Thursday, January 18, 2001

By Patrick Cole
Chicago Tribune

NEW YORK—Ten years after allied troops defeated Iraqi forces in Operation Desert Storm, one of the major concerns of the war, the existence of Iraqi chemical and biological weapons, remains unresolved.

A defiant President Saddam Hussein has succeeded in keeping UN inspectors out of his weapons facilities since he threw them out two years ago. And since 1998, there has been little dialogue between the United Nations and Iraqi diplomats on the issue of weapons inspections, UN officials say.

But Iraqi officials are scheduled to meet UN Secretary General Kofi Annan next month to talk about a solution to the impasse.

Progress also has been stalled because of uncertainty over how the incoming Bush administration will deal with Iraq. Many of President-elect George W. Bush’s top advisers, including Colin Powell and Dick Cheney, were architects of the Persian Gulf war and have indicated that the Bush administration may adopt a tougher line against Iraq.

Since September, a new team of weapons inspectors has been preparing to resume inspections, but they aren’t sure when their work will begin, said Hans Blix, head of the United Nations Monitoring and Verification and Inspection Commission that will oversee the process.

"If the Iraqis (approved) the inspection today, we would be ready to send in people," said Blix, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who came out of retirement to head the new UN commission, UNMOVIC.

At the crux of the controversy is a 1999 UN resolution specifying that sanctions against Iraq would be suspended once it proved it had dismantled its chemical and biological weapons-making abilities. Iraq rejected that condition, saying sanctions must be lifted before it let more UN inspectors into the country.

"Iraq has been subjected to unprecedented injustice by the Security Council," Iraq’s former UN envoy Saeed Hasan said last year.

"Nobody now can challenge the fact that comprehensive sanctions is tantamount to genocide."

Hasan maintained that if the UN tried to send its inspectors to Baghdad, "we will not let them in. We will not give them visas. It’s as simple as that."

Meanwhile, hundreds of facilities in Iraq have not been inspected since December 1998, when Iraq ordered the former weapons inspection team—called UNSCOM—to leave the country amid allegations it was spying for the CIA.

Blix declined to speculate on whether Hussein has rebuilt his weapons program since the hiatus. But more than 100 sites in Iraq have not been inspected since the hiatus.

"We know that Saddam had been making anthrax and many other unpleasant chemicals," Blix said.

Anthony Cordesman, a strategic affairs expert at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Iraq likely has begun rebuilding its arsenal in the last decade. Many experts think the stalemate over the weapons inspection issue will continue indefinitely.

"I see no easy resolution to this," said Gary Sick, acting director of Columbia University’s Middle East Institute. "Obviously, the Iraqis are trying to use the inspection regime as a bargaining chip and say, ‘We’ll let the inspectors in at least in principal if the sanctions are lifted.’ I’m not at all optimistic that a bargain can be struck that would be acceptable to the UN (Security Council) or to UNMOVIC."

The UN has been mired in a tug of war with Iraq since the end of the gulf war. Although UNSCOM, formed in 1991, succeeded in finding and destroying Iraqi missiles and facilities, Hussein was able to hide the full extent of its weapons-making operations.

That led to a near confrontation in early 1998 when Iraq denied UN inspectors access to several facilities. U.S. military airplanes were poised to strike targets in Iraq until Annan intervened to work out a compromise.

The inspection process collapsed again in December 1998 when then-UNSCOM executive director Richard Butler submitted findings to the Security Council showing that Iraq had concealed the truth about its weapons.

Iraq charged at that time that the CIA had used UNSCOM as a cover to spy on military installations after press reports surfaced, quoting former UNSCOM head Scott Ritter. Butler denied any knowledge of espionage attempts while he led UNSCOM.

Iraq expelled all UNSCOM inspectors from the country and President Clinton ordered U.S. planes to bomb targets in country in retaliation.

While bombing missions have continued intermittently, there have been no more inspections.

"The biggest problem is that the UN does not trust Iraq, and Iraq does not trust the UN," said a Western diplomat familiar with the issue. "People say the Iraqis cheated the system, and so (Hussein) has to be very hard in his position. But the UN tried to cheat. With a lack of trust, it’s difficult to see how this collaboration can work."

Blix said the new weapons inspection team is composed of scientists from around the world, including South America, Thailand, Bangladesh and Eastern Europe. Many have taken a four-week training course that covers the historical and cultural background of Iraq and the legal and political aspects of weapons inspection. They also receive specialized training on ballistic missiles and biological and chemical weapons.

"We are trying to place ourselves as far out on the launching pad as we can without making a huge financial commitment," Blix said.

Once the new team of inspectors gets the nod to go to Iraq, the main challenge it faces is surveying more than 300 sites throughout the country for weapons, Blix said. The major areas to be searched include Baghdad, the capital, and the northern city of Mosul, he said.

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