Quantcast

Tropical Storm 11W (Nangka), # 42 FINAL UPDATED

Typhoon Nangka is shown in this RGB satellite image taken July 15, 2015.<br>NOAA.gov
Typhoon Nangka is shown in this RGB satellite image taken July 15, 2015.

2:30 p.m. Friday, July 17, Japan time: Nangka has been downgraded to a tropical storm after making landfall over southeastern Shikoku early Friday morning, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.  Nangka has begun dying out. Once back over the Sea of Japan (East Sea), it should turn rapidly northeast and dissipate southeast of Hokkaido. Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch was lifted for Sasebo Naval Base at 9 a.m. and  Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at 1 p.m.. Unless something changes, this should be the final update on Nangka.


6 p.m. Thursday, July 16, Japan time: Nangka is rapidly losing its power as it tracks north toward projected landfall over southeastern Kyushu about 1 to 2 a.m. Friday. It barely remains a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, tracking at 10 mph and now forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass some 97 miles east of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni around 7 a.m.

Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2, still expecting maximum 35-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts as it rumbles by the air station. Sasebo Naval Base, some 252 miles west-southwest of Nangka at its closest point of approach about 3 a.m. Friday, should be safely out of Nangka’s 40-mph wind bands, but gusts as high as 51 mph are expected overnight.


2:30 p.m. Thursday, July 16, Japan time: Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni has entered Tropical Cyclone of Readiness Storm Watch, base public affairs said in a Facebook message.

Though destructive winds are no longer forecast, there’s still a possibility of danger should Nangka hang around long enough or due to unforecast changes in storm track and speed and intensity.

No time to be complacent. TCCOR SW will remain in effect until further notice, base PAO said.


12:30 p.m. Thursday, July 16, Japan time: Latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center update depicts Typhoon Nangka edging closer to Iwakuni and a bit sooner than expected, 64 miles east-northeast of the Marine Corps Air Station at about 6 a.m. Friday. Nangka continues to deteriorate as it moves north toward cooler sea temperatures and interaction with land as it approaches south-central Shikoku.

Landfall is forecast for just after 9 p.m. Thursday. Iwakuni can expect 23- to 35-mph sustained winds and isolated 52-mph gusts Thursday evening into Friday, as earlier reported by base public affairs. Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

To the southwest, Sasebo Naval Base remains in TCCOR Storm Watch; Nangka is due to pass 225 miles east-northeast of Sasebo at around 4 a.m. Friday. Fleet Activities Sasebo’s Facebook page posted forecasts winds of 23- to 29-mph with 40-mph gusts by Thursday afternoon into Friday, decreasing to 17- to 23-mph sustained and 35 mph-gusts by mid-morning, decreasing by afternoon.

Nangka remains on track to re-enter open water over the Sea of Japan (East Sea) around mid-day Friday, then curving sharply northeast near Misawa Air Base round mid-day Sunday as a tropical depression before dying over the northwest Pacific Ocean sometime mid-day Monday.


8:15 a.m. Thursday, July 16, Japan time: Not much change to previous update. Nangka remains on track to pass about 78 miles east-northeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at about 7 a.m. Friday, still packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mph gusts at its center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Nangka should start weakening as it makes its way toward early Friday-morning landfall over south-central Shikoku. Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 at the moment, base public affairs said. A determination to enter TCCOR 2 should be made before 3 p.m.

Iwakuni can expect gale-force winds by late Thursday. Strongest winds forecast for the base should be 23-35-mph sustained winds with isolated 52-mph gusts.

Nangka should then move back out over open water in the Sea of Japan (East Sea) by late afternoon as a strong tropical storm.


11:45 p.m. Wednesday, July 15, Japan time: An increasingly marginal environment is preventing Typhoon Nangka from intensifying as it continues its push north, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update. Peak winds are forecast to be 92-mph sustained and 115-mph gusts from now until it reaches landfall over south-central Shikoku.

Nangka is still on track to pass 81 miles east of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at about 9 a.m. Friday, but with 75-sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at its center, barely remaining a Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it roars past. Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, and while Friday portends to be blustery, the air station might be spared Nangka’s full fury.

Nangka should pass well east of Sasebo Naval Base, about 238 miles at around 6 a.m. Friday. Maximum 51-mph gusts Thursday evening into Friday are forecast for Sasebo. JTWC projects Nangka to burst back over open water into the Sea of Japan late Friday, rapidly weakening as it turns sharply northeast.


6:30 p.m. Wednesday, July 15, Japan time: Typhoon Nangka’s forecast track has shifted slightly west; Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update projects Nangka to pass 86 miles east of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at about 9 a.m. Friday, about 6 hours after making landfall over central Shikoku island.

Nangka should still be packing Category 1-equivalent typhoon winds, 92-mph sustained and 115-mph gusts at its center, so Iwakuni should feel some of the brunt. Dynamic model guidance has come into agreement regarding forecast track and speed, JTWC reports.

Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; be on alert for TCCOR changes. Should Iwakuni upgrade to TCCOR 2, Ironworks Fitness Center and Matthew C. Perry High School gym will serve emergency shelters, according to a release posted at MCAS Iwakuni’s official website.

Sasebo Naval Base, which remains in TCCOR Storm Watch, should be 234 miles west-southwest at Nangka’s closest point of approach about 5 a.m. Friday.



3:30 p.m. Wednesday, July 15, Japan time: Though Nangka is forecast to pass some 250 miles east-northeast of Sasebo Naval Base, the southwestern Japan base is not out of the woods wind-wise, according to Fleet Activities Sasebo’s Facebook page.

An announcement posted earlier Wednesday said Sasebo can expect 20- to 26-mph sustained winds with 35-mph gusts, sustained winds increasing to 29 to 35 in the evening. Thursday, expect those to increase to 35 to 40 mph sustained and gusts up to 51 mph overnight into Friday. Forecast for Friday calls for 32- to 37-mph sustained winds and 50-mph gusts, decreasing into afternoon.

Sasebo remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch for now.


Noon Wednesday, July 15, Japan time: The pattern of the last couple of days continues: Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes Typhoon Nangka even further east of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni and Sasebo Naval Base.

For the moment, Nangka is projected to pass 108 miles east-northeast of Iwakuni at about 8 a.m. Friday; Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch, and Nangka is projected to pass almost 250 miles east-northeast of Sasebo.

But as has been the case the past couple of days, there remains a continued spread and uncertainty among dynamic model guidance regarding where and when Nangka makes landfall over Shikoku. Things could continue to change.


6:15 a.m. Wednesday, July 15, Japan time: Uncertainty yet remains among the computer models over exactly where Typhoon Nangka will strike Japan, and the latest forecast track takes Nangka still further east of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

JTWC now projects Nangka to pass nearly 90 miles east-northeast of Iwakuni at around 10 a.m. Friday, after making landfall over south-central Shikoku about 3 a.m., packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mph gusts at its center. Still uncertain how it will affect Iwakuni, which remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; that could be upgraded sometime later this morning or this afternoon.

Sasebo Naval Base, which remains in TCCOR Storm watch, could be out of the woods entirely; Nangka is forecast to pass 235 miles east-northeast of Sasebo. JTWC for the moment then depicts Nangka passing over southwest Honshu into the Sea of Japan (East Sea), rapidly tracking northeast and dying out as a tropical depression southeast of Hokkaido.

There still remains a significant spread in the dynamic model guidance, and Nangka remains a good two days away, so much can change in the coming 48 hours.


11 p.m. Tuesday, July 14, Japan time: With every succeeding update the last day or so, Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track takes Typhoon Nangka further east of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni and Sasebo Naval Base.

It’s a fairly large storm in terms of diameter, but Nangka is now forecast to peak at 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at its center by midevening Wednesday, less wind values than previously projected. Though there remains a 173-mile spread among dynamic model solutions, computer guidance is coming into better agreement, JTWC reports; just a question of where the final destination lies.

For the moment, JTWC projects Nangka to rumble ashore over central Shikoku by midday Friday and pass 61 miles east-northeast of Iwakuni at about 4 p.m., still packing strong Category 1-equivalent 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it roars past and into the Sea of Japan (East Sea). It should then curve sharply northeast and die out over southeastern Hokkaido late Sunday.

Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect an upgrade sometime Wednesday morning. Nangka is forecast to pass 210 miles east-northeast of Sasebo, which remains just inside JTWC-forecast 40-mph wind bands and in TCCOR Storm Watch.


6 p.m. Tuesday, July 14, Japan time: As Nangka begins its 11th day of existence, it appears more and more as if peak intensification should be less than earlier forecast, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

Nangka’s forecast track takes it still further east of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni and Sasebo Naval Base, and while it will likely still be a strong Category 2-equivalent storm as it crashes ashore around midday Friday, there’s a nearly 350-mile spread among dynamic models as to where in Japan it will make landfall, JTWC reported.

For the moment, Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 and Sasebo in TCCOR Storm Watch. JTWC depicts Nangka tracking 40 miles east-northeast of Iwakuni at about 4 p.m. Friday, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center, less than earlier forecast. Nangka should also pass 193 miles east northeast of Sasebo.


1 p.m. Tuesday, July 14, Japan time: Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni has been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 in anticipation of Typhoon Nangka’s arrival later this week. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.


Noon Tuesday, July 14, Japan time: Not much change to Typhoon Nangka’s forecast track except a slight eastward shift, with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center calling for Nangka to rumble 15 miles east of Marine Corps Station Iwakuni late Friday afternoon, still a significant Category 2-equivalent typhoon as it hits Japan’s main southwestern islands.

Nangka is forecast to make landfall over southwestern Shikoku just before mid-morning Friday. Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; that could be upgraded later Tuesday or early Wednesday, depending on track speeds and direction.

Toward that end, there remains a significant spread among the forecast models as Nangka approaches and tracks over Japan’s main southwestern islands, plus an increase in vertical wind shear and deteriorating atmospheric conditions. So much could change in the coming hours and days.

MCAS Iwakuni’s Facebook page addresses the uncertainty, stating the base could begin experiencing isolated gale-force winds by Thursday, but that would depend on where Nangka makes landfall.

With the slight eastward track shift, Nangka is also depicted to pass 171 miles east-northeast of Sasebo Naval Base, which remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.


6:30 a.m. Tuesday, July 14, Japan time: Typhoon Nangka has begun tracking north-northwest overnight Monday and is still forecast to knife its way between Iwo Jima and Okinawa through the northwest Pacific basin toward possible landfall nearly directly over Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

At 6 a.m., Nangka was about 630 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and 350 miles west-southwest of Iwo Jima, heading north-northwest at about 9 p.m. and packing sustained 110-mph winds and 132-mph gusts at its center.

It’s forecast to peak Wednesday morning at 132-mph sustained and 161-mph gusts, quite a ways away from Okinawa but close enough to feel some winds and gusts later in the week.

It’s Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni that Nangka apparently has in its sights, JTWC stated – a near-direct hit at about noon Friday if it remains on JTWC’s forecast track. Landfall is forecast for about 3 a.m. Friday, still packing sustained 110-mph winds and 132-mph gusts at center. Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Nangka is projected to pass further east of Sasebo than earlier forecast, 160 miles east-northeast at about 8 a.m. Thursday. Sasebo remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

Dynamic model guidance still differs regarding Nangka’s definitive course and tracking speeds, but for the moment that’s how things appear. Be prepared for upgraded TCCORs, particularly, at Iwakuni, as early as Tuesday afternoon or evening, depending on intensity and track speeds.


11:40 p.m. Monday, July 13, Japan time: Nangka continues intensifying and tracking north toward Japan’s main southwestern islands and is forecast to remain a powerful Category 3-equivalent typhoon as it rams over Kyushu’s southeast coast early Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

At 9 p.m., Nangka was 365 miles southwest of Iwo Jima, tracking north at 10 mph, packing sustained 121-mph winds and 150-mph gusts. JTWC projects Nangka to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at mid-evening Wednesday.

Still a vast spread among dynamic model guidance, with one group taking Nangka toward eastern Shikoku and two other groups depicting a more northwesterly track toward eastern Kyushu.

JTWC projects Nangka to make landfall over southeast Kyushu at mid-evening Thursday still packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at its center as it slams ashore.

It’s then forecast to rumble 50 miles west-southwest of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at about 4 a.m. Friday; Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Sasebo Naval Base remains in TCCOR Storm Watch; Nangka is projected to pass 110 miles east-northeast of Sasebo.

Be alert for possible TCCOR changes in the coming hours and days.


9 p.m. Monday, July 13, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Sasebo has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch for Sasebo Naval Base and its properties. Although destructive winds are not forecast, there is still a possible danger due to the proximity of the storm and due to unforecast changes in storm track and/or strength. Personnel should follow standard operating procesure for TCCOR Storm Watch and stay alert for any changes to TCCOR status.


6:15 p.m. Monday, July 13, Japan time: Typhoon Nangka has begun tracking more quickly north and continues to intensify, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update. But while Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni appears to be Nangka’s prime target, dynamic model guidance remains divided on Nangka’s actual path.

Nangka, 683 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and 400 miles southwest of Iwo Jima as of 6 p.m., is headed north at about 10 mph, packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at its center. JTWC continues to project Nangka to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at about 3 p.m. Wednesday.

From there, JTWC forecasts Nangka to weaken slightly as it encounters cooler waters and increased vertical wind shear. But forecast models remain all over the lot; one group depicts a more easterly track, another has Nangka tracking toward the East China Sea; still another shows Nangka tracking between Kyushu and Shikoku in Japan’s main island group.

For the moment, JTWC projects Nangka to rumble 55 miles west-southwest of Iwakuni at about 1 p.m. Friday and 106 miles east-northeast of Sasebo Naval Base, still packing a mean wallop, 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at its center.

Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. At TCCOR 4, according to the base’s tropical cyclone awareness brief, personnel should ensure a sufficient number of sandbags and tie-down materials are on hand. A quick check of Sasebo’s command and Facebook pages shows no accelerated TCCOR at the moment.


3 p.m. Monday, July 13, Japan time: Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 9:30 a.m. local time. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 72 hours.

Noon Monday, July 13, Japan time: Nangka’s final destination remains uncertain, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update. What is certain is, it’s forecast to intensify as it moves north between Iwo Jima and Okinawa, topping out at 138-mph sustained and 167-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Wednesday.

From there, where? The long-term forecast track has wobbled some; for the moment, Nangka is projected to knife between Sasebo Naval Base, about 93 miles to its east at about 4 p.m. Friday, and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, 68 miles to its east at around 7 p.m. Friday.

As it makes landfall over southeastern Kyushu around mid-morning Friday, Nangka is still forecast to be packing a fairly good wallop, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts. Sasebo and Iwakuni remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All-Clear for the moment; that could change later in the week.


6:30 p.m. Sunday, July 12, Japan time: Nangka has barely moved in the last six hours, sitting quasi-stationary some 490 miles south-southwest of Iwo Jima. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center says it’s fairly agreed that Nangka will turn north and by Friday venture into Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni’s general direction.

But questions remain, JTWC says, among dynamic model guidance regarding how quickly Nangka makes the turn north and its forecast track speed. It could arrive earlier, it could arrive later; typhoons are generally unpredictable buggers to start with, and Nangka is a prime example.

For the moment, JTWC projects Nangka to knife between Okinawa and Iwo Jima, passing 277 miles west of Iwo at about 6 p.m. Tuesday, and 432 miles east-northeast of Kadena Air Base at about 11 a.m. Thursday.

Nangka is a fairly large storm, more than 10 degrees wide, with tropical storm-force winds extending 135 miles northwest from center and 180 miles southeast from center, according to Guam’s National Weather Service. So both locales could feel some increased breeze as Nangka roars by.

Regarding Iwakuni, Nangka is still at least five days away; the air station remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All-Clear for the moment. If Nangka remains on its JTWC forecast track, it’s due to come within 89 miles southeast of the air station at mid-afternoon Friday, still packing sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts at its center.

Still, we’re talking five days. Much can change over a span like that.


7:45 p.m. Saturday, July 11, Japan time: Nangka has deteriorated as it continues a wobbly westward track. It’s forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to begin turning north early Monday morning, intensifying some while tracking north and then northwest into Tuesday afternoon.

The question remains whether Nangka will track toward Kyushu or Japan’s outlying southwestern islands such as Amami Oshima or even Okinawa. Dynamic model guidance runs pretty much all over the lot, according to JTWC.

For the moment, Nangka is forecast to track 317 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base on Okinawa and 310 miles south-southeast of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Kyushu, packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at its center, at about 3 p.m. Wednesday.

Way too soon to say if those numbers will hold up; we’re talking five days out and a lot can change during that time. PST is keeping its eye on Nangka.


6:30 p.m. Friday, July 10, Japan time: The $64,000 question remains: Which way will Typhoon Nangka venture after it skirts west of Iwo Jima on Tuesday?

Dynamic model guidance is coming into better agreement, that Nangka could venture west toward Japan’s southwestern Amami or Ryukyu island groups (i.e. Okinawa), but differences remain among several models, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

For the moment, JTWC projects Nangka – which enjoyed a brief life as the fourth super typhoon of the season – to pass 270 miles west of Iwo Jima at 2 a.m. Tuesday, then curve west in the general direction of Amami Oshima and just northeast of Okinawa, about 385 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base at around 3 p.m. Wednesday.

But much uncertainty remains. Vigilance and preparation are key; keep an eye and ear on official sources. The rumour mill is spinning like a jungle telegraph at IBM speed. Any number of things can change over five days.


1 p.m. Friday, July 10, Japan time: The typhoon warning has been canceled for Agrihan, Pagan and the Alamagan islands according to Guam's National Weather Service, now that Super Typhoon Nangka has moved far enough west of the northern Marianas. Now, the next question being, where it heads from here.

At noon Friday, Nangka was about 460 miles south-southeast of Iwo Jima, tracking west at 10 mph according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It’s forecast to diminish somewhat, slow down and begin tracking north-northwest Saturday into Sunday, coming within 187 miles west of Iwo Jima at about 3 a.m. Tuesday, still packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts.

Where to after that? Dynamic model guidance continues to diverge from that point. JTWC points Nangka generally northwest heading into Wednesday, but whether it heads to Kyushu or Japan’s southwestern islands is anybody’s guess. PST will keep an eye on things.


:30 a.m. Friday, July 10, Japan time: The typhoon warning for Agrihan, Pagan and the Alamagan islands has been canceled, according to Guam’s Nationa’s Weather Service.

The question remains, where will Super Typhoon Nangka head in the coming days and weeks?

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Nangka to pass 175 miles southwest of Iwo Jima at about 2 a.m. Tuesday.

There still appears to be something of a spread among dynamic forecast models, but JTWC projects Nangka to track northwest, and re-intensify as it goes. Be it in the direction of Kyushu or Okinawa is still too early to say. PST will keep an eye on it.


11:45 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Japan time: At last, we have our fourth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific tropical cyclone season, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Nangka has intensified to 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at its center as it makes its way west of the Alamagan islands, which it pummeled most of Thursday. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Question marks remain over Nangka’s future. Computer models remain in disagreement; JTWC has Nangka passing 200 miles west of Iwo Jima at about 3 a.m. Tuesday Japan time; the question being, where it heads from there?

JTWC has Nangka curving northwest from that point; whether it heads toward Kyushu or even Japan’s southwestern islands remains open to question. And we’re still talking five days out. PST will keep an eye on things.


Midnight Thursday, July 9, Guam time: Tropical Storm warming for Saipan and Tinian has been canceled, according to Guam’s National Weather Service. Typhoon warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and the Alamagan islands.


6:45 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Guam time: Typhoon Nangka is currently passing over the Alamagan islands and is still forecast to become the fourth super typhoon of the season, 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts starting early Friday morning but not lasting for very long, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Arighan, while a tropical storm warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian, according to Guam’s National Weather Service.

In the long term, dynamic model guidance is coming into better agreement. Nangka is forecast to pass Iwo Jima about 167 miles west, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts, at around 3 p.m. Tuesday.

Two models depict Nangka curving northeast, while most others show it continuing north-northwest in the general direction of Shikoku in Japan’s main islands, but the consensus is Nangka will continue to degrade as it moves north.


4 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Guam time: The typhoon watch for Saipan and Tinian has been canceled, but a tropical storm warning remains in effect for both locales. Typhoon Nangka is currently passing over the Alamagan islands; a typhoon warning remains in effect for those islands, Pagan and Agrihan.


2:45 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Guam time: Nangka is mere hours away from becoming the fourth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific’s season. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update shows Nangka peaking at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts late Thursday evening and remaining a super typhoon for about a day.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and the Alamagan islands in the northern Marianas, Guam’s National Weather Service said. A typhoon watch and tropical storm warning remain in effect for Saipan and Tinian; Nangka has already made its closest point of approach to Saipan and Tinian, but it’s still close enough to produce sea swells as high as 20 feet in far northern Saipan waters.

As it crosses the 20th Parallel, Nangka should begin to weaken, diminishing to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts as it comes 120 miles southwest of Iwo Jima at about 9 a.m. Tuesday. Dynamic model guidance is all over the place regarding Nangka’s forecast track from that point; some models have it tracking northwest, others show varying degrees of curving northeast.


8:15 a.m. Thursday, July 9, Guam time: Every chance that Nangka might become the fourth super typhoon of the season after all. Nangka remains on a west-northwest track taking it about 140 miles northeast of Saipan about mid-morning Thursday, and could peak at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts by Thursday afternoon, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

Saipan and Tinian remain under typhoon watch and tropical storm warning, according to Guam’s National Weather Service. The northern Marianas islands of Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan remain under typhoon warning.

Where Nangka heads in the long term is open to question, according to JTWC. Some forecast models show Nangka continuing to track northwest, while others have it curving northeast. For the moment, JTWC has Nangka tracking 180 miles south-southwest of Iwo Jima early Tuesday morning Japan time, at which point it’s forecast to be packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center.


11:15 p.m. Wednesday, July 8, Guam time: Nangka’s forecast track has edged slightly more northwest; Joint Typhoon Warning Center now projects Nangka to pass 136 miles northeast of Saipan early Thursday afternoon. And JTWC sees Nangka diminishing to 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it curve north, 200 miles south of Iwo Jima at about midnight Monday Japan time.

Saipan and Tinian remain under typhoon watch and tropical storm warning, according to Guam’s National Weather Service. A typhoon warning remains in effect for the northern Marianas islands of Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan. Guam and Rota remain safely out of harm’s way for the moment.


9:30 p.m. Wednesday, July 8, Guam time: The good news, if there is such a thing regarding tropical cyclones: It appears now as if Nangka will just miss out on becoming the fourth super typhoon of the season. It’s now forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts starting early Thursday morning. Still a powerful storm, to be certain.

Now, the bad news: Nangka’s track has shifted west-northwest and is now projected to pass 122 miles northeast of Saipan about midday Thursday. Close enough that Guam’s National Weather Service has issued a tropical storm warning for Saipan and Tinian, which both also remain under typhoon watch. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and the Alamagan islands in the northern Marianas.

The good news for Iwo Jima: As Nangka passes north of the 20th parallel, it’s forecast to start diminishing, and should be packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it comes within 200 miles south of the island about 3 p.m. Monday.


4 p.m. Wednesday, July 8, Guam time:Though Nangka is forecast to track north of the main Marianas island group, any small shift south by its forecast track could cause damaging winds for Saipan and Tinian; hence, a typhoon watch is in place for both islands, according to Guam’s National Weather Service. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and the Alamagan islands in the northern Marianas.


8:45 a.m. Wednesday, July 8, Japan time: Though not as strong as previously forecast, Nangka is still forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to peak as a category 5-equivalent super typhoon, the fourth of the season, early Thursday morning, topping off at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts, lasting for about a day.

A typhoon watch remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the northern Marianas, according to Guam’s National Weather Service.

Nangka is forecast to begin curving north Sunday, coming within 181 miles south of Iwo Jima early Monday morning.


11:15 p.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: Forecast wind values for Typhoon Nangka continue to increase with every Joint Typhoon Warning Center update. Potentially the fourth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific season, it’s forecast to peak at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts for about a day, early Thursday morning into Friday morning.

A typhoon watch remains in effect for the sparsely-populated northern Marianas islands of Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan, according to Guam’s National Weather Service. Though the main Marianas Islands of Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam appear to be well out of Nangka’s range – it’s forecast to pass 210 miles northeast of Saipan at 11 a.m. Thursday – the slightest southern drift in the forecast track could put Saipan in the way of some high seas later this week.

JTWC calls for Nangka to curve northeast and weaken as it passes the 19th parallel, and should be 138 miles south of Iwo Jima late Sunday evening, packing sustained 121-mph winds and 150-mph gusts at its center.


5:45 p.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: Little change except in forecast intensity. Joint Typhoon Warning Center now projects Nangka to peak at 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Wednesday and remain a super typhoon – the fourth so far this season – for about two days as it approaches Iwo Jima.

Nangka is still forecast to make a northerly turn around mid-afternoon Saturday, on a course that would appear to take it straight at or just east of the island. A typhoon watch remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the northern Marianas islands.


1 p.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: While Chan-hom apparently might not become the fourth super typhoon of the season, Typhoon Nangka just might, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

Some 700 miles east of Guam as of noon Japan time, Nangka is headed west-northwest at 13 mph. A typhoon watch is in effect for three sparsely populated Northern Marianas islands, Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

As Nangka moves west-northwest, it’s forecast to peak at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at mid-morning Thursday Japan time and maintain that intensity for at least a day. That would make the fourth Category 5-equivalent super typhoon of what’s already been a busy season.

By the weekend, Nangka is forecast to turn north, on an apparent course to pass just east of Iwo Jima sometime Monday. Too early to say how close, or whether Nangka will continue north toward the Kanto Plain or turn northeast and remain over open water.


10 a.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: Typhoon Nangka is intensifying and its Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track shows it curving toward Iwo Jima by week’s end. Nangka should reach peak intensity of 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts by mid-morning Thursday, but should start weakening as it curves north toward the end of the week. JTWC projects Nangka to be 153 miles south-southeast of Iwo Jima at about 3 a.m. Sunday, but long-range uncertainty remains among the forecast models.


5:30 p.m. Monday, July 6, Japan time: Nangka has intensified into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it makes its way west-northwest, north of the Micronesian island chain. At 3 p.m. Monday, Nangka was packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mph gusts. It should continue intensifying as it moves northwest.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Nangka to come within 207 miles south of Iwo Jima at mid-afternoon Saturday, packing sustained 138-mph winds and 167-mph gusts at its center.

Much too soon to say at this point whether Iwo, Japan’s main islands or Okinawa might feel Nangka’s effects. The Marianas should be safely out of the way; closest point of approach to Andersen Air Force Base on Guam should be 330 miles northeast at about 9 a.m. Wednesday.


8 p.m. Sunday, July 5, Guam time: PST hasn’t forgotten about Tropical Storm Nangka; it’s more than just a few days away from any significant land masses.

Right now, Nangka is traveling due west, exiting the Marshall Islands and entering Micronesia, about 115 miles east of Enewetak Atoll as of 3 p.m.

It’s packing sustained 58-mph winds and 75-mph gusts, and is forecast to arc west northwest, coming within 238 miles south-southeast of Iwo Jima at about 3 p.m. Friday, Japan time, packing 120-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at its center.

Too soon to say whether it will threaten Japan, Okinawa or other land masses; it’s simply too far east and Nangka is just two days old. Much could change in the coming days.


1 p.m. Saturday, July 4, Guam time: Though still in its infancy, Nangka wasted little time intensifying into a tropical storm, and has begun a steady march west-northwest through the Marshall Islands toward Micronesia, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track. For the moment, the Marianas Islands appear safe; Nangka is projected to pass 265 miles northeast of Saipan, at which point it’s forecast to be packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at its center as it moves in the general direction of Iwo Jima. PST will keep an eye on this.


1:15 a.m. Saturday, July 4, Guam time: Tropical Depression 11W didn’t take very long to take shape. It’s tracking west-northwest at 6 mph about 275 east of Kwajalein atoll. Unlike the other two active tropical cyclones, this one doesn’t appear at the moment to be a threat to any major land masses. 11W is forecast to intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon sometime Tuesday evening and head in the general direction of Iwo Jima. If it does become a named storm, it will be called Nangka, Malaysian for jackfruit.


4 p.m. Friday, July 3, Guam time: Yet another tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, this time on a disturbance in the Marshall Islands, the same area where current Tropical Storm Chan-hom developed earlier this week. PST will keep an eye on this one as well as the other two.

0

comments Join the conversation and share your voice!  

from around the web