Tropical Storm 05W (Guchol), # 32; Tropical Storm 06W (Talim), # 3
Published: June 19, 2012
7 p.m. Tuesday, June 19, Japan time: Guchol was downgraded to a tropical storm as it rapidly pushed ashore at midafternoon Tuesday southeast of Kyoto and Osaka in Japan’s Kansai region. It’s now making its way through the mountain ranges of Central Honshu, giving the Kanto Plain area a good dusting as it plows northeast at 41 mph toward its eventual demise.
Guchol should degrade into a severe tropical depression overnight, packing 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at its center as it rumbles 115 miles northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, 92 miles northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama, 84 miles northwest of Yokota and 51 miles northeast of Camp Fuji between midnight Tuesday and 2 a.m. Wednesday.
Yokosuka remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1, until 3 p.m. Wednesday. Expect winds there to pick up to 35- to 45-mph sustained and 55-mph gusts by late evening into Wednesday morning, decreasing to 25 to 30 mph with 40-mph gusts by late morning and 20 to 25 mph with 35-mph gusts by Wednesday evening.
Atsugi remains in TCCOR 3 and does not anticipate upgrading, according to the base’s Facebook page. Winds should pick up to 35- to 40-mph sustained with 46-mph gusts lasting until aroun d7 a.m. Wednesday. Between 4 and 6 inches of rainfall are anticipated.
If it survives that long, Guchol is forecast to pass 25 miles south of Misawa Air Base, with mild tropical-depression winds of 23 mph sustained and 35-mph gusts.
As for our good buddy Talim to the southwest, it’s still forecast to skirt China’s southeast coast and weave its way between China and Taiwan before peaking at 52-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts at around 3 p.m. Thursday; its closest point of approach to Okinawa is forecast for 225 miles northwest at 1 p.m. Thursday.
Talim should then make like a race-car driver and pick up rapid pace toward Sasebo Naval Base (72 miles south at 1 a.m. Friday) and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni (55 miles south at 3 a.m. Friday), by which point it will downgrade to tropical-depression status. Officials at Sasebo said they'd meet Wednesday to discuss preparations, if any are needed.
By the time it reaches the Kanto Plain, it should be packing only 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at its center, but it will be skimming Honshu’s west coast, 112 miles northwest of Yokota, 125 miles northwest of Zama and Atsugi, 104 miles north of Camp Fuji and 144 miles northwest of Yokosuka between 5 and 8 p.m. Friday.