Typhoon 16W (Bolaven), # 11: TCCOR 2 issued for Okinawa
Published: August 24, 2012
2:25 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 25, Japan time: Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 at 2:20 a.m.
Typhoon Bolaven’s forward speed has slowed to just 6 mph northwest, about 450 miles southeast of Okinawa. That’s not good; means the storm is nourishing itself with warm sea-surface temperatures that Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts say will strengthen it to near Category 5-equivalent status.
That will mean sustained 150-mph winds and 185-mph gusts at its center for about 24 hours as it makes its way toward Okinawa, fat and monstrous, with closest point of approach forecast for 15 miles north of Kadena Air Base at 6 p.m. Sunday.
Needless to say, expect upgraded Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness as this thing approaches, with a lengthy lockdown that at this point could last from midnight Saturday to 2 p.m. Monday.
Here’s the latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
Sustained 40-mph winds – 6 a.m. Saturday.
Sustained 58-mph winds – midnight Saturday.
Maximum 144-mph winds and 178-mph gusts, 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. Sunday.
Winds diminishing below 58 mph – 2 p.m. Monday.
Winds diminishing below 40 mph – 7 p.m. Monday.
Winds diminishing below 35 mph – 9 p.m. Monday.
I can’t emphasize enough: This one is a bad one. Okinawa could potentially take a pounding as bad as it’s seen since Typhoon Bart in 1999, whose winds were equal to those forecast by Kadena’s weather flight this time.
Korea’s west coast continues to remain in Bolaven’s crosshairs once it departs Okinawa. U.S. Army Garrison Yongsan officials say forecasts call for wind gusts exceeding 58 mph and between 6 to 12 inches of rain as it skirts Korea’s west coast Monday and Tuesday.
For more, stay with PST or tune in to AFN Korea TV, visit your garrison command’s official or Facebook Web pages.