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Tropical Storm 08W (Conson), # 9 FINAL

6:30 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 13, Japan time: Conson's demise appears imminent. Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports the tropical storm has picked up forward speed, heading north-northwest at 23 mph, has peaked at 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts and is about to hit sharply cooler waters and its eventual terminus in the next day or so. This is PST's final update on Conson.


12:15 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 13, Japan time: Tropical Storm Conson's forecast track continues to edge ever so slightly west ... still well away from Japan's east coast, but close enough for Joint Typhoon Warning Center to add a closest point of approach to Narita International Airport.

Conson is tracking north-northwest at 14 mph. JTWC projects Conson's track to bend northwest over the next couple of days, passing some 440 miles east-northeast of Narita at about 10 p.m. Sunday and 300 miles northeast of Misawa Air Base about eight hours later.

Conson is projected to remain a middling tropical storm, peaking at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center as it rumbles by. Should make for a breezy end ot the weekend and start of the week.


11:30 a.m. Friday, Aug. 12, Japan time: Tropical Storm Conson is forecast to intensify slightly, peaking at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts from early morning Saturday into Sunday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. And though Conson is projected to remain well off Japan's east coast, the forecast track does take it somewhat closer than previous tracks, but still 345 miles northeast of Misawa Air Base early Monday morning. Still much ado about little. PST is watching.


9:45 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 11, Japan time: Tropical Storm Conson's track has shifted northeast, and its Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for it to peak at even weaker winds than previously projected, 52-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts through much of Saturday.


Noon Thursday, Aug. 11, Japan time: Now, it looks as if Tropical Storm Conson won't intensify into even a Category 1-equivalent typhoon at this point, if the latest from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is an indicator. It's forecast to peak at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at mid-evening Friday, still more than 2,000 miles east-southeast of Okinawa and no threat to any land mass at the moment. PST will continue to keep watch.


12:30 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 10, Japan time: Fairly clear, at this point, that Tropical Storm Conson should pass well east of Japan in the coming days, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Conson remains more than 2,000 miles east of Okinawa. According to JTWC's  latest update, Conson should peak at 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at about 9 p.m. Thursday and remain a Category 1-equivalent typhoon for a day or so.

JTWC projects Conson to pass 620 miles east-northeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at mid-morning Sunday, then continue tracking north toward the Kurile Islands northeast of Hokkaido. Things can change, so PST will keep an eyeball on things.


12:15 p.m. Tuesday, July 9, Japan time: Which way will it go?

That's the puzzling question regarding Conson, which was upgraded overnight to a tropical storm. At 9 a.m., Conson was about 2,200 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, meandering west-southwest at 7 mph.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track has Conson bending around to the north for a couple of days later this week, peaking at 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at mid-morning Friday.

But the questions loom from there. Dynamic model guidance remains all over the place, considering Conson is but one day old. Some models take Conson into northeastern Japan, others have it curving northeast away from Japan.

It's wait and see at this point.


6:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 8, Japan time: A new tropical depression has spawned some 400 miles west-southwest of the Wake Island group. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's initial track projects 08W's path to mirror that of Omais, currently tracking east of Japan.

08W is forecast to peak at 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Thursday, Category 1-equivalent strength. But it should still be well out at sea at that point. And it's way too early to definitively pinpoint its precise path. PST has an eye on it.

If it becomes a named storm, 08W will be called Conson, Vietnamese for an historic place.

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About the Author


Dave Ornauer has been with Stars and Stripes since March 5, 1981. One of his first assignments as a beat reporter in the old Japan News Bureau was “typhoon chaser,” a task which he resumed virtually full time since 2004, the year after his job, as a sports writer-photographer, moved to Okinawa and Ornauer with it.

As a typhoon reporter, Ornauer pores over Web sites managed by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as well as U.S. government, military and local weather outlets for timely, topical information. Pacific Storm Tracker is designed to take the technical lingo published on those sites and simplify it for the average Stripes reader.