Japanese experts say Bush's
comments
unlikely to increase U.S.-China tensions
By Chiyomi Sumida, Stars and Stripes
President
George W. Bush’s strong verbal support of Taiwan last week is unlikely to increase
tensions between the United States and China, say Japanese political experts.
"I
think President Bush wanted to stress how strong U.S. commitment to Taiwan is," said
Masaaki Gabe, professor of international politics at the University of the Ryukyus.
"Although it would provoke China, I do not believe it would directly lead to military
tension between U.S. and China.
"The
U.S. president said that he would defend Taiwan with whatever it took. But this statement
shows no difference in the U.S. stance on this issue."
No American
president has backed down from the position that the United States would defend Taiwan,
Gabe said.
Philip T.
Reeker, State Department deputy spokesman, said last week that Bush’s comments were
not a change of U.S. policy.
"Our
policy hasn’t changed today, it didn’t change yesterday, it didn’t change
last year, it hasn’t changed in terms of what we have followed since 1979 with the
passage of the Taiwan Relations Act.,"
he said.
Gabe thinks
Bush’s comments are part of the U.S.-China tug of war over the sale of Aegis missile
technology and the recovery of the EP-3E aircraft. China has refused to release the
surveillance aircraft, involved in a collision with a Chinese fighter April 1.
Amid this
tug of war, he said, the United States compromised when it decided not to sell Aegis to
Taiwan.
Bush had to
use the stronger wording to emphasize the U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s defense, Gabe
said. "The U.S. must have felt a need to verbally assure Taiwan of the U.S.’
strong commitment," he said.
Gabe does
not anticipate any changes in U.S. and China relations despite Bush’s strong wording.
"The
tensions were actually about to increase when the U.S. was considering selling Aegis to
Taiwan," he said. "The U.S. and China are disputing only verbally. No Americans
would say that the U.S. should start a war with China."
But that
does not lessen the concern about U.S.-China relations, Gabe said.
"What
is more important and needing careful observation is how or if the relations between China
and Taiwan change," he said. With the United States behind it, Taiwan might stiffen
its attitude toward China.
Although
Gabe does not see any imminent crisis in the relations between the two great powers, the
fragile balance can change quickly.
If
accidents such as the EP-3 incident increase, tensions could escalate, he said. Military
exercises could trigger tension if they are stepped up, he added.
"Under
the present circumstances, routine exercise could be interpreted differently by
China," Gabe said.
Yukio
Okamoto, director of a Tokyo-based foreign policy think tank, echoed Gabe’s comments.
Bush’s comments do not indicate any changes in U.S. policy to Taiwan, said Okamoto, a
former special adviser to former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto.
"Because
it was a comment made by President Bush, the influence is immense," he said. He
doesn’t believe the statements will be detrimental to U.S.-Chinese relations.
"Tensions
might be heightened temporarily," Okamoto said. "But in the entire balance of
their relations, it will be a short-lived episode."
However,
Okamoto warned, if comments persist, "China might make a diplomatic
countermove," he said.
Meanwhile,
officials of both national and local governments remain silent on this issue. An official
of the public relations office for the Japanese Foreign Ministry said the Japanese
government would not make any comment because this is a matter between the United States
and China. Comment from the minister of the defense agency was not available due to
Cabinet reshuffling late Thursday evening.
Okinawa
Gov. Keiichi Inamine’s office offered no comment. The mayor of Ishigaki, Japan’s
southernmost city and the closest Japanese neighbor of Taiwan, told Stars and Stripes that
he refrained from comment.
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