Typhoon 17W (Sanba), # 19
Published: September 15, 2012
8 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: OK, now we’re at Sanba’s mercy. No scientific formula to determine EXACTLY when we move off of Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 into 1-C or 1-E. It all depends on how soon we experience SUSTAINED 40-mph winds (1-C) and 58-mph winds (1-E).
That said, Kadena remains in TCCOR 1, while Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan and all Area IV installations in Daegu, Chinhae and Pusan, South Korea, remain in TCCOR 3. Expect those to change in very short order as Sanba Sambas further north.
Kadena has already been feeling 25-mph winds and 41-mph gusts. Ginowan, near Camp Foster and Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, reported a 43-mph gust.
It’s bound to get worse before it gets better, folks. This is a very well-organized storm, with deep convective banding and a very well-defined eye about 29 miles wide. The eye will pass about 14 miles east of Kadena at about 5 a.m., during which time one might note that the winds and rain have ceased and the dawn coming up like thunder (although your eardrums might feel like they do when you’re on a commercial jet). Again, avoid any and all temptation to go outside. The back-side winds, in the opposite direction and likely more fierce than before, will kick in at any time.
Latest wind timeline courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Sustained 35-mph winds, 8 p.m. Saturday.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds, 10 p.m. Saturday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds, 2 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 115-mph sustained winds, 144-mph gusts, 5 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 58 mph, 2 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 40 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 35 mph, 9 p.m. Sunday.
I would count on a rather lengthy TCCOR 1-R (recovery) period. These Category 3-equivalent winds we’ll get early Sunday morning are no joke.
Sasebo is bracing for 35- to 45-mph sustained winds and 60-mph gusts overnight Sunday into Monday; Sanba is forecast to roll 96 miles west of Sasebo at 6 a.m. Monday, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at its center.
Looks like Daegu is square in Sanba’s crosshairs after it skirts past Kyushu. Sanba is forecast to visit Area IV around 2 p.m. Monday, no longer a typhoon but still carrying a serious punch, 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts, severe tropical-storm strength. Then, off to the Sea of Japan (or East Sea) Sanba will Samba, exiting the Korean peninsula near Kangnung and off to the races.