Typhoon 08W (Ma-on), # 15 UPDATED 4 p.m. Monday
Published: July 17, 2011
4 p.m. Monday, July 18, Japan time: Typhoon Ma-on seems to be losing intensity as it tracks north away from Okinawa. Closest point of approach is 331 miles east-northeast at 2 p.m., but we're only seeing sustained 104-mph winds and gusts to 127; earlier forecasts projected peak gusts of 155 mph, which we've not seen.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center does project Ma-on to intensify as it heads north toward Sasebo Naval Base and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, one reason why each base set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-3, Sasebo on Sunday morning and Iwakuni on Sunday evening. Yokosuka Naval Base entered TCCOR-3 at 3:45 p.m. Monday.
Okinawa can expect maximum 46-mph gusts between 3 and 6 p.m. Monday, with 35-mph winds or greater forecasted until 9 a.m. Tuesday. No accelerated tropical cyclone conditions of readiness are expected.
For the rest of the bases on Ma-on's itinerary:
-- Kanto Plain area: Ma-on appears as if it will track even further south than earlier forecast. Closest points of approach 99 miles south-southeast of Camp Fuji at midnight Wednesday, 120 miles southeast of Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi at 7 a.m. Thursday, 132 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base at 7 a.m. Thursday and 104 miles south of Yokosuka Naval Base at 8 a.m. Thursday. It should still be packing 80-mph sustained winds and 100-mph gusts. Local forecasts continue to call for winds picking up to between 18 and 23 mph with gusts up to 30 mph by Tuesday evening.
-- Sasebo Naval Base: Closest point of approach now is 219 miles east-southeast at 4 p.m. Tuesday, at which point it will be packing sustained 115-mph winds and 138-mph gusts at its center. Sasebo should be well shielded by mountains to its north and east; however, local forecasts still call for easterly and northeasterly winds, gusts up to 40 mph Monday evening, winds between 30 and 35 mph with peak gusts up to 50 mph late Tuesday morning, diminishing to between 25 and 30 with gusts up to 40 by evening, then shifting to north-northwest and diminishing to 30-mph gusts by Wednesday evening.
-- Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni: TCCOR-3 was issued at 9 p.m. Sunday. Closest point of approach is 153 miles southeast at midnight Tuesday, at which point it will be packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts. Local forecasts call for thunderstorms and east-northeasterly winds up to 35 mph on Tuesday, changing to north-northwest and up to 43 mph on Wednesday.
Next update around midnight Monday. Stay safe in the meantime.
