Typhoon 10W (Matmo), # 6 FINAL

Tropical Storm 10W.<br>Courtesy of NOAA
Tropical Storm 10W.

11:30 a.m. Tuesday, July 22, China time:Typhoon Matmo has continued tracking steadily northwest over the past couple of days, and model guidance agrees it should track over central Taiwan overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, making landfall 76 miles south of Taipei around 7 a.m. Wednesday. Matmo is next forecast to continue across the Formosa Strait and make secondary landfall over southeastern China around 6 p.m. Wednesday. Earlier forecasts had Matmo emerging back over water, the Yellow Sea (or West Sea) as a tropical depression; current forecast track has Matmo now dissipating northwest of Shanghai. If it remains on its forecast track, Matmo should pass no closer than 450 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at 9 p.m. Tuesday. Assuming no drastic changes, PST lets this one go for now.

6:15 p.m. Sunday, July 20, Japan time: Not much variation to Typhoon Matmo’s forecast track. Latest from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center places the track 385 miles west of Okinawa about 5 a.m. Wednesday, at bit earlier than previously forecast and still well out of reach of the island (for now).

Long-range forecast from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight calls for clouds and anywhere from 20- to 40-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms starting Tuesday and lasting into Thursday, with east and southeasterly winds between 19 and 22 mph. This could lighten or worsen depending on Matmo’s future movements.

At 6 p.m., Matmo was 560 miles east of Manila and 886 miles south of Kadena, moving north-northwest at just over 10 mph, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at its center.

If Matmo remains on its current forecast track, it’s expected to peak at 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts, Category 3-equivalent winds, as it rolls 16 miles south of Taipei at 11 p.m. China time Wednesday. Matmo is then forecast to cross the Formosa Strait and crash ashore some 400 miles south of Shanghai about 3 p.m. Thursday.

4:15 p.m. Saturday, July 19, China time: Destination: Taiwan appears to be the narrative for Tropical Storm Matmo, which has begun tracking northwest and headed on course expected to take it 104 miles south of Taipei around 2 p.m. local time Wednesday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track.

At 2 p.m. Saturday, Matmo remained just below typhoon strength and was forecast to strengthen into a Category 1-equivalent storm overnight Saturday.

JTWC projects Matmo to be packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts as it crashes ashore Wednesday, then continues across the Formosa Strait, splitting the difference between Hong Kong and Shanghai as it makes secondary landfall about 2 p.m. Thursday.

For now, Okinawa appears to be out of harm’s way, but it’s always prudent to bear in mind, typhoons can be unpredictable buggers at times. Stay vigilant. Above all, stay safe.

5:30 p.m. Friday, July 18, China time: Much uncertainty surrounds Tropical Storm Matmo. First and foremost, where it may be headed, always the proverbial $64,000 question. Forecast models are all over the lot, and officials at Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight say it may be 24 hours, perhaps longer, for things to come into better focus. Such things are typical for it being so early in the life of a storm, but apparently things are more uncertain than usual.

At 5 p.m. China time, Matmo was about 1,150 miles south-southeast of Kadena, moving northwest at a very slow 3 mph. The latest from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows Tropical Storm Matmo’s track veering even further west than earlier forecast – 380 miles southwest of Kadena at 8 a.m. Wednesday – and possibly hit northeastern Taiwan on Wednesday afternoon as a Category 3-eqiuvalent typhoon. But that could easily vary, weather flight officials said.

PST will keep a sharp lookout, as always.

6:15 a.m. Friday, July 18, Japan time: Still early in the life of a spawning tropical storm, with model guidance still all over the lot, but the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest indicates 10W, which mushroomed into a tropical storm overnight Thursday, could pass some 200 miles west of Okinawa early Wednesday morning. That's a variance of 100 miles east in a six-hour period. Again, nothing definitive at this point, it's way too early and the storm is still developing, but something to definitely keep eyes on, as PST will and always does.

11:30 p.m. Thursday, July 17, Japan time: Pacific Storm Tracker has its eyes on a fledgling tropical depression which spawned over the last couple of days west of Yap and northeast of Palau. Initial forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows an erratic track, taking it dead west, followed by a sharp curve northeast, then northwest on target to knife its way between Okinawa and Taiwan sometime Tuesday. It's way too early to be definitive, but PST will keep a sharp eyeball on it. If 10W becomes a named storm, it will be called Matmo, a Chamoru word native to Guam for heavy rain or rainy day. How apropos.


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