Israeli analysts believe extremists tied
to bin Laden pose threat in Balkans
By Ward Sanderson,
Stars and Stripes
An intelligence analysis service reports that extremists loyal to Osama bin Laden plan
to spark new fighting in the Balkans to counter any U.S. or allied strikes on Afghanistan.
The report by an Israeli intelligence wire says about 6,000 fighters in Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Kosovo, Albania and Macedonia are ready to do bin Laden’s bidding if
America strikes his camps elsewhere.
"We are looking very carefully at what’s going on [in the Balkans]. … It
can be used as a second front," said Giora Shamis, the DEBKAfile editor in Jerusalem.
Shamis said that since U.S. strikes on Afghanistan appear imminent, the Balkans could
well become the place for attempts at vengeance against Western forces.
"If it’s going to hit bad [in Afghanistan], it’s probably also going to
hit in the Balkans more than any other place," he said in a telephone interview.
The DEBKAfile analysis comes on the heels of Croat nationalists’ claims that bin
Laden runs jihad training bases in Bosnia. Bosnia’s government has vowed to
investigate, though international officials are skeptical such camps exist.
Any Balkan movement against America is allegedly the work of Ayman al-Zawahri, an
Egyptian deputy to bin Laden. DEBKAfile reported that intelligence sources believe
al-Zawahri was in Tirana, Albania, to organize such a force. It would draw upon members of
the Albanian underworld as well as Islamic extremists there and in Kosovo.
"Not Arabs," Shamis said. "These are Muslims living in the area."
One U.S. government employee, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that during
visits to Tirana, locals confirmed that forces loyal to bin Laden camped in the hills.
Peacekeeping officials, however, often dismiss such claims as wild rumor.
Military sources would not comment on this latest report.
A Pentagon spokesman said the United States is in the midst of its own
intelligence-gathering effort and can’t jeopardize it.
"We don’t discuss intelligence, especially considering what happened,"
said Army Maj. Tim Blair, referencing the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon.
"More often than not, just based on operational security, we’re going to err on
not discussing things."
Blair cited Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld’s promise that he would not lie
to the media, but would remain tight-lipped about operations and intelligence.
An officer in the Balkans answered likewise when asked about the Israeli analysis.
"I’m not going to confirm that," said Canadian forces’ Capt. Daryl
Morrell, spokesman for international peacekeepers in Sarajevo.
"We’re here to provide a safe and secure environment — and any terrorism
or assistance to terrorism is inconsistent with a safe and secure environment."
Morrell said the international Stabilization Force is aware that foreign Islamic
fighters, or Mujahideen, left over from the war still live in Bosnia. But he characterized
them as responsible citizens who have since married locals and stay out of trouble.
There have been incidents, however, of former Mujahideen threatening peacekeepers,
including generals, during visits to enclaves under their control. There are about 420
naturalized Arabs in Bosnia, according to its Ministry of Civil Affairs and
Communications.
Army Maj. Rob Palmer, a spokesman for U.S. forces in Bosnia, said last week that the
military keeps its eye on extremist groups, but denied the Mujahideen are particularly
threatening.
The DEBKAfile report projects that a nucleus of bin Laden followers in the Balkans
could balloon into an army of about 40,000 men — a number that seems huge considering
the help Muslims in the Balkans have received from the West.
"We’re talking about a speculative situation," Shamis said.
He said his sources are on the ground in the Balkans, and not just in offices
somewhere. The actual analysis report refers to them simply as "military
sources."
Shamis’ intelligence analyses have proved frighteningly accurate in the past, as
the pre-eminent weekly, The New York Observer, pointed out in an article Friday.
It stated that on Sept. 22, wire services like The Associated Press moved reports on
how helpful Saudi Arabia was being in the U.S. war on terror.
DEBKA, however, scooped the West by reporting the country’s refusal to let America
use an air operations command center at Prince Sultan Air Base.
Two days later, the New York Times ran a similar story.
"At its best, Debka.com reads like a tip sheet from the desert, from people who
seem to know a lot more than [CNN’s] Jeff Greenfield," the Observer concluded.
Before his intelligence-wire days, Shamis wrote on Middle Eastern affairs for daily
newspapers and The Economist newsmagazine.
If Shamis is right this time, U.S. and allied forces around Afganistan could meet
resistance from more than just the Taliban.
DEBKAfile’s report also warned that about 3,000 Islamic rebels from Chechnya may
have begun crossing into nearby Georgia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to prepare for
counterstrikes.
Ivana Avramovic in Bosnia contributed to this report.
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