Typhoon 05W (Guchol), # 28A: Fare thee well, Okinawa; Kansai, th'ar she blows!
Published: June 16, 2012
1:30 a.m. Tuesday, June 19, Japan time: Okinawa reverted to seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 1:02 a.m., Kadena Air Base officials announced.
12:30 a.m. Tuesday, June 19, Japan time: As my pal Stormy over at Fleet Activities Okinawa said last evening, Typhoon Guchol had potential. Movement of a half-degree left and it would have been a greatly different story for the island.
As it was, Okinawa took a relatively light dusting as Guchol roared 81 miles east-southeast of Okinawa at 10 p.m. Monday, raking the island with 37-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts; .7 inches of rain fell during its visit.
Though the worst appears to be over, Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 into Tuesday morning … in the (very, very, very) unlikely event Guchol decided it didn’t stay long enough. It’s currently churning north-northeast at 20 mph, carrying 132-mph gusts at its center – still a rather powerful Category 3 storm.
Guchol is forecast to barrel ashore near Kyoto at 9 p.m. Tuesday, still a very powerful tropical storm, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts. Yokosuka Naval Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi remain in TCCOR 3 until early Tuesday morning, when upgrade to TCCOR 2 is expected. The rest of the Kanto Plain remains in TCCOR 4.
How long Guchol will survive remains to be seen, as it must yet interact with the stationary monsoon front and the mountainous regions of Kansai and Shikoku, then cross Honshu into the Sea of Japan (Korea’s East Sea). What remains of Guchol – perhaps a strong extra-tropical low – is forecast to pass 147 miles north of Yokota Air Base, 155 miles north of Camp Zama and Atsugi and 177 miles north of Yokosuka at 3 a.m. Wednesday, and 113 miles north of Camp Fuji at 1 a.m. Wednesday. If it survives that long, Misawa Air Base is next up, 51 miles north at 5 p.m. Wednesday, 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts, though that’s far from likely.
Sasebo Naval Base (220 miles southeast at 2 p.m. Tuesday) and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni (144 miles southeast at 5 p.m. Tuesday) remain well out of danger and shielded, Sasebo by mountains to the north and Iwakuni by Shikoku’s mountains. Each remains in TCCOR Storm Watch, just as a precaution.
PST will also keep a sharp eye on Tropical Storm 06W (Talim) in the coming days.
10:15 p.m. Monday, June 18, Japan time: We still haven't entered TCCOR 1 Caution, and with occasional rain squalls and manageable winds out there, it looks like we either won't, or if we do, we likely won't see TCCOR 1 Emergency. Guchol is moving away rather rapidly. Question now is where it heads and where Tropical Storm Talim, to our southwest, decides to head. Still hanging fire, waiting to see what the 18th Wing Weather Flight and General Molloy decide to do.
6:30 p.m. Monday, June 18, Japan time: Call this a major detour that may spare the Kanto Plain of Typhoon Guchol’s wrath come Tuesday. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest warning calls for Guchol to deviate more than 100 miles west than previously forecast, over Kyoto in central Honshu.
For the moment, Yokosuka Naval Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, while the rest of the Kanto Plain remains in TCCOR 4.
As for Okinawa, it remained in TCCOR 1 at 6 p.m. Monday; TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 1-E (emergency) were to be issued later this evening. At 3 p.m., Guchol was moving north-northeast at 21 mph and diminishing in strength rapidly, down to 121 mph sustained and 150-mph gusts at its center, and forecast to pass Kadena Air Base 90 miles southeast at 9 p.m. The eye has already disappeared and the storm’s western quadrants appeared to be weakening, satellite looping and color radar imagery showed.
Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Onset of 35-mph winds: 6:30 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 7 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 9 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 58-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts, 10 p.m.-midnight Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 1 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 5 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 8 a.m. Monday.
Sasebo Naval Base (212 miles southeast at noon Tuesday) remains in TCCOR Storm Watch until 7 p.m. Tuesday. Forecasts call for north-northeasterly winds increasing to 25- to 35-mph sustained and 45-mph gusts by early afternoon, rapidly diminishing by evening. North-northeasterly winds are a good thing for Sasebo, which has natural shielding from typhoons to the north. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni is a bit closer, 137 miles southeast at 4 p.m. Tuesday, but will be shielded well by Shikoku island and Guchol’s winds will have diminished 80 mph sustained and 98-mph gusts. Iwakuni sits within Guchol’s 40-mph wind band.
Guchol is now forecast to make landfall around 9 p.m. Tuesday south of Kyoto in Japan’s Kansai region and push across Honshu into the Sea of Japan (Korea’s East Sea), well to the north of U.S. Forces Japan’s Kanto Plain bases, 191 miles northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, 169 miles northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 161 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base at 1 a.m. Wednesday, and 123 miles north of Camp Fuji at 11 p.m. Tuesday. Winds at its center will have diminished to 63 mph sustained and 80-mph gusts. Yokosuka forecasts still call for:
-- Southeasterly 18- to 23-mph sustained winds increasing to 23- to 28-mph sustained and 35-mph gusts, Tuesday evening overnight into Wednesday.
-- Southwesterly 45-to 55-mph sustained winds and 65-mph gusts early morning Wednesday, decreasing to 30- to 40-mph sustained winds and 50-moh gusts by afternoon and 20- to 25-mph sustained and 35-mph gusts by evening.
Cooler sea-surface temps and interaction with Honshu’s mountain ranges will continue shear Guchol apart as it makes its way northeast toward Misawa Air Base, passing 75 miles northwest at 11 a.m. Wednesday, still a moderate tropical storm, 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.
4:30 p.m. Monday, June 18, Japan time: Commander Fleet Activities Yokosuka in a Facebook page announcement says it expects to declare Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 at 6 a.m. Tuesday, based on current weather forecasts.
1 p.m. Monday, June 18, Japan time: Man, we just continue to sit on that fence, that 50-knot (58-mph) wind band, that netherworld between plain ol’ banana winds and the fierce kind of gusts that’ll turn even a butane tank into a dangerous moving object. As the theme song from the movie “The Producers” admonished us: “Hope for the best; expect the worst.”
Anywho, Typhoon Guchol continues to gradually diminish in strength, winds gusting to 161 mph – down from a peak 190 mph a day or so ago – at its center, and is forecast to rumble 85 miles east-southeast of Okinawa at 11 p.m. tonight.
Here’s the latest wind forecast timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Onset of 35-mph winds: Occurring.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 7 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 58-mph sustained winds, 86-mph gusts: 10 p.m.-midnight Monday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58 mph: 1 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40 mph: 5 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 35 mph: 8 a.m. Tuesday.
Not much change, as you can see, from the last timeline.
Up north, Yokosuka Naval Base remains in TCCOR 3. Forecasts call for:
-- Southeasterly winds 18-23 mph sustained, 35-mph gusts: Tuesday evening.
-- Northeasterly 23-28 mph sustained, 35-mph gusts: overnight Tuesday.
-- Northeasterly 45-55 mph sustained, 65 mph gusts : mid-morning Wednesday.
-- North-northwesterly 30-40 mph sustained, 50-mph gusts by noon.
-- 20-25 mph sustained, 35-mph gusts by evening.
Naval Air Facility Atsugi also remains in TCCOR 3; the rest of the Kanto Plain resides in TCCOR 4 for the moment. Guchol is forecast to skirt the south Honshu coast as a severe tropical storm, with 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at its center. Guchol should pass 5 miles south of Camp Fuji at 7 a.m. Wednesday, 21 miles north of Atsugi and Camp Zama, 43 miles north of Yokosuka and 15 miles south of Yokota Air Base at 9 a.m. Wednesday. About as strong as Typhoon Roke was last fall. And Roke was a nasty feller.
Sasebo Naval Base entered TCCOR Storm Watch this morning, very likely as a precaution should Guchol go rogue and head in that direction a la my hero Jack Bauer in Season 8 of 24.
I plead again with my Okinawa peepz: Once peak winds onset, resist the urge to go outside and do something dumb, like go watch the breakers at Bolo Point or try the waters at Maeda. All it takes is one rip current or slamming into a coral deposit just below the water’s surface and you’re as good as gone. As my other TV hero Cap’n Safety says: “You only get one chance.”
BTW, anybody here know Cap’n Safety’s real identity? *smile*
9:45 a.m. Monday, June 18, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 issued for Okinawa at 9:37 a.m. local time. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are expected within 12 hours.
8:30 a.m. Monday, June 18, Japan time: Latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center graphic shows Okinawa seated at the edge of the 50-knot windbands associated with Guchol, which was downgraded from super-typhoon status overnight Sunday.
Still, this is a wooly one, and Okinawa should experience some strong gusts Monday evening into early Tuesday. If you’ve not cleaned up outside your office and home, tied down or stored those loose objects and if you’ve not made that commissary run, make sure you do so before lockdown arrives.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Latest wind forecast timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing weather flight:
-- Onset of 35-mph winds: 11 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 2 p.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 7 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 58-mph sustained winds, 86-mph gusts: 10 p.m.-midnight Monday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58 mph: 1 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40 mph: 5 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 35 mph: 8 a.m. Tuesday.
Up north, Yokosuka Naval Base entered TCCOR 3 at 6 a.m., effective until 7 a.m. Tuesday. Yokosuka forecasts call for:
-- Southeasterly winds 18-23 mph sustained, 35-mph gusts: midday Tuesday.
-- Northeasterly 23-28 mph sustained, 35-mph gusts: overnight Tuesday.
-- Northeasterly 45-55 mph sustained, 65 mph gusts : mid-morning Wednesday.
-- North-northwesterly 30-40 mph sustained, 50-mph gusts by noon.
-- 20-25 mph sustained, 35-mph gusts by evening.
Naval Air Facility Atsugi entered TCCOR 3 at 8:30 a.m. Monday. Guchol should make landfall around midnight Tuesday, and roll through central Honshu, passing 30 miles north of Camp Fuji at 7 a.m. Wednesday, 54 miles north of Atsugi and Camp Zama at 9 a.m. and 43 miles north of Yokota and 75 miles north of Yokosuka at 10 a.m. Wednesday.
Same process up there as down here on Okinawa: Time to make that commissary run and clean up, store or tie down loose objects around the office or home. If you can pick it up, so can even a severe tropical storm like Guchol.
Stay safe, y’all!
6:35 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 issued for Okinawa at 6:35 p.m. local. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater now possible within 24 hours.
6:20 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Though a very powerful storm, Super Typhoon Guchol hasn’t developed into the uber-monster as earlier forecasts indicated, possibly a consequence of it moving so rapidly north-northwest. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough, but Guchol isn’t staying in one place long enough to sop up all the humidity and moisture that such nurturing waters have to offer.
As it is, Guchol is still forecast to roar past Okinawa packing Category 3- to 4-equivalent sustained winds (115 mph) and gusts (155 mph) at its center. But with the closest point of approach forecast for 76 miles southeast at around 10 p.m. Monday, that means Guchol will rake Okinawa with its west quadrants, less dangerous and a tad smaller than the east quadrants, as seen in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest graphic.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect an upgrade at any time. Here’s the latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Onset of 35-mph winds: 5 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 10 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 4 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 86-mph winds, 121-mph gusts: 9 p.m.-midnight Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph: 3 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph: 3 p.m. Tuesday.
Yokosuka Naval Base remains in TCCOR 4; other Kanto Plain bases remain all clear for the moment. Yokosuka’s weather unit calls for southeasterly winds of 20 to 25 mph with 35-mph gusts by late Tuesday afternoon, increasing to 30 to 40 mph with 50-mph gusts overnight into Wednesday.
Sasebo Naval Base (267 miles southeast at 1 p.m. Tuesday) and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni (238 miles southeast at 6 p.m. Tuesday) continue to appear to be well out of harm’s way. Sasebo’s weather unit calls for north-northeasterly winds between 25 and 35 mph with 45-mph gusts Tuesday morning, decreasing rapidly by evening.
1 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Another wind timeline update from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 (expect that to change this afternoon), and Guchol remains forecast to roar 76 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base around 9 p.m. Monday:
-- Onset of 35-mph winds: 3 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 9 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 86-mph sustained winds, 121-mph gusts: Between 8 and 11 p.m. Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph: 3 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph: 3 p.m. Tuesday.
PST will alert you to any TCCOR changes.
12:30 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Looks like Super Typhoon Guchol’s forecast track keeps edging ever closer to Okinawa, 76 miles east-southeast at 9 p.m. Monday. Also, it appears as if it will retain typhoon strength as it rumbles past the Kanto Plain on Wednesday, so the Tokyo area should also brace for wet, gusty weather.
Yokosuka Naval Base entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 6 a.m. Sunday, and according to its weather page, that should change by 7 a.m. Monday, perhaps sooner if Guchol moves faster than forecast.
Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 early afternoon Sunday. At closest point of approach to Okinawa, Guchol will be packing Category 5-equivalent 150-mph sustained winds and 185-mph gusts at its center. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s wind forecast timeline reads:
-- Onset of 35-mph winds: 6 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 9 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 75-mph sustained winds, 104-mph gusts: 8 p.m. Monday-2 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph: 6 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph: 3 p.m. Tuesday.
This could vary as Guchol approaches and the track varies in one direction or another.
As for the Kanto Plain, Guchol is forecast to still be packing 92-mph sustained and 115-mph gusts at its center as it roars 28 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka, 48 miles south-southeast of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 60 miles south of Yokota at 9 a.m. Wednesday and 70 miles southeast of Camp Fuji at 8 a.m. Keep tuned to your base Facebook pages, official base pages and commander’s access TV channels for updates.
Sasebo Naval Base (246 miles southeast at noon Tuesday) and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni (220 miles southeast at 5 p.m. Tuesday) still appear to be out of harm’s way; no accelerated TCCORs declared there.
