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Hurricanes 14E (Madeline), 13E (Lester), # 10

Madeline still on course to knife between Maui, Big Island; may have company in Lester behind it.<br>NOAA.gov
Madeline still on course to knife between Maui, Big Island; may have company in Lester behind it.

Midnight Tuesday, Aug. 30, Hawaii time: The news gets slightly worse for Hawaii as Hurricane Madeline is projected to edge closer to the Big Island to its south and Lester to remain a hurricane even after it passes the 50th State to the north.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Madeline, 270 miles east of Hilo and tracking west at 12 mph, is due to pass 67 miles south of Hilo at 6 p.m. Wednesday as a Category 1 hurricane, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Big Island.

Lester, about 920 miles east of Madeline, continues tracking west at 12 mph and has increased in intensity back to Category 4 strength, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center. Lester is on track to pass just 85 miles north of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu at 2 a.m. Sunday, packing winds similar to Madeline’s as it passes.

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Noon Tuesday, Aug. 30, Hawaii time: Hurricanes Madeline and Lester are still forecast to remain strong while east of Hawaii, then diminish as they approach the islands, Madeline south of Hawaii on Wednesday, and Lester north into Labor Day weekend.

No direct hits are currently forecast. Madeine is due to pass 77 miles south of Hilo on the Big Island at about 9 p.m. Wednesday packing sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts at center. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Big Island and a tropical storm watch for Maui.

If Lester remains on current course, it’s due to pass 154 miles northeast of Hilo at noon Saturday and 102 miles northeast of Camp H.M. Smith at 3 a.m. Sunday as a Category 1 hurricane.


2 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 30, Hawaii time: Madeline appears as if it will maintain Category 1 hurricane strength as it passes the Hawaiian Islands, instead of diminishing before reaching Oahu as PST previously reported.

Madeline was about 550 miles east of Hilo on the Big Island at midnight, still as a Category 3 hurricane, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center.

If it remains on its current track, Madeline is forecast to pass just 85 miles south of Hilo at 10 p.m. Wednesday, having diminished some, but still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center.

It’s forecast to remain a Category 1 storm, 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it rumbles 215 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu, at 5 p.m. Thursday.

Lester continues to lag behind, about 1,470 miles east of Hilo at midnight, churning west at 14 mph and still on track to curve slightly north of the Hawaiian islands over the weekend, as a Category 1 hurricane or a severe tropical storm.

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Noon Monday, Aug. 28, Hawaii time: While Madeline remains on track to pass south of the Hawaiian islands, it continues picking up intensity and is forecast to peak as a Category 4 hurricane by Tuesday evening, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

At 8 a.m., Madeline was about 660 miles east-southeast of Hilo on the Big Island, moving west-northwest at 10 mph. If it remains on its current course, Madeline should remain a Category 1 hurricane as it roars 100 miles south of Hilo at 9 p.m. Wednesday and about 240 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu 21 hours later.

Hurricane Lester remains in trail, several hundred miles east and continuing to make a beeline west as a Category 4 hurricane, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center. CPHC and National Hurricane Center projections show Lester making an arc just north of the Big Island and Oahu.
 


Midnight Sunday, Aug. 28, Hawaii time: Madeline has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane and is forecast to intensify slightly to a Category 2 storm at peak, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at 8 p.m. Monday.

But it’s still on course to miss the Big Island and U.S. bases on Oahu to the south, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center report: 85 miles south of Hilo at 8 p.m. Wednesday, still as a Category 1 hurricane, and 245 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu 12 hours later.

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1:30 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 28, Hawaii time: Could be we have one tropical cyclone pass south and another pass north of Hawaii, if the latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center forecast tracks are any indicators.

If it stays on present course, Madeline is forecast to become a hurricane briefly on Monday, then degrade into a severe tropical storm and pass about 60 miles south of Hilo on the Big Island at 10 p.m. Wednesday and 216 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu 12 hours later, still packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center.

Lester, much further east, is another matter. It remains a Category 1 hurricane, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts and making a beeline due west. It’s forecast to start curving northwest on approach to the Big Island; whether it misses Hawaii remains to be seen. Stay tuned. PST is on it.


7 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 27, Hawaii time: Little change save for the latest forecast track taking Tropical Storm Madeline further south of Oahu and Hilo than previously projected.

If it remains on its current course, Madeline is forecast to pass 24 miles south of Hilo at 9 p.m. Wednesday and 167 miles south of Camp H.M. Smith 12 hours later, still as a significant tropical storm, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center.


12:45 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 27, Hawaii time: Welcome to the Madeline and Lester Show, where one tropical cyclone continues on course to slice its way between Maui and the Big Island by mid-week next week, and another may be right on its heels.

 

Madeline remains on a northwest track, at 10 mph, and continues picking up steam, currently 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts. It’s forecast to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane by 8 a.m. Sunday, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

If it remains on its current path, expect Madeline to curl 40 miles north of Hilo at about 10 p.m. Wednesday then about 116 miles southeast of Camp H.M. Smith on Oahu about 10 hours later, still as a severe tropical storm, packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts. PST remains on top of it.

Trailing Madeline by about 1,000 miles east is Hurricane Lester, which is currently on a westerly path at 12 mph, just past Clarion Island, and also headed in Hawaii’s general direction.
 


12:45 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 27, Hawaii time:

Looks like Hawaii’s going to have some blustery company by the middle of next week.

Tropical Storm Madeline continues on a northwest trajectory, but is forecast to make a left turn and make a beeline between the Big Island and Maui sometime Wednesday into Thursday, as a severe tropical storm, and perhaps not the hurricane that Hawaii hasn’t seen in 23 years.

The latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center track shows Madeline arcing 55 miles north of Hilo on the Big Island and 193 miles east of Camp H.M. Smith on the principal island of Oahu around 8 p.m. Wednesday, still packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts. Just below Category 1 strength.

PST is watching.

 

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9 p.m. Friday, Aug. 26, Hawaii time: A new tropical storm has spawned and appears to be putting Hawaii’s Big Island in its sights by the middle of next week.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s latest forecast track puts as-net-unnamed 14E 105 miles east of Hilo as a severe tropical storm, packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts and headed west. More as this new storm develops.
 

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About the Author


Dave Ornauer has been with Stars and Stripes since March 5, 1981. One of his first assignments as a beat reporter in the old Japan News Bureau was “typhoon chaser,” a task which he resumed virtually full time since 2004, the year after his job, as a sports writer-photographer, moved to Okinawa and Ornauer with it.

As a typhoon reporter, Ornauer pores over Web sites managed by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as well as U.S. government, military and local weather outlets for timely, topical information. Pacific Storm Tracker is designed to take the technical lingo published on those sites and simplify it for the average Stripes reader.