Quantcast

Tropical Depression 01W (Mekkhala), # 13 Final

Mekkhala was upgraded to typhoon status Saturday morning, Jan. 17, 2015, and is forecast to strike the central Philippines.<br>NOAA
Mekkhala was upgraded to typhoon status Saturday morning, Jan. 17, 2015, and is forecast to strike the central Philippines.

10:30 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 18, Philippines time: Mekkhala has been downgraded to a tropical depression, has already moved past forecast closest point of approach to Manila and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes it over central Luzon where it should presumably die out in the next day or so. JTWC projects Mekkhala to pass 105 miles northeast of Subic Bay Free Port at about 2 a.m. Monday and 68 miles north-northeast of Clark Free Economic Zone two hours later, packing sustained 29-mph winds and 40-mph gusts. Public Storm Warning Signal 2 remains in effect for locations in or near the storm’s projected path.

----------------

12:45 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 18, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Mekkhala’s winds continue to diminish and its Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track continues taking it further east of Manila as it skims the east coast of Luzon. Public Storm Warning Signal 2 remains in effect for parts of Luzon; Signal 1 is in effect for north and east parts of Samar Island, where Mekkhala roared ashore yesterday. At 11 a.m., Mekkhala was 178 miles east-southeast of Manila heading northwest at 7 mph, packing sustained 40-mph winds and 46-mph gusts. Mekkhala is now forecast to track 70 miles northeast of Manila around 1 a.m. Monday, 106 miles northeast of Subic Bay Free Port four hours later and 69 miles northeast of Clark Free Economic Zone around 8 a.m. Monday.

 


9 a.m. Sunday, Jan. 18, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Mekkhala is diminishing in strength as it heads over the east-central Philippines islands. Latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes Mekkhala 43 miles northeast of Manila at about 2 a.m. Monday, 75 miles northeast of Subic Bay Free Port six hours later and 37 miles northeast of Clark Free Economic Zone around 9 a.m., packing sustained 35-mph winds and 46-mph gusts. Public Storm Warning Signal 2 remains in effect for south-central Luzon and Visayas.

 


11:15 p.m. Saturday, Jan. 17, Philippines time: Typhoon Mekkhala made landfall at mid-afternoon over a familiar target, Dolores, on the east coast of Samar island in the central Philippines – the same place that Super Typhoon Hagupit hit in early December when it began its crossing of the republic.

Mekkhala has been downgraded to a tropical storm as it makes its way across the central Philippines islands. Public Storm Warning Signal 2 remains in effect for Visayas and locations in southern Luzon. At 8 p.m. Saturday, Mekkhala was about 300 miles east-southeast of Manila and tracking northwest at around 10 mph, packing sustained 63-mph winds and 81-mph gusts at its center.

Mekkhala has put Manila, the former Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Station in considerable danger compared to previous forecasts. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes Mekkhala 41 miles northeast of Manila at about 4 a.m. Monday, 35 miles northeast of Clark Free Economic Zone seven hours later 72 miles northeast of Subic Bay Free Port at 10 a.m. It’s forecast to be packing sustained 52-mph winds and 63-mph gusts as it roars past.


11 a.m. Saturday, Jan. 17, Philippines time: Typhoon Mekkhala’s forward speed has slowed some — it's now moving west at 8 mph — and as it remains over water, it continues intensifying. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update has Mekkhala peaking at 81-mph sustained winds with 98-mph gusts. Landfall is still projected for mid-afternoon Saturday over Samar island. Public Storm Warning Signal 2 is still in effect for Visayas and parts of southern Luzon.

And the news also gets worse for metro Manila and the former Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Station: JTWC’s latest forecast track takes Mekkhala closer to each. Mekkhala is now on course to pass 77 miles southwest of Manila at about 7 a.m. Monday, 95 miles west-southwest of Clark Free Economic Zone nine hours later and 58 miles west-southwest of Subic Bay Free Port at about 5 p.m.


9 a.m. Saturday, Jan. 17, Philippines time: Mekkhala has been upgraded to the northwest Pacific’s first typhoon of the 2015 season and remains on target to strike the central islands of the Philippines this weekend. Landfall is forecast for mid-afternoon Saturday over east Samar island. The Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal 2 for Samar and other Visayas and southern Luzon locations.

At 5 a.m. local time, Mekkhala (called Amang by PAGASA) was 506 miles east-southeast of Manila and 136 miles east of Borongan in east Samar and moving west-southwest at 10 mph, packing sustained 75 mph winds and 92-mph gusts at its center.

Mekkhala is forecast to diminish as it crosses the central Philippines, moving 123 miles south-southwest of Manila at about 1 a.m. Monday, 151 miles south-southwest of Clark Free Economic Zone eight hours later and 115 miles southwest of Subic Bay Free Port at about 11 a.m. Monday.

Winds should diminish as Mekkhala crosses the Philippines, but heavy rain is expected, causing possible landslides and flooding in low-lying areas.


11 p.m. Friday, Jan. 16, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Mekkhala is intensifying more than forecast, and is now projected to top out at 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts — just below typhoon strength — as it heads for Samar Island. Landfall should come sometime midday Saturday.

Public Storm Warning Signal 1, the lowest alert issued by the Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA, remains in effect for southern Luzon and Visayas in the central part of the republic.

At 7 p.m. local time Friday, Mekkhala (called Amang by PAGASA) was about 250 miles east of Borongan in east Samar and at 9 p.m. was 540 miles east-southeast of Manila, moving west at about 16 mph.

Mekkhala should begin diminishing as it interacts with the central Philippines islands. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes it 100 miles south-southwest of Metro Manila at about 3 a.m. Monday, 132 miles south-southwest of Clark Free Economic Zone six hours later and 98 miles southwest of Subic Bay Free Port at around noon. It should still be packing sustained 35-mph winds and 46-mph gusts as it roars by.


11 a.m. Friday, Jan. 16, Philippines time: Public Storm Warning Signal 1, the lowest alert status issued by the Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA, was posted this morning as Tropical Storm Mekkhala (or Amang, as PAGASA calls it) continues making its way west toward the Central Philippines.

At 8 a.m., Mekkhala was 710 miles east-southeast of Manila and at 4 a.m. was 357 miles east of Borongan City in East Samar, moving west at about 9 mph. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Mekkhala to peak at 52-mph sustained winds, with 63-mph gusts at its center, sometime Friday evening, gradually diminishing as it reaches the Samar coast.

Landfall is forecast for about late Friday afternoon over East Samar. Mekkhala should diminish in strength as it interacts with land, but expect rain and showers, heavy at times, with flooding in low-lying areas. Landslides may also be a factor.

Mekkhala is forecast to pass 114 miles south of metro Manila at about 2 a.m. Monday, 156 miles south of Clark Free Economic Zone three hours later and 131 miles south of Subic Bay Free Port at about 7 a.m., with sustained 29-mph winds and 40-mph gusts at its center.



5:30 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 15, Philippines time: Wet, windy weather might greet an estimated 700,000 expected to gather at Rizal Park as Pope Francis is to celebrate an open-air Mass at about 3:30 p.m. Sunday, his last engagement on his Asia tour before returning to the Vatican.

The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track has diverted Tropical Storm Mekkhala’s projected course south, on a possible collision course with Metro Manila and the former Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Station come Sunday and Monday.

Mekkhala is now forecast to plow 23 miles southwest of Manila at about 7 a.m. Monday, 48 miles southwest of Clark Free Economic Zone six hours later and 13 miles southwest of Subic Bay Free Port at about 3 p.m., packing sustained 46-mph winds and 58-mph gusts at its center. The Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA has not issued any public storm warning signals yet.


3:30 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 15, Philippines time: Mekkhala strengthened into a tropical storm overnight Wednesday, has left Yap behind and is taking a more westerly track toward the central Philippines islands. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ latest forecast track takes Mekkhala through central Luzon after making landfall sometime early Monday evening.

Mekkhala was 922 miles east of Manila at midday Thursday. JTWC projects Mekkhala to pass 78 miles northeast of Manila at about midafternoon Monday, 68 miles north of Clark Free Economic Zone and 107 miles north of Subic Bay Free Port about 10 p.m., packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at its center.

Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA http://pagasa.dost.gov.ph/ has not issued a public storm warning signal yet. National Weather Service on Guam http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/guam/ still has a small-craft advisory in place until noon Friday, projecting sustained 29-mph northeast winds and 35-mph gusts.


4 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 14, Philippines time: It appears there’s a chance that Tropical Depression 01W might graze the Philippines’ east-central islands and miss the Metro Manila area altogether, or at least emit some strong gusts and drop heavy rainshowers on the area sometime Sunday evening into Monday.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes 01W 160 miles east of Manila around 6 a.m. Monday, 206 miles east of Subic Bay Free Port three hours later and 170 miles east of Clark Free Economic Zone around 10 a.m. Monday.

It should still be a fairly strong tropical storm, packing 46-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at its center. Where the Philippines are always concerned, it’s about the rain, lack of drainage and potential for flooding and landslides.

PST’s got this under finger. No elevated signals have been issued by the Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA at this point.


3:40 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 14, Guam time: National Weather Service says winds and showers will diminish Wednesday and quieter weather is expected the rest of the week for the Marianas. High surf, high risk of rip currents, wind and small-craft advisories remain in effect for the Marianas. For Yap and Palau, high-surf advisory for north-facing reefs is in effect. NWS Guam also says its undergoing a major software upgrade to better serve inhabitants of the Marianas and other areas of the northwest Pacific.


11 a.m. Wednesday, Jan. 14, Philippines time: It’s early yet in the life of the first numbered storm of the 2015 northwest Pacific tropical cyclone season, but initial projections show Tropical Depression 01W possibly headed toward Metro Manila as a strong Signal 1 storm after projected landfall early Monday near Visayas on the Philippines’ east coast.

01W spawned overnight Tuesday southwest of Guam, is currently making its way northeast of Yap and is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to make a zig-zag walk for the next few days, finally making a west-northwest beeline toward Visayas.

JTWC projects 01W to creep within 61 miles of Manila, 102 miles of Clark Free Economic Zone (the old Clark Air Base) and 116 miles of Subic Bay Free Port (the old Subic Bay Naval Station) around 8 a.m. Tueday. It should be packing 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts as it reaches the Metro Manila area. PST will keep an eye on it.

If 01W becomes a named storm, it will be called Mekkhala, a Thai word for angel of thunder. Apropos.<


12:40 p.m. Tuesday, Jan. 13, Guam time: A new tropical disturbance spawned overnight south of Guam and is significant enough that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert. JTWC has it developing as it heads west in the general direction of Yap; Guam for the moment appears out of danger, but PST will keep an eye on it. A small-craft advisory has been posted by the Guam National Weather Service through 6 p.m. Thursday, 25- to 30-mph winds with gusts up to 40 during shower.

0

comments Join the conversation and share your voice!  

from around the web