind gusts up to 184-mph. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 2, Saipan and Tinian remain in COR 1 expect upgrade to Caution and Emergency Status overnight Wednesday as Yutu passes.

Still not certain how close or if Yutu will come to Okinawa. However, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Yutu to peak two days from now at 180-mph sustained winds and 220-mph gusts, still well away from land. It could be the strongest storm of the season.


7 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 24, Guam time: Saipan, Tinian and Rota are in Condition of Readiness 1 in advance of Typhoon Yutu, according to Joint Region Marianas. A typhoon warning remains in effect for those islands, where typhoon conditions are expected tonight through late Thursday morning, according to the National Weather Service.

Guam remains in COR 3, though that is expected to change at noon to COR 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected for Guam late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening.

At 6:30 a.m., Yutu was 283 miles east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, moving west-northwest at 11 mph, packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend 35 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds extend 190 miles north and 115 miles south of center, NWS reports.

Yutu remains forecast to pass through the Marianas, closest point of approach 92 miles northeast of Andersen, Wednesday evening into Thursday as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, then peak as a Category 5-equivalent storm, 173-mph sustained winds and 207-mph gusts, at 4 a.m. Saturday, but well away from any land masses.


11:30 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 23, Japan time: Could Okinawa be next?

A glance at the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track for Typhoon Yutu certainly indicates that to be a possibility. Model guidance continues to favor a sharp turn northeast after Yutu moves northwest for the next few days. But that turn appears to put Yutu closer … ever closer … to an Okinawa that’s already taken its share of punishment from Trami a few weeks ago.

For the moment, the Marianas remain the area of greatest concern. A typhoon warning remains up for Saipan, Tinian and Rota and a tropical storm warning for Guam, according to the National Weather Service.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 3, and according to Joint Region Marianas and Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense, expect an upgrade to COR 2 at noon Wednesday. Guam can expect 45-mph sustained winds and 55-mph gusts Wednesday evening into Thursday, provided the forecast track doesn’t edge much closer to the island, as it has throughout the day.

At 11:15 p.m., Yutu was 334 miles east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, moving west-northwest at 12 mph and had intensified to 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center. NWS reports that typhoon-force winds extend 60 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 200 miles northeast and 155 miles elsewhere.

If Yutu remains on its present course, it’s now forecast to pass between Rota and Tinian, and 72 miles northeast of Andersen around 4 a.m. Thursday, packing a wicked punch, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center, Category 4-equivalent winds.

Yutu remains forecast to curve sharply northeast once it exits the Marianas Islands; the question is, how soon and how close to Japan and Okinawa might Yutu come?

The GFS ensemble indicates a curve fairly close to the island, while the CMC ensemble’s forecast curve remains quite a distance from Okinawa. Can’t emphasize enough, it’s a young storm, so a lot can change.

Just know it’s time for the Marianas to buckle down and get their safe on.


8:15 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 23, Guam time: A typhoon warning has been issued for Rota, and a tropical storm warning is now in effect for Guam in advance of Typhoon Yutu, according to the National Weather Service.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 3 and Tinian and Saipan in COR 2, according to Guam Homeland Security and Office of Civil Defense and Joint Region Marianas. Those agencies and others are advising residents of all main Marianas islands to prepare while there’s still time.

At 8 p.m., Yutu was 403 miles east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, moving west-northwest at 12 mph, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center.

If Yutu keeps on its present course, it’s due to pass between Saipan and Tinian and 98 miles northeast of Andersen between 3 and 4 a.m. Thursday, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts.

Though the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track indicates a northwest run in Okinawa’s general direction, model guidance in general still favors a northeast curve after the next two to three days, and the GFS and CMC ensembles project likewise. However, JTWC notes that there is a spread of 1,035 miles among model solutions.

Yutu is still young. Stay tuned. Much can change.


12:30 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 23, Guam time: Yutu has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. A typhoon warning has been issued for Tinian and Saipan by the National Weather Service on Guam. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Rota. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Guam.

At 10 a.m., Yutu was 476 miles east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, headed northwest at 14 mph, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts. If it remains on its current path, Yutu is forecast to pass 8 miles northeast of Saipan and 132 miles northeast of Andersen between 2 and 3 a.m. Thursday as a Category 3-equivalent storm, 132-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 3, according to Joint Region Marianas. Expect an upgrade to that sometime later Tuesday or early Wednesday. Tinian and Saipan are in COR 2, according to the CNMI Joint Information Center.

Model guidance remains somewhat divided, though in agreement on a continued track northwest through Thursday, peaking as a Category 5-equivalent typhoon early Thursday, then making a sharp curve northeast. Best tracks from the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles indicate the same. Stay tuned.


9 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 23, Guam time: Guam has entered Condition of Readiness 3 in advance of Tropical Storm Yutu. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.


7:30 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 23, Guam time: A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Guam and some of the outer Marianas islands, while a typhoon watch remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan, according to the National Weather Service. Yutu continues rapidly intensifying and could become a typhoon by mid-day Tuesday. At 7:20 a.m., Yutu was about 550 miles east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, moving west-northwest at 14 mph, packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts. Tropical storm-force winds extend 75 miles southwest of center and 145 miles elsewhere, NWS reports.

If Yutu remains on its present course, it’s forecast to pass 132 miles northeast of Andersen at 5 a.m. Thursday. Though damaging winds aren’t forecast for Guam at present, Guam’s Department of Homeland Security and Office of Civil Defense are urging residents to take precautions.

There remains a spread among model guidance, which continues showing a northwest track followed by a curve northeast. Stay tuned.


8 p.m. Monday, Oct. 22, Guam time: Typhoon watches are now in effect for Tinian and Saipan along with a tropical-storm watch for Rota, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. No watches or warnings are in effect for Guam yet, but NWS asks that Guam residents monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Yutu.

At 7:30 p.m., Yutu was 697 miles east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, moving northwest at 14 mph with 46 mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts. NWS reports tropical storm-force winds extend 140 miles northeast of center and 115 miles elsewhere.

Guam Homeland Security and Office of Civil Defense continues to ask residents to take precautions now.

Model guidance is coming into better agreement, but there remains a 620-mile spread between the most outlying ensemble trackers.

Best tracks in both the Global Forecast System and Canadian Meteorological Center  ensembles indicate a northwest track followed by a northeast curve, well away from any significant land masses.

Again, the storm is very young, just a day old. Much can change over the next few days.


1 p.m. Monday, Oct. 22, Guam time: Yutu has been upgraded to a tropical storm and remains on course to make a near-direct hit on Saipan and sideswipe the other main Marianas Islands come Thursday afternoon, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track.

At 12:45 p.m., Yutu was 796 miles east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, headed west-northwest at 12 mph. If it remains on its present course, Yutu is forecast to pass 22 miles northeast of Saipan and 145 miles northeast of Andersen between 2 and 5 p.m. Thursday as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon, packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center as it rumbles past.

No watches or warnings have yet been issued by the National Weather Service that could change any time Monday or early Tuesday. Guam’s Homeland Security and Office of Civil Defense asks residents of Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam to begin making storm preparations now.


7:30 a.m. Monday, Oct. 22, Guam time: Jeb, Mangkhut, Trami, Kong-Rey … will Yutu be next up on the super-typhoon parade? And might it affect Japan after passing just northeast of Saipan on Thursday?

Those are the questions regarding the latest tropical cyclone in the Pacific. At 4 a.m., Yutu was 878 miles east-southeast of Guam, forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to become a tropical storm later Monday, a typhoon by Tuesday afternoon, then a super typhoon by early Saturday morning.

If Yutu continues moving as forecast, it’s due to pass 151 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 28 miles northeast of Saipan between noon and 4 p.m. Thursday as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center.

Model guidance remains sharply divided, as do the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles. But it’s early in the life of a young storm. Stay tuned.


3 a.m. Monday, Oct. 22, Guam time: A new tropical depression, the 31st numbered storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, has spawned overnight Sunday.

The initial Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track takes 31W toward the Marianas Islands by Thursday morning, intensifying to Category 4-equivalent strength as it passes 45 miles northeast of Saipan at 4 p.m. Thursday.

The main Marianas Islands remain in seasonal Condition of Readiness 4. Expect an upgrade to that as early as Tuesday morning, perhaps sooner.


11 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 21, Guam time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued on a disturbance developing well to the east-southeast of Guam. 97W Invest was about 1,130 miles east-southeast of Guam as of 7:30 a.m. and forecast to move west-northwest toward the Northern Marianas, developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Global forecast models show the system tracking northwest, then curving northeast over the next few days.
 

from around the web