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Tropical Storm 03W (Bavi), # 16

Tropical Storm Bavi is seen approaching Guam in this NOAA satellite image taken March 13, 2015.<br>NOAA.gov
Tropical Storm Bavi is seen approaching Guam in this NOAA satellite image taken March 13, 2015.

 

1:30 a.m. Monday, March 16, Guam time: The Ides of March have passed, and so, too, has Tropical Storm Bavi passed through the Marianas Islands. Wind and rain should continue through Monday morning and the islands remain in Condition of Readiness 1, but expect a reversion to seasonal COR 4 sometime early Monday as Bavi moves out of the area west toward the Philippines. PST will keep watch and see if Bavi has any effect on the Philippines. Hope everybody remains safe on Guam. Public works crews are scrambling to get water and power restored to any and all areas affected by Bavi. PST isn’t done with Bavi yet.

 



6:30 p.m. Sunday, March 15, Guam time: Bavi appears to have settled into a straight westward path on a beeline directly for the island of Rota; the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast has Bavi barreling straight over Rota about 8 p.m., packing sustained 58-mph winds and 75-mph gusts, somewhat below typhoon strength but a powerful punch nonetheless.

That puts Bavi about 35 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base and 52 miles north of Guam’s capital Hagatna around 9 p.m. Guam’s National Weather Service reported at 5 p.m. that tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles northwest through northeast of the center and just 40 miles southwest to southeast. Which could mean Guam may be spared the worst of Bavi’s wrath.

Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan all remain in Condition of Readiness 1 and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for all locales.

Guam’s Joint Information Center reports that three storm shelters opened at 2 p.m.: Machananao, Astumbo and Maria Ulloa Elementary Schools, with the Emergency Operations Center on standby should more shelters need to be opened.

Stay tuned to local radio stations, Guam’s Homeland Security and National Weather Service Facebook pages and Twitter feeds. 



3 p.m. Sunday, March 15, Guam time: Guam has been placed in Condition of Readiness 1 in advance of Tropical Storm Bavi’s anticipated arrival Sunday evening. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours. Joint Region Marianas advises all U.S. Forces personnel on island to stay indoors whether on base or off, to place towels and rags around leaky windows and doors and to conserve water.





1 p.m. Sunday, March 15, Guam time: Bavi has once more shifted west-northwest, putting its forecast track closer to Rota and slightly north of Guam. Closest point of approach now forecast for 28 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base at about 11 p.m. Sunday, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at its center.

Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan remain under tropical storm warning and Condition of Readiness 2. Guam is expected to upgrade to COR 1 at 3 p.m., according to Guam Homeland Security and Joint Region Marianas.

DODDS schools will be closed on Monday. Gates at Andersen, Big Navy and Naval Hospital will remain open for emergency purposes. Guam Memorial Hospital will start receiving expecting mothers who are 36 weeks pregnant as well as high-risk pregnant women six months or more into their pregnancy.

Storm shelters will open at 2 p.m., to include Maria Ulloa, Astumbo and Machananao Elementary Schools.


1 a.m. Sunday, March 15, Guam time: Wishful thinking. Or just the vagaries of tropical storms that make those zig-zag walks as they head progressively toward where people hope they don’t head.

Tropical Storm Bavi has begun heading in a more westerly direction and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track now takes Bavi back on a collision course with Guam. We’re looking at 9 miles south of the capital Hagatna, 29 miles south of Andersen Air Force Base and 14 miles north of Big Navy between 10 and 11 p.m. Sunday. Bavi should be packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts as it makes its way over the island late Sunday.

As much as this has changed since the last model runs, more changes could be in store. Bottom line is to be prepared for the worst. And the time for preparation will come and go very early Sunday, when the winds and rain will start to pick up.

Tinian, Rota and Saipan remain in Condition of Readiness 2 and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for each. Expect Guam to upgrade to COR 2 at any time. A typhoon watch remains in effect for Guam, Tinian, Rota and Saipan.


Midnight Saturday, March 14, Guam time:The islands of Rota, Tinian and Saipan have entered Condition of Readiness 2, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.


8:30 p.m. Saturday, March 14, Guam time: Guam might – just might – be spared the absolute worst of Tropical Storm Bavi, now forecast to track slightly north of the island and a bit earlier, sometime Sunday evening, as it’s tracking further west-northwest and moving faster than previous projections.

At 7 p.m. Saturday, Bavi was 500 miles east of Guam, rumbling west-northwest at 21 mph on a Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast trajectory taking the storm’s center 30 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base at 8 p.m. and 52 miles north of the island capital Hagatna at 9 p.m. Sunday. It will pack a pretty powerful wallop, 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts, but that’s at storm’s center. And it’s moving rather rapidly, not stopping to soak up sea-surface warmth and is being buffeted by vertical wind shear, further slowing intensification.

Guam’s National Weather Service says tropical storm-force winds extend 160 miles northwest through northeast and 90 miles elsewhere.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 3; Guam Homeland Security says an upgrade to COR 2 will likely happen Sunday morning. A typhoon watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, while a tropical storm warning has been issued for all except Guam.


10 a.m. Saturday, March 14, Guam time: Tropical Storm Bavi remains forecast to make a direct hit on Guam early Monday morning, packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts as it crosses the island around 6 a.m. Monday. Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan remain under typhoon watch. Condition of Readiness 3 remains in effect; expect that to be upgraded sometime Saturday to COR 2. Wind and rain should pick up starting Sunday; the time to finish preparing for Bavi’s arrival is now.


12:45 a.m. Saturday, March 14, Guam time: Dynamic model guidance has come into much better agreement in the last six hours, leading to a forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center that takes Tropical Storm Bavi straight into Guam early Monday, packing winds just under typhoon strength.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 3 and the island remains in a typhoon watch along with Rota, Tinian and Saipan to the north as Ravi has begun turning west-northwest in the general direction of the Marianas islands.

At 10:30 p.m., Ravi was 985 miles southeast of Guam, heading west-northwest at 14 mph. If it remains on Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track, Ravi should pass 14 miles south of Guam’s capital of Hagatna at about 5 a.m. Monday, packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts at its center.

And Ravi won’t be done after that. It’s forecast to intensify to typhoon strength after it exits the Marianas and approaches the Philippines as a Category 1-equivalent storm by late next week. This is just beginning.

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10:45 p.m. Friday, March 13, Guam time: Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 3 and the islands of Saipan, Rota, Tinian and Guam and waters 46 miles out are under a typhoon watch, according to the Guam National Weather Service and Homeland Security.

Here’s what to expect Saturday and Sunday, weather-wise, according to Guam Homeland Security’s Facebook page:

Saturday: Should start out nice and should be used as time to keep preparing for worsening weather. Northeast winds of 20 to 25 mph will set in. Surf on north-facing reefs should build to 10 feet and choppy seas to 13 feet.

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8:45 p.m. Friday, March 13, Guam time: Guam has entered Condition of Readiness 3 as of 8:15 p.m. and a typhoon watch has been issued for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan islands, according to National Weather Service and Guam Homeland Security. Damaging winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

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8 p.m. Friday, March 13, Guam time: Little change since the last update. Bavi still forecast to roll just south of Guam. But there is a spread of just more than 200 miles among the dynamic models, some depicting a track through the Marianas, others well south of Guam. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes Bavi 17 miles south of the capital Hagatna around 4 a.m. Monday packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts, a slight increase from previous forecast. And it appears as if Bavi may not be done once it exits the Marianas; the Philippines could be next.

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1:15 p.m. Friday, March 13, Guam time: No question, Tropical Storm Bavi is forecast to impact Guam sometime late Sunday or early Monday. The question is: How close will Bavi come to the island?

Dynamic model guidance seems to be in disagreement, with some computer models positioning Bavi slightly south of Guam, while others take it further south. And there’s also some question about how strong Bavi will be when it passes Guam. Such are the vagaries of tropical storms when they’re in their relative infancy; keep in mind, Bavi is just a day old at this point and still in its formative stages.

At 11 a.m. Guam time, Bavi was 1,150 miles east-southeast of Guam, moving west-northwest at 16 mph. If it remains on its Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track — which favors the northern model group — Bavi should pass 17 miles south of Hagatna, the island capital, about 1 a.m. Monday. It should also be packing a powerful punch, with sustained 63-mph winds and 81-mph gusts at its center.

No warnings or advisories are in effect for Guam at the moment, but that could change at any time.



12:30 a.m. Friday, March 13, Guam time: Little change to the forecast wind values regarding Tropical Storm Bavi; still projected to rake the north end of Guam with severe tropical storm-strength winds early Monday morning and to make an almost-direct hit on Rota Island just to its south.

At 9 p.m., Bavi was 1,440 miles east-southeast of Guam, headed west-northwest at about 14 mph. No warnings or advisories are in effect yet for Guam or the Marianas, which remain in seasonal Condition of Readiness 4, as is the case year-round. Expect that to change in the next day or so as Bavi continues rumbling toward the Marianas.

If it continues moving as forecast, Bavi should be packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts as it roars some 30 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base at about 6 a.m. Monday.

As stated in previous posts, the time to begin storm preparation is now. Tie down or move loose objects indoors. Even a trash-can lid can become a dangerous projectile in winds that strong.

Head to the commissary and grab some bottled water, non-perishable food, including nourishment for your furry family friends, and don’t forget to restock the diapers for the little ‘uns. Enough of all of that to last three days. Come Saturday, make sure to gas up and visit the ATM. Power tends to go out during such storms and could remain off for days at a time; make sure you have enough of all that on hand to last three days.

For those who might be interested, Bavi might be a familiar word for veterans of the Vietnam conflict; it’s the name of a mountain chain in northern Vietnam.

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1 p.m. Thursday, March 12, Guam time: Bavi was upgraded to a tropical storm early Thursday, and its latest forecast track takes it just north of Andersen Air Force Base around mid-morning Monday.

At 5 a.m. Thursday, Bavi was 1,610 miles east-southeast of Guam, moving west-northwest at 8 mph, according to National Weather Service Guam and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

It’s forecast to peak at 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts by Sunday, then pass about 10 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base about 10 a.m. Monday, still packing sustained 63-mph winds and 81-mph gusts.

Although not forecast to be an especially powerful storm, winds that strong can cause downed power lines, power outages and locally heavy flooding. Time to plan the visit to the commissary and stock your storm closet, at least three days of bottled water, non-perishable food, including nourishment for your furry family friends.

As the storm approaches, make sure to gas up the car and visit the ATM and get at least three days’ worth of money. Start storing the hibachi, take down the trampolines and bring your bicycles and other loose objects inside and tie them down. And stay indoors and resist the temptation to venture outdoors as the storm passes. Better safe than sorry; you only get one chance.
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Midnight Wednesday, March 11, Guam time: A new tropical depression, the third numbered storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, has spawned just south of Kwajalein. Though much uncertainty remains over its projected path and considering it’s so early in the storm’s cycle, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s initial forecast track takes 03W about 41 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base on Guam’s north end at about 1 a.m. Monday. It’s not forecast to become an especially powerful storm, achieving typhoon status briefly Saturday evening as it approaches the Marianas, but it’s forecast to be packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts as it rumbles north of Guam. PST as always will keep this one under finger.

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