Tropical Depression 10W (Mindulle) FINAL
By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: August 23, 2016
6:30 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 23, Japan time: Mindulle has been downgraded to a tropical depression and is headed rapidly northeast out of Japan and toward its demise. Expect the all-clear to be given at Misawa Air Base at any time. This should be PST’s final update on Mindulle.
Yokota Air Base still faces some issues restoring power to housing dwellings on the east side after the Biblical flooding that occurred Monday that had many wondering when Noah and the Ark might show up.
10 p.m. Monday, Aug. 22, Japan time: Peace has resumed its sway in the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area, save for an isolated shower and a light wind gust here and there. U.S. bases have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All-Clear. Misawa Air Base remains in TCCOR Storm Watch, expecting 3 inches of rain and wind gusts up to 57 mph.
6 p.m. Monday, Aug. 22, Japan time: The rain. The rain. Oh, what rain!
Tropical Storm Mindulle has moved inland, having made landfall at about 12:30 p.m. over Tateyama in Chiba Prefecture east of Tokyo, and is gradually diminishing as it boogies north-northeast at 20 mph, barreling along Japan’s east coast on course to pass just east of Misawa Air Base early Tuesday.
U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain have begun setting Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Heavy winds have passed for those bases, and staff civil is now fanning out to survey damage, downed power lines, tree limbs, building damage, all that needs to be repaired. Please wait for the all-clear to be issued before venturing outdoors.
Mindulle is due to pass 42 miles east of Misawa at about 3 a.m. Tuesday. Misawa has scaled back from TCCOR 4 to TCCOR Storm Watch, but is expecting heavy gusts and heavy rain, according to base officials via AFN Misawa’s official Facebook page.
And what a deluge left in Tokyo-Kanto Plain by Mindulle! Especially in Tokyo’s western suburbs, near Yokota Air Base, where as much as 4½ inches of rain was recorded in one hour in Mizuho, a Japanese village bordering Yokota. Japan Meterological Agency stated that nearly 10½ inches of rain had fallen since Monday morning in Ome, about 10 miles from Yokota. Low-lying areas around Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi suffered a similar fate.
Photographs and videos posted on social media showed vast portions of Yokota’s east side wallowing in floods as high as hip deep in some places. Both the base’s north and south runway overruns were swamped. Even Yokota’s east gate, near the vast housing area, was flooded, trapping most except for those with large SUVs inside. One video showed a tunnel on the Chuo Expressway, one of Tokyo’s main arteries, choked by wheel-deep water.
Japan national broadcaster NHK reported that about 850,000 people were ordered to evacuate in six Kanto Plain prefectures as of 4 p.m. Monday. In Kanagawa Prefecture, which includes Yokohama and Kawasaki, 285,648 households with 668,727 residents were evacuated, and in Tokyo, 51,986 households with 115,299 residents.
Japan Railways East resumed operations on the Yokohama Line about 2:20 p.m. Trees from adjacent Meiji Shrine fell above the railroad tracks at Harajuku Station at 3 p.m., forcing the Yamanote Line to cease operation shortly after.
Operations at Narita International Airport stopped for about an hour due to strong wind, Asahi Shimbun reported. Workers in the control tower evacuated since the wind speed exceeded the standard speed of 30 meters and the 90-meter-high control tower was shaking, Asahi reported. The airport shut down its two runways and stopped operations between 2:20 p.m. and 3:37 p.m.
NHK tallied 12 people sustained injuries in Tokyo and four surrounding prefectures as of 4 p.m. A man in his 40s fell in the strong wind in Kawasaki city, sustaining broken bones. A 34-year-old Shizuoka prefecture official, working on a roadside in Ito city, fell in the strong winds and broke his ribs, NHK reported.
It's the sort of deluge that may have had more than a few souls seeking Noah and the ark.
3:02 p.m., Monday, Aug. 22, Japan time: Mindulle landed near Tateyama city in Chiba prefecture arround 12:30 p.m., according to NHK.
There have been heavy rain and wind in Kanto area. JMA measured a record-high rainfall in a short period of time in Mizuho town near Yokota Air Base. Wind was about 110 mph by 1 p.m., NHK reported.
Atsugi city issued an evacuation order to 16,170 households with 39,265 residents because of the danger of nearby rivers overflowing.
Yokohama city ordered 3108 households with 6,848 residents to evacuate.
Noon Monday, Aug. 22, Japan time:Mindulle remains a severe tropical storm and is venting its wrath on the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area, causing flooding, train and flight cancellations and delays and keeping U.S. bases in lockdown.
Yokosuka Naval Base and its satellite facilities have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency); sustained 58-mph winds or greater are occurring and all outdoor activity is prohibited. Naval Air Facility Atsugi is in TCCOR 1-C (caution) with winds up to 57 mph occurring.
Atsugi was experiencing what its official Facebook page termed severe flooding, with heavy rain forecast throughout the day Monday. Yokota Air Base’s Facebook page reported both north and south runway overruns are closed due to flooding; east, west and terminal gates are open for people needing to access the other sides of base. Camp Zama also reported flooding caused by debris clogging drainage.
Japan’s national broadcaster NHK reported that rain is forecast until 7 a.m. Tuesday, with up to 12 inches of rain forecast for Tokyo and nearly 8 inches for Japan’s northeast regions, northern Honshu and Hokkaido island. Parts of Shizuoka have already received almost 14 inches of rain and portions of Izu and Kanagawa between 6 and 8 inches. On Miyake island, Japan Meteorological Agency reported a 93-mph wind gust.
Some 425 flights have been canceled nationwide as of 11:30 a.m., most serving Tokyo International Airport at Haneda.
More than 100 Japan Railway liners and express trains were canceled. JR service for Enoshima and the Ome line between Ome and Okutama was suspended at 9:30 a.m. Delays have been reported on other lines, particularly the Chuo line.
A landslide watch has been set for parts of Tokyo and Kanagawa prefecture.
Evacuation orders have been given in 20 sections of Machida, for 2,892 households with 6,319 people in Yokohama and 8,698 households with 21,087 residents in Atsugi. Fifteen rivers have gone over flood stage in Tokyo, Kanagawa and Saitama prefectures.
Yamagata high-speed rail service will be shut down by Japan Railways on Monday afternoon. Many regular rail lines have significantly decreased numbers of trains operation in the Kanto Plain. JR Yokohama line between Machida and Hashimoto stopped about 11:30 a.m. and Keio line between Chofu and Hashimoto about 11 a.m.
6 a.m. Monday, Aug. 22, Japan time: It’s happening, campers. Tropical Storm Mindulle is barreling its way on shore in the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area, bringing with it high winds and sideways rain. U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1.
Mindulle should remain a severe tropical storm, peaking at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts as it gives a glancing blow to Yokosuka Naval Base and a near-direct hit on Naval Air Facility Atsugi, Camp Zama and Yokota Air Base between noon and 1 p.m. As it interacts with land, expect forward speed to increase and wind speeds to decrease slightly.
Misawa Air Base should still get a healthy dose of Mindulle, 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts as it also gets a near-direct hit early Tuesday morning.
7 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 21, Japan time: Fleet Activities Yokosuka has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours. Other bases should follow suit shortly.
6 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 21, Japan time: Bases throughout the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area are battening down the hatches in anticipation of the forecast arrival of Mindulle on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 is in effect throughout the area. Expect an upgrade to TCCOR 1 late Sunday evening or early Monday morning according to official base Facebook pages.
Non-essential personnel are advised to stay in their quarters, on or off base, between 1 a.m. Monday and 7 p.m. Tuesday. First duty day for DODEA teachers has been called off. Mission-essential and emergency personnel will report for duty as needed. Most services will be shut down, save for urgent medical care and military dining facilities. Expect road closures throughout Mindulle’s peak. Also, alcohol consumption is prohibited from 6 p.m. Sunday to 7 a.m. Tuesday.
Mindulle is forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to remain a severe tropical storm, just below typhoon strength, as it rushes headlong toward the Kanto Plain. At 3 p.m., Mindulle was chugging west-northwest at 23 mph and is due to roar past Yokota Air Base, Naval Air Facility Atsugi, Camp Zama and Yokosuka Naval Base at high-noon Monday packing sustained 63-mph winds and 81-mph gusts at center.
Misawa Air Base also remains in the crosshairs, though Mindulle should be diminishing as it rolls 17 miles east of Misawa at 4 a.m. Tuesday, still packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.
Expect rain, and lots of it, in the Tokyo and Misawa areas. Base officials anticipate as much as 8 inches of rain in the Tokyo area, perhaps as much at Misawa, which took quite a bit of water the last two weeks from two previous tropical cyclones.
12:30 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 21, Japan time: There may be a silver lining to Tropical Storm Mindulle. It remains on a fast track toward the Tokyo area, chugging north at 20 mph, and peaking at less intensity than previously reported, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
The silver lining is: If a tropical cyclone moves at a rapid rate north, toward cooler waters and out of the trades, the environment becomes less conducive for a storm’s development. If it was crawling instead of speeding, that would be a greater worry, since a storm would then have more time to nourish itself over warmer waters in a tropical environ.
As it is, Mindulle remains on course to collide with the Tokyo area, but earlier Monday than previously reported. If it remains on its current path, Mindulle should barrel through Yokota Air Base, Camp Zama, Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Yokosuka Naval Base between noon and 1 p.m., packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts, just below typhoon strength.
Naval Air Facility Atsugi set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 at 1 p.m. Sunday, with TCCOR 1 to be set sometime Sunday evening. Yokosuka Naval Base set TCCOR 2 at 1:30 p.m. Sunday; other bases will likely follow suit.
Though it won’t be a catastrophic Category 5-equivalent Katrina-like monster, anything above sustained 58-mph winds is still a cause for concern, as is the rain associated with such a beast, which could cause locally heavy flooding.
As Mindulle moves north, it’s forecast to still pack a pretty good wallop as it passes 23 miles east-southeast of Misawa Air Base at about 4 a.m. Wednesday, with 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts in the offing.
7:15 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 21, Japan time: Mindulle is moving north much faster than before and could hit the Tokyo area by mid-afternoon Monday if it remains on its present heading and forward speed, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Tropical Storm Mindulle’s forecast peak intensity has also diminished slightly, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, which its projected to achieve overnight Sunday.
If it remains on its present track, Mindulle should pass almost directly over Yokosuka Naval Base, Naval Air Facility Atsugi, Camp Zama and Yokota Air Base between 2 and 3 p.m. Monday.
Yokosuka and Atsugi remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, Yokota remains in TCCOR Storm Watch; expect those to be upgraded by early Sunday afternoon. Start preparing for storm’s arrival now, just in case forecast intensity picks up. Pack some non-perishables, water, food for your furry friends, diapers for the wee’uns, gas up and visit the ATM, in case the power goes out.
1 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 21, Japan time: Tropical Storm Mindulle has accelerated due north, its forecast track has shifted a tad east and it’s now on course for a near-direct hit Monday evening on Yokosuka Naval Base, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Mindulle is boogying north at 18 mph and remains forecast to reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength by Sunday evening, peaking at 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts by mid-morning Monday.
Yokosuka and Naval Air Facility Atsugi remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect that to be upgraded Sunday afternoon or evening.
If it remains on its forecast track, Mindulle should pass 12 miles east of Yokosuka at 7 p.m. Monday, packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts as it passes. Mindulle should remain a significant tropical storm, packing similar wind values as it rolls 30 miles east at high noon Tuesday.
7 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 20, Japan time: Fleet Activities Yokosuka has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 for Yokosuka Naval Base and Ikego Heights Naval Housing Facility. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.
5:40 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 20, Japan time: Tropical Storm Mindulle has picked up forward speed, heading north at 22 mph, and its latest forecast track takes it on a collision course just west of U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Yokosuka Naval Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; expect that to be upgraded soon.
Mindulle is now forecast to reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength early Monday morning, 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center. It should maintain that intensity as it crashes ashore between the Chiba and Izu peninsulas at around 6 p.m. JTWC projects Mindulle to pass 9 miles west of Atsugi, Camp Zama and Yokota Air Base at about 9 p.m.
There's still some slight disagreement among computer model guidance, but most agree on a course taking it in that direction. PST has an eye on things.
4 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 20, Japan time: Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Yokosuka Naval Base have set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater possible within 72 hours. Yokota Air Base has entered TCCOR Storm Watch.
12:30 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 20, Japan time: Mindulle has slowed a tad and is now forecast to intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it makes its way north toward south-central Honshu by Monday evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
If it remains on its current trajectory, Mindulle should strengthen into a typhoon at mid-morning Sunday, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, increasing to 81 and 98 as it approaches the coast close to Shizuoka, and projected to pass 30 miles west of Yokota Air Base at about midnight Monday.
From there, Mindulle is forecast to arc north-northeast and make a near-direct beeline on Misawa Air Base, 8 miles west at about 5 p.m. Tuesday, still packing 65-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts as it roars past.
Model guidance is in general agreement; just a matter of timing of landfall, where it makes landfall and how much of a curve it makes after landfall. PST is keeping a sharp lookout.
6:45 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 20, Japan time: Tropical Storm Mindulle’s forecast track continues edging west, possibly taking it further west than previously projected. But a wet, windy Monday remains in the cards for the Tokyo area on Monday, should the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track hold.
If it remains on its current course, Mindulle is due to make landfall between Shizuoka and Hamamatsu in central Honshu at mid-evening Monday, passing 70 miles west of Tokyo at about midnight, packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts at storm’s center. Models still show a slight spread; the track could edge further west still.
Midnight Friday, Aug. 19, Japan time: Mindulle has turned back north, but its forecast track now takes it even further west of Tokyo than previously forecast – landfall is now projected for Monday evening over the south-central Honshu coast, Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported.
At 9 p.m., Mindulle was 407 miles south of Iwo Jima, heading north-northwest at 10 mph, carrying sustained 52-mph winds and 63-mph gusts at center.
JTWC forecasts Mindulle to track north, then north-northwest, intensifying as it goes, peaking at Category 1-equivalent strength, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center as it crashes ashore over Shizuoka at about 9 p.m. Monday, then 41 miles west of Yokota Air Base three hours later.
Mindulle is next projected to hook north-northeast, passing 52 miles west-northwest of Misawa Air Base at about 6 p.m. Tuesday, still packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center as it roars past.
6:15 p.m. Friday, Aug. 19, Japan time: Tropical Storm Mindulle's track has continued to edge northwest over the last few hours. Long range, Mindulle now appears on track to pass just west of Tokyo, making landfall Monday evening over central Honshu as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest update.
Model guidance continues to vary, though the majority of models now show Mindulle on course for landfall over the Izu Peninsula. If it remains on its current forecast track, Mindulle -- Korean for dandelion -- could become a typhoon, packing sustained 75-mph winds and 92-mph gusts as it makes its way on shore by early evening Monday.
It should then pass 14 miles west of Yokota Air Base just after midnight, and maintain severe tropical-storm strength as it roars 16 miles west of Misawa Air Base at about 10 p.m. Tuesday.
All this could change. PST is keeping an eye on it.
12:30 p.m. Friday, Aug. 19, Japan time: Tropical Storm 10W remains unnamed and its projected track remains uncertain. It appears as if Yokosuka Naval Base and the rest of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area could be in for a wet, gusty middle of the week, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
At 9 a.m., 10W was 313 miles northwest of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, and had taken a sharp turn northwest at 8 mph, carrying 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.
JTWC forecasts 10W to make a wig-wag journey north, peaking at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts Saturday morning, then diminishing slightly as it approaches Tokyo. Closest point of approach -- at this point -- is 31 miles east of Yokosuka at 8 p.m. Tuesday, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts, but at storm's center.
Model guidance continues to vary; some models show a west track toward Kyushu, others toward Tokyo, others missing the east coast of Japan entirely. PST has an eye on things.
8 a.m. Friday, Aug. 19, Japan time:10W has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Its forward speed has slowed slightly, leading to its latest forecast track which shows it eventually edging closer to the Tokyo area than previously reported, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
At 3 a.m., 10W was 255 miles north-northwest of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, heading north-northeast at 11 mph. While still over relatively warm waters, JTWC reports that other weather factors should prevent it – at this point – from intensifying into a typhoon.
It’s forecast to peak at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at storm’s center a day or so before approaching the Tokyo area. Model guidance varies, but JTWC projects 10W to pass 83 miles east of Yokosuka Naval Base early Wednesday morning. Local forecasts call for 60-percent chance of rain and showers on Tuesday and cloudy skies on Wednesday. All this could change.
11:45 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 18, Japan time: East Japan remains prominent on Tropical Depression 10W’s projected itinerary. The good news, if there is such a thing, is projected peak intensity has been scaled back some since PST’s last update; 10W is forecast to top off at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts late Saturday evening.
10W is depicted to pass 138 miles east of Yokosuka Naval Base at mid-afternoon Tuesday, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center. Misawa Air Base could follow, overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, with more heavy rain as it got earlier this week.
6 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 18, Japan time: A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan due to Tropical Depression 10W, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.
Rota and Guam can expect pretty much the same weather from the last few days, plenty of showers and winds between 20 and 30 mph. For all four of those islands, a small-craft advisory remains in effect until 6 p.m. Saturday and a flash-flood watch is in effect until Friday afternoon.
10W has begun turning northeast and the long-range projection by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is for 10W to plot a course similar to that of Chanthu earlier this week, brushing past the Tokyo area at mid-morning Tuesday and hitting the Sendai area on Japan's northeast coast later in the day. Misawa Air Base could get more heavy rain into Wednesday. Still too soon to tell definitively.
JTWC projects 10W to pass 110 miles east of Yokosuka Naval Base at 9 a.m. Tuesday, packing sustained 52-mph winds and 63-mph gusts at center. Kind of like what happened earlier this week. Heavy rain is forecast for Misawa and vicinity from Saturday through Wednesday, and for Yokosuka and vicinity through Tuesday.
12:30 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 18, Japan time: Yet another tropical cyclone has formed that could affect northeastern Japan in a span of a week, following Omais and Chanthu.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center's initial warning depicts as-yet-unnamed 10W heading in the general direction of Japan's Tohoku region, at this point off the coast, but model guidance is all over the lot. Every chance it could impact 12W to the west as well.
10W is forecast at this point to peak at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at mid-morning Sunday and maintain that intensity as it skirts a couple hundred miles or so off Japan's east coast. Too early to say how much effect it should have on U.S. facilities in that area, though local forecasts call for rain all the way through next Wednesday.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Tinian and Saipan. A small-craft advisory is in effect for those two islands plus Rota and Guam until 6 p.m. Saturday.
PST has an eye on this and the other two active cyclones.