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Typhoon 13W (Soudelor), #26 FINAL

Super Typhoon Soudelor on Aug. 3, 2015.<br>NOAA.gov
Super Typhoon Soudelor on Aug. 3, 2015.

8:30 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 8, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have reverted to seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Winds and the chance of rain are diminishing on island. Okinawa got some trace amounts of rain due to isolated showers, not enough to make a dent after the relatively dry rainy season. Soudelor is still on track for landfall over Taiwan later Saturday morning and over China late Saturday evening. This should be PST’s final update on Soudelor.


1 p.m. Friday, Aug. 7, Japan time: Soudelor has made its closest point of approach to Okinawa, 342 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 9 a.m. Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official website, Shogunweather.com, reported peak sustained 31-mph winds and 47-mph gusts occurred at 6 a.m. at Kadena and 37-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at Okinawa’s southwest end, also at 6 a.m. Trace amounts of rain were recorded; showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the vicinity.

Initial landfall over Taiwan remains forecast for early Saturday morning, with Soudelor tracking 87 miles south-southwest of Taipei at 10 a.m. Saturday.

It should then make secondary landfall over southeastern China about 9 p.m. Saturday, still as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it crashes ashore. Soudelor is forecast to die out over central China at mid-morning Monday.


5:30 a.m. Friday, Aug. 7, Japan time: Much wind but little rain, Typhoon Soudelor is bringing to Okinawa on Friday morning. Soudelor continues to track well southwest of Kadena Air Base, and remains on a collision course with Taiwan, then China over the weekend according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 a.m., Soudelor was 351 miles south of Kadena, heading west-northwest at 15 mph. Closest point of approach is forecast for 8 a.m. Friday, 343 miles south-southwest. From there, Soudelor is due to make initial landfall over Taiwan, 98 miles south-southwest of Taipei at 9 a.m. Saturday, then over the southeast Chinese coast late Saturday evening.

Here’s the extended weather forecast for Okinawa from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site, Shogunweather.com. Winds out of the east the entire forecast period:

  • Friday AM: Mostly cloudy, 34-mph winds with 40- to 46-mph gusts.
  • Friday PM: Mostly cloudy 34-mph winds, 40- to 46-mph gusts.
  • Saturday AM: Cloudy, 30-percent chance of rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms, 28-mph winds, 38- to 44-mph gusts.
  • Saturday PM: Cloudy, 30-percent chance of rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms, 22-mph winds, 28- to 34-mph gusts.
  • Sunday AM: Cloudy, 30-percent chance of rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms, 18-mph winds, 23- to 27-mph gusts.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.


12:30 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 6, Japan time: No change to Soudelor’s forecast track, save for the closest point of approach to Taipei, now forecast to be 100 miles southwest, at 9 a.m. Saturday. Before that, Soudelor is projected to head 350 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 8 a.m. Friday. Peak winds for Kadena are forecast to be 29-mph sustained and 46-mph gusts at 6 a.m. Friday; southwestern Okinawa can expect 35-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at the same time. Two to 4 inches of rain are forecast.


7 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 6, Japan time: Soudelor continues tracking well south of Okinawa, a showery, gusty weekend still in store as the storm remains on collision course with Taiwan and Chinese mainland, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

At 7 a.m., Soudelor was 489 miles south-southeast of Okinawa, tracking almost due-west at 12 mph. Should Soudelor remain on its present course, it’s due to pass 360 miles south-southwest of Kadena at 8 a.m. Friday, packing sustained 127-mph winds and 155-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

Extended forecast for Okinawa, provided by Kadena weather flight’s official website, Shogunweather.com. Expect easterly winds and 30- to 40-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the weekend:

  • Thursday AM: 17- to 23-mph sustained winds, 23- to 28-mph gusts.
  • Thursday PM: 28-mph sustained winds, 40-mph gusts.
  • Friday AM: 31-mph sustained winds, 43- to 45-mph gusts.
  • Friday PM: 32-mph sustained winds, 45-mph gusts.
  • Saturday AM: 29-mph sustained winds, 39- to 43-mph gusts.
  • Saturday PM: Southeasterly 24-mph sustained winds, 32- to 35-mph gusts.
  • Sunday AM: Southeasterly 20-mph sustained winds, 26- to 31-mph gusts.

Soudelor should pass 106 miles southwest of Taipei at mid-day Saturday, then make final landfall over China late Saturday evening.


6 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 5, Japan time: Okinawa is starting to feel some of the initial effects of Typhoon Soudelor, northeasterly winds that began picking up early Wednesday afternoon. But Soudelor is still on course to pass well away from Okinawa in the coming days, so the island should be spared the storm’s full fury, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 p.m., Soudelor was about 595 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving west-northwest at 14 mph. If it remains on its current JTWC forecast track, Soudelor is due to pass 352 miles south-southwest of Kadena at 8 a.m. Friday, packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center and increasing in intensity as it heads toward Taiwan.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Sustained 29-mph winds and 46-mph gusts are forecast for Kadena and 35-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts for southwestern Okinawa overnight Friday, along with 2 to 4 inches of rain, starting at 7 a.m. Thursday, according to Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official website.

Soudelor is also tracking just south of Japan’s southwestern Yaeyama islands, Ishigaki and Yonaguni among them, as it heads toward first landfall over east-central Taiwan, 102 miles south-southwest of Taipei at about 9 a.m. Saturday. Soudelor should make secondary landfall over eastern China late Saturday or early Sunday, then track north before dying out over the mainland.


Noon Wednesday, Aug. 5, Japan time: Soudelor has been downgraded from super typhoon status according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center; its latest track takes Soudelor even further south of Okinawa and Taipei than previously forecast.

At 9 a.m., Soudelor was 660 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, heading west-northwest at about 13 mph. If it remains on its current track, Soudelor is forecast to pass 358 miles southwest of Kadena at 5 a.m. Friday and 106 miles southwest of Taipei at around 8 a.m. Saturday.

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, according to Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s latest wind forecast timeline. Damaging winds of 58 mph or greater are not forecast to occur, but Soudelor remains close enough to warrant upgraded TCCORs in the event its track and forecast wind speeds change.

Kadena can expect maximum sustained 29-mph winds and 46-mph gusts at around 3 a.m. Friday; the southwest end of the island might see 35-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. Between 2 to 4 inches of rain is forecast, starting at 10 p.m. Wednesday.


8 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 5, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, according to Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are not forecast to occur. But Soudelor remains close enough to warrant upgraded TCCORs in case of unexpected track or wind-speed changes.


5:30 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 5, Japan time: Soudelor might not remain a super typhoon for much longer; its core winds have dropped slightly and the latest forecast track takes Soudelor even further south of Okinawa, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 a.m., Soudelor was 725 miles southeast of Okinawa, heading west-northwest at 14 mph. If it remains on its current forecast track, Soudelor is due to rumble about 315 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at 7 a.m. Friday, three hours earlier and 35 miles further away than previously forecast. It should remain a strong Category 4-equivalent typhoon, packing sustained 138-mph winds and 167-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Soudelor remains a big beast, though, and Okinawa should still likely feel some of the storm’s effects; it should be a showery, gusty weekend. The latest extended forecast for Okinawa via Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site, Shogunweather.com depicts easterly winds through Friday, turning southeasterly by weekend:

  • Wednesday AM: 10- to 11-mph winds, gusting to 17 mph, showers in vicinity.
  • Wednesday PM: 11- to 17-mph winds, 17- to 23-mph gusts, light rain showers.
  • Thursday AM: 21-mph winds, 29- to 33-mph gusts, 20-percent chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
  • Thursday PM: 28-mph winds, 39- to 48-mph gusts, 40-percent chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
  • Friday AM: 35-mph winds, 50- to 54-mph gusts, 40-percent chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
  • Friday PM: 37-mph winds, 51- to 54-mph gusts, 50-percent chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
  • Saturday AM: 32-mph winds, 43- to 51-mph gusts, 40-percent chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
  • Saturday PM: 25-mph winds, 34- to 39-mph gusts, 50-percent chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
  • Sunday AM: 20-mph winds, 26- to 31-mph gusts, 60-percent chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
  • Sunday PM: 16-mph winds, 20- to 24-mph gusts, 60-percent chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.

5:45 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 4, Japan time: Super Typhoon Soudelor has peaked at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at its center, and remains on course to pass well south of Okinawa late morning Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 p.m., Soudelor was about 860 miles southeast of Kadena, moving west-northwest at 15 mph. If it remains on its current forecast track, Soudelor is due to pass some 280 miles southwest of Kadena at around 10 a.m. Friday as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center.

Though Soudelor’s projected track takes storm’s center out of Okinawa’s range, it’s a fairly large storm in terms of diameter, and the island should get its fair share of easterly winds plus showers and scattered thunderstorms Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Here’s the latest forecast wind time line from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight as of 1 p.m. Tuesday:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: midnight Thursday.
  • Maximum 35-mph sustained winds, 52-mph gusts for Kadena: midnight Thursday (40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts for southwest Okinawa.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: midnight Friday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Expect a possible upgrade to TCCOR 3 sometime Wednesday morning. Between 2 to 4 inches of rain associated with Soudelor are forecast, starting at 3 a.m. Thursday.

Soudelor is then forecast to clip northeast Taiwan, 16 miles south of Taipei, at 10 a.m. Saturday, then plow into the Chinese mainland late Saturday afternoon, still maintaining Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength.


5:45 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 4, Japan time: Soudelor intensified overnight Monday into the fifth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season. It remains on track to pass southwest of Okinawa and toward Japan’s southwestern Yaeyama islands and Taiwan later this week, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 a.m., Soudelor was about 1,020 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, tracking west-northwest at 13 mph, packing sustained 178-mph winds and 219-mph gusts at its center – the strongest storm recorded this season.

JTWC forecasts Soudelor to peak at 184-mph sustained winds and 225-mph gusts and remain a super typhoon until just before landfall Saturday over northeast Taiwan.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Though Soudelor is forecast to pass about 270 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at 8 a.m. Friday, Okinawa should feel some effects from Soudelor’s outer wind and rain bands.

Following is the extended weather forecast from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official website, Shogunweather.com:

  • Thursday: Morning, northeast winds, 22 mph with 31- to 37-mph gusts. Afternoon and evening, 31-mph easterly winds, 45- to 56-mph gusts, 40-percent chance of rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms.
  • Friday: Morning, easterly winds of 39-mph, 57- to 60-mph gusts, 50-percent chance of rainshowers and scattered thunderstorms. Afternoon and evening, southeasterly 38-mph winds, 53- to 59-mph gusts, 60-percent chance of rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms.
  • Saturday: 50-percent chance of rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the day. Morning, southeasterly 30-mph winds, 42- to 48-mph gusts. Afternoon and evening, southeasterly 23-mph winds, 32- to 37-mph gusts.

Okinawa should escape Soudelor’s full fury if it remains on its current forecast track. Still, those conditions are not exactly benign; take a look around office and home and tie down or bring inside loose objects that could be blown around in high winds. Get your safe on.


5:45 p.m. Monday, Aug. 3, Japan time: Soudelor continues moving northwest away from the Marianas, on a course taking it slightly closer to Okinawa than previously forecast. A near-direct hit on Taipei is also possible in the long term, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 p.m., Soudelor was about 1,130 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed northwest at 15 mph, packing maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. Typhoon-force winds extend 30 miles from Soudelor’s center, while tropical storm-force winds extend 125 miles north of center and 100 miles south, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

JTWC projects Soudelor to peak at 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at midafternoon Wednesday, making it the fifth Category 5-equivalent super typhoon of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season; it should start gradually diminishing as it continues roughly northwest.

If it remains on its current forecast track, Soudelor should rumble 235 miles southwest of Okinawa at about 9 a.m. Friday, about 10 miles closer than projected in the last update.

Though forecast to diminish into a Category 3-equivalent typhoon as it passes Okinawa, Soudelor should still be packing a significant wallop. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official website forecasts showers and easterly winds throughout Thursday and Friday, peaking at 35-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts Thursday evening.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.


1 p.m. Monday, Aug. 3, Guam time: Typhoon and tropical-storm warnings have been canceled for Saipan, Tinian and Rota as Soudelor has begun moving west-northwest of the Marianas across open water toward southwestern Japan and Taiwan, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Weather Service on Guam.

At 11 a.m., Soudelor was 150 miles west-northwest of Saipan, 150 miles northwest of Tinian and 180 north-northwest of Rota, packing maximum sustained 120-mph winds and heading west-northwest at 13 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend 110 miles north of center and 80 miles south, NWS reports.

Long term, Soudelor is forecast to become a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon, the fifth of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, late Monday evening, then peak at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at center late Tuesday evening, a tick or two below previous projections.

JTWC projects Soudelor to rumble about 245 miles southwest of Okinawa at about 10 a.m. Friday. Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web page, Shogunweather.com, forecasts peak sustained 35-mph winds and 58-mph gusts Thursday evening.

Beyond that, Soudelor is forecast to make an almost-direct hit on Japan’s southwestern Ishigaki island, then pass 40 miles northeast of Taipei, still retaining a powerful punch, 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts as it slams into Taiwan’s northeast coast.


7 a.m. Monday, Aug. 3, Guam time: Typhoon conditions have subsided on Saipan and Tinian, with tropical-storm conditions forecast to last a few more hours, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Meanwhile, Soudelor is forecast to become the fifth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific tropical cyclone season, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 4 a.m., Soudelor was 65 miles west-northwest of Saipan, 60 miles northwest of Tinian and 105 miles north of Rota. Soudelor is packing sustained 115-mph winds, according to the NWS. Typhoon-force winds extend 20 miles from center, while tropical storm-force winds extend 90 miles north of center and 50 miles south.

As Soudelor heads northwest of the Marianas Islands, it’s forecast to intensify rapidly, likely becoming a super typhoon early Tuesday morning and peaking at 167-mph sustained winds and 200-mph gusts early Wednesday morning.

JTWC reports that Soudelor remains on course to plow through Japan’s southwestern Yaeyama islands and possibly the north edges of Taiwan. Soudelor is forecast to pass about 250 miles southwest of Okinawa at mid-morning Friday, possibly still maintaining super-typhoon strength.

Shogunweather.com, Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site, calls for winds to start picking up Wednesday evening.

Okinawa can expect northeasterly winds on Thursday and showers, 23-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts in the morning, increasing to 35 and 58 by evening. Friday should see easterly winds, 35-mph sustained and 46-mph gusts in the morning, turning southeasterly, 29-mph sustained and 40-mph gusts in the evening.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.


11:15 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Guam time: Typhoon Soudelor is on course to make a direct hit on Saipan, the eye crossing the island as the calendar flips from Sunday to Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian, while Rota remains under a tropical storm warning. Things should start calming down late Monday. Tropical storm-force winds extend 100 miles north of center and 60 miles south.


6:15 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Guam time: Saipan and Tinian are bracing for a blustery, wet Sunday evening as Typhoon Soudelor continues tracking toward the Marianas Islands, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Weather Service on Guam.

At 5 p.m., Soudelor was 60 miles east-southeast of Saipan and 70 miles east-southeast of Tinian, moving almost due-west at 17 mph, on course to pass almost directly over Saipan and 13 miles northeast of Tinian between 10 and 11 p.m. Sunday, packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mph gusts.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian, while Rota remains under a tropical storm warning. Soudelor is forecast to rumble about 80 miles northeast of Rota at about 10 p.m. Sunday. No watches or warnings are in effect for Guam; Soudelor should pass 120 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, also at about 10 p.m.

Soudelor is projected to assume a northwesterly track as it exits the Marianas on Monday, still on course to track in the general direction of Taiwan and Japan’s southwestern Yaeyama Islands. JTWC forecasts Soudelor to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Wednesday, then track 265 miles southwest of Okinawa early Friday morning Japan time.


5 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Guam time: Soudelor strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon late Sunday afternoon as it closed in on the main Marianas Islands, 60 miles east of Saipan and 70 miles east of Tinian as of 5 p.m. Sunday. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian and a tropical-storm warning for Rota.


1:15 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Guam time: Soudelor remains a tropical storm for now, but is forecast to intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon just as it passes Saipan late Sunday evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10 a.m., Soudelor was 170 miles east-southeast of Saipan, tracking west-northwest at 17 mph. If it remains on its forecast track, Soudelor should pass about 7 miles northeast of Saipan and 24 miles northeast of Tinian at 10 p.m. Sunday, packing sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts at center.

Saipan and Tinian each remain under a typhoon warning, while Rota is now under a tropical storm warning and Guam is under a small-craft advisory, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Tropical storm-force winds extend 90 miles north of center and 75 miles south.

Guam can expect westerly winds between 20 and 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, turning southwesterly into Monday, NWS reported.

Dynamic model guidance remains in good agreement in the later term, Soudelor continuing to track west-northwest toward Japan’s southwestern Yaeyama Islands and in Taiwan’s general direction.

JTWC projects Soudelor to track 250 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at about 4 a.m. Friday, packing sustained 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at storm’s center Thursday evening.

Shogunweather.com, Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site, continues to project the heavy stuff to start Wednesday evening into Thursday, sustained easterly 34-mph winds and 48- to 53-mph gusts plus a 40-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.


9:40 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Guam time: Soudelor continues on an almost due west track. Saipan can expect a near-direct hit, just as Soudelor is forecast to strengthen into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon Sunday afternoon into the evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 8 a.m., Soudelor was about 230 miles east-southeast of Saipan, or 320 miles east-southeast of Guam, moving west at 11 mph. If it remains on its JTWC forecast track, Soudelor is due to rumble 12 miles northeast of Saipan and 26 miles northeast of Tinian, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at its center.

Saipan and Tinian remain under a typhoon warning, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

In the extended term, Soudelor remains on track toward west-northwest toward Japan’s southwestern Yaeyama islands and in the general direction of Taiwan; dynamic model guidance remains in good agreement on the forecast track, JTWC reports. Soudelor should pass some 270 miles south-southwest of Okinawa late Thursday evening.

The extended weather forecast at Shogunweather.com, Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site, calls for  winds to start picking up Wednesday afternoon and evening, 18-mph easterly winds and 24- to 29-mph gusts. Thursday should see 25-mph easterly winds and 35- to 44-mph gusts, increasing to 34-mph sustained winds and 48- to 53-mph gusts into the evening.

On another note, JTWC early Sunday morning issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on a disturbance about 540 miles southeast of Tokyo. PST will keep an eye on it for further development in the coming hours.


12:45 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Guam time: Tropical Storm Soudelor has resumed an almost-due west track again, and the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center update depicts Soudelor edging closer to Saipan and Tinian late Sunday evening.

At 10 p.m., Soudelor was about 340 miles east of Saipan, heading west at 15 mph. If it remains on its current forecast track, Soudelor should rumble 16 miles northeast of Saipan and 34 miles northeast of Tinian at about 9 p.m. Sunday as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at its center.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian, with typhoon conditions, 74-mph winds or greater, forecast within 24 hours, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Rota remains under tropical storm watch. Tropical storm-force winds extend 80 miles from center, mainly on Soudelor’s north side.

In the long term, JTWC projects Soudelor to rapidly intensify, peaking at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at center Tuesday evening, then gradually diminish as it crosses the 20th Parallel on its projected northwest path.

Soudelor is forecast to track toward Japan’s southwestern Yaeyama island group, including Ishigaki and Miyako, and about 270 miles south-southwest of Okinawa at around 9 p.m. Thursday.

Dynamic model guidance has come into better agreement in the last six hours on a continued northwest track; no curve toward Japan’s main islands is in the cards, according to JTWC. Too early to tell how much of Soudelor’s force Okinawa will experience at this point; it’s still at least five days out.


7:10 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 1, Guam time: After tracking due west for most of its first two days, Tropical Storm Soudelor’s track has bumped slightly northwest, and Saipan and Tinian remain due for a wet, gusty Sunday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Weather Service on Guam.

At 6 p.m., Soudelor was about 430 miles east of Saipan, tracking west-northwest (290 degrees) at around 9 mph. If it remains on its JTWC forecast track, Soudelor should pass 40 miles northeast of Saipan, 57 miles northeast of Tinian and 125 miles northeast of Rota between 8 and 9 p.m. Sunday, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 110-mph gusts at its center.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian and a tropical storm watch for Rota, NWS Guam stated. Tropical storm-force winds extend 105 miles from Soudelor’s center; Saipan and Tinian should be well within that radius, if Soudelor remains on its forecast track.

Soudelor is still due to peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts over open water at about mid-afternoon Tuesday, then gradually diminish as it continues to push northwest.

Long term, it’s generally agreed that Soudelor will track northwest; but there remains a spread of nearly 200 miles among dynamic computer models regarding a possible destination.

JTWC depicts Soudelor to be about 270 miles south of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at mid-afternoon Thursday, still packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at its center. But … all that’s still five days out and much can change in the interim.

Shogunweather.com, Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site, offers an indication with its extended forecast: Easterly winds of 16 mph with gusts between 20 and 27 mph are forecast for Wednesday afternoon and evening.


3 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 1, Guam time: Saipan and Tinian are now under a typhoon warning and Rota under tropical storm watch in anticipation of Tropical Storm Soudelor’s arrival, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Typhoon conditions, including damaging winds of 74 mph or greater, are likely within 24 hours for Saipan and Tinian, while Rota can expect tropical storm conditions, including winds of 35 mph or greater, within 36 hours.

At 1 p.m., Soudelor was 470 miles east of Saipan, 475 miles east of Tinian and 495 miles east of Rota, moving west at 16 mph and carrying sustained 40-mph winds and 52-mph gusts at its center.

If Soudelor remains on its Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track, it should pass 46 miles northeast of Saipan and 63 miles northeast of Tinian at about 8 p.m. Sunday and 130 miles northeast of Rota at about 9 p.m., packing sustained 104-mph winds and 127-mph gusts at its center.

No watches or warnings are in effect for Guam. Soudelor’s closest point of approach is forecast to be about 170 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base at about 9 p.m. Sunday.

The outlying northern Marianas islands remain under typhoon watch, NWS stated.


1:15 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 1, Guam time: It might be more of a rainy, gusty Sunday than previously forecast for Saipan and Tinian, and the uncertainty over where Soudelor might head after it finishes with the Marianas has increased, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10 a.m., Soudelor was about 507 miles east-southeast of Saipan, tracking due west at 16 mph. Soudelor is forecast to start moving northwest later Saturday.

If it remains on its JTWC forecast track, Soudelor should pass 46 miles northeast of Saipan and 63 miles northeast of Tinian, packing sustained 104-mph winds and 127-mph gusts at its center.

Saipan, Tinian and the outlying northern Marianas islands remain in typhoon watch, according to the National Weather Service on Guam; expect an upgrade to a typhoon warning in the coming hours.

After it exits the Marianas, the question remains: Where will Soudelor go? Dynamic model guidance generally agrees that it may head toward Japan’s southwestern islands, but which ones?

Some computer models take Soudelor toward Okinawa and Amami-Oshima; other models forecast a flatter track, taking it closer to the Yaeyama islands and Taiwan. There’s no indication at this point that Soudelor might curve toward Japan’s main islands, according to JTWC.

In any case, arrival in those locales should likely be sometime late next week, Thursday, Friday or thereabouts. PST will keep an eye on it.


11:45 p.m. Friday, July 31, Guam time: Tropical Storm Soudelor’s forward speed has slowed and the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track takes it ever closer to Saipan.

At 10 p.m., Soudelor was about 670 miles east of Saipan, tracking due west at 9 mph. If it remains on its current forecast track, Soudelor is due to pass 110 miles northeast of Saipan at around 8 p.m. Sunday.

That’s 23 miles closer than PST’s last update. Soudelor should be packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at its center. A typhoon watch remains in effect for Saipan, Tinian and the outlying northern Mariana Islands, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Saipan appears as if it should be well within Soudelor’s forecast 40-mph wind bands as it passes, according to JTWC.

Long term, Soudelor is forecast to peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts late Monday evening, then start diminishing as it crosses the 20th parallel.

Though Soudelor still appears to be tracking in Okinawa’s general direction, it’s still too early to depict Souledor’s exact destination. It’s still a good six to seven days away and much can change over that time span. Still something for the back burner, for now.


7 p.m. Friday, July 31, Guam time: Tropical Storm Souledor has picked up forward speed, but the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes it a bit closer to Saipan than previously projected.

At 4 p.m., Souledor was 721 miles east of Saipan, tracking west at 15 mph. JTWC forecasts Souledor’s closest point of approach to Saipan to be 133 miles northeast at about 6 p.m. Sunday, about 15 miles closer than in PST’s last update.

A typhoon watch is now in effect for Saipan, Tinian and the outlying northern Marianas Islands, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Souledor should start tracking west-northwest early Saturday morning, passing through the northern Marianas islands – as Nangka did earlier this month – then head northwest in the general direction of Japan’s southwestern islands, Okinawa and Amami-Oshima, peaking at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at midafternoon Tuesday.

It’s still too early in Souledor’s life cycle to pinpoint an exact destination in the long term, but it’s definitely something folks on Okinawa can put on the back burner for the moment. PST will keep a close watch on Souledor.


1:30 p.m. Friday, July 31, Guam time: Soudelor’s forward speed has slowed to about 4 mph. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update continues to predict Soudelor bypassing Guam and the main Marianas islands but much later than the previous forecast, about mid-evening Sunday.

In the long term, Soudelor appears to remain on track to head toward Japan’s larger southwestern islands, Okinawa and Amami-Oshima, heading into next weekend. Still too early to tell precisely what Soudelor will do, and there is something of a spread among dynamic model guidance.

JTWC projects Soudelor to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at center at mid-morning Tuesday, still well southeast of Okinawa, then start diminishing as it heads further northwest.


1:30 a.m. Friday, July 31, Guam time: 13W wasted no time intensifying into a tropical storm just one day into its existence.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center depicts 13W to keep heading west for a day or so, then turn northwest, still on track to miss the Marianas main islands. JTWC projects 13W to pass about 150 miles north-northeast of Saipan at around 10 p.m. Sunday.

Tricare Still too early to say for sure, but the first two forecast tracks take 13W in the general direction of Okinawa by late next week as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon. PST will keep an eye on it.


7 p.m. Thursday, July 30, Guam time: Tropical Depression 13W spawned Thursday afternoon nearly 1,100 miles east of Guam and is currently moving west at about 16 mph.

The initial Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast shows it starting to track northwest early Saturday, well north of Guam and Saipan, and heading in Okinawa’s general direction.

No watches or warnings for the Marianas have been issued at this point, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight says it’s too soon at this point to say if 13W will threaten Okinawa. PST will keep an eye on it.


1:15 a.m. Thursday, July 30, Guam time: Just as July came in like a lion where tropical cyclones are concerned, it appears as if July will go out and August will come in in the same manner.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the disturbance that’s brewing about 360 miles northwest of Kwajalein Atoll. Formation of a tropical depression is possible within the next 24 hours.

Guam’s National Weather Service issued a statement saying that while the system is still a work in progress, dynamic model guidance indicates it should slowly develop as it moves west or west-northwest through Friday, then turn northwest and possibly become a tropical storm over the weekend. Too early to tell if it will be a threat to any land masses at the moment.

Should it become a numbered storm, it would be the 13th of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, not including 01C or Halola, which formed over the central Pacific three weeks ago and cruised past Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base last weekend. If it becomes a named storm, it would be called Soudelor, Micronesian for a legendary Pohn’pei chief.


5 p.m. Wednesday, July 29, Japan time: The Hawaii-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center is ever-vigilant in tracking tropical cyclones from the time they spawn to the time they peak to the time they diminish, be it over land or cool northern waters, neither of which tropical cyclones have much of an appetite for.

JTWC also provides its clientele, including military bases and other U.S. military assets throughout the Pacific, kind of a head’s up regarding areas of convection that could become tropical cyclones, be it within a matter of a few hours or several days.

At the moment, JTWC has its eye on an area of convection which at 3 p.m. Japan time was about 315 miles northwest of Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands. JTWC rates the area as “medium,” meaning the chances of it developing into an actual tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours as medium, about a 33- to 67-percent chance.

As time passes, the chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone might increase to the point where JTWC upgrades those chances to “high,” then issues a tropical cyclone formation alert, advising those same military bases and assets to be on the alert, that a storm is actually forming.
 

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