5:45 p.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: Little change except in forecast intensity. Joint Typhoon Warning Center now projects Nangka to peak at 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Wednesday and remain a super typhoon – the fourth so far this season – for about two days as it approaches Iwo Jima.
Nangka is still forecast to make a northerly turn around mid-afternoon Saturday, on a course that would appear to take it straight at or just east of the island. A typhoon watch remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the northern Marianas islands.
1 p.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: While Chan-hom apparently might not become the fourth super typhoon of the season, Typhoon Nangka just might, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.
Some 700 miles east of Guam as of noon Japan time, Nangka is headed west-northwest at 13 mph. A typhoon watch is in effect for three sparsely populated Northern Marianas islands, Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.
As Nangka moves west-northwest, it’s forecast to peak at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at mid-morning Thursday Japan time and maintain that intensity for at least a day. That would make the fourth Category 5-equivalent super typhoon of what’s already been a busy season.
By the weekend, Nangka is forecast to turn north, on an apparent course to pass just east of Iwo Jima sometime Monday. Too early to say how close, or whether Nangka will continue north toward the Kanto Plain or turn northeast and remain over open water.
10 a.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: Typhoon Nangka is intensifying and its Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track shows it curving toward Iwo Jima by week’s end. Nangka should reach peak intensity of 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts by mid-morning Thursday, but should start weakening as it curves north toward the end of the week. JTWC projects Nangka to be 153 miles south-southeast of Iwo Jima at about 3 a.m. Sunday, but long-range uncertainty remains among the forecast models.
5:30 p.m. Monday, July 6, Japan time: Nangka has intensified into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it makes its way west-northwest, north of the Micronesian island chain. At 3 p.m. Monday, Nangka was packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mph gusts. It should continue intensifying as it moves northwest.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Nangka to come within 207 miles south of Iwo Jima at mid-afternoon Saturday, packing sustained 138-mph winds and 167-mph gusts at its center.
Much too soon to say at this point whether Iwo, Japan’s main islands or Okinawa might feel Nangka’s effects. The Marianas should be safely out of the way; closest point of approach to Andersen Air Force Base on Guam should be 330 miles northeast at about 9 a.m. Wednesday.
8 p.m. Sunday, July 5, Guam time: PST hasn’t forgotten about Tropical Storm Nangka; it’s more than just a few days away from any significant land masses.
Right now. Nangka is traveling due west, exiting the Marshall Islands and entering Micronesia, about 115 miles east of Enewetak Atoll as of 3 p.m.
It’s packing sustained 58-mph winds and 75-mph gusts, and is forecast to arc west northwest, coming within 238 miles south-southeast of Iwo Jima at about 3 p.m. Friday, Japan time, packing 120-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at its center.
Too soon to say whether it will threaten Japan, Okinawa or other land masses; it’s simply too far east and Nangka is just two days old. Much could change in the coming days.
1 p.m. Saturday, July 4, Guam time: Though still in its infancy, Nangka wasted little time intensifying into a tropical storm, and has begun a steady march west-northwest through the Marshall Islands toward Micronesia, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track. For the moment, the Marianas Islands appear safe; Nangka is projected to pass 265 miles northeast of Saipan, at which point it’s forecast to be packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at its center as it moves in the general direction of Iwo Jima. PST will keep an eye on this.
1:15 a.m. Saturday, July 4, Guam time: Tropical Depression 11W didn’t take very long to take shape. It’s tracking west-northwest at 6 mph about 275 east of Kwajalein atoll. Unlike the other two active tropical cyclones, this one doesn’t appear at the moment to be a threat to any major land masses. 11W is forecast to intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon sometime Tuesday evening and head in the general direction of Iwo Jima. If it does become a named storm, it will be called Nangka, Malaysian for jackfruit.
4 p.m. Friday, July 3, Guam time: Yet another tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, this time on a disturbance in the Marshall Islands, the same area where current Tropical Storm Chan-hom developed earlier this week. PST will keep an eye on this one as well as the other two.
Stay safe and informed
About the Author
Dave Ornauer has been with Stars and Stripes since March 5, 1981. One of his first assignments as a beat reporter in the old Japan News Bureau was “typhoon chaser,” a task which he resumed virtually full time since 2004, the year after his job, as a sports writer-photographer, moved to Okinawa and Ornauer with it.
As a typhoon reporter, Ornauer pores over Web sites managed by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as well as U.S. government, military and local weather outlets for timely, topical information. Pacific Storm Tracker is designed to take the technical lingo published on those sites and simplify it for the average Stripes reader.