Outcome of S. Korean by-election
seen as setback in thaw with North
By Jim Lea, Osan bureau chief
South Korea’s major opposition Grand National Party captured all three seats in a
National Assembly by-election on Thursday, which could signal rough times for inter-Korean
relations, some analysts say.
It also could make it difficult for President Kim Dae-jung to maintain his
"Sunshine Policy" toward North Korea during his final year in office.
A GNP spokesman said in a statement on Friday that the win was "an expression of
public anger over government corruption and its attack on the press."
Earlier this year the government ordered a tax audit — often used over the years
in South Korea as a government weapon to silence opposition — of major news
organizations, resulting in the arrest of several media officials on evasion charges. Kim
has said the audit strictly concerned alleged illegalities.
Winning the three parliamentary seats puts the opposition party within one seat of a
majority in the 271-seat assembly.
The loss for Kim’s ruling Millennium Democratic Party comes at a particularly bad
time, with relations between the two Koreas worsening.
After an initial flurry of relationship improvements following last year’s first
meeting between leaders of the two counties, the momentum waned then ground to a halt
after President Bush’s inauguration in January.
Caustic comments by Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell about North Korean leader
Kim Jong Il and his regime and a comprehensive review of Washington’s policy toward
the North miffed Pyongyang.
Pyongyang halted all official contact with Seoul in March. That contact was
re-established in September with a fifth ministerial-level conference between the two
countries, a meeting to discuss sending South Korean tourists to the North, and plans for
another reunion between families separated by the Korean War.
But Pyongyang canceled the reunion, saying a military alert in the South called
following the Sept. 11 terrorism attacks in the United States made it too dangerous to
send North Koreans to the South to meet their relatives. In retaliation, Seoul canceled a
second meeting on the tourism project.
Now, the two countries are in a tug-of-war over the venue for the next
ministerial-level meeting scheduled to begin Sunday. Seoul says it should be held in
Pyongyang as planned; Pyongyang said it should be held at the Mount Kumgang National Park
where, it said, security can be provided more easily.
Pyongyang also said that since it’s hosting the meeting, it can set the venue.
The South considers ministerial meetings to be important toward reconciliation and
eventual unification. But Sunday’s talks probably will be canceled or, at least,
postponed unless Seoul gives in to Pyongyang’s demand. That could throw relations
awry, especially with the political opposition in a stronger parliamentary position.
The Grand National Party has opposed Kim’s policy of engagement rather than
confrontation with the North. The GNP calls that policy too weak and claims Kim has made
too many concessions to Pyongyang without demanding reciprocity.
Kim has just as doggedly held the course, however, losing public support as a result.
"Of course anything is possible in politics, but it’s not likely that the
administration will give in to North Korea’s demands on the ministerial talks
venue," said Gerald Lee, who heads a private, conservative think tank, the Foundation
for National Strategy and Culture Studies. "If the administration backs down, it will
only result in more attacks by the GNP."
He added that with the GNP in a stronger parliamentary position, it will be difficult
for Kim to get approval for money to finance South Korean aid to the North. That, too,
would throw a chill on relations and slow the reconciliation process, he said.
Bae Gi-chul contributed to this report.
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