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Typhoon 17W (Atsani), # 13 FINAL

<br>NOAA

5:30 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 23, Japan time: Typhoon Atsani has a few more days of life left in it, but it most likely won’t threaten any land masses if it remains on its current Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track. Atsani has curved northeast, it remains well away from any land masses and is forecast to die out late in the week over the north Pacific Ocean. Unless something changes, this is the last update on Typhoon Atsani.


7:15 a.m. Friday, Aug. 21, Japan time: Atsani has been downgraded to a Category 3-equivalent typhoon and remains forecast to curve northeast, well out of range of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 6 a.m., Atsani was about 375 miles east-southeast of Iwo Jima, 710 miles north of Guam and 590 miles north of Saipan, traveling northwest at 13 mph with 130-mph sustained winds at center, JTWC and National Weather Service on Guam reported.

Atsani should remain on a northwest course through Friday evening, then start curving northeast into the weekend. JTWC forecasts Atsani to pass about 450 miles southeast of Narita International Airport at around 4 a.m. Monday as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon.


1:10 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 20, Japan time: Atsani has weakened slightly from its peak winds, but remains a super typhoon, packing 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center as it continues its long march over open water in the northwest Pacific, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Atsani should remain a super typhoon at least through mid-morning Friday. JTWC’s latest forecast track takes Atsani about 450 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at around 10 a.m. Monday. It should still be packing 92-mph winds and 115-mph gusts at center, but well out of the way of significant land masses.


7:40 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 20, Japan time: Atsani has intensified slightly overnight Wednesday but remains forecast to track well southeast of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports.

At 6 a.m., Atsani was 610 miles northeast of Guam and 475 miles northeast of Saipan, tracking northwest at 14 mph and packing sustained 155-mph winds and 196-mph gusts at center. If it remains on its JTWC forecast track, Atsani is due to weaken as it heads northwest, and pass nearly 500 miles southeast of Tokyo at about 3 a.m. Monday, packing sustained 92-mph winds and 115-mph gusts.


6:30 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 19, Japan time: Atsani has become the sixth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific tropical cyclone season. It remains far from any land masses, and is forecast to track well off the Kanto Plain coast early next week, said an official at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 6 p.m. Wednesday, Atsani was 610 miles northeast of Guam and 485 miles northeast of Saipan, traveling northwest at 13 mph, packing sustained 150-mph winds at center, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Atsani is forecast to intensify slightly on Thursday, then begin a slow weakening trend Friday.

JTWC forecasts Atsani to track 436 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at 3 p.m. Monday, packing sustained 92-mph winds and 115-mph gusts at center. Not likely at this point that the Kanto Plain would get more than a gusty Monday afternoon and evening, but it’s still five days away from closest point of approach. PST has an eye on Atsani.


7:25 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 19, Japan time: Atsani remains on target to become the sixth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific tropical cyclone season by mid-afternoon Wednesday.|

Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update depicts Atsani peaking at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts early Thursday morning and remaining a super typhoon through mid-morning Friday.

At 6 a.m., Atsani was 665 miles east-northeast of Guam and 555 miles east-northeast of Saipan, tracking northwest at 14 mph with sustained 140-mph winds at center, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

NWS reports that Atsani should maintain its present course but slow down over the next day, continuing to intensify as it continues crawling northwest.

Long term, JTWC’s forecast track hints that Atsani could curve northeast, well off the Kanto Plain coast. Closest point of approach to Yokosuka Naval Base at the moment is 430 miles south-southeast at mid-morning Sunday, at which point it should still be packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center. As with all tropical cyclones, this could change, considering that’s five days away.


7 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 18, Guam time: Atsani continues intensifying and remains forecast to become the sixth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, according to the National Weather Service on Guam and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 7 p.m., Atsani was 710 miles east-northeast of Guam and 615 miles east of Saipan, tracking west-northwest at 10 mph with sustained 130-mph winds at center. If it remains on its current JTWC forecast track, Atsani is due to become a super typhoon at mid-afternoon Wednesday and peak at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at center early Thursday morning.

Atsani remains on course to pass 155 miles northeast of Iwo Jima late Saturday evening, JTWC reports. Tropical storm-force winds extend about 200 miles away from center, NWS reports.

Once past Iwo, Atsani is due to make a slight curve north; the extent of the curve is unknown at this point, but Atsani could affect central Japan by the middle of next week if it remains on a northerly track. PST will keep an eye on it.


8:30 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 18, Guam time: Atsani has begun tracking more quickly northwest, remaining on course to pass Iwo Jima to its northeast later this week and possibly become the sixth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific season, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 7 a.m., Atsani was 730 east of Saipan and 815 miles east-northeast of Guam, tracking northwest at 13 mph and packing sustained 120-mph winds at center, well away from any significant land masses, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If it remains on its current forecast track, Atsani should pass 162 miles northeast of Iwo at about 3 a.m., packing sustained 115-mph winds and 144-mph gusts at center. Atsani is forecast to become a super typhoon early Thursday and peak at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts Thursday evening into Friday.

Atsani should begin diminishing as it continues north. It appears headed in the general direction of central Japan; the question remains where Atsani’s final destination lies. PST will continue to keep watch.


8 p.m. Monday, Aug. 17, Guam time: Which one will become a super typhoon first? That’s the question revolving around Typhoon Atsani and its neighbor several hundred miles west, Typhoon Goni, each heading generally northwest, Atsani toward Iwo Jima, Goni toward Taiwan and the Batanes islands north of the Philippines.

At 7 p.m., Atsani was 890 miles east of Guam, 820 miles east of Saipan and 645 miles west-southwest of the Wake atoll, heading west-northwest at 9 mph, packing sustained 100-mph winds, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Atsani to curve northwest, passing 163 miles east of Iwo at mid-afternoon Saturday. By then, it should have long passed its forecast peak winds, 150-mph sustained and 184-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Wednesday, and have begun diminishing, 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center as it passes Iwo.

Goni is forecast to reach super-typhoon strength sometime Tuesday and Atsani on Wednesday, but that could easily flip-flop. Either way, it would make them the sixth and seventh super typhoons of the northwest Pacific season. The last time two super typhoons were active in the Pacific at the same time was in October 1997, Joan and Ivan, according to JTWC’s archives.


7:20 a.m. Monday, Aug. 17, Japan time: Atsani strengthened into a typhoon late Sunday afternoon, remaining for the moment on a slow track southwest, but is forecast to curve northwest and begin a long march in the general direction of Iwo Jima, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Guam and the Marianas islands, assaulted the other day by now-Typhoon Goni, remain out of harm’s way – for the moment – regarding Atsani, which at 3 a.m. was traveling almost-due west at 7 mph, packing sustained 75-mph winds and 92-mph gusts at center. At 7 a.m., Atsani was 965 miles east of Guam and 895 miles east of Saipan, which took a lot of Goni's brunt the other day.

Atsani is forecast to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts, just below super-typhoon strength, sometime early Friday morning, then weaken slightly as it tracks toward Iwo Jima. JTWC projects Atsani to track within 215 miles east of Iwo at about 3 a.m. Saturday, still packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center.

Long term, there’s a chance Atsani could track toward western or central Japan, but a high degree of uncertainty remains, JTWC reports, over the timing of a possible curve and where exactly Atsani might head. PST will keep an eye on it.


2 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 16, Guam time: PST hasn’t forgotten about Tropical Storm Atsani, which continues to move erratically, but well to the east of Guam and isn’t forecast at this point to threaten the Marianas, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

At 1 p.m., Atsani was 1,080 miles east of Guam, crawling west-southwest at 3 mph with sustained 65-mph winds at center. Atsani could become a typhoon as early as Sunday evening and is forecast to peak at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at center, then weaken slightly as it tracks northwest in the general direction of Iwo Jima in the coming days.

Where Atsani might head in the long term is still open to debate. Dynamic model guidance remains spread, and Atsani is but two days into its existence. PST will keep an eye glued to it.


11:30 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 15, Guam time: Atsani has been upgraded to a tropical storm, remains on track to pass well northeast of the Marianas and is forecast to become the sixth super typhoon of the season by middle of next week, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 7 a.m., Atsani was about 1,145 miles east of Guam and tracking west-northwest at 6 mph packing sustained 40-mph winds at center. No watches or warnings are in effect in the Marshall or Micronesia islands, the National Weather Service on Guam reports.

Atsani is forecast to start tracking northwest, rapidly intensifying and becoming a super typhoon early Wednesday morning, packing sustained 150-mph winds and 184-mph gusts at center.

Atsani is moving somewhat erratically in its early term, JTWC reports, so this might change in the coming hours and days.

Atsani is a Thai word, meaning – appropriately enough – lightning flash.


7 p.m. Friday, Aug. 14, Guam time: A second new tropical cyclone has formed in just the last six hours, this one about 375 miles southwest of the Wake Island group, and forecast to track northwest over open water away from the Marshall Islands where as-yet-unnamed Tropical Depression 17W formed Friday afternoon, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. PST will keep an eye on it.

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