Quantcast

Tropical Storm 06W (Noul), # 27

Typhoon Noul appears in this false-color satellite image taken May 11, 2015. <br>NOAA
Typhoon Noul appears in this false-color satellite image taken May 11, 2015.

1:30 p.m. Tuesday, May 12, Japan time: Noul has been downgraded to a tropical storm, is rapidly picking up forward speed and should be in and out of the Kanto area rather quickly on Wednesday. It’s forecast to make landfall over the southern Kansai area around mid-afternoon Tuesday, then blast through the central Kanto area about midnight Tuesday as a cold-core low. Still pretty windy and rainy, 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts, but not nearly what we’d feared earlier.

_________________________________________________________________________________

10:45 a.m. Tuesday, May 12, Japan time: Yokota Air Base, west of Tokyo, has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, according to the base's official Facebook page. Base officials anticipate 40 mph winds at about 1 a.m. Wednesday.



10:30 a.m. Tuesday, May 12, Japan time: That was fast. And relatively dry. U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). While destructive winds of 58 mph are not expected to occur, staff civil and maintenance crews are out inspecting for damage, downed powerlines and trees and such. So, best to remain indoors until the all-clear is sounded, probably sometime later today.

Typhoon Noul is forecast to degrade to tropical-storm strength and should move rapidly through the Kanto Plain sometime early Wednesday morning, still packing a bit of a wallop as a cold-core low, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts as it roars past Yokota Air Base 21 miles to its west at 4 a.m. Wednesday. Naval Air Facility Atsugi remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.
 

_____________________________________________________________________________

7:30 a.m. Tuesday, May 12, Japan time: Though Typhoon Noul’s closest point of approach has already come and gone, 48 miles northwest at 5:50 a.m. Tuesday, Okinawa is not out of the woods yet. U.S. bases on Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) at 7 a.m. Winds between 35 and 57 mph are occurring at a particular base on island. Doesn’t appear as though Okinawa will enter TCCOR 1-E (emergency), but one never knows. Keep tuned into official channels for the latest. PST will do the same.



6:30 a.m. Tuesday, May 12, Japan time: Okinawa might get lucky. Typhoon Noul has begun diminishing and has picked up forward speed, moving rapidly northeast at about 35 mph. Closest point of approach to Okinawa is now about 50 miles northwest at about 7 a.m., winds still pretty vicious at its center, 75-mph sustained and 92-mph gusts. But that’s at Noul’s center, just to the west of the island. And the winds and gusts wouldn’t last long at the rate Noul is moving. PST should know more soon. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Kanto Plain isn’t out of the woods, though. Looks as if Noul is forecast to move further inland, as a cold-core low but still with pretty strong winds early Wednesday morning.
 



1:30 a.m. Tuesday, May 12, Japan time: Noul remains on an almost direct-hit course on Okinawa, but the fiercest portion should be in and out of Okinawa more quickly than earlier forecast, according to the latest from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Kadena can still expect a near-direct hit, 15 miles east at 8 a.m. Tuesday, according to the JTWC’s latest forecast track. Here’s the latest wind forecast timeline from the weather flight, which indicates an upgrade to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) at 4 a.m. and 1-E (emergency) at 6 a.m.:

  • Onset of sustained 40-mph winds, 4 a.m.
  • Onset of sustained 58-mph winds, 6 a.m.
  • Maximum 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, 8 a.m.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, 10 a.m.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, noon Tuesday.
     


7:30 p.m. Monday, May 11, Japan time: Little change in the previous wind forecast timeline from the 18th Wing Weather Flight. We’re still seeing sustained 58-mph winds between 4 and 10 a.m. Tuesday, with peak winds for Kadena and the rest of the island forecast to be 81-mph sustained and 110-mph gusts at around 7 a.m. Batten down the hatches, if only for a short while, Okinawa.

__________________________________________________________________________________
 

4:15 p.m. Monday, May 11, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 at 4 p.m. Monday. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.

__________________________________________________________________________________
 

4 p.m. Monday, May 11, Japan time: Typhoon Noul has begun diminishing some in strength as it begins tracking northeast on a heading that should take it almost directly over Kadena Air Base and make a direct hit on the north and east sections of Okinawa early Tuesday morning. It won’t hang around for very long, but it will pack a decisively powerful punch as it passes through.

And Okinawa’s not alone; Naval Air Facility Atsugi entered Tropical Cyclone Condition Storm Watch at 1 p.m. Monday. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR 2; expect an upgrade to TCCOR 1 very shortly.

Here’s the latest wind forecast timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

— Onset of sustained 40-mph winds, midnight Monday.
— Onset of sustained 58-mph winds, 4 a.m. Tuesday.
— Maximum 92-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts for north and eastern Okinawa, 7 a.m. Tuesday; 81-mph sustained winds and 118-mph gusts for Kadena, 7 a.m. Tuesday.
— Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, 10 a.m. Tuesday.
— Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, noon Tuesday.

Five to seven inches of rain still forecast for Okinawa.

As it picks up forward speed and diminishes under the influence of cooler seas and vertical wind shear, Noul is next forecast to ramble rapidly northeast, transitioning into a cold-core low as it passes 46 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at around 3 a.m. Wednesday, still packing a serious punch: 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________
 

8 a.m. Monday, May 11, Japan time: Noul was downgraded to typhoon status overnight Sunday by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. U.S. bases on Okinawa are now in Tropical Cyclone condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.

Latest wind forecast timeline for Okinawa courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of sustained 40-mph winds, midnight Monday.
-- Onset of sustained 58-mph winds, 2 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Maximum 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts for north and east Okinawa, 81-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts for Kadena, 6 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, 10 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, noon Tuesday.
 

 

8 p.m. Sunday, May 10, Japan time: Looks like the Kanto Plain may be in for a blustery morning on Wednesday long after Super Typhoon Noul has departed Okinawa, begins diminishing and rapidly picks up forward speed northeast toward the Tokyo area.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes Noul 60 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, 82 miles southeast of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 85 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base at around 9 a.m. Wednesday. Though it should become a cold-core low before or as it reaches the Kanto Plain, Noul should still be packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts at its center as it roars past. No watches or warnings are in effect yet.

As for Okinawa, where U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, the outlook appears more grim with every passing model run. Noul is forecast to pass 26 miles east of Kadena Air Base about 9 a.m. Tuesday, which means much of the north and east portions of the island will take a direct hit from Noul, which is projected to remain a powerful Category 1-equivalent storm. Expect an upgrade to TCCOR 2 sometime mid-morning Monday and TCCOR 1 mid-evening Monday.

Here’s the latest wind forecast timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, 3 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Onset of 58-mph sustained winds, 6 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Maximum 81-mph sustained winds and 108-mph gusts for Kadena Air Base, 92-mph sustained and 115-mph gusts for northeast Okinawa, 10 a.m.
-- Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, noon Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 3 p.m. Tuesday.

Five to seven inches of rain are forecast.


4:15 p.m. Sunday, May 10, Japan time: Relish the gorgeous Mother’s Day weather on Okinawa, for it will not last long, if the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track and the Kadena Air Base 18th Wing Weather Flight timeline prove prescient. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect an upgrade to TCCOR 2 early Monday morning.

Super Typhoon Noul is now forecast to clip Okinawa 32 miles east of Kadena Air Base at about 10 a.m. Tuesday. Top winds at Kadena are forecast to be 81-mph sustained and 105-mph gusts at about that time; areas north and east of Kadena can expect worse. And the forecast period of sustained 58-mph winds has increased to seven hours on Tuesday. Five to seven inches of rain are forecast.

Here’s the latest wind timeline from Kadena’s weather flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, 3 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Onset of 58-mph sustained winds, 6 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Maximum 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts for eastern Okinawa, 10 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, 1 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 4 p.m. Tuesday.

Time to make that run to the commissary to pick up all the necessities: Non-perishable food and water for both you and your furry friends to last at least three days, diapers for little ones, and visit the ATM and gasoline stand; power can go off for long durations during tropical cyclones. Portable radio, flashlight and batteries.

The north and east coasts of the Philippines’ northernmost Luzon island are currently feeling the full wrath of the Category 5-equivalent storm. Public Storm Warning Signal 4 is up for northeastern Cagayan, Batanes, Babuyan and the Calayan island group. Noul, named Dodong in the Philippines, has already made its closest points of approach to Manila, the former Clark Air Base and the former Subic Bay Naval Station.
 


11:30 a.m. Sunday, May 10, Japan time: Noul was upgraded to a super typhoon overnight Saturday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

7:30 p.m. Saturday, May 9, Japan time: Here’s the latest wind forecast timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight for Typhoon Noul, now forecast to pass 35 miles east of Kadena at 1 p.m. Tuesday:

Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, 7 a.m. Tuesday.
Onset of 58-mph sustained winds, 11 a.m. Tuesday.
Maximum 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, 1 p.m. Tuesday (63-mph sustained and 91-mph gusts forecast for Kadena).
Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, 3 p.m. Tuesday.
Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 7 p.m. Tuesday.

The weather flight also said 5 to 7 inches of rain are forecast.


6:30 p.m. Saturday, May 9, Japan time:Looks as if Typhoon Noul will remain a Category 1-equivalent storm as it ramrods its way rather rapidly through the Okinawa area early Tuesday afternoon, raking the island with possible 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts in the eastern sections. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; expect an upgrade to TCCOR 3 sometime Sunday morning or mid-day.

The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes Noul 35 miles east of Kadena Air Base at around 1 p.m. Tuesday. Forecast winds at Kadena Air Base are 58-mph sustained with 78-mph gusts, according to Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. A new wind forecast timeline is coming up shortly at PST.

As for the Philippines, at 4 p.m. local time, Noul was projected to be 217 miles east of Infanta, Quezon, moving northwest at 13 mph. It’s forecast to make landfall over Isabela-Cagayan area Sunday morning and exit northern Luzon over Aparri-Cagayan by Sunday afternoon, packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at its center, according to JTWC and the Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA.

Public Storm Warning Signal 3, PAGASA’s highest alert level, has been issued for Cagayan, Isabela and Northern Aurora; 75-mph sustained winds and 105-mph gusts are forecast. Noul is forecast to pass 188 miles northeast of Metro Manila at 6 a.m. Sunday and 180 miles northeast of Clark Free Economic Zone and 218 miles northeast of Subic Bay Free Port at 9 a.m.


9 a.m. Saturday, May 9, Japan time: Ahead of Typhoon Noul's approach early next week, Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at about 9 a.m. today. Residents should prepare for winds of 58 mph sustained and 69 mph gusts or greater, which are possible within 72 hours.



7:45 p.m. Friday, May 8, Japan time: Things are becoming more focused where U.S. bases on Okinawa and Typhoon Noul are concerned. It should not remain in the Okinawa area for very long, but Tuesday should be a rather rainy, blustery morning for the folks on island. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 5. Destructive winds of 58-mph sustained or 69-mph gusts are possible within 96 hours. Expect an upgrade to TCCOR 4 sometime Saturday.

According to Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight, Noul is forecast to pass 35 miles east of Okinawa around 10 a.m. Tuesday. Strongest winds at Kadena are forecast to be 58 mph sustained with 70-mph gusts; eastern areas of the island should experience 63-mph sustained winds with 81-mph gusts.

Here is the 18th Wing Weather Flight’s wind forecast timeline for Noul:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, 4 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds, 8 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Maximum 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts, 10 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, 11 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 2 p.m. Tuesday.

Noul should then skedaddle rather rapidly northeast, passing 122 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at high noon Wednesday, still packing sustained 40-mph winds and 52-mph gusts at its center. But it will likely have converted to a cold-core low at that point.

As for the Philippines, the northeast coast of Luzon is still due for a visit, packing Category 4-equivalent 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts as it roars past. Public Storm Warning Signal 2 has been set for Cantanduanes in northeastern Luzon; PSWS 1 is still in effect for other areas of Luzon as well as northern and eastern Samar in the Visayas, which has taken repeated poundings over the last two years.

Noul, called Dodong in the Philippines, is due to pass 200 miles northeast of Metro Manila at around 4 a.m. Monday, 193 northeast of the former Clark Air Base at 6 a.m. and 232 northeast of the old Subic Bay Naval Station at around 7 a.m. Monday.



12:15 p.m. Friday, May 8, Japan time: The Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA’s website says public storm warning Signal 1 has been set for the Visayas and for areas in east-central Luzon. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Typhoon Noul to skirt the east coast of Luzon at about 8 a.m. Sunday, packing Category 4-eqiuvalent 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at its center.

Noul is then forecast to curve northeast, passing Okinawa about 43 miles southeast at about 8 a.m. Tuesday. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s Shogun Weather website forecasts 30-mph winds and 46-mph gusts Tuesday morning, increasing to 40 and 58 by afternoon and evening. Weather flight officials said to expect possible setting of Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 5 sometime Friday afternoon and TCCOR 4 sometime Saturday morning.

TCCOR 5 is a new addition to the U.S. Forces Japan instruction, according to a weather flight official. TCCOR 5 means destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 96 hours.

Noul should then rapidly weaken and quickly head northeast, passing 132 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 9 a.m. Wednesday, still packing 40-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at its center before diminishing over the northwest Pacific Ocean.


 


2:45 p.m. Thursday, May 7, Philippines time: Every succeeding forecast track has taken Typhoon Noul farther west the last couple of days. It’s now due to slam ashore over central Luzon island sometime Sunday morning, then curve north toward Taiwan, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track.

JTWC and the Philippines’ national weather authority PAGASA’s Web page project Noul to make landfall around 9 a.m. Sunday in the vicinity of Isabela and Cagayan in central Luzon as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, packing sustained 132-mph winds and 161-mph gusts at its center.

Noul is forecast to pass 132 miles northeast of Metro Manila around 10 a.m. Sunday, 122 miles northeast of the former Clark Air Base and 160 miles northeast of the former Subic Bay Naval Station at about 1 p.m. Sunday. No public storm warning signals have been issued by PAGASA.

JTWC then takes Noul on a northeast curve toward Taiwan, with a second landfall forecast for 8 a.m. Tuesday Taiwan time over the island’s southern tip. PAGASA’s track has Noul bypassing Taiwan and headed more toward Japan’s southwestern-most islands, including Yonaguni, Ishigaki and Miyako. Whether or not that means Okinawa is due for a visit is still uncertain.

__________________________________________________________________________________
 

7 p.m. Wednesday, May 6, Guam time: As Typhoon Noul begins its west-northwest trek in the general direction of Luzon, a new disturbance is brewing about 200 miles south-southeast of Pohn’pei and 355 miles west-southwest of Kosrae in Micronesia.

The disturbance is already causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over those two areas and Chu’uk, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Computer models are differing in the details but all indicate the disturbance could develop into the seventh numbered storm of the season.

Meanwhile, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track has shifted Noul slightly west than previous projections, closer to Luzon sometime Monday, at which time it would be packing sustained 132-mph winds and 161 mph gusts at its center.

Noul is forecast to rumble along Luzon’s east coast, passing 202 miles east of Clark Free Economic Zone at about 1 a.m. Monday, 203 miles east of Metro Manila at about midnight Sunday and 240 miles east of Subic Bay Free Port at about 9 p.m. Sunday.

The Philippines weather authority PAGASA’s Web page stated that Noul, known as Dodong in the Philippines, will enter that country’s area of responsibility sometime Thursday. No public storm warning signals have been issued yet.

While still forecast to curve poleward, officials at Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight said it’s still too early to tell if that curve would include a turn toward Okinawa. An official there said it would be another two days before they could make any determinations.

_________________________________________________________________________________

6:30 p.m. Wednesday, May 6, Guam time: Typhoon warning for Yap state issued two days ago was canceled at 4 p.m. Guam time. No warnings or watches are in effect at this time.

__________________________________________________________________________________

11:30 a.m. Wednesday, May 6, Japan time: Noul has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it continues to ravage Yap State, where a typhoon warning remains in effect, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Noul is currently packing sustained 75-mph winds and 92-mph gusts as it rolls westward through Yap’s islands.

Though it’s too early to tell, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track suggests a poleward turn before Noul reaches the Philippines’ northernmost island of Luzon, and possible curve northeast toward Okinawa. PST will know more in the next day or so.
 

__________________________________________________________________________________
 

4 p.m. Tuesday, May 5, Philippines time: Yap is bracing for a direct hit from Tropical Storm Noul, which has curved slightly west-southwest toward the main island. It faces forecast 74-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts Tuesday evening into Wednesday, just as it morphs into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Yap state remains under a typhoon warning except for Ulithi, which remains under a tropical storm watch; tropical storm conditions there should wind down Tuesday evening, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

From there, the forecast models continue to diverge, with a handful predicting a straight run west and others projecting a more west-northwest to northwest scenario, carrying it near northern Luzon island in the Philippines sometime Sunday. No tropical storm warning signals have been issued in that area, but the Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA’s Web page has already begun taking note of the storm.

___________________________________________________________________________
 

6 p.m. Monday, May 4, Philippines time: All of Yap state remains in tropical storm warning and a typhoon watch has been issued as well, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Noul’s forward speed has slowed and it’s forecast to pass 20 miles north of Yap early Wednesday morning, packing Category 1-equivalent typhoon winds, 81-mph sustained and 98-mph gusts at its center. Same areas that got blistered by Super Typhoon Maysak last month.

Still some disagreement over where Noul might head after that. Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports some dynamic aids have the system tracking west, with others countering with a more poleward track. Central Luzon, which has also taken recent poundings, could be the next destination.

_________________________________________________________________________________
 

9 a.m. Monday, May 4, Philippines time: Noul was upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center overnight Sunday. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Fais and Ulithi, while a tropical storm watch remains in effect for Ngulu and Yap. It’s forecast to pass about 50 miles north of Yap sometime Tuesday evening as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon.

Where it heads after that is still uncertain; there’s a significant spread among the forecast models, some suggesting a straight run west, others that Noul will curve north. PST will keep an eye on it.

__________________________________________________________________________________
 

8:30 p.m. Sunday, May 3, Philippines time: Not enough that Haiyan lo’ those 18 months ago and all the storms that have succeeded it have battered the central and northern Philippines, it appears as if the sixth numbered storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season apparently has the country’s northernmost island Luzon in its sights.

Yap is due to take a direct hit sometime Tuesday evening as 06W, as yet unnamed, strengthens and heads in a generally west-northwesterly direction toward the Philippines, with arrival there expected sometime next weekend.

National Weather Service on Guam has issued a tropical storm watch for Ulithi, Fais, Ngulu and Yap in Yap State. Winds in excess of 40 mph are forecast through Wednesday morning as 06W passes.

If 06W becomes a named storm – and most likely it will – it would be called Noul, Korean for red sky.

0

comments Join the conversation and share your voice!  

from around the web