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Typhoon 18W (Phanfone), # 30 FINAL

Super Typhoon Phanfone can be seen south of Japan in this false-color satellite image taken Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014.<br>NOAA.gov
Super Typhoon Phanfone can be seen south of Japan in this false-color satellite image taken Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014.

2 p.m. Monday, Oct. 6, Japan time: Typhoon Phanfone is rapidly moving northeast out of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area. Yokosuka Naval Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi have issued Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery) and Yokota Air Base has declared all clear. PST signs off regarding Phanfone and turns its full attention to Vongfong.


8:30 a.m. Monday, Oct. 6, Japan time: Kanto bases remain in Phanfone’s crosshairs as it approaches the Tokyo area rapidly. Yokosuka Naval Base remains a prime target. All U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 or beyond. Yokosuka remains in TCCOR 1-C (caution). Forecast wind timeline for Yokosuka follows:

10 a.m. TCCOR 1-E (emergency) issued, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 86-mph gusts.
11 a.m. TCCOR 1-E still in effect, 52- to 63-mph sustained winds, 86-mph gusts.
1 p.m. TCCOR 1-R (recovery) issued, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 40-mph gusts.

Between 4 to 6 inches of rain expected.

Stay indoors. Get your safe on.
 


1 a.m. Monday, Oct. 6, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) remains in effect for Fleet Activities Yokosuka and its satellite properties until about 9 a.m. Monday.  Other Kanto Plain bases remain in TCCOR 1.

New wind forecast timeline for Yokosuka:

Early Monday morning, TCCOR 1-C remains in effect, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
Late Monday morning, TCCOR 1-C still in effect, could upgrade to TCCOR 1-E (emergency) depending on wind values. Forecast calls for 52- to 58-mph sustained and 86-mph gusts .
Noon Monday, decreasing to 35- to 40-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts.
Mid-afternoon Monday, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.
Tapering off into Monday evening.


9:45 p.m.  Sunday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base and its satellite properties have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). That means actual winds exceeding 40 mph are occurring. TCCOR 1-E (emergency) is anticipated for midnight.

Here’s the TCCOR projection and wind-forecast timeline for Yokosuka via its official Facebook page:

9 p.m. Sunday, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts. TCCOR 1-C until midnight.
Midnight Sunday, TCCOR 1-E issued. 52- to 58-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts.
10 a.m. Monday, TCCOR 1-E still in effect, 58- to 63-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts.
3 p.m. Monday, TCCOR 1-R (recovery issued), 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 40-mph gusts.

Meanwhile, TCCOR 1 has been issued for Yokota Air Base; all Kanto Plain installations are now at least in TCCOR 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.


5 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Typhoon Phanfone is picking up forward speed as it continues turning northeast, and is now forecast to pass just west of Yokosuka Naval Base, further inland over Tokyo at mid-morning Monday. That’s the bad news. The good news is, it should be in and out of the Tokyo area quickly should it remain on its current forecast track.

Phanfone is now forecast to track 30 miles northwest of Yokosuka, 12 miles south of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 22 miles south of Yokota Air Base at about 10 a.m. Monday. It should be packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mph gusts at its center if it retains its intensity, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track. The wind values for Kanto Plain bases should mirror those, according to local forecasts.

Yokosuka Naval Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi are now in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Other U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in TCCOR 2.



4:30 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Yokota Air Base announced it has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 on its official Facebook page. DODDS schools at Yokota will be closed to students on Monday, DODDS officials said. Employees might have to report to work if the base issues all clear by 11 a.m.



3:30 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 5, Japan time: DODDS officials announced that schools in the Yokosuka Naval Base, Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi communities will be closed for students on Monday due to the approach of Typhoon Phanfone. No call yet on Yokota.



Noon Sunday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 has been issued for Fleet Activities Yokosuka and its satellite properties and Naval Air Facility Atsugi, while Yokota Air Base has entered TCCOR 2.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast track takes Typhoon Phanfone 21 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 10 a.m. Monday.

Impact on the Kanto Plain from Phanfone will be felt through the next day or so. Here’s the updated wind forecast timeline for Yokosuka; wind values will be less at inland bases:

Mid-afternoon Sunday, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 46-mph gusts.
Sunday evening, 35- to 40-mph sustained, 58-mph gusts.
Late Sunday evening, 40- to 46-mph sustained, 69-mph gusts.
Overnight Sunday into early Monday, 52- to 58-mph sustained, 81-mph gusts.
Late Monday morning, 58- to 63-mph sustained, 98-mph gusts.
Noon Monday, 40- to 46-mph sustained, 69-mph gusts.
Mid-afternoon Monday, 23- to 29-mph sustained, 40-mph gusts.
Tapering off into the evening.

Time for preparing is winding down. Get your safe on, Kanto.
 


11:15 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: It gets worse for the Kanto Plain with every passing Joint Typhoon Warning Center update.

Typhoon Phanfone continues tracking further northwest than previously forecast. JTWC projects Phanfone to begin tracking north over the next 12 hours, then curve sharply and rapidly northeast. Though wind shear and cooler sea-surface temperatures are expected to degrade Phanfone, it should still be a Category 1-equivalent cyclone as it chugs 17 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 9 a.m. Monday, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center.

The only silver lining to that cloud is, Phanfone should be in and out of the Kanto Plain area rather rapidly as it is forecast to pick up forward speed as it heads northeast.

Fleet Activities Yokosuka remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness II; expect that to upgrade at mid-morning Sunday. Yokota Air Base remains in TCCOR Storm Watch, while Naval Air Facility Atsugi remains in TCCOR 3; expect upgrade to those as well.

Here’s the updated wind timeline for Yokosuka Naval Base; wind values have been increased due to Phanfone’s forecast proximity.

  • Sunday morning, 12- to 17-mph sustained, 29-mph gusts.
  • Sunday afternoon, 23- to 35-mph sustained, 46-mph gusts.
  • Sunday evening, 35- to 40-mph sustained, 58-mph gusts.
  • Late Sunday evening, 40- to 46-mph sustained, 69-mph gusts.
  • Overnight Sunday into early Monday, 52- to 58-mph sustained, 81-mph gusts.
  • Monday morning, 58- to 63-mph sustained, 98-mph gusts.
  • Noon Monday, 40- to 46-mph sustsained, 69-mph gusts.
  • Early Monday afternoon, 32- to 38-mph sustained, 52-mph gusts.
  • Late Monday afternoon, 23- to 29-mph sustained, 40-mph gusts.
  • Tapering off by Monday evening.

Wind values at inland bases should be less, depending on Phanfone’s forecast track.

Regardless, this thing’s no joke, folks. Winds such as those can turn just about any innocuous objects into dangerous projectiles. Sunday’s the last chance to store or tie down loose objects, make that last-minute run to the Autoport, the ATM, the commissary, the Exchange, wherever you have to go to supply up. Get your safe on, Kanto.


8:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Yokota Air Base on its official Facebook page says the base remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Sustained 46-mph winds, 63-mph gusts and 4 to 6 inches of rain are forecast for Yokota starting around 3 a.m. Monday for Typhoon Phanfone’s duration in the Kanto Plain. Facilities managers and housing residents are directed to tie down or store loose objects, such as lawn chairs, barbeque grills, patio furniture, even trampolines which can become airborne objects. Decision on reporting for work and school will be made Sunday afternoon. NAF Atsugi remains in TCCOR 3 and Fleet Activities Yokosuka in TCCOR 2.


5:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Yokosuka has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 for Yokosuka Naval Base and its satellite properties. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.

Phanfone had a very brief shelf life as a super typhoon, and has been downgraded to typhoon status in the last six hours by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

The bad news is, Phanfone is now forecast to track closer to the Kanto Plain than previously projected – now just 16 miles southeast of Yokosuka, 38 miles southeast of Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi and 48 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base, and later than previously forecast, around 10 a.m. Monday. It’s forecast to be packing sustained 92-mph winds and 115-mph gusts at its center.

Here’s the wind forecast timeline according to CFAY Yokosuka’s weather Web page:

Sunday early evening, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 46-mph gusts.
Sunday late evening, 35- to 40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts.
Monday early morning, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
Monday mid-morning, 52- to 58-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts.
Monday mid-day, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
and decreasing from that point forward.

NAF Atsugi remains in TCCOR 3. Yokota remains in TCCOR Storm Watch. Expect upgrades to those, especially if Phanfone tracks even closer to Kanto.

Get your safe on, Kanto.


4 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Yokosuka has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 for Yokosuka Naval Base and its satellite properties. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.


12:45 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Phanfone has intensified into a super typhoon. It is forecast to pass about 290 miles east of Okinawa at about 7 p.m. Saturday, then turn northeast, remaining on track to pass 77 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 7 a.m. Monday.

Fleet Activities Yokosuka and Naval Air Facility Atsugi remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, while Yokota Air Base and U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR Storm Watch. JTWC places Yokosuka just inside Phanfone’s 58-mph wind bands and the entire Kanto Plain well within its 40-mph wind bands.

Here’s the wind forecast timeline according to CFAY Yokosuka’s weather Web page:

  • Sunday early evening, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 46-mph gusts.
  • Sunday late evening, 35- to 40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts.
  • Monday early morning, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
  • Monday mid-morning, 52- to 58-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts.
  • Monday midday, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.

and decreasing from that point forward.

Time to prepare is now. Get your safe on, Kanto!



3:30 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Things should get disquieting for Fleet Activities Yokosuka and its outlying properties starting Sunday evening into Monday.  CFAY and its properties remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

Pacific Storm Tracker is getting an early look at what type of winds Yokosuka can expect in the run-up. Here’s the wind forecast timeline according to CFAY Yokosuka’s weather Web page:

  • Sunday early evening, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 46-mph gusts.
  • Sunday late evening, 35- to 40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts.
  • Monday early morning, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
  • Monday mid-morning, 52- to 58-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts.
  • Monday mid-day, 46- to 52-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.

and decreasing from that point forward.

Models are still miles apart as to what might actually occur. PST is keeping a sharp lookout.


12:30 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Little has changed in the way of wind values for Okinawa and the Kanto Plain as Typhoon Phanfone gets set to round the edge of a sub-tropical ridge and begin turning northeast, on a forecast track that still takes it southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base come Monday.

As of 9 p.m. Friday, Phanfone is forecast to pass about 290 miles east of Kadena Air Base at about 5 p.m. Saturday as a Category 3-equivalent storm. Forecast winds remain 29-mph sustained and 40-mph gusts for the island. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, as do Yokota Air Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi in the Kanto area.

Next up is a grazing of Yokosuka, 86 miles southeast at around 7 a.m. Monday. The base remains in TCCOR 3 and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track has Yokosuka well within Phanfone’s 40-mph windbands and right at the periphery of the 58-mph wind bands.

Still much uncertainty remains about when and where Phanfone will begin curving north and northeast, and how quickly it will move once it does. All of the above could change.

Regardless, the time to repair is running out. Get your safe on, Yokosuka!



7:30 p.m. Friday, Oct. 3, Japan time: Yokota Air Base entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch at 6:30 p.m. Damaging winds of 58 mph or greater are not forecast to occur, but they’re keeping a close eye on Typhoon Phanfone due to its projected close proximity to Yokota come Monday.



6:45 p.m. Friday, Oct. 3, Japan time: They continue to brace at Yokosuka Naval Base for a possible Monday morning visit by Typhoon Phanfone, although the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center update indicates that Phanfone may track faster than earlier forecast after it makes its projected curve northeast sometime in the next day and a half.

But questions remain among the dynamic computer models about when that northeast curve will begin, and where Phanfone will be when it does. Some models indicate a quick turn northeast, others a slower curve, further west nearer Okinawa than previous projections.

Thus, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, as does Naval Air Facility Atsugi in the Kanto Plain. Fleet Activities Yokosuka remains in TCCOR 3 until 3 a.m. Sunday, with TCCOR expected Saturday evening or Sunday morning and TCCOR 1 on Sunday afternoon. See a list of potential service closings below, should TCCOR 1 be issued.

Phanfone is forecast to track some 90 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 6 a.m. Monday, three hours earlier than previous forecasts, packing sustained 86-mph winds and 106-mph gusts at its center.  Extended forecast projects Phanfone to track past Yokosuka rather quickly, so it could be there and gone in very short order. PST is keeping a sharp lookout.



2 p.m. Friday, Oct. 3, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Yokosuka has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 for Yokosuka Naval Base and CFAY’s other properties, CFAY announced on its official Facebook page. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours. TCCOR 2 is anticipated Saturday evening, followed by TCCOR 1 by Sunday afternoon.

Naval Air Facility Atsugi entered TCCOR Storm Watch at 10 a.m. Friday.

CFAY's official Facebook page announced the following anticipated closures and other service disruptions for Monday:

Schools will likely be closed, as will the Exchange, mini-marts, commissary and base clubs. Expect the galley and fleet recreation center food court to be open. Child development center will be open to dependents of emergency essential personnel only. MWR facilities will reopen two hours after the all-clear is announced.

Onset of destructive winds is currently anticipated for early Monday morning. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Phanfone to pass 83 miles southeast of Yokosuka at about 7 a.m. Monday, packing Category 1-equivalent winds, 81-mph sustained and 98-mph gusts at its center. Yokosuka’s weather web page forecast calls for winds picking up overnight Saturday, 18- to 23-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts, increasing to 23- to 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts Sunday evening.

Time to initiate a general cleanup around house and office, pick up and bring inside any loose objects such as bicycles, grills and such. Disassemble trampolines and bring them inside as well. Make plans in the next day or so to visit the commissary, gasoline stand and ATM. Fill up the car and get enough currency to last three days, in case the power goes off for extended periods. Don't forget non-perishable food, bottled water, a portable radio and flashlight with batteries, diapers and food for your furry friends as well.



9:30 a.m. Friday, Oct. 3, Japan time: Traffic is starting to build along Typhoon Boulevard.

A new tropical depression spawned overnight Thursday east of Pohnpei, and its initial Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes it in the general direction of the Marianas Islands, north of Guam, as was the case with Phanfone. Too early to say where 19W might venture from there, but initial projections take it in Okinawa’s general direction as well. PST is keeping an eye on it.

As for Phanfone, it’s forecast to pass 350 miles east of Kadena Air Base at about 6 p.m. Saturday. Wind values remain the same, 30-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts forecast for Okinawa throughout Saturday; U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

Little change in the extended outlook; Phanfone is then forecast to turn northeast toward the Tokyo area, passing 100 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base around mid-morning Monday. Yokosuka’s weather page calls for winds to begin increasing Sunday, between 23- and 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts expected Sunday evening. Fleet Activities Yokosuka and its properties remain in TCCOR 4.



11:30 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 2, Japan time: PST is getting a first look at projected wind bands associated with Typhoon Phanfone, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts, as Phanfone approaches the Kanto Plain area late Sunday and early Monday.

Still much uncertainty about Phanfone’s projected curve and tracking speeds as it heads northeast, but most models agree that Phanfone should pick up forward speed as it rounds the bend of a sub-tropical ridge and curves toward the Tokyo area.

JTWC projects Phanfone to pass 106 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 7 a.m. Monday and about 10 to 20 miles further from Yokota Air Base, Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi around the same time. Projected wind speeds at Phanfone’s center are 69-mph sustained and 92-mph gusts around the time it steams past the Kanto Plain area.

All of this could change due to dynamic model guidance uncertainty. PST will keep a sharp lookout.

And as if things weren’t busy enough in the northwest Pacific Rim, a new tropical cyclone formation alert was issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at noon Thursday Japan time on a system some 380 miles east of Pohnpei. Well east of Guam and too soon to say how it might affect the Marianas Islands, but JTWC labels the environment favorable for development. PST will keep this under finger as well as Phanfone.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, while Fleet Activities Yokosuka and its properties remain in TCCOR 4.



4 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 2, Japan time: Fleet Activities Yokosuka and its outlying properties, Ikego Heights Naval Housing Facility and Negishi Housing Area were placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 4 p.m. Thursday. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible for CFAY within 72 hours.  Typhoon Phanfone is forecast to rumble 101 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 10 a.m. Monday, packing sustained 74-mph winds and 92-mph gusts at its center.


Noon Thursday, Oct. 2, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Typhoon Phanfone is forecast to pass about 360 miles east of Kadena Air Base at about 7 p.m. Saturday.

But there’s still uncertainty among dynamic guidance, a spread of about 160 miles among the computer models. And Phanfone is forecast to intensity to super-typhoon strength by late Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

As a precaution, Kadena’s 18th Wing, which speaks in one voice for all bases on the island, has issued Storm Watch at 11:30 a.m. to be on the safe side, just in case Phanfone tracks further west.

As far as the Tokyo area, little change to previous PST updates, other than Phanfone is forecast to track a bit further south of the Kanto Plain, 86 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, 107 miles southeast of Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi and 118 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base at about 3 p.m. Monday. It will still be a significant Category 1-equivalent storm, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center. PST is keeping a sharp eye on this.



8:30 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 2, Japan time: Little change other than the latest forecast track taking Typhoon Phanfone a bit further south of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area and also a tad later than in PST’s previous update. Looking at same wind values, but Phanfone is projected to pass 76 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, 98 miles southeast of Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi and 108 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base at around 2 p.m. Monday. No TCCOR changes yet. PST remains on sharp lookout.



11 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 1, Japan time: Still something of a spread among dynamic model guidance, but the likelihood of Typhoon Phanfone hitting the Tokyo area as a Category 1-equivalent cold-core storm increases with every passing update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

In the last six hours, JTWC’s forecast track has varied nearly 100 miles west, taking Phanfone over Chiba Prefecture and close to Yokosuka Naval Base around 7 p.m. Monday, packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mph gusts at its center.

Phanfone is projected to pass 10 miles south of Yokosuka, 30 miles south of Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi and 41 miles south of Yokota Air Base about 7 p.m. Monday. The Kanto area remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All Clear, but expect that to change in the next 48 to 72 hours.

Okinawa can still expect a wet, windy weekend, although Phanfone is forecast to pass some 320 miles east of Kadena Air Base about midnight Saturday, around which time Phanfone is projected to reach peak intensity, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at its center.

Kadena’s Shogunweather.com Web site still projects 30-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts throughout Saturday, with rainshowers; how much rainfall remains to be seen.

Things could get interesting in the run-up to the weekend. PST will keep this under finger.


8:30 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 1, Japan time: PST is getting its first look at the long-range Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast for early next week, and a mid-morning Monday visit by Typhoon Phanfone over or near the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area looms as a possibility.

JTWC projects Phanfone to make closest point of approach to Kadena Air Base on Okinawa some 395 miles east at around high noon on Saturday, then curve northeast, well southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, and skim the south coast of Honshu as it makes its way toward the Japanese capital.

Initial projections call for Phanfone to pass the Tokyo area as a Category 2-equivalent cold-core storm, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at its center, between 8 and 9 a.m. Monday, 74 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, 99 miles southeast of Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi and about 110 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base. Dynamic model guidance remains spread, so much uncertainty remains in the long term.  PST will keep this under finger.


Noon Wednesday, Oct. 1, Japan time: Phanfone was upgraded to Category 1-equivalent typhoon status Wednesday morning by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

It appears as though Okinawa is in for a wet and somewhat windy weekend, as Phanfone is tracking further west than previously forecast. Japanese weather forecasts call for 50- to 70-percent chance of rain and showers Saturday through Monday. Kadena Air Base’s Shogunweather.com website projects sustained 30-mph winds and 40-mph gusts throughout Saturday, diminishing Sunday as Phanfone passes some 340 miles east of Okinawa at about 6 a.m. Saturday.

Phanfone is next projected to curve northeast and pass about 100 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at around 3 a.m. Monday, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at its center. Still too early to say what that means for Yokosuka and the rest of the Kanto Plain; PST will keep all that under finger.



12:30 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 1, Guam time: Tropical storm warning for Tinian, Saipan and the Northern Marianas islands associated with Tropical Storm Phanfone has been canceled, according to the National Weather Service Guam Web page.
 
Appears as if U.S. bases on Okinawa, Sasebo Naval Base and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni may be out of harm’s way come the weekend. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes Phanfone some 430 miles east of Kadena Air Base about 1 p.m. Saturday, 430 miles southeast of Sasebo at around 10 a.m. Sunday and 350 miles southeast of Iwakuni at about 5 p.m. Sunday.
 
Still too soon to say whether Phanfone will affect the Tokyo area or just skim the coast off central Honshu, though the JTWC track takes it into that neighborhood come late Sunday evening.
 
The good news is, this is a fast-moving storm, headed northwest at 17 mph. It will pass over warm northwest Pacific waters, but not long enough to nourish itself as it would if its forward speed slowed. PST will keep Phanfone under finger.


6:15 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 30, Guam time: With every passing update, Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track for Tropical Storm Phanfone takes it further east. Dynamic model guidance has come into better agreement, with only one left as a westward outlier. Phanfone is forecast to continue tracking northwest for the next two days, then begin curving north, then northeast in the general direction of Tokyo-Kanto. Perhaps make landfall, skim the coast, or avoid land altogether; too early to say on any of them. Chances are good that Phanfone will avoid Okinawa, Kyushu and the Sanyo area of Honshu. For the Northern Marianas islands of Saipan and Tinian, flash-flood watch and small-craft advisory remain in effect.


1 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 30, Guam time: A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Tinian, Saipan and the northern Marianas Islands. Also, a small-craft advisory is in effect through 6 p.m. Thursday and flash-flood watch through late Wednesday evening, the National Weather Service on Guam announced. Between 4 to 8 inches of rain are forecast along with wind gusts up to 30 mph.

In the extended periods, it appears Okinawa is out of danger for the moment regarding Tropical Storm Phanfone, but naturally that’s subject to change given the unpredictable nature of tropical cyclones. The current Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track plots Phanfone to pass between Okinawa and Iwo Jima, curving northeast toward Honshu; whether that means the Tokyo area could get a visit from Phanfone is too early to say. PST will continue keeping this under finger.



8 p.m. Monday, Sept. 29, Guam time: Tinian, Saipan and the northern Marianas Islands remain under a tropical storm watch in anticipation of Tropical Storm Phanfone (the name is Laotian for animal) passing through that region sometime late Tuesday.

It should pass well north of Guam, about 190 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base at around 9 p.m. Tuesday as a middling tropical storm, packing sustained 58-mph winds and 74-mph gusts at its center.

Uncertainty is the only thing certain beyond that. Computer model guidance depicts a spread of 368 miles in the extended period of five days, with one group projecting a west-northwest track and the other a more poleward track.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast has Phanfone peaking at 150-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at its center at mid-afternoon Saturday, when it’s projected to be well east of Okinawa, about 450 miles at 3 p.m. Saturday. What it means for Okinawa, indeed where Phanfone will indeed end up going, it’s too early to tell, said an official with Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. PST is keeping this under finger.

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