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Typhoon 07W (Dolphin), # 17 FINAL

Typhoon Dolphin is seen near Guam in this RGB satellite image taken Friday, May 15, 2015.<br>NOAA.gov
Typhoon Dolphin is seen near Guam in this RGB satellite image taken Friday, May 15, 2015.

Noon Saturday, May 16, Guam time: With the possible exception of Iwo Jima, Typhoon Dolphin should not be bothering any major land masses as it curves north and east over the next several days. GovGuam declared Condition of Readiness 4 at 9 a.m. and recovery efforts continue on the island. All watches and warnings have been canceled for the Marianas. Unless something changes drastically, Storm Tracker now takes leave of Dolphin.

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9:30 p.m. Friday, May 15, Guam time: Latest National Weather Service statement says winds have shifted for Guam and Rota, with Typhoon Dolphin moving north and west.

Typhoon-force winds and rain should end in a couple of hours; winds should diminish below 40 mph by sunrise Saturday. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 1 and a typhoon warning is still in effect in the Marianas.

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7:45 p.m. Friday, May 15, Guam time: Now, it’s moving northwest again. National Weather Service’s latest bulletin on Dolphin and its seeming zigzag walk now has it headed northwest, 40 miles north of Guam and 20 south of Rota as it chugs through the Rota Channel. Maximum sustained winds 110 mph.

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7 p.m. Friday, May 15, Guam time: It’s on, folks. Winds topping at 100 mph are happening, especially at the island’s north end. Joint Typhoon Warning Center is depicting Dolphin’s passage through the Rota Channel, about 15 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base right about 7 p.m. (right now).

Local news reports state Guam Power Authority line crews stood down at 5 p.m., so if your power is off, it will likely remain off all night. Water outages have occurred in suburban Mangilao and Dededo, but only one related to Dolphin. Facebook comments say power outages have occurred in Mangilao, Chalan Pago, Tumon, Tamuning, Agate and Yigo.

The island remains in Condition of Readiness 1. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

The National Weather Service on Guam said as of 5:57 Chamorro Standard Time, the strongest winds experienced were 97 mph at Andersen and 73 mph at A.B. Won Pat International Airport.

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6 p.m. Friday, May 15, Guam time: A bulletin from the National Weather Service on Guam states that Typhoon Dolphin’s track is now forecast to edge closer to Guam, with passage in about two hours.

The north part of Guam could see southern eyewall passage and 100-mph winds. The island remains in Condition of Readiness 1 and the Marianas remain under a typhoon warning.

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4 p.m. Friday, May 15, Guam time: Little change since last update. Dolphin remains on track to pass about 60 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base at around 6 p.m., according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast and about 20 north of Rota. Typhoon-force winds extend about 35 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds about 110 miles south. National Weather Service on Guam forecasts winds up to 85 mph at the island’s northern reaches. Northern Marianas remain under a typhoon warning and Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 1, Guam Homeland Security said in its Facebook page. U.S. bases on Guam remain closed except for emergency-essential personnel.

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Noon Friday, May 15, Guam time: Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track now takes Typhoon Dolphin about 60 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base at about 8 p.m. Friday and just north of Rota. National Weather Service on Guam says the island can expect 60- to 75-mph winds on the north part of the island and 40 to 60 down south Friday afternoon and evening, with winds diminishing below tropical-storm strength after midnight; winds could be worse if Dolphin tracks further south. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 1. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam, and a flash-flood watch is in effect for the northern Marianas as well.



11 p.m. Thursday, May 14, Guam time:The Joint Information Center on Guam reports Gov. Eddie Calvo will issue Condition of Readiness 1 at 5 a.m. Friday or thereabouts, indicating destructive winds of 58 mph or greater will be anticipated within 12 hours of the declaration.

The good news, if there is such a thing: Typhoon Dolphin has picked up forward speed and should through and gone from the northern Marianas rather rapidly Friday into Saturday.

Beyond that, sometime Sunday, it should briefly achieve super-typhoon status, which would make the third one of the season – and it’s not even JUNE yet! But the only land mass it appears to be threatening is Iwo Jima, sometime mid-afternoon Tuesday. PST will keep an eyeball on it.



8 p.m. Thursday, May 14, Guam time: With every passing track, the news gets a bit better for Guam but worse for Rota, where Typhoon Dolphin is forecast to rumble about 11 miles south at about 6 p.m. Friday and now 29 miles north of Andersen.

Little change in forecast wind values, 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at Dolphin’s center.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 2; expect an upgrade to COR 1 early Friday morning. Schools and government offices will be closed Friday. Emergency shelters have opened, according to Guam Homeland Security’s Facebook page.

Get your safe on, Guam!

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6 p.m. Thursday, May 14, Guam time: Guam has entered Condition of Readiness 2 in anticipation of the arrival of Typhoon Dolphin around 5 p.m. Friday just to the island’s north.

U.S. National Weather Service on Guam has issued a typhoon warning for Guam and Rota and a tropical storm warning and typhoon watch for Tinian and Saipan. Dolphin is forecast to pass 15 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base at 5 p.m. Friday, packing sustained 127-mph winds and 161-mph gusts at its center. Expect an upgrade to COR 1 early Friday morning.

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4 p.m. Wednesday, May 13, Guam time: The island of Guam entered Condition of Readiness 3 as of 4 p.m. Chamorro Standard time. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are now possible within 48 hours.

And it’s looking more and more as if Dolphin, which has been upgraded to a typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, may make a direct hit: 4 p.m. Friday right over Big Navy and Hagatna, packing sustained 115-mph winds with 143-mph gusts.

After that, Dolphin is forecast to curve north and east; whether it will hit or miss Japan is still open to question. PST will keep a sharp eye on it. Expect an upgrade to TCCOR 2 sometime mid-Thursday afternoon.

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10 a.m. Wednesday, May 13, Guam time: A typhoon watch has been issued for Guam and Rota by the National Weather Service on Guam. Tropical Storm Dolphin is forecast to pass 30 miles south of Guam’s capital of Hagatna at about 7 p.m. Friday, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center as it roars past. Where it heads after that is still open to question. PST will keep an eye on things.



9 p.m. Tuesday, May 12, Guam time: Tropical Storm Dolphin has begun an assertive turn to the west and appears headed for a Friday evening rendezvous with Guam. The question being, where it heads after that. No watches or warnings or conditions of readiness are set yet for Guam or the northern Marianas, but it never hurts to prepare early. Dolphin looks as if it will make an almost-direct hit on Guam around 4 p.m. Thursday, nine miles south of Big Navy and the island capital Hagatna around midnight Friday, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center. It appears headed northwest beyond that; whether it heads to Okinawa or Tokyo is still open to question. PST will keep an eyeball on it.



5:30 p.m. Sunday, May 10, Guam time: It’s pretty much a done deal that Tropical Storm Dolphin will head in Guam’s general direction. The question is when it might threaten the island and the rest of the northern Marianas.

Dolphin has turned northwest and was 1,125 miles east-southeast of Guam as of 4 p.m. Sunday local time, headed west-northwest at 10 mph. Computer models pretty much agree on Dolphin heading toward Guam, but disagree on track speed.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Dolphin tracking 104 miles south of the island capital of Hagatna, 113 miles south of Big Navy and 124 miles south of the “top of the rock,” Andersen Air Force Base, at about 4 p.m. Thursday.

A duty weather forecaster with the National Weather Service on Guam said the island is looking at a hit or close passage Thursday evening into Friday. But Dolphin is still a relatively young storm and is still gathering itself, so there may be some adjustments to timing and track, the forecaster said.

No watches or warnings are in effect for Guam (yet). The island remains in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 year-round.


7:30 p.m. Saturday, May 9, Guam time: 07W was upgraded to a tropical storm overnight Friday.

Still much uncertainty and a significant model spread regarding the storm’s trajectory, but the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes 07W within 93 miles of the island capital Hagatna, 105 miles south of Big Navy and 112 miles south of Andersen Air Force Base at 4 p.m. Wednesday.

It’s forecast to be packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at its center. No watches or warnings have been issued for Guam, which remains in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 year-round.

National Weather Service on Guam posits 07W at 1,310 miles east-southeast of Guam at 7 p.m. Tropical storm warnings, watches and a typhoon warning remain in effect for Kosrae and parts of Pohn’pei state.


 

9 p.m. Friday, May 8, Guam time: Tropical Depression 07W continues a slow northeasterly crawl, some 1,355 miles east-southeast of Guam as of 7 p.m. Chamorro Standard Time. Joint Typhoon Warning Center still projects 07W to curve northwest and head in Guam’s general direction, but it’s too soon to say how close it will come.

In the long term, 07W is projected to turn north, but further east of Okinawa than Typhoon Noul on Tuesday, said an official with Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Again, way too soon to say definitively, however.

In the meantime, a typhoon watch remains in effect for Pohn’pei and some of its surrounding islands and a tropical storm watch for others, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. A tropical storm warning was issued for Kosrae island. PST will continue to watch developments.

 


 

1:30 p.m. Friday, May 8, Guam time: A typhoon watch remains in effect for Pohn’pei, while a tropical storm watch is in effect for Pohn’pei state’s outer islands and Kosrae, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Tropical Depression 07W has begun turning northeast and its projected path as forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center still takes it northwest in Guam’s general direction. But much uncertainty remains over how close it will come to Guam; at 1 p.m. Friday, 07W was 1,355 miles east-southeast of Guam. The island remains in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Guam’s National Weather Service said in its latest public advisory that 07W might become a tropical storm later Friday.

 


4:45 p.m. Thursday, May 7, Guam time: Will it hit Guam or won’t it hit Guam? That’s the $64,000 question regarding the new tropical depression that formed overnight Wednesday south-southeast of Pohn’pei.

The National Weather Service on Guam issued a tropical storm watch for the Pohn’pei State island group, meaning winds between 34 and 73 mph are possible within 48 hours. At 1 p.m. Chamorro Standard Time, 07W sat 245 miles south-southeast of Pohn’pei, 235 miles west-southwest of Kosrae and a good 1,230 miles east-southeast of Guam.

Where 07W heads from there, it’s too early to tell. Computer models are spread, mainly over how quickly 07W develops and moves and in which direction. The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track shows 07W drifting southeast, then making a sharp turn northwest in the Northern Marianas’ general direction. It’s forecast to intensify into a Category 2-equivalent by midday Tuesday, still to Guam’s southeast. PST has its eye on it.

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9 p.m. Wednesday, May 6, Guam time: Whoo, traffic is picking up on the Pacific’s tropical cyclone expressway.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert  on that new disturbance that’s about 180 miles south-southeast of Pohn’pei in Chu’uk state.

The National Weather Service on Guam issued a statement that indicates the new storm will gradually develop, moving northeast at first, then shifting northwest, but it’s too early to tell. PST will keep an eye on this as well as Noul’s movements, too.

Two active storms at once. This would become the seventh numbered storm, including one super typhoon, of the northwest Pacific’s season – and it’s not even June yet – and if it becomes a named storm, it would be called Dolphin, after the Chinese white dolphin that lives in Hong Kong waters and is also a mascot of Hong Kong.
 

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