U.S.-Uzbekistan alliance may have
its risks, some observers say
By Scott Schonauer,
Stars and Stripes
The Uzbek government agreeing to host 1,000 U.S. troops in the war against terrorism is
considered a good deal for the Pentagon.
The former Soviet state has relatively modern military bases, it shares a border with
Afghanistan and the government’s authoritarian control means little resistance or
anti-American sentiment on the streets.
But the alliance has its risks, Western observers say.
First, it could put Uzbekistan at greater risk of attack from the Taliban or Islamic
extremists based in Afghanistan.
The ruling Taliban has vowed retaliation against neighbors that help the United States
in its military campaign. They could invade from either the Taliban-controlled area along
the Uzbek border or launch an attack through Turkmenistan, analysts say.
But the greatest risk to Uzbekistan could come from within its own borders, according
to the California-based Center for Nonproliferation Studies. As the U.S.-led bombing
enters its fourth week, the Uzbek government could face opposition from Islamic extremists
living in the country.
If President Islam Karimov uses an alliance with the United States to expand his
repressive domestic policies, he could drive the country’s overwhelming Muslim
majority or the poor to support opposition groups, according to Kenley Butler, a research
associate with the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, in an Oct. 11 article.
Another hazard to greater U.S.-Uzbek military cooperation is the affect it could have
on Russian relations with both countries. Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union
in 1991, the Uzbek government has tried to distance itself from Russia and quietly work
toward a better relationship with the United States.
Moscow is "less than pleased" with Uzbekistan’s overtures to become an
ally with the United States, said a Western observer who spoke on condition of anonymity.
If U.S. troops remain in Uzbekistan for years instead of months, it could harm U.S.-Russia
relations, analysts say.
The greatest danger, perhaps, to Uzbekistan is that if the U.S.-led military campaign
in Afghanistan fails, it would face greater instability in Central Asia.
"That," the observer said, "would be a nightmare."
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