Tropical Storm 18W (Roke), # 23; TCCOR-3 set for Yokosuka, Atsugi
Published: September 16, 2011
4:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 set for Yokosuka Naval Base at 4:04 p.m. Monday and Naval Air Facility Atsugi at 6 p.m.
12:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Tropical Storm Roke has slowed down some; closest point of approach to the Kanto now forecast for 7 p.m. Wednesday, 20 miles west of Yokota Air Base, Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 40 miles west of Yokosuka. It’s a relatively small storm in terms of diameter, but it will still pack a mean wallop, sustained 58-mph winds and 81-mph gusts at its center. Yokosuka’s local forecast calls for winds to pick up starting Tuesday, 18 to 23 mph sustained and 30-mph gusts, increasing to 23-28 and 35 mid-morning Wednesday, 30-35 and 50 by early afternoon and 35-40 and 55 by evening.
10:45 a.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 10:31 a.m., according to the Fleet Activities Yokosuka Web page. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 72 hours. Time to initiate a general cleanup around your office and home.
8:30 a.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Tropical Storm Roke should (finally) make its closest point of approach to Okinawa this morning, some 150 miles east at 9 a.m., after which it’s forecast to start picking up steam and racing toward the Tokyo area. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track calls for Roke to plow virtually right over Yokota Air Base, Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama at 6 p.m. Wednesday, packing 63-mph winds and 81-mph gusts at its center as it rolls through rather rapidly. Yokosuka Naval Base local forecast calls for winds to increase to 20 to 25 mph with 35-mph gusts Tuesday morning, then to 30 to 35 mph with 50-mph gusts by mid-day Wednesday.
7:45 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 18, Japan time: Tropical Storm Roke should remain a nuisance to Okinawa for another day or so, but Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts continue to call for it to become a straight runner right at the Tokyo area come Wednesday afternoon, which will likely give Yokosuka Naval Base and other Kanto Plain bases a double dose of wind and rain this week.
No advisories or warnings are in effect and Yokosuka remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All-Clear as of Sunday evening. Yokosuka’s forecast calls for winds increase to 18 to 23 mph with gusts as high as 30 associated with Typhoon Sonca this evening before settling down to light and variable tomorrow, then increasing to 20 to 25 mph with 35-mph gusts by mid-week.
JTWC calls for Roke to roar virtually right over Kanto at 5 p.m. Wednesday, packing Category 1-equivalent 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts. PST is on top of it.
3:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 18, Japan time: Okinawa reverted to seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 10:46 a.m. Sunday. Still looking at sustained 17-mph winds and 30-mph gusts between noon and 9 p.m. Monday, with 1½ inches of rain forecast through 3 p.m. Tuesday.
Roke should then pick up speed toward the northeast, making a beeline for the Tokyo area just after midnight Wednesday, packing severe tropical storm-strength sustained 70-mph winds and 86-mph gusts as it rolls through rather quickly.
Prior to that, Typhoon Sonca should give the Kanto area a dusting of wind gusting to 30 mph on Monday with some showers from the storm’s outer bands. A small-craft warning remains in effect.
Midnight Saturday, Sept. 17, Japan time: Interesting scenario is unfolding, both around Okinawa and the Kanto Plain in the upcoming days.
Sonca was upgraded to a Category 1 typhoon early Saturday evening, heading northwest and is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to curve northeast past the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area early Monday morning, packing sustained 75-mph winds and 92-mph gusts at its center.
But the distance from land (nearly 200 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at 3 a.m. Monday) means the area will likely experience gusty winds and showers from Sonca’s west quadrants. A small-craft warning is in effect until 2 a.m. Monday.
Local Yokosuka forecasts call for winds increasing to 18-23 mph sustained with 30-mph gusts on Sunday, decreasing by Monday and becoming light and variable.
On the other hand, Roke, long a case study for the most unusual of weather systems, continues to languish east of Okinawa, forecast to pass 160 miles east of Kadena Air Base at 2 a.m. Monday. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 and will likely remain that way; forecasts call for maximum sustained 35-mph winds and 46-mph gusts between 9 p.m. Sunday and 9 a.m. Monday, with up to 7 inches of rain.
It’s what Roke is projected to do after that. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Roke to become a straight runner northeast, barreling right over the Tokyo area around 11 a.m. Thursday, still a significant tropical storm with sustained 63-mph winds and 81-mph gusts at its center.
PST will keep a lookout.
10:45 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 17, Japan time: Forecast has changed somewhat; Tropical Storm Roke is now forecast to start skedaddling northeast from Okinawa by Wednesday. Latest wind forecast timeline calls for peak 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. Monday, with 5 to 7 inches of rain. PST will let you know if anything changes. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.