By Dave Ornauer
Published: May 14, 2012
From Pacific Storm Tracker’s archives, summer 2011. Particularly for new folks who weren't on Okinawa during Typhoons Muifa in August and Songda in May, but also to reinforce what old Asia hands like me already know, here are some links to valuable resources, a much-more detailed guide to typhoon preparedness, frequently asked questions about what to do and not do during storms, especially why not to mess with the eye of a storm.
Part II of this series, coming in a few days, will deal with social networking, and how it can be a vital link to getting immediate information on tropical cyclones from official sources … and how the rumour mill can impede that flow of information thanks to unofficial sources who might have just a piece of the whole puzzle, but not all of it.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: May 13, 2012
By now, in the run-up to the upcoming northwest Pacific typhoon season, those new to Okinawa or Guam may have heard or seen the term TCCOR, which stands for tropical cyclone condition of readiness.
Old hat to many long-timers or greybeards such as I, but to reinforce what you already know, here’s a primer on what those TCCORs mean, and what to do once each of them is declared, in order, as a typhoon nears your location.
This is Part I of a series of blog posts designed to get you ready for the upcoming typhoon season, what to do, where to go and how to prepare when one of those nasty things starts bearing down on you.
FYI, Okinawa enters seasonal TCCOR 4 starting June 1 and exits it Nov. 30 each year, and Guam remains in seasonal TCCOR 4 year-round, because each location sits in the area where tropical cyclones are apt to form. I remember one in September 2003, which formed right over Okinawa, which went from TCCOR 4 to 1 almost instantly, and caused a run on the Foster Shoppette.
Once storms form and begin their track toward land masses such as Okinawa, the 18th Wing Weather Flight keeps close watch on them, recommending accelerated TCCORs when they feel appropriate to the 18th Wing commanding officer, who speaks in one voice for the island when he actually issues the accelerated TCCORs.
The only exception is when TCCOR All-Clear is declared or the island reverts back to seasonal TCCOR 4. All-Clear is also subject to conditions on each base; some might delay reverting to All-Clear if there are still power lines or tree limbs damaged that haven’t been hauled away.
Other areas of the Pacific don’t endure storms as strong as the ones on Guam and Okinawa, but they can still be destructive; ask those in the Kanto Plain who suffered through Typhoon Roke last September, which pounded Honshu’s east coast with 65-mph winds, the strongest to hit the Tokyo area in decades.
Here we go:
TCCOR 4 – Destructive winds of 58 mph (50 nautical mph) or greater are possible within 72 hours. Now’s the time to stock up on food and storm supplies. Check your closet and cupboards. What’s in them? Do you need bottled water, non-perishable foods, a portable radio, extra batteries, pet food for your furry friends, diapers for the little ones?
TCCOR 3 – Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.
Begin a general cleanup around homes and office. Bring inside or tie down those bicycles to a concrete structure. Take down the trampoline and move it inside. Do the same with the hibachi or barbeque. Even plastic pails can become dangerous projectiles in a storm. Note: Do NOT tape windows; these days, windows of both on- and off-base structures are coated to protect from UV rays and are also designed to withstand sustained destructive winds for extended periods. Taping them might damage them. If you’ve not visited the PX or commissary, now’s the time to do so, to avoid the late rush.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: April 3, 2012
One would think a typhoon is pounding the Tokyo area, given weather forecasts and what the Kanto Plain has experienced/is experiencing on a wild, windy Tuesday. It's not a typhoon, though news reports are calling this the strongest storm to hit the capital since 1959.
"it just came out of nowhere," Nile C. Kinnick High School teacher and track coach Al Garrido said.
High-wind advisories are in effect through Wednesday evening. Military forecasts call for winds as high as 75 mph raking Yokosuka this evening, Wind gusts as high as 58 mph have been felt at Naval Air Facility Atsugi and 42-mph gusts at Yokota.
Some 300 flights were canceled, stranding thousands of passengers, and winds of 56 mph were forecast to rake Tokyo into the evening.
Locally, DODDS schools canceled spring sports practices and sent activities buses home early. Kanto Plain baseball doubleheaders pitting Kinnick at St. Mary's International and Zama American at Yokota were postponed; no makeup dates were announced.
As always where storms are concerned, if you've not done so, please take precautions around the home. Tie down or bring loose objects inside. Move automobiles into open areas away from threes.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 20, 2011
10:45 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 21, Japan time: Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Yokosuka Naval Base have downgraded to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All Clear; other bases should follow soon, if they’ve not already. They still caution folks to be careful moving around base; fallen trees and tree limbs, power lines, etc. Just drove from Yokota, where Allied Telesis is without power and will be down until 2 a.m., to downtown Tokyo, and the base looks like a typhoon hit it. Branches, limbs, whole trees knocked over, leaves everywhere. I’m told by a civilian facilities assessment manager at Atsugi that it’s worse there. Definitely one of the worst tropical storms I can ever remember up this way. PST signing off for now. Two-hour delay for students to go to school and residents to go to work at Atsugi; two-hour delay for Yokota students, but normal duty hours prevail on Thursday at Yokota.
7:45 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 21, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery) at 7:30 p.m. DO NOT GO OUT! Wait until assessment crews can view the damage and cleanup.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 19, 2011
11:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 20, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 set for Yokota Air Base, Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi at 9 p.m. Typhoon Roke is picking up forward speed, moving northeast at 16 mph and has intensified to a Category III-equivalent storm. But as it comes closer to land and interacts with temperatures in the high 60s in the Kanto area, Roke is forecast to lose strength, then make landfall over central Honshu, packing sustained 75-mph winds and 92-mph gusts, still a mean Category I-equivalent typhoon. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track has Roke plowing right over Yokota, 14 miles northwest of Atsugi and Zama and 33 miles northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base at 5 p.m. Wednesday. Local forecasts call for sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph and 65-mph gusts by early afternoon Wednesday, decreasing by late evening and diminishing by Thursday morning, with 3 to 6 inches of rain between 6 a.m. and 8 p.m. Wednesday.
5:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 20, Japan time: Already, massive amounts of rain are falling in central Honshu, with the Nagoya area getting the worst of it, and we're talking an area already saturated by heavy rain the last month. Japanese forecasts call for 20 inches, perhaps more, from Nagoya to Hamamatsu and beyond, and 10-plus inches in other parts of western and central Japan. Locally, Kanto Plain bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Local forecasts call for peak winds of 35 to 45 mph and gusts between 55 and 60 mph between noon and 9 p.m. Wednesday, with 3 to 5 inches of rain projected between 6 a.m. and 8 p.m. Wednesday. Roke should make its closest point of approach sometime around 5 p.m. Though interaction with land and cooler air might shred Roke to pieces, we'll still feel a severe tropical storm's punch. Not to be toyed with. Expect accelerated TCCOR to be issued later this evening. A pretty good time to visit the AutoPort and gas up and also the ATM, in case the power goes out.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 16, 2011
4:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 set for Yokosuka Naval Base at 4:04 p.m. Monday and Naval Air Facility Atsugi at 6 p.m.
12:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Tropical Storm Roke has slowed down some; closest point of approach to the Kanto now forecast for 7 p.m. Wednesday, 20 miles west of Yokota Air Base, Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 40 miles west of Yokosuka. It’s a relatively small storm in terms of diameter, but it will still pack a mean wallop, sustained 58-mph winds and 81-mph gusts at its center. Yokosuka’s local forecast calls for winds to pick up starting Tuesday, 18 to 23 mph sustained and 30-mph gusts, increasing to 23-28 and 35 mid-morning Wednesday, 30-35 and 50 by early afternoon and 35-40 and 55 by evening.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2011
2:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 17, Japan time: Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Although forecasts don’t call for Roke to develop beyond a middling to severe tropical storm, it will remain in Okinawa’s neighbourhood for awhile, almost as if it's grabbing a latte at a Starbucks in Mihama. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Roke to pass 23 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base at 6 p.m. Tuesday. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight forecast calls for maximum sustained 46-mph winds and 58-mph gusts between 6 p.m. Tuesday and 9 p.m. Wednesday, with 9 to 12 inches of rain. As for Tropical Storm Sonca, JTWC forecasts call for it to curve well to the east of the Kanto Plain as a severe tropical storm, well east of Yokosuka Naval Base at 9 p.m. Sunday. PST will continue to keep an eye on both.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 14, 2011
9:40 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Although destructive 58-mph sustained winds aren’t forecast, to be on the safe side, 18th Wing at Kadena Air Base set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 at 9 p.m. local time. Tropical Storm Roke is still forecast to rumble 12 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base at 10 p.m. Saturday. Kadena can expect 6 to 8 inches of rain through Tuesday, with peak sustained 46-mph winds and 58-mph gusts from 9 p.m. Saturday to 3 a.m. Sunday. As for Tropical Storm Sonca, it’s curved to the northeast and the Tokyo area may feel a gust or two and a few rainshowers come early next week.
11 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Boy, traffic is starting to pick up on Typhoon Freeway. In addition to Tropical Storm Roke rumbling toward Okinawa, a new tropical depression spawned southeast of Iwo Jima overnight Wednesday. It’s forecast to curve 205 miles east of Yokosuka Naval Base at 7 a.m. Tuesday; possible for the Kanto Plain to experience showers and gusty winds for a day or so. As far as Roke, it’s forecast to make a near-direct hit on Kadena Air Base at 10 p.m. Saturday. Okinawa can expect 6 to 8 inches of rain accompanied by 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts between 9 p.m. Saturday and 3 a.m. Sunday. PST keeping an eye on things and will post any changes.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 12, 2011
11 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 14, Japan time: Tropical Storm Roke will affect Okinawa early next week, but will take a rather roundabout way of getting there. Currently headed northeast, Roke is forecast to make a sharp turn northwest, head that way for a couple of days, then hook southwest right over Okinawa Sunday night into Monday as a severe tropical storm. Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight forecast calls for damaging winds of 58 mph or greater from 3 a.m. Monday to 9 p.m. Tuesday, with peak winds of 81 mph around 5 p.m. Monday, with between 12 to 15 inches of rain.
10:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 13, Japan time: The game has changed. Tropical Depression 18W has made a sharp turn east, pushing back the wind timeline for Okinawa at least a day and diminishing the wind forecast markedly. Okinawa can now expect peak sustained 35-mph winds and 46-mph gusts around 3 p.m. Sunday; closest point of approach is 82 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base at 3 p.m. Sunday. Again, the computer forecast models aren’t in full agreement, so this could change. Rapidly.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 11, 2011
8:15 p.m. Monday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Latest weather forecast timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight calls for 58-mph sustained winds between 7 p.m. Thursday-4 p.m. Friday, maximum 75-mph gusts from 3-8 a.m. Friday. Closest point of approach now forecast for 35 miles southwest of Kadena at 7 a.m. Friday. Computer forecast models still not in agreement, though; this could change.
1 p.m. Monday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Updated wind timeline from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight forecasts sustained 40-mph winds and 52-mph gusts between 3 a.m. and 1 p.m. Friday, with closest point of approach now projected to be 55 miles southwest of Kadena at 4 a.m. Friday.
