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Tropical Storm 11W (Halong), # 47 FINAL

10 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 10, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch has been issued for Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued its final warning on Tropical Storm Halong. Evacuation orders for the Iwakuni area off base have been lifted as of 6 p.m. Unless something changes, PST checks out on Halong.


11 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 9, Japan time: Halong has been downgraded to a tropical storm, is still projected to pass 75 miles south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at 3 a.m. Sunday. MCAS Iwakuni's Facebook page advises folks there to expect 29-mph sustained winds, 40-mph gusts and isolated gusts up to 46 mph. MCAS Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.


6 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 9, Japan time: IronWorks Gym began at 2 p.m. serving as a shelter for folks on Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in case of flooding or other emergencies caused by approaching Typhoon Halong, the base announced on its Facebook page.

Folks should bring their own essential supplies, including water, food, baby items, comfort items and other things they may need. For information, especially if you have pets, phone DSN 253-6578 or from off base or cell phone 082-779-6578.

MCAS Iwakuni remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Halong is forecast to track 75 miles south-southeast of MCAS Iwakuni at 3 a.m. Sunday. As much as 7 inches of rain expected. Forecast calls for sustained 35-mph winds with 46-mph gusts and isolated gusts between 58 and 63 mph from now through Sunday morning.


6:15 p.m. Friday, Aug. 8, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have reverted to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 4:45 p.m. Friday, Kadena Air Base announced on its official Facebook page. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni remains in TCCOR 3.
 
 With Typhoon Halong approaching, MCAS Iwakuni has on its Facebook page advised residents on base to be careful of flooding in low-lying areas, much the same as occurred earlier in the week with the torrential rain that closed quite a few roads on the base, much of which lies below sea level.
 
 For folks living in the Kawanishi, Shin-Minato, Tateishi and Tada communities in the Iwakuni area, the city has ordered residents to evacuate their homes and take shelter in the following designated locations:
 

  •  Kawanishi: Central Public Hall (Chuo Komikan) or Iwakuni High School.
  •  Shin-Minato: Community Hall (Shoko Kyoyo Kaikan).
  •  Tateishi: Public Health Center (Hoken Center) or Community Hall (Muronoki-higashi Kyoyo Kaikan)
  •  Tada, near the Misho Bridge: Public Hall (Sekido Fujikawa Kominkan).

  As much as 7 inches of rain are forecast over the weekend as Halong passes southeast of Iwakuni.
 


2 p.m. Friday, Aug. 8, Japan time: Some heavy gusts and rain squalls are making Typhoon Halong's exit from the Okinawa area. Closest point of approach was 225 miles east-northeast of Kadena Air Base at 2:30 a.m. Maximum winds were 30-mph sustained and 51-mph gusts for Okinawa and 28-mph sustained and 39-mph gusts for Kadena at 2:40 a.m. Two to 4 inches of rain was expected for the island.

Latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center update has Halong's forecast track taking it 82 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, a bit of a break for a base that's been inundated by rain this week. Wind values have not changed for Iwakuni.

U.S. bases on Okinawa in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch; Iwakuni remains in TCCOR 3.


8:30 a.m. Friday, Aug. 8, Japan time: It's gotten more gusty and there have been a few heavy rain bands, but Okinawa is past the closest point of approach where Typhoon Halong is concerned. That occurred at 2:30 a.m. Friday, some 225 miles east of Kadena Air Base. The island can still expect maximum 35-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at about 9 a.m., but that's about it.

Halong continues tracking in a northerly direction and remains on a forecast track to pass 63 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at 4 a.m. Sunday. A wet, windy weekend in store. Wind values for Iwakuni remain the same. PST will keep an eye on things.


6 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 7, Japan time: We’re almost to Halong’s closest approach point where Okinawa is concerned. There’s been a very slight adjustment in the forecast track, just a few miles west, regarding Okinawa and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni.

At 3 p.m., Halong was some 590 miles south of Iwakuni and 240 miles east of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, tracking north at 9 mph over the previous six hours and packing sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts, a bit of a drop in intensity.

Halong is forecast to come as close as 230 miles east of Okinawa at 4 a.m. Friday and 52 miles southeast of Iwakuni at 2 a.m. Sunday. Maximum forecast winds for Okinawa remain 35-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts and 29-mph sustained and 46-mph gusts for Kadena, only now at 4 a.m. Friday.

Halong should be downgraded to a tropical storm soon after making landfall over Shikoku sometime late Saturday evening.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Iwakuni remains in TCCOR 3.


4 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 7, Japan time: Although destructive winds of 58-mph or greater are not forecast for Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, the base has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness III, meaning such winds are possible within 48 hours. Halong is forecast to pass 58 miles southeast of Iwakuni at 6 a.m. Sunday, with 6 to 7 inches of rain – on top of all the rain that’s fallen this week – and sustained 29-mph winds, 46-mph gusts and 63-mph isolated gusts expected from Saturday evening to Sunday morning.


3 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 7, Japan time: Folks transferring into or out of the Pacific via the Patriot Express face a two-day delay this weekend thanks to Typhoon Halong, an Air Force spokewoman at Kadena Air Base told Stripes by phone Thursday.

The Patriot Express flies from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport first to Yokota Air Base, then Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in Japan, finally to Kadena and back again, the spokeswoman said. The flight won’t leave Sea-Tac until Saturday, putting it at Yokota sometime Sunday. Halong is forecast to track 58 miles southeast of Iwakuni at 3 a.m. Sunday, though that timetable could be pushed back if Halong continues to slow. That, in turn, might cause further delays, the spokeswoman said.

The new departure time for the Patriot Express is 9:05 a.m. Monday, according to a statement released by Marine Corps Base Camp Butler public affairs. Passengers with reservations must show by 4:30 a.m. Monday. Passengers with onward travel must contact their carrier to make connection arrangements.

Keep tuned to AFN Okinawa Wave 89 or visit their Facebook page for updates. For information, call the Air Mobility Command Passenger Terminal at Kadena at DSN 634-5806 or visit Kadena Air Base’s Facebook page. Passengers who need one should get a notification of delay letter from the AMC Terminal to assist with onward travel and travel concerns after reporting to their next assignment.


Noon Thursday, Aug. 7, Japan time: Just a minor change to Typhoon Halong's timing. Forward speed has slowed a bit, and it's now forecast to pass 232 miles east of Okinawa at around 3 a.m. Friday and 58 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at 3 a.m. Sunday, a bit later than the last forecast.


9 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 7, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Little change to the wind values; 30-mph crosswinds at Kadena are forecast to begin at noon Thursday and end at 11 p.m. Friday. Maximum 35-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts for Okinawa and 30-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts for Kadena Air Base at about 2 a.m. Friday.

No accelerated TCCOR for Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, but the already saturated base can expect more rain and wind on top of what's already fallen over the past few days, according to the base's Facebook page. Halong is forecast to track 69 miles south of Iwakuni at 5 a.m. Sunday. Expect maximum sustained 29-mph winds, gusts up to 40 mph and isolated gusts up to 63 mph. Six to 7 inches of rain are also expected from Friday through Sunday.


11 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 6, Japan time: The only thing certain about typhoons is uncertainty. They can be unpredictable buggers, kind of like forecasting weather in general, which at times can seem like herding kittens.
 
 Well, a slight, unexpected hiccough in Typhoon Halong's track, sending it straight northeast over the last six hours, may cause something of a delay in the storm's passage past Okinawa and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni.
 
 At 9 p.m., Halong was some 290 miles southeast of Okinawa, tracking northeast at 8 mph. If it remains on its current Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track, Halong should now pass about 230 miles east of Kadena Air Base at midnight Thursday, six hours later than previously forecast. Passage by Iwakuni should occur at 3 a.m. Sunday, around 68 miles to its southeast.
 
 Little change to wind values for both locales. Once Halong charges past Iwakuni, it should deteriorate rapidly, making its way back over water, the Sea of Japan (East Sea) and take on non-tropical characteristics as it barrels northeast.
 


7 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 6, Japan time: If not for bad weather luck, Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni and surrounding area would have no luck at all, given the copious amounts of rain that have inundated the area this week. Whole roads on the low-lying base, parts of which are below sea level, were closed for a time. In the surrounding town and mountain areas, flooding and landslides were reported and folk in some areas were subject to mandatory evacuations.

The news doesn't get any better for Iwakuni come the weekend, when Typhoon Halong comes (close to) calling, about 72 miles southeast of the base at midnight Saturday. Sustained 23-mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph, some isolated gusts up to 63 mph, are in the cards from Saturday morning until early Sunday afternoon, according to MCAS Iwakuni's Facebook page. Various weather Web site forecasts call for 2 to 4 inches of rain, perhaps more.

Little change to wind values where Okinawa is concerned. Closest point of approach timetable has accelerated; Halong is forecast to roar 210 miles east of Kadena Air Base at 6 p.m. Thursday, one hour earlier than previously forecast.

Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight's latest forecast calls for between 4 to 6 inches of rain, starting Wednesday evening.


1 p.m. Wednesday, July 6, Japan time: Latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes Typhoon Halong about 210 miles east of Okinawa at 7 p.m. Thursday. Little change to the wind values for Okinawa; maximum sustained 35-mph winds and 58-mph gusts forecast for Okinawa and 30-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts for Kadena at 7 p.m. Four to 6 inches of rain forecast.

As for Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, JTWC projects Halong to pass 69 miles southeast at 1 a.m. Sunday. The base can expect sustained 23-mph winds and 40-mph gusts, some isolated gusts as high as 63 mph, from Saturday morning until early Sunday afternoon.

Still much uncertainty as to Halong's definitive forecast path. PST will keep an eye on things.


7 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 6, Japan time: Typhoon Halong continues to diminish strength-wise as it moves north-northeast. Okinawa not expected to experience 40-mph sustained winds based on the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track and Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight's wind forecast timeline.

Halong is forecast to pass some 190 miles east of Kadena at around 7 p.m. Thursday, then continue moving north-northeast and passing about 65 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at about 10 p.m. Saturday.

If Halong remains on its current forecast track, Okinawa can expect 30-mph crosswinds from 8 a.m. Thursday to 7 p.m. Friday. Maximum winds for Okinawa are forecast to be 35-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts and for Kadena 30-mph sustained and 52-mph gusts at 7 p.m. Thursday. Rain forecast to begin at 11 p.m. Wednesday, 4 to 6 inches expected.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, MCAS Iwakuni in TCCOR All Clear.
 


8 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 5, Japan time: A slight westward change in Typhoon Halong's forecast track over the last few hours, now takes it 190 miles east of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at 2 a.m. Friday, projected to remain a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, and a tad closer to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, 65 miles southeast at 9 a.m. Sunday as a significant tropical storm.

Here's the latest wind forecast timeline for Okinawa, which is again forecast to get 40-mph sustained winds for a brief period on Thursday into Friday:

  • Onset of 30-mph crosswinds at Kadena, 7 a.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds on Okinawa, 4 p.m. Thursday.
  • Maximum winds, 40-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts on Okinawa, 35-mph sustained and 52-mph gusts at Kadena, 10 p.m. Thursday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 2 a.m. Friday.
  • Crosswinds diminishing below 30 mph for Kadena, 8 p.m. Friday.
  • Still some significant disagreement among the dynamic models as to Halong's precise movement as it approaches Shikoku in Japan's main island group. PST will keep an eye on it.

12:30 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 5, Japan time: Typhoon Halong is now on pace to track a bit further east of Okinawa, and later than previously forecast. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Halong to rumble about 200 miles east of Kadena Air Base at about 4 a.m. Friday. From there, it's forecast to pass 87 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni around 7 a.m. Sunday.

If Halong remains on its forecast track, sustained 40-mph winds or greater are no longer projected for Okinawa. Here's the updated wind timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 30-mph crosswinds at Kadena, 7 a.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds on Okinawa, no longer forecast to occur.
  •  Maximum winds, 35-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts for Okinawa, 35-mph sustained, 52-mph gusts on Kadena, 10 p.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds on Okinawa, not forecast to occur.
  • Winds diminishing below 30 mph, 8 p.m. Friday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Iwakuni remains in TCCOR All Clear.


10:30 a.m. Tuesday, Japan time: Typhoon Halong's forward speed has slowed some, which may mean the strongest winds Okinawa would get would come Thursday evening, a bit later than previous forecast. The latest forecast track also shows Halong bending south of Iwakuni Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

At 3 a.m. Japan time, Halong was about 590 miles south-southeast of Okinawa, crawling north-northwest at about 8 mph. If it remains on Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track, Halong is due to pass 180 miles east of Okinawa at 10 p.m. Thursday, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 110-mph gusts at its center.

Damaging sustained 58-mph winds or greater are still not forecast to occur. Here's the updated wind forecast timeline:

  • Onset of 30-mph crosswinds at Kadena Air Base, 7 a.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 40moh sustained winds on Okinawa, 6 p.m. Thursday.
  • Maximum 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts on Okinawa, 35-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at Kadena, 8 p.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds on Okinawa, not forecast to occur.
  • Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 2 a.m. Friday.
  •  Winds diminishing below 30 mph, 8 p.m. Friday.

JTWC's forecast track shows Halong bending northeast and passing 83 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at about 10 p.m. Saturday as a strong tropical storm, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at its center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; Iwakuni remains in TCCOR All Clear.


7:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 4, Japan time: A weekend pass by Typhoon Halong in the general vicinity of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni may be in the cards, according to the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track.

At 3 p.m. Monday, Halong was 676 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, crawling slowly northwest at 4½ mph but also gradually diminishing in strength. From a super typhoon this morning, Halong has experienced a drop-off of 35 mph in sustained winds and 40 mph in maximum gusts. Halong was packing sustained 121-mph winds and 155-mph gusts at 3 p.m.

Halong is still forecast to rumble well east of Okinawa, 176 miles east of Kadena at about 6 p.m. Thursday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center. It means Okinawa could be spared Halong's full fury, but Thursday and Friday are still forecast to be wet, windy days.

Latest wind forecast timeline for Kadena and Okinawa:

  • Onset of 30-mph crosswinds at Kadena, 4 a.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds on Okinawa, 1 p.m. Thursday.
  • Maximum winds for Okinawa, 40-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts at 4 p.m. Thursday.
  • Maximum winds for Kadena, 35-mph sustained and 52-mph gusts at 4 p.m. Thursday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 8 p.m. Thursday.
  • Winds diminishing below 30 mph, 6 p.m. Friday.

As for Iwakuni, it's still too soon to say and there remains uncertainty in the long-term forecast guidance, but JTWC's current track positions Halong 138 miles south at 3 p.m. Saturday. Sasebo Naval Base appears to be out of harm's way, 147 miles northwest of Halong at 3 p.m. Saturday and shielded by Kyushu's mountains and rugged terrain.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Iwakuni and Sasebo are in TCCOR All Clear.


Noon Monday, Aug, 4, Japan time:Halong has been downgraded from super typhoon to typhoon. It’s continuing its curve north, about 700 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at its center. Latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track shows Halong passing some 175 miles east of Okinawa at 4 p.m. Thursday. For now, destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are not forecast to occur. But there’s still some uncertainty in the long-range forecast; the track could change and the wind forecast could also.


8:30 a.m. Monday, Aug. 4, Japan time: A bit better news for Okinawa. Super Typhoon Halong's latest forecast track now takes it 152 miles east of Kadena Air Base at about 3 p.m. Thursday. Forecast wind timeline for Okinawa remains pretty much the same, onset of 40-mph sustained winds starting at 7 a.m. Thursday and tapering off at 8 p.m. Maximum 40-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts for Okinawa on tap at noon Thursday, 35-mph sustained and 52-mph gusts for Kadena also at noon. Rain starting at 8 p.m. Wednesday, 4 to 6 inches expected. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. PST will keep an eye on this as Halong rolls north and whether it might affect Sasebo Naval Base and/or Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in the coming days.


11:30 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 3, Japan time: Super Typhoon Halong has resumed a more westward track, which means it should pass a bit closer to Okinawa early Thursday evening if it remains on its present course, then turn north-northwest as projected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 9 p.m. Sunday, Halong was about 790 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, tracking westward at 8 mph and still packing Category 4-equivalent winds, 150-mph sustained and 184-mph gusts, weakening slightly, but still a big beast, with a diameter 10 degrees across in all directions and an 18-mile-wide eye.

But while dynamic model guidance agrees with a curve north-northwest, there's some uncertainty beyond the 72- , 96- and 120-hour marks exactly what Halong may do and where it may go. In the long term, there's a 132-mile spread among the various models at the 72-hour mark and as much as 230 miles at the 120-hour mark.

What that means is, Halong could track sharply northeast, as some models are suggesting, or it could head closer to Okinawa than previously forecast. Or various places inbetween. It's just too soon in terms of time and too far away in terms of distance to definitively say.

To paraphrase Will Rogers, "it's not what you don't know that hurts you, but what you do know that just ain't so." Starting now, it's imperative that folks pay closer attention to official weather sources, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's home page, Kadena Air Base's Shogunweather.com, commanders access channels and AFN Okinawa to get the straight scoop. Avoid the rumor mill. Avoid the "Well, I heard … " crowd.

And begin preparing for the worse, while hoping for the best. Begin a general cleanup around office and home. Start planning those visits to the commissary, the PX, the ATM and the gasoline stand, just in case Halong starts tracking more closely to Okinawa.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Forecast wind timeline coming Monday morning.

_______________________________________________________________

7:45 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 3, Japan time: Halong remains in peak form, some 815 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. It’s still a super typhoon, packing Category 5-equivalent sustained 161-mph winds and 196-mph gusts at its center, the diameter spans 10 degrees in all directions, and it’s starting to round the bend of a steering ridge for its north-northwest run toward Okinawa.

If Halong remains on its Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track, it should pass 122 miles east of Kadena at 5 p.m. Thursday, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts. Equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane.

What does this mean for Okinawa? According to Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s latest wind forecast timeline, destructive 58-mph sustained winds are not expected to occur. Strongest wind projections for Okinawa remain 46-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts at noon Thursday. At Kadena, maximum winds expected are 40-mph sustained and 52-mph gusts. Rainfall is now forecast to start at 8 p.m. Wednesday, with 4 to 6 inches expected.

Here’s the latest wind forecast timeline:

  • Onset of 30-mph crosswinds at Kadena, 3 a.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, 7 a.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds, not forecast to occur.
  • Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 8 p.m. Thursday.
  • Winds diminishing below 30 mph, noon Friday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.


3:30 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 3, Japan time: Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight has issued its first wind timeline for Super Typhoon Halong. Though vast in diameter and fiercely strong at the moment, Halong is forecast to slightly diminish in strength as it tracks almost directly north, passing about 130 miles east of Kadena at 2 p.m. Thursday.

 If it remains on track, damaging 58-mph sustained winds are not forecast to occur. Maximum winds for Okinawa are forecast to be 46-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts and 40-mph sustained and 52-mph gusts on Kadena at noon Thursday. Rainfall is forecast to begin about 1 p.m. Wednesday; some 6 to 8 inches of rain are expected.

 Forecast wind timeline follows:

  • Onset of 30-mph crosswinds, 4 a.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, 7 a.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds, not forecast to occur.
  • Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 7 p.m. Thursday.
  • Winds diminishing below 30 mph, 3 p.m. Friday.

  U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.


Noon Sunday, Aug. 3, Japan time: Things are coming into somewhat better focus regarding what kind of winds Okinawa can expect come Thursday, when Super Typhoon Halong is forecast to make its closest point of approach.

According to Kadena Air Base's Shogunweather.com Web page, winds should start picking up significantly on Wednesday, 25-mph sustained and 30- to 32-mph gusts in the morning, increasing to 35-mph sustained and 45- to 49-mph gusts in the evening. Thursday, look for 48-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts throughout the day.

At 9 a.m. Sunday, Halong was 875 miles south-southeast of Kadena, still moving west at 8 mph. If Halong remains on its forecast track, it's due to pass 130 miles east of Okinawa at about 2 p.m. Thursday. It's still a long way off and much uncertainty remains in the long term, so things could still change.


11:15 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 2, Japan time: Confirmed a few minutes ago: Halong has been upgraded to the third super typhoon of the northwest Pacific season, and is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to peak at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at mid-morning Sunday.

At 9 p.m. Saturday, Halong was about 920 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving west at 8 mph but showing slight signs of starting to curve northwest.

If there's any silver lining at all, it's the latest JTWC forecast track has varied by about 60 miles east in the last six hours with regard to Okinawa. Halong is now projected to pass 135 miles east of Kadena at about 10 a.m. Thursday, still packing a powerful right hook, 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at its center.

Still way too early to say definitively where Halong will eventually track and what this means for Okinawa. PST will continue its vigil.


5:45 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 2, Japan time: Halong continues its slow crawl west through the warm waters of the northwest Pacific basin, and is now forecast to peak as the third super typhoon of the northwest Pacific season early Sunday morning: 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts around 3 a.m. Sunday. At 3 p.m. Saturday, Halong was about 950 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, tracking west at 8 mph.

If it remains on its current track, Halong will slowly start turning northwest over the next couple of days, gradually picking up forward speed and also diminishing somewhat as it moves northwest. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track takes Halong 74 miles east of Kadena at 11 a.m. Thursday, still packing sustained 104-mph winds and 127-mph gusts at its center. Still some uncertainty over where it will actually go, and we are talking six days out yet, so this could change.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. If Halong tracks as forecast, TCCOR could be upgraded sometime Tuesday morning.


3 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 2, Japan time: A much more grim outlook regarding Typhoon Halong, which continues to lurk some 940 miles south-southeast of Okinawa. The bad news is, Halong is tracking slowly westward, at just 6 mph, through a very favorable area of development, nourishing itself over the warm waters of the northwest Pacific basin and rapidly intensifying. Halong is now forecast to peak at mid-morning Monday at 144-mph sustained winds and 172-mph gusts – equal to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. If it remains on its current forecast track, Halong is projected to pass 69 miles east of Kadena Air Base at about 9 a.m. Thursday, still packing a significant Category 3-equivalent wallop, 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at its center. There’s still some uncertainty about the forecast track, so this may change. PST will keep an eye on things.


8:30 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 2, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have reverted to seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, given the monsoon depression's movement north away from the island. But that's only for now, given the most recent update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center regarding Halong, which strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon overnight Friday, and its latest forecast track. If it remains on track, Halong is now forecast to pass 100 miles east of Kadena Air Base around 11 p.m. Wednesday, packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at its center. Kadena weather's website, Shogunweather.com, projects 31-mph sustained winds and 37-mph gusts into Wednesday evening. PST continues to keep a sharp lookout.


11:30 p.m. Friday, Aug. 1, Japan time: Tropical Storm Halong's forward speed has slowed, enough that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center now projects it to pass Okinawa later than previously forecast. If it remains on its current track, Halong should rumble 140 miles east of Kadena Air Base around 9 p.m. Wednesday, 6 hours later than previous projections, and packing sustained 98-mph winds and 121-mph gusts at its center. Long-range dynamic guidance continues to differ, some models suggesting a curve toward southwestern Kyushu and others a straight-line approach to the Yellow Sea (West Sea). U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, given the close proximity of the monsoon depression that dumped more than 10 inches of rain on Okinawa in two days.


6 p.m. Friday, Aug. 1, Japan time: Still much uncertainty over Tropical Storm Halong's forecast track, but with every passing update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, it's becoming apparent that Halong will at least visit the Okinawa neighborhood to its east on Wednesday.

Based on the latest from JTWC, if Halong remains on its forecast track, it should rumble 156 miles east of Kadena Air Base at about 3 p.m. Wednesday, packing Category 1-equivalent sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts at its center. Kadena's weather Web page, Shogunweather.com, shows winds picking up starting Monday; the five-day picture has Kadena experiencing sustained 26-mph winds and 31-mph gusts Tuesday evening.

Long-range dynamic guidance is split, with some models showing a curve toward southern Japan, others a direct north-northwest track into the Yellow Sea (West Sea). PST is keeping a sharp lookout. Nothing to be concerned with immediately, but definitely something to watch.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Storm Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, with the monsoon depression gradually moving north toward Kyushu and Korea. Destructive winds are not forecast for either area.


4 p.m. Friday, Aug. 1, Japan time: PST hasn’t forgotten about Tropical Storm Halong, which a few days ago caused high winds and widespread flooding on Guam. While too soon to say definitively, over the last day, Halong’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track has varied west by some 200 miles, which may bring Halong to Okinawa’s doorstep. The last JTWC update forecasts Halong to come within 200 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base at mid-afternoon Wednesday, heading in a north-northwesterly direction. Not a cause for concern (yet), but something to keep an eye on moving forward, as PST will and always does.


4 p.m. Friday, Aug. 1, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Although the monsoon depression is moving north-northwest of Okinawa, it’s still in close enough proximity to produce 52-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts to the island the rest of the day Friday. MWR facilities at White Beach and Camp Shields have closed and will reopen for normal business hours on Saturday. Be safe, folks.


12:30 p.m. Friday, Aug. 1, Japan time: MWR facilities at Camp Shields and White Beach will close at 1 p.m. Friday due to severe weather conditions, Fleet Activities Okinawa announced on its Facebook page at mid-day Friday. They are expected to reopen Saturday at normal business hours. Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch remains in effect for Okinawa. The tropical cyclone formation alert associated with the monsoon depression passing over Okinawa has been canceled by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Stay alert for possible flooding and airborne objects. Though this isn't a tropical cyclone per se, it's still a dangerous storm.

Get your safe on.


4 p.m. Thursday, July 31, Japan time: Still no tropical cyclone of any description, but Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch will continue into Friday for Okinawa, with gusts up to 58 mph and 5 more inches of rain expected on top of the 5 that have already fallen since the onset of this bad weather on Wednesday.

Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing commanding officer Brig. Gen. James Hecker addressed the base on its Facebook page early Thursday afternoon, saying winds are not forecast to exceed 58-mph sustained, but “there still exists a probability of high winds. Take the time to secure any loose items outside and be wary of possible flooding.”

Units should follow their commanders’ directions for limiting storm damage, Hecker’s statement continued. “Remain alert and monitor the radio or Shogunweather.com. Exercise caution while outdoors.”

PST continues to watch this disturbance closely. Local forecasts call for rain to pick up Thursday evening into Friday; currently, rainfall is very heavy over eastern Kyushu. The disturbance is forecast to track toward Korea by Sunday, according to Japanese weather agencies. Some flights serving Naha International Airport have been canceled or delayed.

Get your safe on.


1 p.m. Thursday, July 31, Japan time: Though it's not been numbered or labeled a tropical cyclone of any description by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, a monsoon depression is close enough and strong enough that Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch has been issued for U.S. bases on Okinawa. Heavy rain and wind gusts up to 57 mph are forecast into Friday and perhaps Saturday. Better safe than sorry — stay alert and pay attention to official information channels.


8:30 a.m. Wednesday, July 30, Japan time: Wow, traffic appears to be picking up in Typhoon Alley. After more than a week of lurking as a tropical disturbance, first near Guam a week ago and off the coast of the Philippines for the past few days, an area of convection some 475 miles south-southeast of Okinawa is apparently taking on tropical cyclone characteristics.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on this disturbance, which is moving north-northwest in Okinawa's general direction.

Much too early to determine where it will precisely go and how strong it may be, as it is with any tropical cyclone in its infancy. But Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight's extended forecast, provided by its newly launched Shogunweather.com website, indicates very wet and windy weather over the next few days for Okinawa.

  • Wednesday: Sustained 23- to 40-mph winds with 46- to 57-mph gusts, moderate rainshowers and thunderstorms.
  • Thursday: 36-mph sustained winds and 48-mph gusts, rain showers and numerous thunderstorms.
  • Friday: 36- to 38-mph sustained winds and 48-mph gusts, rain showers and numerous thunderstorms.
  • Saturday: 32-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts, rain showers and scattered thunderstorms.

PST will keep an eyeball on things.



8 a.m. Wednesday, July 30, Japan time: Again, no tropical cyclone associated with the windy weather Okinawa has seen the past couple of days (yet), but the island can still expect fierce winds and heavy rain over the next few days. According to Kadena Air Base’s newly launched Shogunweather.com website, winds between 23 and 40 mph with gusts between 40 and 57 mph are forecast for Wednesday, decreasing to between 38 and 48 mph on Thursday and Friday with plenty of rain showers and numerous thunderstorms. Forecast may turn for the better on Sunday. PST will keep an eye on things.



7 a.m. Tuesday, July 29, Japan time: Okinawa isn't facing a tropical cyclone of the first order yet, but the island is in for some high winds, heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms as the week progresses, according to Kadena Air Base's newly launched Shogunweather.com  weather Web site. Look for winds peaking at 32-mph sustained and 41-mph gusts through Wednesday, gradually decreasing as the week progresses, but with rain and thundershowers prevailing all the way into Saturday. A tropical disturbance continues percolating some 630 miles southeast of Okinawa but whether it develops into something more severe is yet to be determined. PST will continue keeping an eyeball on it.
 

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