Hurricane 10E (Hector), # 6 FINAL
By DAVE ORNAUER | Stars and Stripes | Published: August 3, 2018
4 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 9, Hawaii time: Hector's outer wind and rain bands lashed Hawaii's Big Island with squalls at mid-week. It has been downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane and is forecast by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center to pass between the western Hawaiian islands and Johnston Island and south of Midway island before crossing the International DatelIne and becoming a typhoon.
8 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 7, Hawaii time: A tropical storm warning has been issued for Hawaii's Big Island in advance of Hurricane Hector, which remains forecast to pass well south of the 50th State, according to the National Hurricane Center and local news reports.
At 5 p.m., Hector was 400 miles east-southeast of Hilo on the Big Island, headed west at 17 mph as a Category 4 hurricane, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts.
Hector is forecast to weaken as it continues moving west, with passage forecast to be 190 miles south of Hilo at 11 a.m. Wednesday, still packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center.
Tropical storm-force winds between 39 and 73 mph can be expected through Tuesday and Wednesday on the Big Island.
U.S. bases on Hawaii's principal island of Oahu should be well out of harm's way. NHC forecasts Hector to pass 306 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith at 10 p.m. Wednesday.
5:30 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 7, Hawaii time: A tropical storm watch has been issued for Hawaii's Big Island by the National Hurricane Center, just in case some of Hurricane Hector's rain bands reach the island, according to ABC News via Yahoo.com.
At 2 a.m., Hector was 584 miles east-southeast of Hilo, headed west-northwest at 18 mph as a Category 4 hurricane, packing 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts.
But Hector remains a small storm in terms of diameter, and its outer wind and rain bands are forecast to remain well south of the Big Island.
Hector is forecast to pass 228 miles south of Hilo at 11 a.m. Wednesday, keep heading west and passing 345 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu about 11 hours later.
5:30 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 5, Hawaii time: If Hector was on the other side of the International Dateline, it would be bordering on super-typhoon strength.
By current model guidance and National Hurricane Center forecasts, Hector could, indeed, become one of those rare tropical cyclones that survives long enough to cross the dateline and convert from hurricane to typhoon, though it's forecast to weaken before that happens.
At 3 p.m., Hector was 1,146 miles east-southeast of Hilo, headed due west at 14 mph, packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts, Category 4 intensity by the Saffir-Simpson scale.
If Hector remains on current course, it's forecast to pass 190 miles south of Hilo on Hawaii's Big Island at at 9 a.m. Wednesday, having weakened to 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Oahu should be well out of harm's way.
As to crossing the dateline and how far it travels from there is hard to say. The GFS ensemble does have Hector crossing the dateline and curving northwest, while the CMC ensemble stops just short at this point. Time will tell. Stay tuned.
12:45 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 4, Hawaii time: Residents of Hawaii's Big Island could face a major disaster in the coming days, if Hurricane Hector ventures close to the island and collides with erupting Kilauea Volcano.
Media outlets are reporting if such an episode takes place, residents could be threatened with mudslides, flooding and toxic acid rain.
Hector has continued gradually intensifying as it moves west, but Hawaii's Big Island and U.S. bases scattered throughout the islands could be spared from its full fury, according to the National Hurricane Center.
At midnight Friday, Hector was 1,607 miles east-southeast of Hilo on the Big Island and 1,548 miles west-southwest of San Diego, headed due west at 10 mph, packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center.
Hector is forecast to peak as a strong Category 3-equivalent hurricane, 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts by noon Saturday, then gradually weaken as it approaches Hawaii, passing 198 miles south of Hilo at noon Tuesday, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center.
That's far enough away that the Big Island and U.S. bases on Oahu and other islands could evade Hector's full fury. But outer bands could create high winds and squalls. Mixed with volcanic gases from Kilauea, that could cause toxic rainfall which could threaten crops, drinking water and infrastructure. Stay tuned. This could get ugly.
8:30 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 2, Hawaii time: Hector has mushroomed into a Category 2 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, and early model guidance indicates it could head toward and threaten Hawaii’s Big Island sometime next week, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
At 5 p.m., Hector was 1,900 miles east-southwest of Hilo and 1,408 miles west-southwest of San Diego, headed west at 13 mph packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center.
If Hector remains on its current course, it’s forecast to keep heading due west for the next three days, peaking as a Category 4 hurricane, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts, still way off shore, east-southeast of Hilo.
Too early to say how close it might come and how Hawaii might be impacted, but it’s definitely something to watch for in the coming days. Stay tuned.