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Hurricane 09E (Guillermo), # 5

12:45 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Hawaii time: Guillermo continues heading northwest in Hawaii’s general direction, and the latest forecast track takes it even closer to the islands than previously forecast, as a fairly strong tropical storm, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10 p.m., Guillermo was about 960 miles east-southeast (100 degrees) of Hilo on the Big Island, tracking west-northwest (280 degrees) at 15 mph.

Typhoon 13W (Soudelor), # 12

11:15 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Guam time: Typhoon Soudelor is on course to make a direct hit on Saipan, the eye crossing the island as the calendar flips from Sunday to Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian, while Rota remains under a tropical storm warning. Things should start calming down late Monday. Tropical storm-force winds extend 100 miles north of center and 60 miles south.


6:15 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Guam time: Saipan and Tinian are bracing for a blustery, wet Sunday evening as Typhoon Soudelor continues tracking toward the Marianas Islands, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Weather Service on Guam.

At 5 p.m., Soudelor was 60 miles east-southeast of Saipan and 70 miles east-southeast of Tinian, moving almost due-west at 17 mph, on course to pass almost directly over Saipan and 13 miles northeast of Tinian between 10 and 11 p.m. Sunday, packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mph gusts.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian, while Rota remains under a tropical storm warning. Soudelor is forecast to rumble about 80 miles northeast of Rota at about 10 p.m. Sunday. No watches or warnings are in effect for Guam; Soudelor should pass 120 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, also at about 10 p.m.

Soudelor is projected to assume a northwesterly track as it exits the Marianas on Monday, still on course to track in the general direction of Taiwan and Japan’s southwestern Yaeyama Islands. JTWC forecasts Soudelor to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Wednesday, then track 265 miles southwest of Okinawa early Friday morning Japan time.


5 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Guam time: Soudelor strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon late Sunday afternoon as it closed in on the main Marianas Islands, 60 miles east of Saipan and 70 miles east of Tinian as of 5 p.m. Sunday. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian and a tropical-storm warning for Rota.


1:15 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Guam time: Soudelor remains a tropical storm for now, but is forecast to intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon just as it passes Saipan late Sunday evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10 a.m., Soudelor was 170 miles east-southeast of Saipan, tracking west-northwest at 17 mph. If it remains on its forecast track, Soudelor should pass about 7 miles northeast of Saipan and 24 miles northeast of Tinian at 10 p.m. Sunday, packing sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts at center.

Saipan and Tinian each remain under a typhoon warning, while Rota is now under a tropical storm warning and Guam is under a small-craft advisory, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Tropical storm-force winds extend 90 miles north of center and 75 miles south.

Guam can expect westerly winds between 20 and 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, turning southwesterly into Monday, NWS reported.

Dynamic model guidance remains in good agreement in the later term, Soudelor continuing to track west-northwest toward Japan’s southwestern Yaeyama Islands and in Taiwan’s general direction.

JTWC projects Soudelor to track 250 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at about 4 a.m. Friday, packing sustained 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at storm’s center Thursday evening.

Shogunweather.com, Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site, continues to project the heavy stuff to start Wednesday evening into Thursday, sustained easterly 34-mph winds and 48- to 53-mph gusts plus a 40-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.


9:40 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, Guam time: Soudelor continues on an almost due west track. Saipan can expect a near-direct hit, just as Soudelor is forecast to strengthen into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon Sunday afternoon into the evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 8 a.m., Soudelor was about 230 miles east-southeast of Saipan, or 320 miles east-southeast of Guam, moving west at 11 mph. If it remains on its JTWC forecast track, Soudelor is due to rumble 12 miles northeast of Saipan and 26 miles northeast of Tinian, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at its center.

Saipan and Tinian remain under a typhoon warning, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

In the extended term, Soudelor remains on track toward west-northwest toward Japan’s southwestern Yaeyama islands and in the general direction of Taiwan; dynamic model guidance remains in good agreement on the forecast track, JTWC reports. Soudelor should pass some 270 miles south-southwest of Okinawa late Thursday evening.

The extended weather forecast at Shogunweather.com, Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site, calls for  winds to start picking up Wednesday afternoon and evening, 18-mph easterly winds and 24- to 29-mph gusts. Thursday should see 25-mph easterly winds and 35- to 44-mph gusts, increasing to 34-mph sustained winds and 48- to 53-mph gusts into the evening.

On another note, JTWC early Sunday morning issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on a disturbance about 540 miles southeast of Tokyo. PST will keep an eye on it for further development in the coming hours.


Tropical Depression 01C (Halola), # 60 FINAL

Sasebo issues TCCOR Storm Watch; Halola deteriorating, forecast to track just east of Sasebo as tropical depression.

10 p.m. Sunday, July 26, Japan time: Halola was downgraded to a tropical depression Sunday evening by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, has already passed Sasebo Naval Base, losing its punch every step of the way. JTWC projects Halola to pass 36 miles northwest of Iwakuni at 5 a.m. Monday, then dissipate Monday evening over Japan’s Kansai region near Kyoto. Expect Sasebo and Iwakuni to issue seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 in the coming hours. PST will keep an eye on Halola for any signs of regeneration; otherwise, this is PST’s final post regarding Halola.


4:30 p.m. Sunday, July 26, Japan time: Halola continues to rapidly lose its punch as it begins its forecast northeast curve, 22 miles east of Sasebo Naval Base at about 6 p.m. Sunday, carrying sustained 35-mph winds and 46 mph gusts.

Tropical Storm 11W (Nangka), # 42 FINAL UPDATED

Typhoon Nangka is shown in this RGB satellite image taken July 15, 2015.

2:30 p.m. Friday, July 17, Japan time: Nangka has been downgraded to a tropical storm after making landfall over southeastern Shikoku early Friday morning, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.  Nangka has begun dying out. Once back over the Sea of Japan (East Sea), it should turn rapidly northeast and dissipate southeast of Hokkaido. Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch was lifted for Sasebo Naval Base at 9 a.m. and  Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at 1 p.m.. Unless something changes, this should be the final update on Nangka.


6 p.m. Thursday, July 16, Japan time: Nangka is rapidly losing its power as it tracks north toward projected landfall over southeastern Kyushu about 1 to 2 a.m. Friday. It barely remains a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, tracking at 10 mph and now forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass some 97 miles east of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni around 7 a.m.

Typhoon 10W (Linfa), #21 FINAL

Philippines satellite image

6:15 a.m. Friday, July 10, Hong Kong time: Tropical Storm Linfa has crested past Hong Kong and appears as if it will dissipate over southeastern China and not even reach Hainan island, as previously forecast. Unless some drastic changes occur, PST takes leave of Linfa.


4:45 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Hong Kong time: Linfa has been downgraded to a tropical storm and has made landfall over southeastern China, but is still packing a powerful punch

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Linfa to track 27 miles north of Hong Kong at about 9 p.m., still packing a rather large wallop, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at its center.

Linfa is then projected to continue southwest, diminishing into a tropical depression as it passes over Hainan island at mid-afternoon Saturday.


Typhoon 09W (Chan-hom), # 51 FINAL

11 a.m. Sunday, July 12, Korea time: Chan-hom has entered the Yellow Sea (West Sea), moving away from China and diminishing rapidly as it makes its way toward projected landfall just northwest of Korea’s Demilitarized Zone early Monday morning.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Chan-hom to pass 75 miles west of Kunsan Air Base, 64 miles west of Camp Humphreys, 61 miles west of Osan Air Base, 48 miles west-northwest of Yongsan Garrison and 44 miles northwest of Camp Red Cloud between 9 p.m. Sunday and 3 a.m. Monday.

Okinawa enters seasonal TCCOR 4

4 p.m. Monday, June 1, Japan time:U.S. bases on Okinawa were placed in season Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 as of 12:01 a.m. today, and will remain in TCCOR 4 as a matter of routine through Nov. 30.

That’s mainly due to the island’s location, very close to the Northwest Pacific Basin, which contains some of the warmest ocean content in the world and where tropical cyclones can sometimes form with very little advance warning.

At this writing, no tropical disturbances are at work in the northwest Pacific. But there’s no time like now to check your closet to see if you have the goods needed to ride out tropical cyclones. Enough non-perishable food and bottled water to last three days. Food for your furry friends. Diapers for the young’uns. A portable radio, flashlight and batteries.

When a storm does form up and head this way, most important to not pay attention to the rumor mill, but listen to official channels such as AFN, your base commanders’ access channels and Facebook pages and Twitter feeds. PST, of course, will do its best to keep the populace informed as well.

Typhoon 07W (Dolphin), # 17 FINAL

Typhoon Dolphin is seen near Guam in this RGB satellite image taken Friday, May 15, 2015.

Noon Saturday, May 16, Guam time: With the possible exception of Iwo Jima, Typhoon Dolphin should not be bothering any major land masses as it curves north and east over the next several days. GovGuam declared Condition of Readiness 4 at 9 a.m. and recovery efforts continue on the island. All watches and warnings have been canceled for the Marianas. Unless something changes drastically, Storm Tracker now takes leave of Dolphin.

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Tropical Storm 06W (Noul), # 27

Typhoon Noul appears in this false-color satellite image taken May 11, 2015.

1:30 p.m. Tuesday, May 12, Japan time: Noul has been downgraded to a tropical storm, is rapidly picking up forward speed and should be in and out of the Kanto area rather quickly on Wednesday. It’s forecast to make landfall over the southern Kansai area around mid-afternoon Tuesday, then blast through the central Kanto area about midnight Tuesday as a cold-core low. Still pretty windy and rainy, 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts, but not nearly what we’d feared earlier.

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Tropical Depressions 04W, 05W (Maysak, Haishen), # 11 FINAL

Typhoon Mayask trajectory.

3 p.m. Monday, April 6, Philippines time: Maysak diminished as it crossed north-central Luzon island on Easter Sunday and is now dying out over the South China Sea, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center posted early this morning in its final bulletin on Maysak. Hundreds of miles east-southeast, Haishen remains on a quasi-stationary trajectory and is forecast to creep northwest. But it’s in an area of high vertical wind shear, which tropical weather systems of any sort do not like, and is also forecast to dissipate well before reaching land. Unless there’s a drastic change to either system, PST takes leave of them.

 


 

5 p.m. Sunday, April 5, Philippines time: It’s a rainy, blustery Easter Sunday in north-central Luzon as Tropical Storm Maysak makes its way across the Philippines’ northernmost island, losing strength every step of the way, maintaining 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts as it makes its way northwest at 11 mph. Maysak is forecast to exit Luzon sometime early Sunday evening. All Public Storm Warning Signals have been canceled, according to the Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA Web site.

 
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About the Author


Dave Ornauer has been with Stars and Stripes since March 5, 1981. One of his first assignments as a beat reporter in the old Japan News Bureau was “typhoon chaser,” a task which he resumed virtually full time since 2004, the year after his job, as a sports writer-photographer, moved to Okinawa and Ornauer with it.

As a typhoon reporter, Ornauer pores over Web sites managed by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as well as U.S. government, military and local weather outlets for timely, topical information. Pacific Storm Tracker is designed to take the technical lingo published on those sites and simplify it for the average Stripes reader.